If not Madson, then who?
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If not Madson, then who?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
The issue of who is closing games for the Phillies in 2012 figures to be one that lingers deep into the winter. The market is flush with closing options and it could take some time before the first team blinks, signs one to a lucrative contract, and sets the market value.
In Sunday's Inquirer, we wrote about the dilemma the Phillies face. Ruben Amaro Jr. has made few things clear in the weeks following the Phillies' defeat, but one was that he craves a veteran closer for his staff.
They would like Ryan Madson to be that pitcher. Of course, forming a match between the two sides is easier said than done.
So what else is there? A passage from Sunday's column:
With Madson, Jonathan Papelbon stands at the top of the class. But after Boston's historic tumble and tumultuous fallout, they will be a team desperate for stability and familiarity. Papelbon is probably staying there.
Heath Bell is a player the Phillies took interest in at the trade deadline. But Bell remained in San Diego and has openly spoken about his desire to stay. The Padres have already extended a two-year offer with an option for a third season, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. If there is no agreement there, Bell could still accept salary arbitration and return on a one-year deal.
So that leaves names like Francisco Rodriguez, a type of personality the Phillies have steered clear from in recent years; Jonathan Broxton, a pitcher the Phillies would rather face than acquire; Joe Nathan, 37 years old and only 44 innings removed from major surgery; Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch, who split duties in Toronto; and Matt Capps, who had the second highest ERA of any pitcher with at least 15 saves.
Of that group, Nathan is an intriguing name. He's effectively in the same situation as Brad Lidge. Both are recently removed from serious injuries. Both have $12.5 million options that will be declined. Both have seen better days.
So why not just bring Lidge back if we're talking about Nathan? Well, for one, Nathan still can throw his fastball. His average velocity was 92.3 m.p.h.; a few ticks off from 2009 (93.6 m.p.h.). Lidge's average fastball velocity was 88.9 m.p.h.; a 5.4 m.p.h. average drop from the magical 2008 season.
More importantly, Lidge decided he would simply not throw his fastball. He threw 71.9 percent sliders, by far the most of any pitcher in the majors. Lidge's 90 percent strand rate in 2011 was admirable, but most likely not sustainable for a period greater than 19 1/3 innings.
Nathan is no longer a ground ball pitcher and his home run rate spiked in 2011. When he was at his best in 2007-08, he induced a high rate of grounders. And 11.5 percent of the fly balls he allowed in 2011 went for home runs. That's a staggering rate that could normalize. Or being in Citizens Bank Park could exacerbate it.
Nathan would be cheap. He could be the stopgap for a few months while one of the younger arms builds trust with the staff and assumes the closer role later in the season. Any of those other free agent closers would command more money and possibly more than one year. That's an investment, given the strength of the young relief corps, the Phillies need not make.
What about other relievers available who weren't closers in 2010? The Rays executed that philosophy to perfection last winter. They signed a handful of veteran relievers on the cheap and let them compete for the closer's job. Kyle Farnsworth, who had all of one save in the previous four seasons combined, saved 25 games with a 2.18 ERA.
Nathan's K/9 and BB/9 compares with the traits the Rays sought in available free agents last winter. Only five possible free agent relievers (minimum 40 innings) posted a K/9 greater than 8.0 and a BB/9 less than 3.0: Madson, Papelbon, Nathan, Octavio Dotel and Yoshinori Tateyama.
Thirty-two total relievers posted a K/9 greater than 8.0 and BB/9 less than 3.0 and Nathan's 4.84 ERA is the worst by far among the group. That, you'd think, would mean he's due for a better clip if he maintains his peripheral stats. Or it means he's cooked.
Hey, maybe Amaro can coax Billy Wagner from retirement. (That's actually sort of a serious idea.)
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
These are great "articles" that have been beaten like a rented mule (just a phrase folks, don't go PETA on me). Madsen will NOT be a Philly in 2012..take that to the bank, wrap it up in hermetically sealed cases...not going to happen. RAJ will NOT get into a bidding war against himself with Scott Boris. Some team will vastly overpay for Madsen's services a la Jayson OverWERTH. Boris Clients NEVER sign before hitting the open market and ALWAYS go to the highest bidder as Boris guilts his clients into not settling to lower the market ceiling. Heath Bell is the logical choice here. Bell has toiled in San Diego and almost (within one game) got to the post season in 2010 (woulda helped the Phillies not face SF). Bell is a personality who would liven up this clubhouse and closes games with intensity. K-Rod is NOT a closer anymore. His hurky-jerky motion has taken a toll on his fastball and he never had great command. The high wire act of walking two, double play, base hit, strike out to close out a game is so old now (didn't we deal with this when Lidge "came back a few times"?). I know RAJ would like to work within the system and even consider a healthy Contraras (who, btw, closed great until his arm went array). The young arms ready to go just might not be ready to close...yet. There are great candidates who will be ready to close by 2013 (Philipe Aumont and his 97 mph pitch). Until, a proven closer is key if the 2012 version will compete.— drhoffman- These are great "articles" that have been beaten like a rented mule (just a phrase folks, don't go PETA on me). Madsen will NOT be a Philly in 2012..take that to the bank, wrap it up in hermetically sealed cases...not going to happen. RAJ will NOT get into a bidding war against himself with Scott Boris. Some team will vastly overpay for Madsen's services a la Jayson OverWERTH. Boris Clients NEVER sign before hitting the open market and ALWAYS go to the highest bidder as Boris guilts his clients into not settling to lower the market ceiling. Heath Bell is the logical choice here. Bell has toiled in San Diego and almost (within one game) got to the post season in 2010 (woulda helped the Phillies not face SF). Bell is a personality who would liven up this clubhouse and closes games with intensity. K-Rod is NOT a closer anymore. His hurky-jerky motion has taken a toll on his fastball and he never had great command. The high wire act of walking two, double play, base hit, strike out to close out a game is so old now (didn't we deal with this when Lidge "came back a few times"?). I know RAJ would like to work within the system and even consider a healthy Contraras (who, btw, closed great until his arm went array). The young arms ready to go just might not be ready to close...yet. There are great candidates who will be ready to close by 2013 (Philipe Aumont and his 97 mph pitch). Until, a proven closer is key if the 2012 version will compete.— drhoffman
- Doc...you mean Madson and Boras don't you...
— stan the man too - @ Stan - LOL!! Our poor doctor is clueless. — justacarpenter
- don't eff around. bring madson back. if boras wants more than $11-12 per, then let him walk.— The Boston Strangler
- Mad-Son is the One...— stan the man too
- No one is paying Madsen 11-12 mil a year. Heath Bell is considering a 2 year 16 mil offer and he is in the same class as Madsen. The market is loaded with closers and the demand is not as great as the supply. Ruben needs to wait this out and he'll be able to get Madsen or another quality closer for around 6-8 mill.— anp27
- who cares? Just drop the Phils columns.
Still too angry to even think about them.
3 straight years they can't hit a lick in the postseason.
Take the whole freakin lineup and put them in a nursing home.
— Fan74 - That is a lot of closers on the market for one year, no?— beefbre
- Nathan is not a bad choice until one of the young guns (Bastardo, Aumont or DeFratus) develop into a real closer. If Nathan is cooked and none of the youngsters is ready to take the closer role, then go after Bell at the deadline. Obviously he doesn't want to leave San Diego, but after they sign him, he has no choice to accept the trade, unless he has a not trade clause, which I think San Diego won't go for, anyway.— EL Zorro
- how about a closer who can swing a good bat too. You know like maybe be able to hit to all sides of the field and can work a count too. This way he can take some pressure of the regulars.— power808
- As a transplanted Phillies fan in San Diego, Heath Bell is not a good choice for the Phils. His heart and life are here. Bell has openly spoke on radio talk shows he is willing to take a San Diego discount. Phils should keep elite status and re-sign Madson because he's the best out there.— Shibe1970
- Let's
Go
Rangers...
clap, clap, clap-clap-clap— Sam Crow - Didn't need a closer when you're losing game five, 1-0.... Whoops.
— jibberjabber - How'd you get to Game 5, genius? You had to have closed games all season long, that's how. Or have you forgotten the legacy of Billy Wagner? You don't evaluate an entire season nor prepare for the next one on the basis of one game in the play-offs, or even 5 games in the play-offs.
— pigday31 - Madson is the key so whatever it takes. Let the rest of those aging, injury prone, free agents walk. Only Madson would be missed and can't be replaced internally.— Dull
- They should not have resigned Gregg Gross or Juan Samuel. They could have done better than keeping those two. If they could hit and were not thrown out at he plate all the time, they could lower their sights for a closer.— richw38
- No brainer, lets give Bastardo a try— ziller0604
- What about Bastardo? He had struggles for a stretch but seemed to have figured it out.— burholme
- Bell works for me. NOT a prima donna like the Bosox guy. Nats almost sure to land Mad-guy and his wifey.— NewMick314
- Mad dog isn't going to DC. His wife is the one who is going to decide where they end up. She's a Calif stickrider. I bet they end up in Anaheim or LA. — justacarpenter
- Paplebon is whithout a doubt the best closer since whenever. He gets NL and Al batters out with amazing fst ball and great breaking stuff.
He is the answer if Madson walks. Totally agree that Gross should have been given a bus ticket elsewhere. He did zero and from all talk cannot talk to the players one on one about his job and theirs-"hitting"— thechief - Sign Nathan AND trade for Soria.— T-Money
- Lights Out Lidge, baby. The stupid, old fool's favorite.— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- I'd prefer to keep Madson. He doesn't save every game, but he's good most of the time. Contreras is also very good most of the time. Together they would be fine. I have no interest whatsoever n keeping Lidge. Stick the fork in.— 4thand10
- If Madson asks for too much, let him walk. He's not a hammer , and using him on more than two games in a row hurts him. Even if he signs, the Phillies should still pursue another good reliever who could step into the closer roll .— phineas
- Closer is to protect a lead which means your scoring runs...duf— Lynnwood
- Can't believe with their terrible hitting they resigned Greg Gross!— slade1955
- Keep Madson. Just let his wife walk.— Lil Ratman
- What does it matter who they go after, This team is done for winning another World Series for at least 20 years.— eaglesman1
- As a life-long Phillies fan who happend to end up in Maine, I can't escape the Red Sox and their tiresome nation. I've watched Papelbon for years now and I can't stress enough-KEEP MADSON AT ALL COST! Papelbon is absolutely weak in clutch situations. I'd rather see Brad Lidge closing again. Do Not Sign Papelbon!!! He's also a moody egomaniac and if I have to watch him and his really tiresome mouth which forms an "O" before he delivers I'll have to injure myself!— sumtime08
- Let Madson walk and shake hands with 3rd place. Papelbon will very likely stay in Boston. Nathan was outstanding but that was a few years ago. Too many questions with him. Signing Madson will not be easy with Boras as his agent. The Madson cain't close blogs have stopped and a top closer is a necessity. There will be 45-50 games in the hands of a closer. Phills have to wind up with a top one. Nothing is guaranteed but Madson best choice. Hate to blog this but just short of whatever it takes to keep Ryan.— Don w
- Anybody know where the Phillies are playing golf tomorrow?— ricky008
- LOL!! ...I know they're not playing in Dallas! — justacarpenter
- You people got it all wrong except jibberjabber....What does a closer matter when the Phillies cant hit in the Post season and dont have a lead to save ??? This team lost the BIGGEST series & is the BIGGEST disappointment in Philadelphia sports history!!!— Bishop-X
- "Of that group, Nathan is an intriguing name. He's effectively in the same situation as Brad Lidge. Both have seen better days."
The same can be said about Jonathan Broxton. Not only will Broxton (27) be 10 years younger than Nathan when the 2012 season commences, but a change of scenery might do him good as well.
— PhightinPhil - See what the Red Sox want for Daniel Bard, particularly if Papelbon re-ups with Boston.— PhightinPhil
- Isn't Bastardo the clear answer here? Go get another lefty specialist. Much cheaper than a closer. Leave some financial wiggle room just in case a trade needs to be made at the deadline if things aren't working out.— Penfold18
- That's great, but can your buddy's step-mother close? What's her ERA?— Jamesallen
- Madson seems healthy and improving vs some of the others mentioned who are old, post injury or on the decline. Will be tough to let him go but will a team really sign him for 5 yrs and tens of millions? The J-roll issue is tough and I like him batting down in the order. Maybe use Victorino to trade for a CF/leadoff hitter and keep J-Roll for at most 3 yrs?— psuwelsh
- I'd take Broxton over Nathan if neither Papelbon or Bell could be had. Really, if you can't get Papelbon or Bell you may have to overpay for Madson or take a step down with the closer. The closest young arm who's ready is Bastardo but I don't think you can go with him yet. We have Contreras as the old guy who may be able to help. I see no point in signing Nathan -- he offers nothing over Contreras in my opinion. I'm on the fence with Broxton but I tend to agree with PhightinPhil: Broxton is young yet experienced and maybe a change of scenery would do him good. Broxton also has some velocity. He can hit 96-97 with his fastball. You want at least one guy who can throw hard in back end of the bullpen in my opinion.— s
- I'm of two minds here: First, yes, would love to see Madson back for 4 years, because even if he coughs up the closer spot, we know for sure how good he is at setting up. But let's pretend he signs elsewhere and we have: 1. Bastardo; 2. Contreras, healthy for 1 more year; and, 3. Lidge on a two-year, $7 million deal. Plus, we have bucks to spend on a 3B, SS and/or LF who can hit for average, preferably right-handed. Think about that. I submit that if 1-2-3 are true, Madson moving on is by no means a death sentence. The Rays didn't make the World Series but they have Kyle Farnsworth! as their closer for most of the year.— eman
- Bringing Wagner out of retirement is a serious idea?— VicM
- astros develop young players, ship em to us. we develop old players, ship em round the mlb. fair's fair. bye, mads. bye, jimmy. bad move going after so-called proven closers. they're all meshuga (except mariano, who's beyond reach), and not at all consistent. if we must keep blanton, have him test the closer role in clearwater. crazy myers wasn't all that bad the year he did it. blanton strikes as a similar kind of pitcher.— bubba church & granny hamner
- I'm with drhoffman, only I don't think Madson is a definitel loss. His agent is a jerk, but Madson is not. Madson also has set some roots in Philly, although his wife is squeamish about Philly fans... Bell is the ONLY other choice, though, so RAJ better have his ducks in a row...— BullZinski
- If the Phils need a veteran closer to serve as a bridge to the young guys (Bastardo, Aumont, Defratus), here's a crazy name to consider for a 1 or 2--year deal: Roy Oswalt.— clunkerlane
- Let Madson walk. He's the best on the market, but not worth Boras money. Sign lidge to a 1 year, incentive laiden contract to bridge the game to the young guys. I would rather have Lidge than Broxten or Nathon.— FetchDixon
- Between the wife and the agent, there is like zero chance of Madson sticking around. I say take a shot with Broxton until Bastardo is ready if his paycheck is reasonable.— Mr Mel
- Keep Madson or go with what you have. Amaro's geezer fetish has A). hurt the team since he's been on board and B). has been expensive. Madson didn't just hire Boras. He's had him all along and they negotiated a fair deal in his previous one.— jtj06
- suntime08, could not agree with you more, cant stand the dramatic slow, drawn-out raising of his head to glare with fire just under the brim of his cap just before he delivers a pitch that gets scorched for a go ahead run during a playoff push...— traymelvin
- Phils need to search for a reliever who will fill a role for a yr or so and not sign an overpriced retread like we had with Lidge. This market isn't value, so stay within your system and let the prospects develop while we make it with a no name. Our starting staff should be able to get us through most of the year until Bastardo, Stutes and ?? take charge.— walt1
- They definitely need to offer Madson arbitration(Rollins too)and then go from there. I wouldn't get into a bidding war for Madson; his best, most consistent seasons have been before he was due for a big raise.— 76erfn
- Madson is the best available option.— JimG
- i hope they understand how important Ryan Madson will be to this team next year. Do not sign Jimmy Rollins if he doesnt want to be here because we can go in another direction. The Phillies are gonna be in a lot more shootouts next year and Madson is gonna be key. Sign him.— Apollo Creed
I'd rather have Papelbon than Madson. Fear that Madson is a one-year wonder.
