Howard's power and sabermetrics
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
Howard's power and sabermetrics
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Ryan Howard takes batting practice during the first week of spring Training. (Yong Kim/Staff Photographer)
CLEARWATER, Fla. -- The ankle, Ryan Howard says, is about 98 percent right now. So what condition was it in during the postseason?
"That doesn't really matter anymore now," Howard said this morning. "I'm not going to make any excuses about my ankle or anything like that."
No, but Howard's final numbers in 2010 certainly reflected the effect of the injury. He ended the season with 31 home runs and 108 RBIs, the lowest of his career since becoming a full-time regular. But counting numbers need not apply since Howard missed 19 days with a sprained left ankle. And following that return -- which may have been rushed -- Howard was not 100 percent.
Heck, he's not even 100 percent yet and it's February.
"It's funny to me because everyone talks about my power numbers," Howard said. "'Oh, Ryan, your power numbers were down.' I think everybody forgot I was out for a month, that I was hurt. I was right there with everybody on the leaderboard in home runs and RBIs. I don't really think that was an issue. I got hurt."
Again, as a reference:
2010 slugging percentage pre injury (407 AB): .528
2010 slugging percentage post injury (143 AB): .441
Career slugging percentage: .586
So yes, it is troubling that even before the injury, his slugging percentage was well below his career figures. But if we are to rely by mere counting numbers, had Howard not been injured, it's wholly possible he ends the season as the National League home run leader. (Albert Pujols finished with 42. Howard tied for eighth with 31.)
Interestingly enough, Howard accidently explained a principle of sabermetrics today. Near the end of last season, he remarked at how he was getting good swings on a lot of balls, but the home runs weren't coming.
He talked about that again today, when informed his strikeout rate was down but his home run rate was down too. But he still hit .276, which was just three points below his 2009 average and 25 points above his 2008 average.
Howard was putting more balls in play. They just weren't going over the fence.
"Last year, I probably hit the most balls I've ever hit that knuckled for some reason," Howard said. "I just wasn't getting the backspin. I would square balls up and they knuckle."
Howard's batting average on balls in play last season was .332 -- his highest mark since the ridiculous MVP season of 2006.
So what does it mean? Was Howard luckier in 2010, that more balls he put in play fell in for hits? It's possible, but Howard's line drive rate remained the same from 2009 to 2010 -- 23.2 percent. His fly ball rate was down (40.6 percent to 37.1) and his home run to fly ball ratio was too (25.4 percent to 21.1).
All the numbers back up what Howard suggested -- that he didn't make as solid contact as he usually does. Now, the question is, was that caused partially by the ankle injury or is it the early onset of a declining power hitter?
Download our NEW iPhone/Android app for easy access to all of our Phillies coverage, plus app-exclusive videos and analysis. Get it here.
Comments (52)
What a Baby.He hasn't played on that "Sprained" ankle now for 4 months.How can't it be 100%.He is just setting up an excuse for a slow start.He is good player,but he is not worth the money he gets payed or the length of contract he has.- I agree. How can it NOT be healthy at this point in time. Regardless, he had better be wearing some sort of an ankle brace for support. It's putup or shut up time for him. I love em all as much as the next guy, believe me, but actually, it's put up or shut up time for Howard, Rollins, Utley and Victorino. All this talk about a renewed commitment to their respective off-season workout regimens had better be true. GET. IT. DONE, BOYS. PERIOD.— 5NOT4
- Ever hear of nagging injuries?— M60tanker
- So, what is your point Mr. Gelb?— craig123
- Like the statistics he covets so much, he has no point. Howard started off the first month of the season almost never striking out and hitting .330 for no power. As soon as he started to do what he is supposed to, he got hurt. Leave the guy alone and let hm hit 40 Hr strike out 190 times and hit .275 and have 140 RBI's and tell me later why it doesn't really count bc your statistics say he was lucky. Or he could single-handedly carry the Phillies into the playoffs in the second half of the season like he does every year. — UncleStosh
- I think Mr. Gelb's point is to question whether we're seeing a trend here. I don't think one season makes a trend, but the fact that Howard's power numbers were down even before the injury is somewhat disturbing. I guess the real answer will come in 2011. Assuming Howard stays healthy, can we expect a return to his 45+ homerun rate of previous seasons, or another season in the low 30s? Is more power worth the tradeoff of more strikeouts? I think there's one thing we can all agree on.....If Howard just becomes Albert Pujols, hitting for power AND average...we'd all be happy :-)— SteveS11
- M60tanker hit the nail on the head. I sprained my ankle pretty good as a junior in high school. My ankle still isn't the same 15 years later. If the weather is damp it aches a little. On uneven pavement it rolls sometimes. Nothing is "wrong" with it there are just little nagging things. When I play sports, I need to tape it and wear a brace and will have to do so forever. People need to chill. The whole offense was off last year.— DennyP
- What about pitchers learning that he cannot hit the low outside off-speed pitch?— LA Mike
- Gotta protect the plate (take a hack) with 2 strikes.....— ATrucksess
Howard leads the league in NOT coming through in the clutch— shawnmac- Give me a break...He has come through plenty of times in the clutch...He has carried the team on his shoulders in September before to get us into the playoffs...Yes, Brian Wilson struck him out last year year looking, we were all watcing, you aren't going to bat 1.0000 — phigglesfan75
- What is Howard's sluggling percentage for his career prior to the injury (April-July)? He always seems to start cool and really heat up in the last couple of months. I imagine his power numbers are comparable over the same time frame (obviously omitting the time he played hurt).— Clt Philly Fan
- A greater question is why Howard heats up in September? Some say because he plays well under pressure (which is inconsistent with his play in October), while others say it's because of the expanded roster and more teams playing prospects (hence more minor league level pitchers) and decreased quality of pitching. Who knows. — Chewey
- I think he is similar to a lot of big, power guys. I think in April and May, the colder weather plays a large factor. I think he has had good postseason's minus a few of series (Rockies 2007, Yankees 2009 and all 2010 but hurt). It is consistent with his overall game, really hot and really cold. Maybe it just takes him time to really find his groove. I do know he seems to carry the team most Augusts and Septembers. — Clt Philly Fan
- Ryan Howard is an excellent power hitter, and I am sure that not being able to push porperly off his ankle hurt his power production last year. While he is in the top 3 in baseball in power production, he is paid the 2nd highest salary in the game, and he is far from the 2nd best player in baseball. I subscribe to the "he is who he is" theory and he should not try to change his game, as long as he can produce 45/140. My problem all along and will always be his contract and the limitations it will put on the club when it needs to replace the aging core players. Who will replace Rollins, Lidge and Madsen if they all leave after 2011, or Hamels if he leaves after 2012? Then you have Utley, Victorino and Polance all aging and with contracts expiring after 2-3 more years. We have no position players in the system, so in order to be championship-caliber, we have to buy them, like the Yankees. Howard's salary is about double what it should be in that he only provides one of the five tools for position players. It frustrates me when you're paid to be the best and hurt the team in other areas such as defense, clutch hitting and keeping rallies alive.— twalesi
Howard has been notorious for being a late season hitter. From August 1 on his number have been astounding except for last year. The comparison I'd like to see is what were his numbers in 2006-2009 up to the date he was injured in 2010? I sure remember how hot he was the last 2 months of each regular season. I think it's very possible that his 2010 numbers at the time he got injured were comperable to his number the previous three or four years. Brookover and Gelb, what can you find out on this?- If you probe further into sabmermetrics, you'll see that he's not that impressive when it comes to stats like WAR and runs produced. Howard is good, but not as good as people in Philly think he is. IMO, he's probably only the 5th or 6th first basemen in baseball (Pujols, Gonzalez, Votto, and Cabrera are above him).— Chewey
- Did Ryan say he wasn't healthy? I thought he said 98%. That's pretty close to 100% in my book and way far from not healthy. Howard is a bargain at $20 mil and what do any of you care? You're not signing his check. Before you spout your financial contributions to the team and brag that you're a season ticket holder, the Phils payroll would be MLB top 5 with or without Ryan Howard. I'm glad Ryan Howard is on the Phillies. Just enjoy it you ingrates.— vafan
- @vafan - It has nothing to do with him making money; like twalesi said, it's really about the length of the contract. I personally don't have a problem with $25M per year (although I do think he's overpaid relative to market value), but you do realize that he's going to be making that until he's 37-38. THe last 3 years of the contract is going to be a nightmare for the Phillies. No one is going to want to pay $25M a year to an aging .260/.320/.450 player. So the concern is about not wanting the Phillies to be financially intractable, preventing the signing of new talent and the maintaining of competition. So, that is why I care.— Chewey
- So are you gonna pull up some saber stat to support your "nightmare" theory? How about this instead? He improves his numbers over the length of the contract. Ain't arguing over the internet great! Glass is half full for me! — vafan
- Is it the sign of a declining power hitter? Are you serious? Ryan sit such ridiculous standards those 4 years, averaging almost 50 a year, that you reporters and fans are delusional because of a "31 home rum year"? His worst year (AN INJURY YEAR AT THAT) is better than most people's career years and you think it's a sign of a declining power hitter. Ibanez is 38 and an better shape than all of us on this board, no reason to think Howard isn't going to keep 'keeping in shape' and produce for at least 5 more years. It's Friday people, lighten up on the doom and gloom, this is going to be the best Phillies year ever, enjoy it knuckleheads!— Bleue
- Let's hope you are correct, otherwise, Phillies are going to be in trouble for years with the length of his contract. I, however, am a bit dubious. — Chewey
- In baseball, to win games you need to score more runs than your opponent. If you compare Pujols and Howard, you'll find that Howard drives in more runs than Pujols (since 2006), but scores slightly fewer than Pujols. In terms of run production Howard is ahead by 9 runs since 2006 (495 R scored, 680 RBI) than Pujols (557 R scored, 609 RBI). Sabermetrics are for people that have to find a negative in everything. I'm not saying that if I were starting a team, I'd take Howard over Pujols, because I wouldn't. What I am saying is to give Ryan some slack, in the last fews years there have been times that he single handedly carried this team, so quit complaining about his salary or production because there is no merit to your arguments!— jeffmd
- @jeffmd, no merit to the argument? Perhaps that's why you are so myopic? You make it sound like a significant number of fans (perhaps even majority if you count non-Philly people) are delusional and absurd. And no, sabermetrics is not for people who want to find a negative in everything; it's actually for people that believe math and logic could evaluate performance more accurately, beyond the traditional, more situation-dependent statistics.— Chewey
- Chewey, I'm not saying that there's no place for sabermetrics in baseball, it's just that stats like WAR won't win division titles, league titles or World Series and they certainly don't take into consideration a players clubhouse presence on his teamates. I used facts in my argument, and that is neither delusional or short-sighted. And wins above replacement...seriously?? How does that help you evaluate anything? Please tell me... — jeffmd
- Well, you list runs and RBIs, but there are also ways to interpret those numbers. For example, have you checked Howard's BA w/RISP versus Pujols'? It's not even a comparison. So one could argue that uncontrollable factors (such as RBI opportunities, BABIP, etc.) often influence those numbers in ways that do not clearly illustrate the player's ability. And in terms WAR, yes, WAR doesn't win games because that's not its purpose (and you clearly don't understand why sabermetrics is used). — Chewey
- Ryan Howard ranks at or near the top in terms of home runs per at bat at the start of a career. He's ahead of people like Ruth and Kiner. He is a player of historic dimensions, with the caveat that this using but one statistic. Sabremetrics are, I believe, an advanced and fairly predictive tool in understanding players' value. Based on these metrics, Howard is an above-average player who may or may not be showing signs of a downward decline. Having said all of that, his home run and RBI totals cannot and should not be dismissed because he does not score as well in advanced metrics such as WAR. The problem I have with sabremetrics is that they indicate Jayson Werth is a better player than Ryan Howard. I have an extremely difficult time accepting that conclusion. However, just for conversation, I would like to know from other posters your answer to this: You're the GM of the Nationals. Ruben Amaro calls you and says, "the Werth and Howard contracts are essentially the same. I'll trade you Howard for Werth, straight up." Do you make that deal? Why or why not?— andrewfrombrooklyn
- Howards production before the injury last season was a bit down in power but way up in average and efficiency. I'll take that anytime. Still, you can't look at that pitch.— mjb
- Howard lost a month, so obviously his power numbers were down. Second, every slugger has a power outage from time to time. Pujols hit 49 HRs in 2006. The following year he hit only 32 even though he played 15 more games (158 to 143). Then hit 37 and 47 in '08 and '09 respectively. Last year he had 42.— EL Zorro
- I also notice that a lot of line drives Howard hit last year died in the warning track, when in previous years those same balls left the yard. As a matter of fact, the only slugger who hit a ton of HRs was Jose Bautista of Toronto. Pujols hit 5 less. Maybe they did something to the baseballs.— EL Zorro
- Imagine THIS all you fans: Imagine that the entire lineup, as a whole, gets 4.5 Runs Per Game. I'm thinking 125 wins in that case. Let's get this season STARTED man! GO FIGHTINS!!!— TBear
- The power numbers are not the most important this year. With the quality of this pitching staff, Howard has to learn to lay off bad pitches and take a walk. Fewer runs will be needed to win games and just advancing runners by walking will be huge help. If Howard could lower his strike-outs by 50 - 75 a year and take half of that at least in walks, this team could easily win 100 games. I wish someone could sit down and convince him of that fact. Howard has to have respect that the guys behind him will get the job done if the pitchers refuse to throw him hittable pitches.— RunningTheBases
- Forget what us idiot fans say. What says it all is when opposing managers who have all the scouting reports choose to pitch around hitters like Utley to get to Howard.Thats a telling statement. Im sorry. In the postseason if you have a $25 million man and he is so not feared that opposing managers want him at the plate with runners on base, thats scary. The league adjusted to him and he'll still get his 35 home runs, but people who are waiting for that 50 HR, 155 rbi type of season again are going to be waiting a long time. I pray he proves me and the rest of his detractors wrong but there seems to be a solid trend. and dont give me that he batted .300 in the playoffs. You don't get $25 million to be a 265 lb singles hitter.— Sewellmatt
- Did the ankle affect his glove at first-----cost the Phils about 4/5 games last year.— Romus
- We can all agree to disagree about Howard's value but please stop saying Howard's contract is $25 mil/year. He is making $20 mil/year for the next 3 YEARS. Amaro negotiated a brilliant deal keeping one of the game's premier power hitters in Philly at very favorable terms. By the time the deal goes to $25 mil/year in 2014 the market will be much higher and this contract will still remain a favorable deal for the Phils. Again, Howard makes $20 mil/year.— vafan
- I think most people say $25/year because the extension was $125/5 years. I'm certain ALL contracts aren't constant each year. And in terms of the market getting "much higher" and favorable, you do realize Howard's skills and production will also depreciate as he gets older. In fact, I would argue that paying more now (when his skills and production are at apex) is a much better option, providing the team with flexibility when Howard's value decreases. — Chewey
- I know what most people say. Again, Howard makes $20 mil/year for the next 3 YEARS. A bargain for the kind of numbers he consistently puts up. You're gonna front load a contract? Brilliant. Now you're arguing just for attention. — vafan
- For all of you intelligent baseball fans who want to criticize Howard's ability in the clutch, did you ever consider that in 2009 he set the record for the most consecutive post season games with an RBI. Imagine if he was actually clutch.
If not for Howard, they don't make it to the 2009 World Series. If not for Howard in September of 2008, they might not make the post season and we would be 30 years and counting now.
Baseball is a game where you can fail 70% of the time and end up in the Hall of Fame. Mike Schmidt was 1 for 20 in the 1983 World Series and guess what he is still the greatest thirdbaseman in history.— NMPartners 
Baseball fans: Phillies and other MLB musings here.... http://carrotleaguebaseballtoday.blogspot.com/- Howard set such a high standard his first few years in the league that anything short of that in any year is going to disappoint.He is a better then average power hitter and drives in a lot of runs period .
The problem is he is a one tool player albeit great at that(power hitting).He soesnt help you in the field or on the bases,
I think we have seen the best of Utley and Rollins both offensively and defensively and its possible we have seen Howards better years also especially since the Phils will be excessive amounts of lefthanded pitching.This alone will have a negative impact on Howard.
howard for him has had one bad year whereas Utley and Rollins have been in a downward spiral the two years.
utley and rollins were hitting the long ball especially Chase for small guys and then all of a sudden they werent Hmmmmmmmmmm.The same dould happen to Howard as it did for many other big sluggers.
Roger Maris and Dick Allen are two good examples.— gardner - Charlie on DNL indicated he would like to see RH move a little closer to the plate... we will see...— M60tanker
- He has a big nose holy....hell of a player when healthy.. he is what he is and that is a power hitter...— Gregory1
Finding his "power" isn't the problem, finding the "strike zone" is. Time to earn the "big bucks" and produce when the game(s) on the line, and not when games are meaningless with no pressure.— dogman5- Hey Chewey. Of all the ridiculous theories your has to be the most ridiculous. Minor league level pitchers!? I don't think you even believe that. That Ryan Howard has carried this team through so many different periods during the course of his career is not even subject for debate unless you just haven't been paying attention or just don't know the game. Or of course you're just a front-running fair weather fan like some here.— JLH
- That's not my theory (sorry, can't take credit for that); just something that people have proposed. Do I believe it? Probably not. Personally, I think Howard's a really streaky player (more so that other power hitters in the league), and his hot streaks often begin in late summer. And no, I'm not a fair weather fan; I'm in my late 20s, and have been a fan since the Steve Jeltz-Von Hayes-Tom Herr-days. And I really love the "you don't know the game", etc. arguments. In case you were stuck in the mini-Philly world, there are pretty smart experts (Rob Neyer, Keith Law, etc.) that also agree Howard isn't exactly what most Philly fans think he is. Thus, it also was not a shock to read that Howard was listed 50th in Larry Dobrow's MLB projection list. — Chewey
- I'm not worried about his power. I'm worried about his streakiness. When Howard does into a slump, it's as if he completely forgets how to hit. He's got to learn how to be more consistent somehow.— p-diddy
- not 100% yet?? it's a sprained friggin ankle! good thing he doesn't play football or he would have missed a whole year!— your_mom_says_hi!
- People shut up! Would you want Travis Effin Lee back?!?!? Howard is a great first baseman. 95% of the other teams in baseball would take him. nuff said.
- The only thing Ryan has to do is learn to hit or layoff the breaking ball. Why not line up lefties and just throw Ryan slider after slider while in camp? Throw him 100 straight sliders every day until he is able to swing at only the strikes. Probably most college lefthanders can have succes against Ryan if they have even an average breaking pitch. This is what he needs to work on...if he can fix this hole in his batting approach, his power numbers and success rate will rise dramatically.— MrPhillie
- What the heck does 2% sore feel like? Suck it up!— tellitso
- And if he finds his power and his batting average is .250 all the Sports Writers will be harping on his BA. If he hitS .300 and 25 homers these SAME sports writers will be harping in his lose of power. No matter what Ryan Howard does the Sport Writers just keep picking and picking at him. 45 HRS and 140 RBI IS ENOUGH! LEAVE THE MAN ALONE! Find something else to write about you know it all PARASITES who make a living writing about sports because YOU CANT' PLAY THEM!— Grapost
1
About this blog
The Phillies Zone is the place for up-to-the-minute Phillies coverage from the Inquirer.
Matt Gelb
Inquirer Staff Writer
Bob Brookover
Inquirer Baseball Columnist
Search this blog:
Classifieds:
Site Services:
Partners:
Powered By:
