A good deal for Phillies WITH UPDATES ON CHAPMAN, HAPP
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A good deal for Phillies WITH UPDATES ON CHAPMAN, HAPP
UPDATE, 8:45pm
Here's where we are as of Tuesday evening: A press conference officially introducing Roy Halladay as the newest Phillie will likely occur tomorrow at Citizens Bank Park, according to a source with direct knowledge of the team's plans.
The event could still, however, be delayed another day if medical reviews are not completed for all players involved in the deal. For coverage of the day's unfolding events, see below.
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The Halladay/Lee deal is "very unlikely" to be made official today, according to a person familiar with the talks. An official announcement could very well come tomorrow. The process could still accelerate and lead to an announcement later today.
There has been some unrest in my inbox this morning about reports of this trade. The widely reported deal is a good one for the Phillies, but your concerns are understandable. Reports varied yesterday evening, but the framework has now come into focus as pretty much this:
Phillies get: Roy Halladay from Toronto, 20-year-old righthander Phillippe Aumont form Seattle, 21-year-old righty J.C. Ramirez from Seattle, and 21-year-old outfielder Tyson Gillies from Seattle.
Toronto gets: Righty Kyle Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor, catcher Travis d’Arnaud.
Seattle gets: Cliff Lee
This could still change up until the moment it is announced.
Let’s run through some of the reservations and questions:
Why did it have to be Cliff Lee?
The Phillies at first tried to move Joe Blanton’s approximately $7 million salary, but that apparently did not go anywhere. It would have been very difficult to find a team to take on that money and trade decent prospects for Blanton.
That left the Phils with the option of trading Lee. The lefty will make $9 million in 2010, and the team expected he would become a free agent after the season. Lee’s agent told us yesterday that wasn’t necessarily true. But even if he did sign an extension, it would have been for significantly more money than the Phils are reportedly giving Halladay.
According to ESPN, Halladay will make $15.75 million next season, and $60 million for the next three years. That’s an unbelieveable bargain, and the best part about it is the length; you’re not locking this guy up until he’s over-the-hill (he’s 32 now). Lee’s buddy CC Sabathia got seven years, $161 million last winter, by comparison. More money, more years. And Lee might look for something like that in 11 months.
The idea that Lee and Halladay could be part of the same rotation next year was never realistic. The Phils maintained they did not have the room in their payroll. That room might have been created by trading Blanton, but they couldn’t.
And while Lee was spectacular in the World Series, Roy Halladay is a better pitcher. Look it up.
But we thought Drabek was untouchable…
Baseball America projects Drabek as a potential no. 2 or no. 3 starter. He has already undergone Tommy John surgery, and the team shut him down this summer for precautionary reasons. Keep in mind that most highly-touted pitchers do not become stars. It is difficult to imagine that he will be comparable in any way to Halladay over the next four years.
Also, this is much easier for the Phils to absorb, because they are receiving a highly-touted pitcher. Aumont is a former no. 1 draft pick, and he struck out Kevin Youkilis and Curtis Granderson while pitching for Team Canada in last March’s World Baseball Classic.
Ramirez is raw. He was 8-10 with a 5.12 ERA last season, but his perceived potential led Baseball America to rank him as the no.5 prospect in the Mariners’ system.
Will either Aumont or Ramirez become major league stars? Not likely. It is never likely that pitching prospects will become solid major leaguers. But they do help ease the hit to the farm system caused by this trade.
Someone told us that that Michael Taylor was going to be an All-Star…
Michael Taylor seems like a very smart, very grounded person, and we wish him the best. And he may well enjoy a productive career. But baseball people like Domonic Brown much more. The Phils kept Brown out of this deal, a negotiating victory.
Gillies, by the way, played in the Futures Game last year, a showcase for top minor league talent.
It’s not just that they gave up Lee, Drabek, Taylor, d’Arnaud. They gave up Marson, Carrasco, et. al….
Don’t let Ruben Amaro fool you when he says he gave up a lot for Lee last summer. I will be surprised if any one of Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Jason Knapp ever makes an All-Star team. The Indians needed to shed payroll last summer, and took a package of lesser prospects for their ace.
Look, two things that fans love are postseason performers and top prospects. That’s what people get excited about, and connect to emotionally. Very reasonable. But I believe that this move makes it more likely that the Phils will enjoy several more World Series appearances. It makes them a bit better next year, and much, much better in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
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Here's an add-on after getting some more emails: You're right, this trade as currently constructed is not technically a three-team trade. The Phils are reportedly acquiring Halladay from Toronto for prospects, while also trading Lee to Seattle for prospects. But the issue of payroll is still central to this, and prospects are also important. After giving up some of their top youngsters to get Halladay, the Phils wanted to replenish their system. So they got highly-regarded guys from Seattle.
Also, though multiple reports have Halladay and the Phils agreeing on the extension, an official announcement still does not appear likely until tomorrow. Lots of moving parts here, and medical records to be exchanged.
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The Phils have made the signing of Ross Gload official. Gload passed his physical today. The 33-year-old lefthanded bench player essentially replaces Matt Stairs. He led the major leagues with 21 pinch-hits last year, and tied for the major league lead with 15 pinch hit RBIs.
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Also, the Phillies ended up sending two scouts to see Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman throw in Houston today, according to a team source. But they are not believed to have serious interest in pursuing the pitcher.
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Another update for you: Contrary to a report, J.A. Happ did not take a physical yesterday, and has not done so recently or in connection with any trade, team source says.
One day I hope to live in a world where a beat writer might possibly criticize the team he covers. The return on Cliff Lee is just awful, you have to get Triunfel or Saunders or Morrow if you are going to trade with the Mariners. I'd appreciate Ruben never calling Jack Z again.— Either/Or- I still fail to see the reason why Drabek is essential to the deal - why can't Toronto just take Seattle's minor leaguers, with either Taylor or d’Arnaud? Drabek was to be the team's answer at #5 by mid-season; now we've got to rely on Moyers/Kendrick and pray they don't fail every fifth day.— bdm155
come on, andy. I'm unimpressed with these prospects. Aumont was converted into a reliever, and Ramirez has been unimpressive in last two years of minor league ball. Gillies looks OK, but what happens when he gets into AA ball? Drabek would have hit the rotation by July and would have remained there. We are losing a staple (Oh, and Tommy John Surgery extends careers - ever watch the 'Real Sports' report about Kids gettign them done early? Se how Randy Wolf's still got a career in baseball?) I don't believe we're getting the right value for a projected starter this year in Drabek.— dpcoz- Andy, can you clarify your last sentence? I get that Doc makes them better, but how does it make them "much, much better in 2011, 2012, and 2013?" Werth is a free agent after 2010, Ibanez after 2011, and not sure about Howard, Rollins, Victorino, etc...— chrismaroldo
- Trade is a good one. Most of the haters out there will be changing thier tune come the all-star break when the Phillies once again have a very comfortable lead in the division.— ESFjellin
- I'm ok witrh Halladay for Lee - understand why 100% and I'm in favor. Just don't agree with the prospect swap - Drabek is a starter by July - and by then we're going to need him to replace either Kendrik or Moyer.— dpcoz
I hate this deal - it's certainly NOT a good deal for the Phillies. This deal is actually a smokescreen. The Phillies are no better now than they were during the 2009 postseason (unless Hamels improves). When do the Phillies work on improving? If they don't, they'll just lose in the World Series again.— sdgeiger- Thank you, Andy. If you thought this deal was a bad one, you'd say it. I appreciate your insight. In any case, you've got to admire Amaro's aggressiveness. I love to see the Phillies wheeling and dealing and playing with big boys and acting like an elite franchise.— wooderice
- This is a pointless trade. You substitute one ace for another, lose several prospects...and for what exactly? A right-handed starter? I don't care how Halladay and Lee's stats compare...Lee was sensational last year. What I want to know is this...would Halladay have pitched as well as Lee pitched, in the playoffs and World Series? You cannot answer that, because you don't know. With Lee we know. This isn't an improvement. Sitting still is better than this.— m8roth
- I think this deal makes a lot of sense, and it's a very nice breakdown...thanks Andy. Why keep Lee this next year with no chance of extending him? Some say they traded Lee for Lee. Well they did, but for a better Lee and one that didn't mind taking a discount to play where he wants to play. The one thing that still NEEDS to be done is to find someone for the back end of the bullpen, because otherwise we have a solid rotation, but are in the same situation as last year...good starting pitching with no one to turn the ball over to with confidence— trk3586
- I still have my reservations, but it appears that the Phillies have removed a lot of old bullpen pitchers with the prospect of getting some live young arms to fill in the blanks. We still have a big question mark in the number 5 hole, but who says the dealing is over? For those who don't like the trade, would you like it better if Lee bailed after next season, maybe to the Yankees, and his spot in the rotation was taken by Kyle Drabek? I don't think so. For a kid to have Tommy John surgery before he even makes it to the majors raises big questions.— Carmine
- If Aumont projects similarly to Drabek, the deal is reasonable, if Halladay signs for 3 more years at 60 million. But now, within 2 years either Brown needs to develop or we need to resign Werth.— Boethius
- Exactly sdgeiger. We can keep arguing over whether Lee woulda signed long term and for how much, how good these prospects will all be, etc. but truth is we don't know. I love Doc and think he is definitely more a sure thing than Lee but this is the real issue.....The goal in the playoffs is to win it all, ie find ways to improve on last season's run. Regardless of whether or not he can duplicate last year, Lee gave you wins every game he started. Yanks just added Grandy for essentially nothing to their ML roster. So if you go back and replace Cliff with Roy, at best, things stay unchanged. Therefore, you're still banking on Hamels and Lidge turnarounds and this deal itself doesn't really bring you any closer to the Yankees.— Funboy
- chrismaroldo- it makes them much better in 2011, 12 and 13 because they will have an ace that they wouldnt have had if they let Lee walk. Even if they did manage to extend Lee (at market value), the reported discount Halladay offered frees up a couple mill/yr to sign a werth/victorino or other FA's. Not a sexy move by Rube, but a very good one.
- All these chess moves and the Phils are still short on starting pitching unless they are planning on reupping Pedro or Jamie drinks from the fountain of youth or Dubee finally developes Kendrick. They have no starting pitching prospects in the minor league system now unless you count Andrew Carpenter and his 88 mph fastball and hanging curve. In several of the games I watched Domonic Brown play in last year his fielding left much to be desired, poor routes, running into the centerfielder, misjudging fly balls. His .229 batting average in the Arizona Fall League was not much comfort either.— Dull
