Debunking Jonathan Papelbon's non-save thing
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Debunking Jonathan Papelbon's non-save thing
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
When Dexter Fowler bounced one through the right side, Jonathan Papelbon could only look skyward. He had allowed another run in a non-save situation and probably a few watching in the Delaware Valley groaned, "See?"
Papelbon's usage is a topic that has incited debate, but the richest reliever in baseball history was pitching Wednesday in a tie game at home and that was expected.
He has allowed seven runs in 10 1/3 innings when pitching in non-save situations. He has yet to allow a run in the 17 1/3 innings he's pitched with a save on the line.
On numerous occasions in 2012, Papelbon has dismissed the notion of any difference between the two scenarios. His career numbers, a much larger sample size than three months in 2012, support that idea.
| I | Split | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in Sv Situ | 2.24 | 272 | 277.0 | 201 | 76 | 69 | 19 | 74 | 330 | 0.993 | 10.7 | 4.46 | |
| in non-Sv | 2.43 | 148 | 163.0 | 125 | 51 | 44 | 13 | 36 | 195 | 0.988 | 10.8 | 5.42 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Charlie Manuel agreed Papelbon's weird splits are happenstance.
"That's just the way it is, I don’t think that has anything to do with it," Manuel said. "I think he made pretty good pitches on Fowler. He threw a 2-2 pitch close. The ball Fowler hit was down, it might have been out of the strike zone, he just dropped the head of the bat on it and it happened to go in the right place."
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Buy Phillies tickets Comments (23)
does it matter what his career numbers say when it is so obviously the case THIS season? maybe it's coincidence, but I don't know why anyone would write it off and not track this stat as the season goes on.— phils_tnj1- getting 3 outs is 3 outs whatever the situation,right???...but obviously his mojo only works full blast in save situations..shouldn't be this way but the numbers do suggest otherwise...maybe he needs the services of a sports psychologist to help him through this because the disparity between the 2 scenarios is troubling and needs to be rectified...— jabac
- Papelbon is an egotistical head case; would not surprise me if he doen't put his all into non save situations.— JBinPA
- Baseball needs to stop being so obsessed with saves. If the heart of the order comes up in the 7th, why wouldn't you use your best pitcher there? How many close games might the Phillies have been better off stopping the damage early, but instead lost the game in the 7th or 8th and never even put Papelbon on the mound?— Pelti
- Phils and jabac...if you've ever taken a math or statistical class in your life you'd understand why career numbers mean a lot more than 2 months worth of numbers. You're actually trying to say that his numbers from 440 innings mean nothing compared to the most recent 27. Do you realize how stupid that is? What's happened this season is simply a statistical anomaly, simple as that. The more it happens the more there might be a slight mental edge to it, as, believe it or not, Papelbon is in fact a human being. Bottom line is that by the end of the season his save/non-save era's will wind up being a lot closer together, assuming manual keeps putting him out there in such situations.— birdsfaninnc
- before too many of you get worked up about him not performing well in tied games at home, ask yourself a very simple question...IF not Papelbon, then who? WHO do you want pitching in the 9th on this team? IS he the best reliever on the staff or not? If you DONT use him in the 9th, then you are hoping for extra innings and the opportunity to use him again in a tied situation later in the game. Given the youth and inconsistency of this bullpen this year as currently constructed, it really is the ultimate no brainer.
How he is used on the road..now that conversation has some merit...there are valid arguments to be made...but using him at home in the 9th when tied...seems to me anyone who argues otherwise needs to present a rational alternative.— TheLon - the bottom line is that Papelbon is ok, nothing more, comparable to other decent closers but not necessarily better than many of them, not as good as Madson was last season and certainly not worth $50 million, as he can be hit in save or non-save situations, but people fail to realize that many of his saves have been with more than 1 run leads so when he gives up a run it's stll a "save"... indeed people fail to realize that in Lidge's 48 save season in 2008, only 19 of the saves were with 1-run leads, so once again he was far from unhittable --and were it not for Rollins brilliant double play with bases loaded in 2008 divisison-clinching game against Nationals, not ony might his season not have been "perfect" but Phils might not have even made the post-season and he would have been rememebered like Mitch Williams for blowing the season... bottom line is that, except for maybe Mariano Rivera, closers are imperfect --generally failed starters, and only someone who knows nothing about baseball like cluless rube wastes his whole reliever budget on a single closer— warbiscuit
- @birdsfaninnc: I certainly have taken plenty of math and stat classes. I would also expect his numbers to trend toward his career numbers, but I said to keep tracking it. Some of the statistical inputs contributing to those career stats are now changed - new team, new venue, new coaches, mostly unfamiliar hitters, etc. So, yeah, it's worth following. And you might reconsider throwing the term "stupid" around so freely.— phils_tnj1
- Saves are a stupid stat. Getting 3 outs in one inning should not be that difficult. They start the inning fresh, no one on base. A real save would be bases loaded, no outs and the stopper comes in and gets 3 outs without a run scoring. Most better than average pitchers should be able to pitch one inning without giving up a run.— rolan01us
- Got the win - now let's get him some more save opportunities before passing judgment. 60+ appearances & we'll know what we've got. For the sake of reality, he hasn't blown a save this year (17 for 17), he wants the ball and doesn't make excuses plus his current ERA is lower than his ERA in his last two years in Boston and his career ERA. whatever's wrong, it isn't his fault.— Ed3
- Don't really care, just put up the "W's", just sayin'...— DJ
- The whole topic is ridiculous. A manager should be able to use a pitcher in a tight spot. I also can't take much more of hearing the idiot broadcasters pontificating about a closer's "adreneline rush". Who cares?????? If it's late in a game and the manager calls on you to pitch, you pitch!!! I don't see Jim Thome having a letdown when he bats with the bases empty. Enough of all this insanity.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- phils_tnj Quixote II nailed it. Focus on the here and now - it's totally irrelevant what happened before. Arguing statistics with regard to humanity is silly because it assumes everything stays constant - you can't make that assumption about the human body. For God's sake, we just went through this with Lidge, have you all forgotten already? Sure he was dynamite in '08, but does that mean we wanted him on the mound in '09-11? Clearly not.— evolutionary
- I agree about the stupidity of the "adrenaline rush" commentary.— Jeffy3
- I don't know about "adrenaline rush", but players do like to have consistent roles. I could see some closers (not necessarily Papelbon) thinking their role is to "save games" rather than just "get outs whenever called upon". I prefer the latter thought process, of course, but I could see how some closers might feel uncomfortable if that's not how they define their role.— phils_tnj1
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The Phillies Zone is the place for up-to-the-minute Phillies coverage from the Inquirer.
Matt Gelb
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