Howard's power and sabermetrics
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Howard's power and sabermetrics
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
CLEARWATER, Fla. -- The ankle, Ryan Howard says, is about 98 percent right now. So what condition was it in during the postseason?
"That doesn't really matter anymore now," Howard said this morning. "I'm not going to make any excuses about my ankle or anything like that."
No, but Howard's final numbers in 2010 certainly reflected the effect of the injury. He ended the season with 31 home runs and 108 RBIs, the lowest of his career since becoming a full-time regular. But counting numbers need not apply since Howard missed 19 days with a sprained left ankle. And following that return -- which may have been rushed -- Howard was not 100 percent.
Heck, he's not even 100 percent yet and it's February.
"It's funny to me because everyone talks about my power numbers," Howard said. "'Oh, Ryan, your power numbers were down.' I think everybody forgot I was out for a month, that I was hurt. I was right there with everybody on the leaderboard in home runs and RBIs. I don't really think that was an issue. I got hurt."
Again, as a reference:
2010 slugging percentage pre injury (407 AB): .528
2010 slugging percentage post injury (143 AB): .441
Career slugging percentage: .586
So yes, it is troubling that even before the injury, his slugging percentage was well below his career figures. But if we are to rely by mere counting numbers, had Howard not been injured, it's wholly possible he ends the season as the National League home run leader. (Albert Pujols finished with 42. Howard tied for eighth with 31.)
Interestingly enough, Howard accidently explained a principle of sabermetrics today. Near the end of last season, he remarked at how he was getting good swings on a lot of balls, but the home runs weren't coming.
He talked about that again today, when informed his strikeout rate was down but his home run rate was down too. But he still hit .276, which was just three points below his 2009 average and 25 points above his 2008 average.
Howard was putting more balls in play. They just weren't going over the fence.
"Last year, I probably hit the most balls I've ever hit that knuckled for some reason," Howard said. "I just wasn't getting the backspin. I would square balls up and they knuckle."
Howard's batting average on balls in play last season was .332 -- his highest mark since the ridiculous MVP season of 2006.
So what does it mean? Was Howard luckier in 2010, that more balls he put in play fell in for hits? It's possible, but Howard's line drive rate remained the same from 2009 to 2010 -- 23.2 percent. His fly ball rate was down (40.6 percent to 37.1) and his home run to fly ball ratio was too (25.4 percent to 21.1).
All the numbers back up what Howard suggested -- that he didn't make as solid contact as he usually does. Now, the question is, was that caused partially by the ankle injury or is it the early onset of a declining power hitter?
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What a Baby.He hasn't played on that "Sprained" ankle now for 4 months.How can't it be 100%.He is just setting up an excuse for a slow start.He is good player,but he is not worth the money he gets payed or the length of contract he has.- I agree. How can it NOT be healthy at this point in time. Regardless, he had better be wearing some sort of an ankle brace for support. It's putup or shut up time for him. I love em all as much as the next guy, believe me, but actually, it's put up or shut up time for Howard, Rollins, Utley and Victorino. All this talk about a renewed commitment to their respective off-season workout regimens had better be true. GET. IT. DONE, BOYS. PERIOD.— 5NOT4
- Ever hear of nagging injuries?— M60tanker
- So, what is your point Mr. Gelb?— craig123
- Like the statistics he covets so much, he has no point. Howard started off the first month of the season almost never striking out and hitting .330 for no power. As soon as he started to do what he is supposed to, he got hurt. Leave the guy alone and let hm hit 40 Hr strike out 190 times and hit .275 and have 140 RBI's and tell me later why it doesn't really count bc your statistics say he was lucky. Or he could single-handedly carry the Phillies into the playoffs in the second half of the season like he does every year. — UncleStosh
- I think Mr. Gelb's point is to question whether we're seeing a trend here. I don't think one season makes a trend, but the fact that Howard's power numbers were down even before the injury is somewhat disturbing. I guess the real answer will come in 2011. Assuming Howard stays healthy, can we expect a return to his 45+ homerun rate of previous seasons, or another season in the low 30s? Is more power worth the tradeoff of more strikeouts? I think there's one thing we can all agree on.....If Howard just becomes Albert Pujols, hitting for power AND average...we'd all be happy :-)— SteveS11
- M60tanker hit the nail on the head. I sprained my ankle pretty good as a junior in high school. My ankle still isn't the same 15 years later. If the weather is damp it aches a little. On uneven pavement it rolls sometimes. Nothing is "wrong" with it there are just little nagging things. When I play sports, I need to tape it and wear a brace and will have to do so forever. People need to chill. The whole offense was off last year.— DennyP
- What about pitchers learning that he cannot hit the low outside off-speed pitch?— LA Mike
- Gotta protect the plate (take a hack) with 2 strikes.....— ATrucksess
Howard leads the league in NOT coming through in the clutch— shawnmac- Give me a break...He has come through plenty of times in the clutch...He has carried the team on his shoulders in September before to get us into the playoffs...Yes, Brian Wilson struck him out last year year looking, we were all watcing, you aren't going to bat 1.0000 — phigglesfan75
- What is Howard's sluggling percentage for his career prior to the injury (April-July)? He always seems to start cool and really heat up in the last couple of months. I imagine his power numbers are comparable over the same time frame (obviously omitting the time he played hurt).— Clt Philly Fan
- A greater question is why Howard heats up in September? Some say because he plays well under pressure (which is inconsistent with his play in October), while others say it's because of the expanded roster and more teams playing prospects (hence more minor league level pitchers) and decreased quality of pitching. Who knows. — Chewey
- I think he is similar to a lot of big, power guys. I think in April and May, the colder weather plays a large factor. I think he has had good postseason's minus a few of series (Rockies 2007, Yankees 2009 and all 2010 but hurt). It is consistent with his overall game, really hot and really cold. Maybe it just takes him time to really find his groove. I do know he seems to carry the team most Augusts and Septembers. — Clt Philly Fan
