How did we end up here?
BALTIMORE - The Phillies, owners of a 28-31 record, have not been this bad through 59 games since 2002 when a Larry Bowa-managed team was 25-34.
How did we end up here?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
BALTIMORE — The Phillies, owners of a 28-31 record, have not been this bad through 59 games since 2002 when a Larry Bowa-managed team was 25-34. Terry Adams and Joe Roa combined to make 30 starts that season, Travis Lee ran off the field with one out left in the season, and the Phillies finished under .500.
Charlie Manuel reached a clear point of frustration Thursday when his painfully average roster punted away another one to make it a six-game losing streak. The Phillies are 12-19 at Citizens Bank Park and maybe this road trip comes at an opportune time.
Or maybe none of it matters. Manuel is the source of consternation for a whole lot of angry Phillies fans, and that's understandable. He's the public face of the franchise. He's the one who has to answer the same questions about unacceptable baseball on a daily basis. He's the one who makes the lineups, the substitutions, and guides the players.
But it's quite difficult to say this is on the manager, who has done just about all he can with the roster he's been handed. The Phillies have used 48 different lineups in those 59 games. There is only so much lipstick that can be applied to this pig.
The players are certainly to blame. They have pressed in important situations. They have not stayed healthy. They have made mental errors, physical errors and just plain errors.
But we'll focus on the general manager, who made three assumptions in the winter that have been exposed in the season's first 59 games. Ruben Amaro Jr. did not cause this start. He failed to prevent it, though.
1. It was impossible to assume a repeat performance from the pitching staff.
Would you believe the Phillies rank 12th in the majors with a 3.87 ERA? That figure is just .07 below the major-league average of 3.95. In 2011, the Phillies led the majors with a 3.02 team ERA, which was 92 points below baseball's average.
The Phillies allowed 3.27 runs per game in 2001, the franchise's lowest clip since 1917. They led the National League in ERA for the first time since 1952. The team ERA of 3.02 was the lowest for any team since the 1989 Dodgers, who had a 2.95 mark.
There was no way they could repeat that in 2012.
Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels each made at least 31 starts. Roy Oswalt was in and out of the rotation, but still started 23 times, which is probably more than Halladay will reach in 2012. Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick were extraordinary replacements. The bullpen was eighth in the majors with a 3.45 ERA and that was product of some luck.
Half of the pitchers who started a game in baseball last season spent time on the disabled list. The Phillies avoided it with the big horses in their staff a season ago. That was not replicated in 2012. And it was silly to think it could be.
Pitching coach Rich Dubee said something interesting the other day. He was answering questions about Halladay's shoulder and hopped on a tangent.
"The expectations that people put on our rotation last year were outrageous, but we pitched beyond those," Dubee said. "Look at the years those guys had, they pitched above and beyond those expectations, which is phenomenal."
Absent the hype of Four Aces, the expectations were the same for 2012 — even in the front office, because little was done to improve the offense.
2. Their faith in John Mayberry Jr.'s ability to be an everyday player was misplaced.
This one was easy to foresee. From a Feb. 18 story:
There are reasons Mayberry is 28 and has never served as an everyday player in the majors. His inability to recognize breaking balls is one. His lack of consistent production against righthanded pitchers is another.
That's not to say Mayberry can't duplicate Werth's career arc. But his 2011 numbers warrant a more critical eye, especially since they are a chief reason the Phillies have faith in his skill.
Of Mayberry's 296 plate appearances, 40.5 percent came against lefthanders. Predictably, the righthanded Mayberry hit them quite well. Eight of his 15 home runs were off lefties, and his strikeout rate was a tenable 15 percent.
If Mayberry is to receive increased playing time in 2012, his platoon split will not be as favorable. Last season, hitters faced lefthanded pitchers in 26.7 percent of total plate appearances in all of baseball. The more Mayberry plays, the closer his platoon split should be to the major-league average.
Against righthanders, Mayberry wasn't terrible by any means. He hit .250 (opposed to .306 vs. lefties) and still managed a .785 OPS. But he struck out 21 percent when facing righties, and 61.9 percent of his batted balls were on the ground or infield pop-ups. That figure against lefties was 42.8 percent.
The results: Mayberry has been one of the least productive players in baseball with his amount of playing time. His numbers against righthanded pitchers are unsightly; a .198/.261/.235 slash line in 88 plate appearances.
He's on the bench for Juan Pierre, and left field went from being a spot the Phillies projected 25 home runs to a spot for a slap hitter with 16 home runs in 13 seasons.
3. Relying on Chad Qualls and Jose Contreras as setup men was a fool's errand.
It's hard to completely blame this situation on Amaro. The Phillies believed they had depth in Mike Stutes, David Herndon, Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus. All four have spent time on the disabled list and three of them may not throw a pitch again this season. Contreras, 40, was returning from elbow surgery. It was difficult to assume production from him. He lasted less than two months before Tommy John surgery robbed him of another season.
So that leaves Qualls. Not only is he still on the roster, but he's still their best righthanded setup option.
Qualls' strikeout and walk rate are about the same as a season ago when he displayed some alarming tendencies. His sinker is not sinking and it's flying out of the ballpark at a prodigious rate. The opposition is making better contact against him. It's been that way for nearly the entire season.
Yet the Phillies are stuck with him because it's either Chad Qualls or Michael Schwimer. And beyond that, there is no one else. Manuel has basically begged for help in a public setting and it has not arrived.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
imagine any big league pitcher / starter / going into June without a win - not easy to do...
i still can not even phathom how Cliff Lee can go 2 months on the Phillies without a win...
i do not think if he was on any other team in the league this could be possible - i think he would of won 4-5 games by now if he was an astro...
but we do have an exceptional, guru, one of a kind, specialist, brilliant hitting know it all in Charlie - it does not matter that we are 6th or so in the NL with avg..— LivePhilly_DiePhilly- It's been mentioned, but I'll voice my opinion to make it a chorus: giving Ryan Howard that new contract was idiotic. RAJ can justify it by saying A) It stopped a bidding war or B) Hindsight is 20/20, but C) Howard's stats were on the decline and he was still under contract. Phillies could have offered him arbitration and still pursued the likes of Prince, Albert, or traded for Morse.
Signing Howard effectively cripples the franchise. The guy is 32, can't hit offspeed pitches, and is now a .250-.270 (generous there) 30 HR guy. He lacks discipline and guys like him are signed for 10-15 million. That extra 10-15 million could have brought in a solid third baseman. Imagine having Matt Morse at first, Michael Young at third, and enough for a solid bench player/pinch hitter/DH. That's a good portion of the Phillies' offensive woes.
Thing is, now the Phillies are COMMITTED to a mistake for 5 years. That's Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee's careers. Reduces the likelihood of resigning Cole Hamels who could get good money in NY.— pillsbury - Nice apology piece, I'm sure you have moved to position #1 on the suck up meter with Rube. It's all his fault.— jimmymack
- After winning a World Series this team has ended up worse every year since Amaro took over this team. It is also true that since Amaro has taken control of this team Mike Arbuckle, Chuck Lamar, Jimy Williams and Davy Lopes have all resigned because of differences with Amaro. It's not Manual who has ruined this team, it's the the Phillies General Manager who has.— ED4050
- agreed...
it comes to mind how barry switzer walked into jimmy johnson's dynasty and got a superbowl out of it, only to erode from there...
speaking of superbowls -- we are the best franchise to never win one...— LivePhilly_DiePhilly - Blame goes to Rollins, Victorino, Pence (with RISP), Utley. Except for Thome, Amaro's moves have been good. The idea was to stay competitive until Howard came back. No one could have seen these injuries stacking up like this.— Vote for Dickie
- I agree with ED4050. Amaro has spent a ton of money in the wrong places. The playoffs the last two years showed that offense was needed. Instead he spends 50 mil on a closer and 33 mil to a washed up veteran. All the teams get injuries but the great GM's find a way to get the right pieces. The Dodgers and Nationals have key injuries and are in first place. If we are going to lose , at least bring up some players that are doing well in the minors. It's better than watching these overpaid veterans stink up the place. Fire the manager and get some life behind the bench. Hamels can't wait to get out of here with this lineup. Philly has lost it's baseball this year. Pathetic and it's only June.— Pap
- I agree he spent too much $ on a closer. But, if you look at it another way, a bone fide closer was what they were missing. Had Madson not hit free agency, he would have been the closer. But he did, and he was seeking a multi-year deal, and Amaro went with the proven commodity. He overpayed, but he had money to burn so he didn't worry too much about it. Relying on Mayberry was a HUGE gamble that backfired. They should have signed Cody Ross to play LF. 3B was also a gamble, but Amaro probably thought he could squeeze one more year out of Polanco with Wiggington filling in every third or fourth game. Thome was a stretch and a sentimental signing only. Victorino has been underwhelming in free agent/contract year. It would have been reasonable to assume he would play at least as well as he has in the past if for no other reason than motivation for when he hit the market (ala Werth). He's his own worst enemy right now.
— Sam Crow - ...after Cole won the MVP, Championship, i was harsh on him for pawning goodies on hsn or whatever... only to remember he was making maybe 500K for that year...? i got over it, stuck up for him, watched as the phillies average less than 2 runs a game for him year or so later.
now - it is time to wish him goodbye. to much fuel for the fire in philly.
we are out of money - only a matter of time before our sell out streak comes to an end, then another game, then down to 95%, 90% etc...
— LivePhilly_DiePhilly 
There is one more point missing: Davey Lopes. He kept the hitters aware of what to do on-base and at the plate. (Have you noticed players are ignoring Samuel's sign to stop?)— Homersez- it is called respect - something that Samuel obviously does not have with the team...
ed4050 nailed it on the head
— LivePhilly_DiePhilly - no more luxury of taking 10-12 games from the division rivals of nl east anymore -- those days are gone.
— LivePhilly_DiePhilly - Good piece Matt. I agree that Wigginton, Pierre, Nix are good complimentary players who would compliment the #1 guys very well. Not read anything about how losing Stutes has had a domino effect on pen. And I never read anything that said Galvis was ready. He is going to be an all star. whoever found him, kudos.— tommazza
- Well, you missed the whole point about tying up a bunch of money in aging has beens and fail to note that Charlie's propensity to change the line up every night based on his gut is one of the major problems, but your first point is the best one. I probably commented on here 30 times in the offseason- after the Rollins signing- that the Phillies would have trouble making the playoffs or reaching .500 if their starting rotation pitched to their career norms. In 2011 they had three top-notch pitchers who all had career years, Worley had a great year, Oswalt had a great start and finished OK and Kendrick did super, yet they still only won 102 games and got eliminated in the NLDS- part of that is the overall team weakness and part of that is Charlie jerking young players around and making boneheaded calls in close games.— jtj10
- How can Pat Gillick sit back as an advisor and watch this go on? Or is it his fault? Every organization he's left has been bad for years afterwards (Toronto, Baltimore, Seattle). Maybe because he did so much on gut feelings, rather than written down rules, it's tough to replace someone like him. And, Amaro is a Stamford grad - all head knowledge and no common sense.— sonnybuoy01
