A good deal for Phillies WITH UPDATES ON CHAPMAN, HAPP
UPDATE, 8:45pm
A good deal for Phillies WITH UPDATES ON CHAPMAN, HAPP
Andy Martino
UPDATE, 8:45pm
Here's where we are as of Tuesday evening: A press conference officially introducing Roy Halladay as the newest Phillie will likely occur tomorrow at Citizens Bank Park, according to a source with direct knowledge of the team's plans.
The event could still, however, be delayed another day if medical reviews are not completed for all players involved in the deal. For coverage of the day's unfolding events, see below.
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The Halladay/Lee deal is "very unlikely" to be made official today, according to a person familiar with the talks. An official announcement could very well come tomorrow. The process could still accelerate and lead to an announcement later today.
There has been some unrest in my inbox this morning about reports of this trade. The widely reported deal is a good one for the Phillies, but your concerns are understandable. Reports varied yesterday evening, but the framework has now come into focus as pretty much this:
Phillies get: Roy Halladay from Toronto, 20-year-old righthander Phillippe Aumont form Seattle, 21-year-old righty J.C. Ramirez from Seattle, and 21-year-old outfielder Tyson Gillies from Seattle.
Toronto gets: Righty Kyle Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor, catcher Travis d’Arnaud.
Seattle gets: Cliff Lee
This could still change up until the moment it is announced.
Let’s run through some of the reservations and questions:
Why did it have to be Cliff Lee?
The Phillies at first tried to move Joe Blanton’s approximately $7 million salary, but that apparently did not go anywhere. It would have been very difficult to find a team to take on that money and trade decent prospects for Blanton.
That left the Phils with the option of trading Lee. The lefty will make $9 million in 2010, and the team expected he would become a free agent after the season. Lee’s agent told us yesterday that wasn’t necessarily true. But even if he did sign an extension, it would have been for significantly more money than the Phils are reportedly giving Halladay.
According to ESPN, Halladay will make $15.75 million next season, and $60 million for the next three years. That’s an unbelieveable bargain, and the best part about it is the length; you’re not locking this guy up until he’s over-the-hill (he’s 32 now). Lee’s buddy CC Sabathia got seven years, $161 million last winter, by comparison. More money, more years. And Lee might look for something like that in 11 months.
The idea that Lee and Halladay could be part of the same rotation next year was never realistic. The Phils maintained they did not have the room in their payroll. That room might have been created by trading Blanton, but they couldn’t.
And while Lee was spectacular in the World Series, Roy Halladay is a better pitcher. Look it up.
But we thought Drabek was untouchable…
Baseball America projects Drabek as a potential no. 2 or no. 3 starter. He has already undergone Tommy John surgery, and the team shut him down this summer for precautionary reasons. Keep in mind that most highly-touted pitchers do not become stars. It is difficult to imagine that he will be comparable in any way to Halladay over the next four years.
Also, this is much easier for the Phils to absorb, because they are receiving a highly-touted pitcher. Aumont is a former no. 1 draft pick, and he struck out Kevin Youkilis and Curtis Granderson while pitching for Team Canada in last March’s World Baseball Classic.
Ramirez is raw. He was 8-10 with a 5.12 ERA last season, but his perceived potential led Baseball America to rank him as the no.5 prospect in the Mariners’ system.
Will either Aumont or Ramirez become major league stars? Not likely. It is never likely that pitching prospects will become solid major leaguers. But they do help ease the hit to the farm system caused by this trade.
Someone told us that that Michael Taylor was going to be an All-Star…
Michael Taylor seems like a very smart, very grounded person, and we wish him the best. And he may well enjoy a productive career. But baseball people like Domonic Brown much more. The Phils kept Brown out of this deal, a negotiating victory.
Gillies, by the way, played in the Futures Game last year, a showcase for top minor league talent.
It’s not just that they gave up Lee, Drabek, Taylor, d’Arnaud. They gave up Marson, Carrasco, et. al….
Don’t let Ruben Amaro fool you when he says he gave up a lot for Lee last summer. I will be surprised if any one of Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Jason Knapp ever makes an All-Star team. The Indians needed to shed payroll last summer, and took a package of lesser prospects for their ace.
Look, two things that fans love are postseason performers and top prospects. That’s what people get excited about, and connect to emotionally. Very reasonable. But I believe that this move makes it more likely that the Phils will enjoy several more World Series appearances. It makes them a bit better next year, and much, much better in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
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Here's an add-on after getting some more emails: You're right, this trade as currently constructed is not technically a three-team trade. The Phils are reportedly acquiring Halladay from Toronto for prospects, while also trading Lee to Seattle for prospects. But the issue of payroll is still central to this, and prospects are also important. After giving up some of their top youngsters to get Halladay, the Phils wanted to replenish their system. So they got highly-regarded guys from Seattle.
Also, though multiple reports have Halladay and the Phils agreeing on the extension, an official announcement still does not appear likely until tomorrow. Lots of moving parts here, and medical records to be exchanged.
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The Phils have made the signing of Ross Gload official. Gload passed his physical today. The 33-year-old lefthanded bench player essentially replaces Matt Stairs. He led the major leagues with 21 pinch-hits last year, and tied for the major league lead with 15 pinch hit RBIs.
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Also, the Phillies ended up sending two scouts to see Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman throw in Houston today, according to a team source. But they are not believed to have serious interest in pursuing the pitcher.
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Another update for you: Contrary to a report, J.A. Happ did not take a physical yesterday, and has not done so recently or in connection with any trade, team source says.
I understand the logic of the deal, I just don't agree with it. Why give up Drabek now when you wouldnt give him up last summer? We are basically giving up twice the prospects for what amounts to one pitcher. Even if they let Lee walk AFTER next year, we would get a 1st rd pick. They should have traded Blanton, even if it netted them subpar prospects. The chance to have Lee and Halladay in the same rotation was worth it.— jfd6812- I understand the logic of the deal, I just don't agree with it. Why give up Drabek now when you wouldnt give him up last summer? We are basically giving up twice the prospects for what amounts to one pitcher. Even if they let Lee walk AFTER next year, we would get a 1st rd pick. They should have traded Blanton, even if it netted them subpar prospects. The chance to have Lee and Halladay in the same rotation was worth it.— jfd6812
This is not a three-team deal if it goes down as Andy has it here. I don't see anybody going from Seattle to Toronto. It's two separate trades. Which means the Phillies are trading Cliff Lee for these three uncertain Seattle prospects. Which means that the Phils STILL don't want to think like a top-echelon club, with a top-echelon payroll. Why should Halladay and Lee on the same staff not be "realistic"? It would be for the Yanks (Sabathia, Burnett) or BoSox (Beckett, Lackey). Halladay, Lee and Hamels in 2010 would have given the team a big chance to win the World Series, but with just Halladay and Hamels, the Phils come up short again. I am peeved.- Lot of spinning by Murphy here you would almost think he is on the Phillies pay-roll. If you think you can trade seven prospects away all who were ranked in the top 50 or so of prospects in baseball at one time or another and not have multiple of them turn into at least good major league players at some point I think you have to be crazy. Also, Espn is saying Domonic Brown in the package now not Michael Taylor. If this turns out to basically being Marson, Carrasco, Knapp, Donald, Drabek, D'Arnaud, and Brown for Roy Hallayday I am going to be stunned quite frankly. The prospects they are getting from Seattle are window dressing. They could have probably had Hallayday for Drabek and Brown last year and kept all those others guys.— brannigan73
- lee wasn't gonna sign a extension with the phils that basically forced the phils traded for halladay, at the expense of drebek and taylor. Given the circumstances, Im okay with this trade since we can lock up hallday for the next 4 years (during his prime too). I just wished that Lee would sign the extension so the trade phils never would have needed to make the trade. What im really curious about is how good Aumont, Ramirez, and Gillies is. I've read on ESPN that Aumont and Ramirez are top two mariner pitchin prospects, but mariners dont have too good of a farm so.....?— broad
- This deal is really two deals. I'm fine (though disappointed that we just didn't do this during last summer) with the Halladay trade. But the value on the return on Lee...is terrible. What the heck are they thinking? They could be leveraging the Angels and others..but instead jump at the first offer by the M's? If no M's prospects are needed in the Halladay trade then Ruben should wait and if they most trade Lee, get the best value. Stop being such a homer Andy— Westphilfan
- If the Phillies had a minor league player making minimum dollars at third base, plus Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, they would likely win the 2010 World Series. If the Phillies had minor league players making minimum dollars at third base and left field, plus Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, they would likely win the 2010 World Series.— Gnip Gnop
- The Halliday deal is good, the Lee deal is awful. The difference in price between Blanton and Lee is less than 2 million and he's going to walk after this year too. Why Amaro let his ego get in the way and dealt Lee instead of Blanton was downright stupid. The free agent compensation for Lee would be better than Blanton and had you kept Lee for this year you have an excellent chance to beat the Yankees in the World Series. By trading Lee you make yourself really marginally better than last year. I can't believe how badly Amaro screwed this up, boy those who thought Arbuckle should have gotten the G.M. job got a lot of ammo with the give away of Lee. He should have just given Toronto what they asked for last summer cause he gave away more in the end if you look at all he gave up between the Lee and Halliday deals and got back in the suspects he got back for Lee.— JBS67
- But andy, the team is in no better position to win against the big boys as opposed to last year, and now we dont even have the hopes of drabek maybe helping them late next summer going into the playoffs. Thats where the dissapointment lies. We all know in the long term that the phils now have an ace. Stop telling us this!!!! The problem is that this team is in the same boat as last world series. 1 ace and a prayer. Will smoltz be the broken down has been that gets the game 2 start this year as we all have to wonder if he has 1 good game left?? Couldnt get prospects and get a team to take on blanton's salary?? Why do you need prospects for blanton?? Get a bag of balls for him!! The bonus is you get 1 more year of Lee and a real legit shot at a ring where you can stand up to the sox or yankees, not have to hope you get all the breaks and the bounces, just to compete with them for 6 games. This core has maybe 3 years tops left. We all know Werth is gone after this year as he will command big dollars. You go for it right now and go over the budget for 1 golden shot at another ring. Yeah, Im spending someone elses money but Im also spending on tickets and merchandise like everyone else who hopd the phils were a truely elite franchise that goes for it all when the window is open, which is right now!! as it stands, unless Happ is the sandy koufax that some think he is (and he's not!), this team will be just what the team ownder want, a "competitive" 90-92 win team that prays that all the breaks will go their way if they get deep in the playoffs again. We all love Halladay. Thats not the issue. The cardinals and Braves both have better and deeper staffs, not to mention the american leagues top teams, including the team in seattle who just sent iffy prospects to the phils for a legitimate post-season ace. All these facts are why there is an overall letdown feeling amongst the fans.— sjmatt99
- If you are not a first round pick like M Taylor was not, then baseball "experts" never predict they will be all-stars because if they do they'll be asked why they did not rate them higher. Michael Taylor will be an all star and he will probably compete for Rookie of the year next year. Lets not bad mouth him just because we traded they guy, we just have room for him unless we moved Ben.— tsump
- Hate giving up both Taylor and Drabek. too much!!— PhillyNH
- I'm also ok with Halladay for Lee - and I'm in favor. Just don't agree with the prospect swap. We basically got nothing for Lee; the prospects from the Mariners are what should have been sent to the Jays. I f that ment they needed to included higher level prospects to get Lee than so be it.— tomoli
- Bittersweet losing exciting prospects and Lee in the deal, but this definitely makes the Phillies better. I'll stay on the fence about the new prospects until I learn more about them. Andy, look forward to reading your reports on them in the future.— telly
- We need to stop calling this a three team trade. It's two separate trades by the Phils since none of the prospects from Seattle are going to Toronto. Had we not done the stupid thing of signing Moyer to two years last year, we may have been able to keep both. I hate the Lee to Seattle part of this. How many more shots are we going to get at the World Series? Halladay and Lee would have been great in the rotation for this season. Sure, we're looking to be the best in the NL, but that wasn't good enough to win the World Series this year. Take a great shot this coming year and then who cares if Lee leaves at the end of this season. Is it a crime to go into the season with a solid set rotation instead of fooling around with several crappy options for the number five starter? And with the dough they're raking in at CBP, how can you have a strict budget when you have a chance to do something like this? Wouldn't you think the owners would make even more money with an even better team? I can't believe I'm not happy with this whole situation, but it's not necessary to trade Lee and we're going to do it anyway because of those owners who probably just pulled $140 million as a budget out of the air.— tsmagnum73
- only thing you can really argue is they didn't get enough in return from Seattle. Seattle is getting the best end of this deal in the short run. We'll see in the long run.— craigkmg
