A good deal for Phillies WITH UPDATES ON CHAPMAN, HAPP
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A good deal for Phillies WITH UPDATES ON CHAPMAN, HAPP
Andy Martino
UPDATE, 8:45pm
Here's where we are as of Tuesday evening: A press conference officially introducing Roy Halladay as the newest Phillie will likely occur tomorrow at Citizens Bank Park, according to a source with direct knowledge of the team's plans.
The event could still, however, be delayed another day if medical reviews are not completed for all players involved in the deal. For coverage of the day's unfolding events, see below.
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The Halladay/Lee deal is "very unlikely" to be made official today, according to a person familiar with the talks. An official announcement could very well come tomorrow. The process could still accelerate and lead to an announcement later today.
There has been some unrest in my inbox this morning about reports of this trade. The widely reported deal is a good one for the Phillies, but your concerns are understandable. Reports varied yesterday evening, but the framework has now come into focus as pretty much this:
Phillies get: Roy Halladay from Toronto, 20-year-old righthander Phillippe Aumont form Seattle, 21-year-old righty J.C. Ramirez from Seattle, and 21-year-old outfielder Tyson Gillies from Seattle.
Toronto gets: Righty Kyle Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor, catcher Travis d’Arnaud.
Seattle gets: Cliff Lee
This could still change up until the moment it is announced.
Let’s run through some of the reservations and questions:
Why did it have to be Cliff Lee?
The Phillies at first tried to move Joe Blanton’s approximately $7 million salary, but that apparently did not go anywhere. It would have been very difficult to find a team to take on that money and trade decent prospects for Blanton.
That left the Phils with the option of trading Lee. The lefty will make $9 million in 2010, and the team expected he would become a free agent after the season. Lee’s agent told us yesterday that wasn’t necessarily true. But even if he did sign an extension, it would have been for significantly more money than the Phils are reportedly giving Halladay.
According to ESPN, Halladay will make $15.75 million next season, and $60 million for the next three years. That’s an unbelieveable bargain, and the best part about it is the length; you’re not locking this guy up until he’s over-the-hill (he’s 32 now). Lee’s buddy CC Sabathia got seven years, $161 million last winter, by comparison. More money, more years. And Lee might look for something like that in 11 months.
The idea that Lee and Halladay could be part of the same rotation next year was never realistic. The Phils maintained they did not have the room in their payroll. That room might have been created by trading Blanton, but they couldn’t.
And while Lee was spectacular in the World Series, Roy Halladay is a better pitcher. Look it up.
But we thought Drabek was untouchable…
Baseball America projects Drabek as a potential no. 2 or no. 3 starter. He has already undergone Tommy John surgery, and the team shut him down this summer for precautionary reasons. Keep in mind that most highly-touted pitchers do not become stars. It is difficult to imagine that he will be comparable in any way to Halladay over the next four years.
Also, this is much easier for the Phils to absorb, because they are receiving a highly-touted pitcher. Aumont is a former no. 1 draft pick, and he struck out Kevin Youkilis and Curtis Granderson while pitching for Team Canada in last March’s World Baseball Classic.
Ramirez is raw. He was 8-10 with a 5.12 ERA last season, but his perceived potential led Baseball America to rank him as the no.5 prospect in the Mariners’ system.
Will either Aumont or Ramirez become major league stars? Not likely. It is never likely that pitching prospects will become solid major leaguers. But they do help ease the hit to the farm system caused by this trade.
Someone told us that that Michael Taylor was going to be an All-Star…
Michael Taylor seems like a very smart, very grounded person, and we wish him the best. And he may well enjoy a productive career. But baseball people like Domonic Brown much more. The Phils kept Brown out of this deal, a negotiating victory.
Gillies, by the way, played in the Futures Game last year, a showcase for top minor league talent.
It’s not just that they gave up Lee, Drabek, Taylor, d’Arnaud. They gave up Marson, Carrasco, et. al….
Don’t let Ruben Amaro fool you when he says he gave up a lot for Lee last summer. I will be surprised if any one of Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Jason Knapp ever makes an All-Star team. The Indians needed to shed payroll last summer, and took a package of lesser prospects for their ace.
Look, two things that fans love are postseason performers and top prospects. That’s what people get excited about, and connect to emotionally. Very reasonable. But I believe that this move makes it more likely that the Phils will enjoy several more World Series appearances. It makes them a bit better next year, and much, much better in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
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Here's an add-on after getting some more emails: You're right, this trade as currently constructed is not technically a three-team trade. The Phils are reportedly acquiring Halladay from Toronto for prospects, while also trading Lee to Seattle for prospects. But the issue of payroll is still central to this, and prospects are also important. After giving up some of their top youngsters to get Halladay, the Phils wanted to replenish their system. So they got highly-regarded guys from Seattle.
Also, though multiple reports have Halladay and the Phils agreeing on the extension, an official announcement still does not appear likely until tomorrow. Lots of moving parts here, and medical records to be exchanged.
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The Phils have made the signing of Ross Gload official. Gload passed his physical today. The 33-year-old lefthanded bench player essentially replaces Matt Stairs. He led the major leagues with 21 pinch-hits last year, and tied for the major league lead with 15 pinch hit RBIs.
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Also, the Phillies ended up sending two scouts to see Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman throw in Houston today, according to a team source. But they are not believed to have serious interest in pursuing the pitcher.
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Another update for you: Contrary to a report, J.A. Happ did not take a physical yesterday, and has not done so recently or in connection with any trade, team source says.
Either/or is right. the return on lee is so abd it was worth declinign blantons arb to free up salary and keeping halladay-lee together for one year. or, they could have made the hallday deal and waited for a beter return on lee.— RG- What everyone has to realize is that Lee will absolutely hit the open market next winter because that's exactly what he and his agent want. He's not interested in signing an extension, according to virtually every pro scout, because he feels he can get Sabathia money as a free agent. The Phillies probably would have lost him after this year to an overbidder (i.e., the Yanks, BoSox or Cubs). So it comes down to...would you rather have Halladay for the next 4-5 years, or Lee for just next season? I don't like the idea of giving up Drabek, but to get a stud you have to give up highly touted prospects. And I completely agree with Martino's assessment of the 4 "prospects" traded for Lee last summer.— clowns96
- Andy...somewhere, somehow explain this. I don't get it either. "how does it make them "much, much better in 2011, 2012, and 2013?"— gspangen
- pls ask ruben - how does the deal announced equip us to beat the yankees in next year's series... as everyone knows - lee was the solution, not the problem, last post season. so the problem was the starters not named lee... now that you've replaced him and traded 3 top prospects how does this make us better?— terryharmon
- I think this deal, after getting the whole package, will be a great for the Phils. Halladay is a stud and you have him for 4 yrs at a good price which is critical to keeping the team at the top. Lee will be missed but Roy will make Lee a pleasant memory. Not worried about the prospects. They are what they are, prospects.— walt1
- Why not just trade Drabek, Taylor, and d’Arnaud to Toronto for Halladay, and keep Lee? Seattle has no effect on Toronto's deal.— bgcrimson29
- ESF, you know it. It's a good deal. Prospects are just that, prospects. Most never pan out. The Phils couldn't run the risk of Lee walking away next year with Halladay off the table. Then they'd be searching for second rate pitching. The Fightin's will be just fine. Halladay is a much better pitcher than Lee with more consistency. All you up and coming GM's need to chill...— Jamerock
- Nice work Andy, thanks.— furio
- Assuming the deal goes through, you watch, Lee will be THE midseason trade deadline discussion point. The M's will be out of it, and with Lee non-committal to resign, the M's will look to trade him for prospects. Maybe the Phils could send them their prospects back for Lee? Haha. Even if only for a 3 month rental, it might be worth it. Maybe Lee would be more willing to sign with the Phillies after pitching half a year on a bad team. Wishful thinking, but you never know. But guaranteed, this summer's biggest midseason trade discussion will be which team will trade for Lee.— FireChrisWheeler!
- GET THE STINKIN' GAME 6 BOX SCORE OFF THE PAGE!!!— lefty13153
- Dull -- Brown is 20 or 21. Let's wait until he's 26 and making the same mistakes.— ematusko
- "This is a pointless trade. You substitute one ace for another, lose several prospects...and for what exactly? A right-handed starter? I don't care how Halladay and Lee's stats compare...Lee was sensational last year. What I want to know is this...would Halladay have pitched as well as Lee pitched, in the playoffs and World Series? You cannot answer that, because you don't know. With Lee we know." Is your memory that impaired? Lee must be the best pitcher in baseball if he had a great playoff run, just like Hamels the year before. How did that turn out? You NEVER know what you're going to get out of your starters, but Halladay is and has been a top 5 pitcher consistently. He is a flat out stud. Nothing else to it— poopfeast
Prospects are maybes; Halladay is a definite. This deal is a winner. And as to the argument that the Phils are short on SP, name an NL team with a better rotation than Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and Kendrick/Moyer. The only one with an argument is the Braves, who struggle to hit the ball out of the infield.— jpk- you people are all completly insane and know nothing about baseball...we traded a very good pitcher in lee for an elite pitcher in holliday...aumont and drabak are a wash..and the rest of the deal was just prospect swaps....i dont know how anyone could not like this deal— fkd629
Taylor = MLB ready (Organization rumors) - Drabek - potential hit the Majors by July and remain there - similar to Hamels. Those two alone carry more than the Mariners prospects. I want more value for Lee.— dpcoz
