A good deal for Phillies WITH UPDATES ON CHAPMAN, HAPP
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A good deal for Phillies WITH UPDATES ON CHAPMAN, HAPP
Andy Martino
UPDATE, 8:45pm
Here's where we are as of Tuesday evening: A press conference officially introducing Roy Halladay as the newest Phillie will likely occur tomorrow at Citizens Bank Park, according to a source with direct knowledge of the team's plans.
The event could still, however, be delayed another day if medical reviews are not completed for all players involved in the deal. For coverage of the day's unfolding events, see below.
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The Halladay/Lee deal is "very unlikely" to be made official today, according to a person familiar with the talks. An official announcement could very well come tomorrow. The process could still accelerate and lead to an announcement later today.
There has been some unrest in my inbox this morning about reports of this trade. The widely reported deal is a good one for the Phillies, but your concerns are understandable. Reports varied yesterday evening, but the framework has now come into focus as pretty much this:
Phillies get: Roy Halladay from Toronto, 20-year-old righthander Phillippe Aumont form Seattle, 21-year-old righty J.C. Ramirez from Seattle, and 21-year-old outfielder Tyson Gillies from Seattle.
Toronto gets: Righty Kyle Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor, catcher Travis d’Arnaud.
Seattle gets: Cliff Lee
This could still change up until the moment it is announced.
Let’s run through some of the reservations and questions:
Why did it have to be Cliff Lee?
The Phillies at first tried to move Joe Blanton’s approximately $7 million salary, but that apparently did not go anywhere. It would have been very difficult to find a team to take on that money and trade decent prospects for Blanton.
That left the Phils with the option of trading Lee. The lefty will make $9 million in 2010, and the team expected he would become a free agent after the season. Lee’s agent told us yesterday that wasn’t necessarily true. But even if he did sign an extension, it would have been for significantly more money than the Phils are reportedly giving Halladay.
According to ESPN, Halladay will make $15.75 million next season, and $60 million for the next three years. That’s an unbelieveable bargain, and the best part about it is the length; you’re not locking this guy up until he’s over-the-hill (he’s 32 now). Lee’s buddy CC Sabathia got seven years, $161 million last winter, by comparison. More money, more years. And Lee might look for something like that in 11 months.
The idea that Lee and Halladay could be part of the same rotation next year was never realistic. The Phils maintained they did not have the room in their payroll. That room might have been created by trading Blanton, but they couldn’t.
And while Lee was spectacular in the World Series, Roy Halladay is a better pitcher. Look it up.
But we thought Drabek was untouchable…
Baseball America projects Drabek as a potential no. 2 or no. 3 starter. He has already undergone Tommy John surgery, and the team shut him down this summer for precautionary reasons. Keep in mind that most highly-touted pitchers do not become stars. It is difficult to imagine that he will be comparable in any way to Halladay over the next four years.
Also, this is much easier for the Phils to absorb, because they are receiving a highly-touted pitcher. Aumont is a former no. 1 draft pick, and he struck out Kevin Youkilis and Curtis Granderson while pitching for Team Canada in last March’s World Baseball Classic.
Ramirez is raw. He was 8-10 with a 5.12 ERA last season, but his perceived potential led Baseball America to rank him as the no.5 prospect in the Mariners’ system.
Will either Aumont or Ramirez become major league stars? Not likely. It is never likely that pitching prospects will become solid major leaguers. But they do help ease the hit to the farm system caused by this trade.
Someone told us that that Michael Taylor was going to be an All-Star…
Michael Taylor seems like a very smart, very grounded person, and we wish him the best. And he may well enjoy a productive career. But baseball people like Domonic Brown much more. The Phils kept Brown out of this deal, a negotiating victory.
Gillies, by the way, played in the Futures Game last year, a showcase for top minor league talent.
It’s not just that they gave up Lee, Drabek, Taylor, d’Arnaud. They gave up Marson, Carrasco, et. al….
Don’t let Ruben Amaro fool you when he says he gave up a lot for Lee last summer. I will be surprised if any one of Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Jason Knapp ever makes an All-Star team. The Indians needed to shed payroll last summer, and took a package of lesser prospects for their ace.
Look, two things that fans love are postseason performers and top prospects. That’s what people get excited about, and connect to emotionally. Very reasonable. But I believe that this move makes it more likely that the Phils will enjoy several more World Series appearances. It makes them a bit better next year, and much, much better in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
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Here's an add-on after getting some more emails: You're right, this trade as currently constructed is not technically a three-team trade. The Phils are reportedly acquiring Halladay from Toronto for prospects, while also trading Lee to Seattle for prospects. But the issue of payroll is still central to this, and prospects are also important. After giving up some of their top youngsters to get Halladay, the Phils wanted to replenish their system. So they got highly-regarded guys from Seattle.
Also, though multiple reports have Halladay and the Phils agreeing on the extension, an official announcement still does not appear likely until tomorrow. Lots of moving parts here, and medical records to be exchanged.
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The Phils have made the signing of Ross Gload official. Gload passed his physical today. The 33-year-old lefthanded bench player essentially replaces Matt Stairs. He led the major leagues with 21 pinch-hits last year, and tied for the major league lead with 15 pinch hit RBIs.
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Also, the Phillies ended up sending two scouts to see Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman throw in Houston today, according to a team source. But they are not believed to have serious interest in pursuing the pitcher.
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Another update for you: Contrary to a report, J.A. Happ did not take a physical yesterday, and has not done so recently or in connection with any trade, team source says.
I feel better about the deal if Happ isn't in it, althoughthe Toronto papers assumed they were getting Happ. If Happ and Blanton are not in the mix, it's almsot a wash sale because Lee short term and Halliday Longer term are about the same. Who really can rate pitchers wo haven't thrown in the majors yet? Too unknown to get worried about. But then there was alwyas the Phils trying to get the established De Jesus and protecting Bell, and thus giving up that unknown kid-- Sandberg. Who knows how it will end. Glad it's not a real contract with Halliday, that's always a kiss of death for the Phils. However, I don't understand how the Red Sox can afford to get another Number 1 pitcher and create what may be the best rotation in baseball and the bigger city Phils can't.— atp2007- This isn't a Lee for Halladay trade...this is a trade of Carrasco, Marson, Donald and Knapp for whatever the Phils get in return for Seattle. For that, the Phils rented Lee and made it to a World Series they wouldn't have played in without him. And now they get Halladay for less than it cost last year....losing Drabek stinks but it beats losing Drabek, Happ and Brown which is what Toronto wanted last year. They were never going to have Lee and Halladay at the same time for payroll reasons because we still aren't the Yankees or Red Sox on the money front...that is the only part of this that is worth complaining about. Don't forget that last year everyone felt like Halladay was the better pitcher and that we settled for Lee. Lee means a lot to us because of what he did down the stretch but over the long haul, Doc is the better, more dominant pitcher and his ERA in the National League will be microscopic.— DocHollywood
- What I don't get is why Seattle seems to be giving away so little to get Lee. Unless these are knockout prospects, I don't see comparing the three Mariner prospects to either Halladay or Lee (or evenly to the Phils prospects named). The real loser is Toronto, big winner Seattle and Phillies getting a decent upgrade but stay close to the same.— Timmy
- There are stilll guys out there who didn't get tendered or are still FAs. I know a lot of people are down on say, Jason Marquis, for example, or Ben Sheets--to use examples of some FAs--they can probably be had for cheap--they're not going to command multiyear deals.— bobbyuk
- If it is Cy-for-Cy, then at lease one of them won't leave after one more year...— Philly Fan in Kuwait
- At noon, I checked the Toronto Star website and they are still saying that they will get Happ from the Phils.— atp2007
- on paper, seems like the key is drabek. if he is solid or better, this trade subtracted value both next year and over the next 5. if he struggles, it was a slight upgrade (halladay overall better than lee, but never playoff tested). feel like last time we did a "starter" swap was bowa for dejesus, where we threw in sandberg. didn't work too well. of course, before that was wise for carlton....— stopbooing
- NJ Guy, I agree with everything you said. I really questioned why they even offered Joe Blanton arbitration if they were deadset on getting Roy Halladay. Regardless, I think some people need a reality check. We just traded for Roy Halladay and people are complaining? We have two aces and rookie of the year runner up in our rotation for the forseeable future, that's pretty darned good. Finally, if you're going to compare us to the Yankees remember that pitching did not lose the WS, nor did it win the Yanks the series.— booman55
- Trade Blanton for anything you can get just to dump his $7 mil. Trade for Halladay, keep Lee. If they need to free up payroll for 2011, trade Ibanez to American League as a DH, call up Brown, if you can resign Lee. Continuous trips to the WS will do wonders for their payroll, especially when they have the third biggest viewership among MLB teams, behind the Yanks and Boston. Perfect world, Comcast buys the Phils, starts a larger network like NY, and then the real money will start to come in.— beegal99
- Seattle Times is saying that Toronto will get either Drabeck or Happ, and that the Mariners would supply the other prospects to go to the Phils and Toronto.— atp2007
- Has anybody got a Plan "B" in case Lidge is 09' and not 08' in 10'?— dedhed
- Wow Andy Martino, you could not have said it any better! People Aumont is gonna be better than Drabek mark my words! Plus Halladay for 4 year > Lee for 1 and we get 6mil$ from toronto— HighHopesforHK
- I wish they'd just cancel the deal with the Mariners, keep the deal for Halladay (no kidding that Halladay for Drabeck + others is a FANTASTIC deal for Philly) swallow Moyer's salary, and win the whole thing next year. They'll make more off tickets, tee shirts, etc, than need to pay for the Moyer contract mistake - and I like Moyer. Just not as much as Lee.— Tulsa
- You're telling us that nobody wanted Blanton at $7M. Amaro said that everyone's looking for pitching, but but they couldn't trade Blanton! Mediocre FA pitchers are signing for more than $7M. Ridiculous! So, they have to trade Lee, instead of Blanton, to save a couple of million $ and to get a couple of prospects?? Are those prospects worth more than the two high draft picks they would have gotten if Lee left as a FA? You have to look at these as two separate deals, it's not a 3-way trade. The Toronto deal puts us back in the World Series. The Seattle trade MEANS WE LOSE to the Yankees again.— SkinnyJoey
- this might be the worst trade in phillies history... WHY THE HELL WE DIDNT GET HALLADAY LAST YEAR IS BLOWING MY MIND. INSTEAD OF LOSING 3 PROSPECTS, WE ARE NOW LOSING OUR ENTIRE FARM SYSTEM FOR HALLADAY. I LOVE HALLADAY BUT THIS WAS SO MISMANAGED ITS MAKING ME SICK!— Apollo Creed
