A good deal for Phillies WITH UPDATES ON CHAPMAN, HAPP
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A good deal for Phillies WITH UPDATES ON CHAPMAN, HAPP
Andy Martino
UPDATE, 8:45pm
Here's where we are as of Tuesday evening: A press conference officially introducing Roy Halladay as the newest Phillie will likely occur tomorrow at Citizens Bank Park, according to a source with direct knowledge of the team's plans.
The event could still, however, be delayed another day if medical reviews are not completed for all players involved in the deal. For coverage of the day's unfolding events, see below.
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The Halladay/Lee deal is "very unlikely" to be made official today, according to a person familiar with the talks. An official announcement could very well come tomorrow. The process could still accelerate and lead to an announcement later today.
There has been some unrest in my inbox this morning about reports of this trade. The widely reported deal is a good one for the Phillies, but your concerns are understandable. Reports varied yesterday evening, but the framework has now come into focus as pretty much this:
Phillies get: Roy Halladay from Toronto, 20-year-old righthander Phillippe Aumont form Seattle, 21-year-old righty J.C. Ramirez from Seattle, and 21-year-old outfielder Tyson Gillies from Seattle.
Toronto gets: Righty Kyle Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor, catcher Travis d’Arnaud.
Seattle gets: Cliff Lee
This could still change up until the moment it is announced.
Let’s run through some of the reservations and questions:
Why did it have to be Cliff Lee?
The Phillies at first tried to move Joe Blanton’s approximately $7 million salary, but that apparently did not go anywhere. It would have been very difficult to find a team to take on that money and trade decent prospects for Blanton.
That left the Phils with the option of trading Lee. The lefty will make $9 million in 2010, and the team expected he would become a free agent after the season. Lee’s agent told us yesterday that wasn’t necessarily true. But even if he did sign an extension, it would have been for significantly more money than the Phils are reportedly giving Halladay.
According to ESPN, Halladay will make $15.75 million next season, and $60 million for the next three years. That’s an unbelieveable bargain, and the best part about it is the length; you’re not locking this guy up until he’s over-the-hill (he’s 32 now). Lee’s buddy CC Sabathia got seven years, $161 million last winter, by comparison. More money, more years. And Lee might look for something like that in 11 months.
The idea that Lee and Halladay could be part of the same rotation next year was never realistic. The Phils maintained they did not have the room in their payroll. That room might have been created by trading Blanton, but they couldn’t.
And while Lee was spectacular in the World Series, Roy Halladay is a better pitcher. Look it up.
But we thought Drabek was untouchable…
Baseball America projects Drabek as a potential no. 2 or no. 3 starter. He has already undergone Tommy John surgery, and the team shut him down this summer for precautionary reasons. Keep in mind that most highly-touted pitchers do not become stars. It is difficult to imagine that he will be comparable in any way to Halladay over the next four years.
Also, this is much easier for the Phils to absorb, because they are receiving a highly-touted pitcher. Aumont is a former no. 1 draft pick, and he struck out Kevin Youkilis and Curtis Granderson while pitching for Team Canada in last March’s World Baseball Classic.
Ramirez is raw. He was 8-10 with a 5.12 ERA last season, but his perceived potential led Baseball America to rank him as the no.5 prospect in the Mariners’ system.
Will either Aumont or Ramirez become major league stars? Not likely. It is never likely that pitching prospects will become solid major leaguers. But they do help ease the hit to the farm system caused by this trade.
Someone told us that that Michael Taylor was going to be an All-Star…
Michael Taylor seems like a very smart, very grounded person, and we wish him the best. And he may well enjoy a productive career. But baseball people like Domonic Brown much more. The Phils kept Brown out of this deal, a negotiating victory.
Gillies, by the way, played in the Futures Game last year, a showcase for top minor league talent.
It’s not just that they gave up Lee, Drabek, Taylor, d’Arnaud. They gave up Marson, Carrasco, et. al….
Don’t let Ruben Amaro fool you when he says he gave up a lot for Lee last summer. I will be surprised if any one of Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Jason Knapp ever makes an All-Star team. The Indians needed to shed payroll last summer, and took a package of lesser prospects for their ace.
Look, two things that fans love are postseason performers and top prospects. That’s what people get excited about, and connect to emotionally. Very reasonable. But I believe that this move makes it more likely that the Phils will enjoy several more World Series appearances. It makes them a bit better next year, and much, much better in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
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Here's an add-on after getting some more emails: You're right, this trade as currently constructed is not technically a three-team trade. The Phils are reportedly acquiring Halladay from Toronto for prospects, while also trading Lee to Seattle for prospects. But the issue of payroll is still central to this, and prospects are also important. After giving up some of their top youngsters to get Halladay, the Phils wanted to replenish their system. So they got highly-regarded guys from Seattle.
Also, though multiple reports have Halladay and the Phils agreeing on the extension, an official announcement still does not appear likely until tomorrow. Lots of moving parts here, and medical records to be exchanged.
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The Phils have made the signing of Ross Gload official. Gload passed his physical today. The 33-year-old lefthanded bench player essentially replaces Matt Stairs. He led the major leagues with 21 pinch-hits last year, and tied for the major league lead with 15 pinch hit RBIs.
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Also, the Phillies ended up sending two scouts to see Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman throw in Houston today, according to a team source. But they are not believed to have serious interest in pursuing the pitcher.
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Another update for you: Contrary to a report, J.A. Happ did not take a physical yesterday, and has not done so recently or in connection with any trade, team source says.
Andy, your argument is that it's a good deal because none of the 7 prospects will be good major leaguers? Seems like the odds are against you there. My problem with this incarnation of the trade is our return for Lee. It's worse than what Cleveland got for him! Something here still isn't right.— sla6yer- I like the Phils getting Halladay, but I don't like them sacrificing Lee unnecessarily. Why don't the Phils just give Toronto the players it has been asking for all along - Drabek, Taylor and D'Arnaud, in exchange for Halladay, and keep Lee for another year? That would give the Phils the strongest 1-2 pitching in baseball and give the Phils another year to try resigning Lee. As it stands, the Phils and Toronto are making the trade they talked about last sesason, and the Phils are trading Lee to Seattle for 2 minor league pitchers - Phillippe Aumont (right-hander, 1-4 with a 5.09 ERA in Class AA) and Juan Ramirez (right-hander, 8-12 with a 5.12 ERA in Class A), and one minor league outfielder - Tyson Gillies (bats left, hit .341 in Class A). If this deal goes through as is, the Phils will have traded their once-heralded farm system for one pitcher (Halladay), a reserve outfielder (Francisco) and three Class A - AA prospects. In less than a year, the Phils will have traded away the cream of its minor league system - Drabek, Carrasco, Knapp, Marson, D'Arnaud, Taylor and Donald, in its hunt for an improved pitching rotation. A Halladay win doesn't count more than a Lee win. The Phils couldn't win the world series with only one dominant pitcher, and just replacing one ace with another may not be enough. A house cleaning that gave the Phils Halladay and Lee, even for only one year, may have had some merit. Sacrificing Lee, as well as the farm, for Halladay makes no sense. I understand that there are financial considerations to fielding a major league baseball team, but if the Phils are to compete with the Yankees, they're going to have to start thinking like and spending the Yankees. Winning a world series is the dream of every player. Maybe the Phils front office needs to have a sitdown with some players and start restructuring a few contracts.
- we r getting seattles top 2 pitching prospects— GetMeToThePlateBoys
Comment removed.- There's are a lot of practical considerations I can get my head around in this even-up swap of aces, but since wasn't it just this past July that Drabek's name and projected talent was attached to Tom Seaver rather than Jerry Koosman? When did he drop to a projected #2 or #3 starter. If that's all he's expected to be, I'm fine with this move - provided that I hear no more whining from the Phils about maintaining their $140 million payroll. If they then turn around and dump Blanton, this deal shows little respect to those of us who pack into Citizens Bank Park and snap up t-shirts and jerseys of our favorite Phils.— frankenslade
Thanks Andy. This column was better for my nerves than the cocktail of numerous antidepressants I took after reading the articles from late last evening on this trade. Now if they'd just land one more stud for the bullpen they can start the presses rolling on 2010 Series tickets.- Comment removed.
- Jamie Moyer. 8 freakin million $.
- Ace for Ace Maybe? But now you have an Ace for four Years vs. an Ace for 1 year. I really like Lee and felt he was a good fit, little quirky but really like his no nonsense work ethic. I agree, Halladay is a bit better though. Forget the prospects, the window is open, this is a good move.— phillyfanintx
- Well, I guess 1 good thing about this deal is that it keeps Halladay away from the Yanklees, Red Sox, Angels & Dodgers.— DMo
- Drabek is no better of a prospect than Aumont so this is basically a wash. Good deal by the Phils you essentially traded Lee for Halladay and were able to lock up Halladay for 3 more years at a slight discount.— Rod72
- either...if you want negative stuff read Conlin.— stoky
- Funboy hit the nail on the head. We are no closer to beating the Yankees if we give up Lee. We need both him AND Halladay to have a shot at another championship. Give 'em Hamels instead.— BroadStreet
- The Phillies are getting the BEST PITCHER IN ALL OF BASEBALL for the next 3 or 4 years. They're not like the Yankees and Red Sox who have unlimited payrolls and can just buy what they want. Only giving up Lee for one more year and a bunch of minor leaguers makes this an absolute steal....anybody remember the good old quiet, comfortable, title-less days of Ed Wade...do you want that back again.— joberzut
- How does this deal make the Phillies better this year? If the goal it to win the World Series, this trade just swaps #1 starters, nothing else. The Yankees, Red Sox and Brave have all improved, we need to be able to beat those teams and while Halladay for 3 years is nice it doesn't really improve the team.— lance71
