If not Madson, then who?
The issue of who is closing games for the Phillies in 2012 figures to be one that lingers deep into the winter. The market is flush with closing options and it could take some time before the first team blinks, signs one to a lucrative contract, and sets the market value.
If not Madson, then who?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
The issue of who is closing games for the Phillies in 2012 figures to be one that lingers deep into the winter. The market is flush with closing options and it could take some time before the first team blinks, signs one to a lucrative contract, and sets the market value.
In Sunday's Inquirer, we wrote about the dilemma the Phillies face. Ruben Amaro Jr. has made few things clear in the weeks following the Phillies' defeat, but one was that he craves a veteran closer for his staff.
They would like Ryan Madson to be that pitcher. Of course, forming a match between the two sides is easier said than done.
So what else is there? A passage from Sunday's column:
With Madson, Jonathan Papelbon stands at the top of the class. But after Boston's historic tumble and tumultuous fallout, they will be a team desperate for stability and familiarity. Papelbon is probably staying there.
Heath Bell is a player the Phillies took interest in at the trade deadline. But Bell remained in San Diego and has openly spoken about his desire to stay. The Padres have already extended a two-year offer with an option for a third season, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. If there is no agreement there, Bell could still accept salary arbitration and return on a one-year deal.
So that leaves names like Francisco Rodriguez, a type of personality the Phillies have steered clear from in recent years; Jonathan Broxton, a pitcher the Phillies would rather face than acquire; Joe Nathan, 37 years old and only 44 innings removed from major surgery; Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch, who split duties in Toronto; and Matt Capps, who had the second highest ERA of any pitcher with at least 15 saves.
Of that group, Nathan is an intriguing name. He's effectively in the same situation as Brad Lidge. Both are recently removed from serious injuries. Both have $12.5 million options that will be declined. Both have seen better days.
So why not just bring Lidge back if we're talking about Nathan? Well, for one, Nathan still can throw his fastball. His average velocity was 92.3 m.p.h.; a few ticks off from 2009 (93.6 m.p.h.). Lidge's average fastball velocity was 88.9 m.p.h.; a 5.4 m.p.h. average drop from the magical 2008 season.
More importantly, Lidge decided he would simply not throw his fastball. He threw 71.9 percent sliders, by far the most of any pitcher in the majors. Lidge's 90 percent strand rate in 2011 was admirable, but most likely not sustainable for a period greater than 19 1/3 innings.
Nathan is no longer a ground ball pitcher and his home run rate spiked in 2011. When he was at his best in 2007-08, he induced a high rate of grounders. And 11.5 percent of the fly balls he allowed in 2011 went for home runs. That's a staggering rate that could normalize. Or being in Citizens Bank Park could exacerbate it.
Nathan would be cheap. He could be the stopgap for a few months while one of the younger arms builds trust with the staff and assumes the closer role later in the season. Any of those other free agent closers would command more money and possibly more than one year. That's an investment, given the strength of the young relief corps, the Phillies need not make.
What about other relievers available who weren't closers in 2010? The Rays executed that philosophy to perfection last winter. They signed a handful of veteran relievers on the cheap and let them compete for the closer's job. Kyle Farnsworth, who had all of one save in the previous four seasons combined, saved 25 games with a 2.18 ERA.
Nathan's K/9 and BB/9 compares with the traits the Rays sought in available free agents last winter. Only five possible free agent relievers (minimum 40 innings) posted a K/9 greater than 8.0 and a BB/9 less than 3.0: Madson, Papelbon, Nathan, Octavio Dotel and Yoshinori Tateyama.
Thirty-two total relievers posted a K/9 greater than 8.0 and BB/9 less than 3.0 and Nathan's 4.84 ERA is the worst by far among the group. That, you'd think, would mean he's due for a better clip if he maintains his peripheral stats. Or it means he's cooked.
Hey, maybe Amaro can coax Billy Wagner from retirement. (That's actually sort of a serious idea.)
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
These are great "articles" that have been beaten like a rented mule (just a phrase folks, don't go PETA on me). Madsen will NOT be a Philly in 2012..take that to the bank, wrap it up in hermetically sealed cases...not going to happen. RAJ will NOT get into a bidding war against himself with Scott Boris. Some team will vastly overpay for Madsen's services a la Jayson OverWERTH. Boris Clients NEVER sign before hitting the open market and ALWAYS go to the highest bidder as Boris guilts his clients into not settling to lower the market ceiling. Heath Bell is the logical choice here. Bell has toiled in San Diego and almost (within one game) got to the post season in 2010 (woulda helped the Phillies not face SF). Bell is a personality who would liven up this clubhouse and closes games with intensity. K-Rod is NOT a closer anymore. His hurky-jerky motion has taken a toll on his fastball and he never had great command. The high wire act of walking two, double play, base hit, strike out to close out a game is so old now (didn't we deal with this when Lidge "came back a few times"?). I know RAJ would like to work within the system and even consider a healthy Contraras (who, btw, closed great until his arm went array). The young arms ready to go just might not be ready to close...yet. There are great candidates who will be ready to close by 2013 (Philipe Aumont and his 97 mph pitch). Until, a proven closer is key if the 2012 version will compete.— drhoffman- These are great "articles" that have been beaten like a rented mule (just a phrase folks, don't go PETA on me). Madsen will NOT be a Philly in 2012..take that to the bank, wrap it up in hermetically sealed cases...not going to happen. RAJ will NOT get into a bidding war against himself with Scott Boris. Some team will vastly overpay for Madsen's services a la Jayson OverWERTH. Boris Clients NEVER sign before hitting the open market and ALWAYS go to the highest bidder as Boris guilts his clients into not settling to lower the market ceiling. Heath Bell is the logical choice here. Bell has toiled in San Diego and almost (within one game) got to the post season in 2010 (woulda helped the Phillies not face SF). Bell is a personality who would liven up this clubhouse and closes games with intensity. K-Rod is NOT a closer anymore. His hurky-jerky motion has taken a toll on his fastball and he never had great command. The high wire act of walking two, double play, base hit, strike out to close out a game is so old now (didn't we deal with this when Lidge "came back a few times"?). I know RAJ would like to work within the system and even consider a healthy Contraras (who, btw, closed great until his arm went array). The young arms ready to go just might not be ready to close...yet. There are great candidates who will be ready to close by 2013 (Philipe Aumont and his 97 mph pitch). Until, a proven closer is key if the 2012 version will compete.— drhoffman
- Doc...you mean Madson and Boras don't you...
— stan the man too - @ Stan - LOL!! Our poor doctor is clueless. — justacarpenter
- don't eff around. bring madson back. if boras wants more than $11-12 per, then let him walk.— The Boston Strangler
- Mad-Son is the One...— stan the man too
- No one is paying Madsen 11-12 mil a year. Heath Bell is considering a 2 year 16 mil offer and he is in the same class as Madsen. The market is loaded with closers and the demand is not as great as the supply. Ruben needs to wait this out and he'll be able to get Madsen or another quality closer for around 6-8 mill.— anp27
- who cares? Just drop the Phils columns.
Still too angry to even think about them.
3 straight years they can't hit a lick in the postseason.
Take the whole freakin lineup and put them in a nursing home.
— Fan74 - That is a lot of closers on the market for one year, no?— beefbre
- Nathan is not a bad choice until one of the young guns (Bastardo, Aumont or DeFratus) develop into a real closer. If Nathan is cooked and none of the youngsters is ready to take the closer role, then go after Bell at the deadline. Obviously he doesn't want to leave San Diego, but after they sign him, he has no choice to accept the trade, unless he has a not trade clause, which I think San Diego won't go for, anyway.— EL Zorro
- how about a closer who can swing a good bat too. You know like maybe be able to hit to all sides of the field and can work a count too. This way he can take some pressure of the regulars.— power808
- As a transplanted Phillies fan in San Diego, Heath Bell is not a good choice for the Phils. His heart and life are here. Bell has openly spoke on radio talk shows he is willing to take a San Diego discount. Phils should keep elite status and re-sign Madson because he's the best out there.— Shibe1970
- Let's
Go
Rangers...
clap, clap, clap-clap-clap— Sam Crow - Didn't need a closer when you're losing game five, 1-0.... Whoops.
— jibberjabber - How'd you get to Game 5, genius? You had to have closed games all season long, that's how. Or have you forgotten the legacy of Billy Wagner? You don't evaluate an entire season nor prepare for the next one on the basis of one game in the play-offs, or even 5 games in the play-offs.
— pigday31
