How did we end up here?
BALTIMORE - The Phillies, owners of a 28-31 record, have not been this bad through 59 games since 2002 when a Larry Bowa-managed team was 25-34.
How did we end up here?
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
BALTIMORE — The Phillies, owners of a 28-31 record, have not been this bad through 59 games since 2002 when a Larry Bowa-managed team was 25-34. Terry Adams and Joe Roa combined to make 30 starts that season, Travis Lee ran off the field with one out left in the season, and the Phillies finished under .500.
Charlie Manuel reached a clear point of frustration Thursday when his painfully average roster punted away another one to make it a six-game losing streak. The Phillies are 12-19 at Citizens Bank Park and maybe this road trip comes at an opportune time.
Or maybe none of it matters. Manuel is the source of consternation for a whole lot of angry Phillies fans, and that's understandable. He's the public face of the franchise. He's the one who has to answer the same questions about unacceptable baseball on a daily basis. He's the one who makes the lineups, the substitutions, and guides the players.
But it's quite difficult to say this is on the manager, who has done just about all he can with the roster he's been handed. The Phillies have used 48 different lineups in those 59 games. There is only so much lipstick that can be applied to this pig.
The players are certainly to blame. They have pressed in important situations. They have not stayed healthy. They have made mental errors, physical errors and just plain errors.
But we'll focus on the general manager, who made three assumptions in the winter that have been exposed in the season's first 59 games. Ruben Amaro Jr. did not cause this start. He failed to prevent it, though.
1. It was impossible to assume a repeat performance from the pitching staff.
Would you believe the Phillies rank 12th in the majors with a 3.87 ERA? That figure is just .07 below the major-league average of 3.95. In 2011, the Phillies led the majors with a 3.02 team ERA, which was 92 points below baseball's average.
The Phillies allowed 3.27 runs per game in 2001, the franchise's lowest clip since 1917. They led the National League in ERA for the first time since 1952. The team ERA of 3.02 was the lowest for any team since the 1989 Dodgers, who had a 2.95 mark.
There was no way they could repeat that in 2012.
Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels each made at least 31 starts. Roy Oswalt was in and out of the rotation, but still started 23 times, which is probably more than Halladay will reach in 2012. Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick were extraordinary replacements. The bullpen was eighth in the majors with a 3.45 ERA and that was product of some luck.
Half of the pitchers who started a game in baseball last season spent time on the disabled list. The Phillies avoided it with the big horses in their staff a season ago. That was not replicated in 2012. And it was silly to think it could be.
Pitching coach Rich Dubee said something interesting the other day. He was answering questions about Halladay's shoulder and hopped on a tangent.
"The expectations that people put on our rotation last year were outrageous, but we pitched beyond those," Dubee said. "Look at the years those guys had, they pitched above and beyond those expectations, which is phenomenal."
Absent the hype of Four Aces, the expectations were the same for 2012 — even in the front office, because little was done to improve the offense.
2. Their faith in John Mayberry Jr.'s ability to be an everyday player was misplaced.
This one was easy to foresee. From a Feb. 18 story:
There are reasons Mayberry is 28 and has never served as an everyday player in the majors. His inability to recognize breaking balls is one. His lack of consistent production against righthanded pitchers is another.
That's not to say Mayberry can't duplicate Werth's career arc. But his 2011 numbers warrant a more critical eye, especially since they are a chief reason the Phillies have faith in his skill.
Of Mayberry's 296 plate appearances, 40.5 percent came against lefthanders. Predictably, the righthanded Mayberry hit them quite well. Eight of his 15 home runs were off lefties, and his strikeout rate was a tenable 15 percent.
If Mayberry is to receive increased playing time in 2012, his platoon split will not be as favorable. Last season, hitters faced lefthanded pitchers in 26.7 percent of total plate appearances in all of baseball. The more Mayberry plays, the closer his platoon split should be to the major-league average.
Against righthanders, Mayberry wasn't terrible by any means. He hit .250 (opposed to .306 vs. lefties) and still managed a .785 OPS. But he struck out 21 percent when facing righties, and 61.9 percent of his batted balls were on the ground or infield pop-ups. That figure against lefties was 42.8 percent.
The results: Mayberry has been one of the least productive players in baseball with his amount of playing time. His numbers against righthanded pitchers are unsightly; a .198/.261/.235 slash line in 88 plate appearances.
He's on the bench for Juan Pierre, and left field went from being a spot the Phillies projected 25 home runs to a spot for a slap hitter with 16 home runs in 13 seasons.
3. Relying on Chad Qualls and Jose Contreras as setup men was a fool's errand.
It's hard to completely blame this situation on Amaro. The Phillies believed they had depth in Mike Stutes, David Herndon, Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus. All four have spent time on the disabled list and three of them may not throw a pitch again this season. Contreras, 40, was returning from elbow surgery. It was difficult to assume production from him. He lasted less than two months before Tommy John surgery robbed him of another season.
So that leaves Qualls. Not only is he still on the roster, but he's still their best righthanded setup option.
Qualls' strikeout and walk rate are about the same as a season ago when he displayed some alarming tendencies. His sinker is not sinking and it's flying out of the ballpark at a prodigious rate. The opposition is making better contact against him. It's been that way for nearly the entire season.
Yet the Phillies are stuck with him because it's either Chad Qualls or Michael Schwimer. And beyond that, there is no one else. Manuel has basically begged for help in a public setting and it has not arrived.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Very well written Matt. I do wonder if that money spent on Papelbon could have been used for a few pen pieces. The Rangers got roughly the same production out of Joe Nathan for millions less. Amaro's lack of patience really hurts this team. Oh well. I guess we will have the 2013 draft to look forward to as the Phils may have a few first round selections— PHLSG22- I think these are issues 2 3 and 4. The major issue with this team has been Victorino, Rollins, and Pence. All to different degrees. They paid a price for Pence that no matter who hits around him, he should produce. Hes nightly 1-4 isnt getting the job done. I thought since the Winter the Rollins sign was the end of the run. You gave 10+ mil to a guy who has done nothing but regress over the last 3 years and Ruben thought it would be different? Victorino is a role player on a good team. Hes not an All Star and he surely has fallen flat on his face at .250. This doesnt even bring up how many times these 3 alone have had opps to break open a game or take the lead and popped a fly ball to 2nd or mashed a grounder (Mcnabb style) to ss. Same power numbers, where would they be if all 3 were just hitting .270-.280?? about 5 as far as im concerned.— FABER
- *****5 games better.— FABER
- Good column. I'd add two more points 4. The failure to recognize Freddy Galvis' ability and re- signing Rollins for too long/too much. Polanco could have filled in at 2nd while Utley rehabbed. Consistently great franchises say goodbye a year early. 5. Follow the Nats and Angels examples and throw Dom Brown out there every day. This team needs some youthful exuberance badly.— Utley26
- Follow the Nats and Angels examples? In what way? The Nats/Expos have never won anything, and the Angels have blown more big leads/games/etc than nearly any other team in sports. Although, it's interesting you write "great franchises say goodbye a year early" yet call yourself "Utley 26" who should have been traded before his decline, which should have been seen due to his reckless nature of play and small frame. — Eilex826
- The Nats & Angels examples refer to Harper and Trout. As far as I can tell Dom Brown is the Phils version of those two. Let's put him in LF and see what happens. If he can't play then the team can make a trade or two to improve LF. You're probably right about Chase but I admire his play and leadership too much. He really provided a spark last season when he returned and I'm hoping he's got a little something left in the tank. — Utley26
- Good article. It's apparent Amaro forgot one key in his "good pitching beats good hitting" approach. It's that bad hitting (on your team) beats good pitching (on your team.) The Phils have been bad hitters since before they fired Milt Thompson and hired GG as hitting coach. This has been going on for over 2 years. Amaro's philosophy is not working. He took over the controls of a WS champ and has flown it straight into last place in only 4 years. The GM's office is where the next change needs to be.— Xyzzyx
- I'm sure this article is part one in a series but stop with the apology for Manuel. He's lost with this team.— TomO
- I am not going to woryy until August. If the Cards can come back from 10 1/2 back (with basically the same rotation. Granted they had a much better offense but we still can't count our Howard and maybe a watered down Utley)I think we can too. These aren't those sub par guys from the early 2000's these guys are former and current All-Stars going through a rough patch. I am NOT giving up on these guys— Clem
- David, closer to directly criticizing Amaro but what about calling a spade a spade...that Amaro did commit $100 million this past off-season but the only decent player acuired or re-signed was Papelbon, and his $50 million could have been put to much more pressing needs, and that the rest of the $50 mil. for Rollins, Kendrick, Thome, Wigginton,, Nix, Pierre, Qualls was impossible to comprehend as there's not a single decent all-round player in the entire bunch— warbiscuit
- Or to put it another way, as I did during the off-season, what might happen if the Phillies starters have a collective ERA .5 run higher than 2011, and they score about 100 fewer runs due to absence of Howard and Ibanez? The bullpen has been a bit of a surprise, mainly due to injuries (Stutes) and the abysmal performance of Qualls. Also, despite the Philly scribes' off-season insistence, the fact is that the rest of the division has improved, and the Mets wised up and moved in the fences at their ballpark.— ijj
- Good analysis. I thought the one free agent they needed to get last off season was Cuddyer. I do think the Paps signing has tied their hands a bit. Nothing against him, but maybe we could have pieced the bullpen together a little more cost-efficiently and used the excess on offense.— Phillylou
- at the end of last season ruben and cholly said the phils needed to change they way they approached their at bats, i.e. they needed to work counts and improve obp. so who do they go out and sign to get that going? wigs, nix and thome. nice try! obviously it hurts to be without utley and howard, but ruben's off-season failure can be summed up in two words: michael cuddyer.— Richard S
- Ruben Amaro Jr is the reason we are here watching a team that loses a game with one or two plays a night. Lets see Overpay for Lee, Not resign Ibanez, Let Valdez walk, Overpay for Paplebon. In the mean time no bullpen and no bench players and lining club house with so called speed players that can't run from 1st to third or God forbid 2nd to home. pathetic the only thing Ruben has been good for is spending money. These new players are not hungry and some are used to all the years of not winning.— ONLYinPhilly
- I am not thrilled w/Ruben, but please link to ANYONE who urged him to re-sign Ibanez. I defy you to find this. If he had, there would be a multitude of gripes here about signing a 40 year-old has been. — Jeffy3
