Crunching numbers for Phillies 2012 payroll
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Crunching numbers for Phillies 2012 payroll
Bob Brookover, Inquirer Baseball Columnist
This is a second version showing Cole Hamels as being arbitration eligible. Thanks to the fine editors who are also my readers.
General manager Ruben Amaro Jr.'s 10-word answer to a question about the Phillies' 2012 payroll received little attention Tuesday.
"Don't know yet," he said. "I would say it would be similar (to 2011)."
Given Amaro's plea for a change in the approach by his hitters and the pending free agency of shortstop Jimmy Rollins and closer Ryan Madson, it was understandable that the payroll was glossed over at this embryonic stage of the offseason.
Nevertheless, it will be an interesting subject at some point when the quest to either re-sign or replace Rollins and Madson intensifies.
For the record, the Phillies' payroll was somewhere between $175 and $180 million this season and it's possible, once player bonuses are factored in, that the team passed baseball's $178-million threshold that requires a team to pay a luxury tax of 22.5 percent for every dollar it spends above $178 million.
The luxury-tax number expands every year, but it figures to be a challenge for the Phillies to stay below that figure again in 2012, especially if they re-sign Rollins and Madson and pick up the $16 million option on Roy Oswalt.
If the Phillies pay a $2 million buyout to Oswalt and, as expected, a $1.5 million buyout to Brad Lidge, they will still owe $110.45 million to the nine players already under contract for next season. That total includes the $3.5 million buyout total for Oswalt and Lidge.
Here's the breakdown of those nine players: Cliff Lee ($21.5 million), Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay ($20 million each), Chase Utley ($15 million), Shane Victorino ($9.5 million), Joe Blanton ($8.5 million), Placido Polanco ($6.25 million), Carlos Ruiz ($3.7 million) and Jose Contreras ($2.5 million).
Lefthander Cole Hamels, right fielder Hunter Pence, extra outfielder Ben Francisco and pitcher Kyle Kendrick are among the Phillies players eligible for salary arbitration. Let's say the Phillies only decide to bring back Hamels, Pence and Kendrick. Being conservative, Hamels will likely get $14 million, Pence will likely get at least $10 million and Kendrick will get somewhere around $3 million, bringing the payroll to just under $137.5 million for 12 players.
Amaro said that even if the Phillies do not re-sign Madson, they plan on going outside the organization for an experienced closer. Whether it's Madson or somebody else with experience at the role, it's likely to cost at least $10 million, bringing the payroll to $147.5 million for 13 players.
To fill out the bullpen and the bench, it will likely cost roughly another $12 million, so the total is up to $159.5 million and you still need a shortstop.
Amaro said some of his lieutenants believe that Freddy Galvis is ready to play in the big leagues right now and others do not. Before that, he said he thought outfielder Domonic Brown could use 500 at-bats at the triple-A level before he's ready for another shot at the big leagues. Brown, 24, is more than two years older than Galvis, who just got his first taste of triple-A baseball at the end of the 2011 season.
The smart money here is that the Phillies will either re-sign Rollins or try to sign a veteran to a one-year deal and give Galvis at least one more year to develop in the minor leagues. The going rate for someone like St. Louis' Rafael Furcal would probably be in the $6 to $8 million range while Rollins could cost $10 million for next season.
Let's say they re-sign Rollins. That would put the payroll at about $169.5 million.
Then the Phillies would have to decide if they needed another player -- a third baseman or super utility guy? -- to jumpstart the offense that has disappointed them each of the last two postseasons.
Regardless, given the economics, the emergence of Vance Worley and the likely return of Joe Blanton to the starting rotation, there does not appear to be room in next year's budget for Oswalt's $16 million option.
So get ready for the "And Then There were Three (Aces)" news conference next February in Clearwater.
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Got a country with 9% unemployment and these guys are haggling over millions just because you can hit a baseball. Nice.— run2jazz2
Comment removed.- Comment removed.
- Do you really want to sign an injury prone pitcher(Hamels), who's having bone chips removed from his pitching elbow as we speak, to a 5yr/$90 mil contract????? How stupid is it getting here? Don't you want to see if he can ever throw effectively again, first?— Mark1npt
- 33, 32, 33, 31. Pretty good amount of games started the past 4 years for an injury prone pitcher eh? Not to mention 8th in ERA and 5th in xFIP in the ML this season. — PhillyPhreak
- If Fielder walks...Braun wants Brewers to sign Reyes, thus leaving Betancourt available, sign him for less then JRoll and he is years younger.— Romus
- Comment removed.
- Much talk on the posts about signing Albert Pujols. Albert will be 32 on january 16. No question about the quality of this guy. But does anyone know that this spring his demands from the Cardinals, in order to sign before free agency at season's end, was 10 years at $30MM, AND PART OWNERSHIP IN THE CLUB???? Can you see the Phillies so-called "fans" clamoring over a 41 year old player who, admittedly can now do it all (except run...his legs are shot now, let alone at age 41) being payed at that level? Why not sit back and let the guys who are pros run the club and keep some of the assinine posts in your dreams! Baseball is STILL just entertainment. Quit whining about ball players making a few million bucks a year. If movie stars and other entertainers can make 20 or 30 million for making one movie, ball players may well be UNDERPAID, considering they can't just replay their performances and collect residuals on them. And here we sit vilifying them because they ONLY won the regular season. Get a life!!!— billroc35
- Ruben Amaro Jr. will have a challenging offseason in front of him. If JRoll signs elsewhere, would Marco Scutaro be a good pick up if Boston doesn't pick up his option? He hit .299 for Boston in 2011 and is a grinder and good OBP guy. However, he will be 36 by opening day. If The Phils decide to look outside of the roster for a Ryan Howard stopgap, a huge wild card is Carlos Pena. Pena, 33, hit just .225 in 2011 for The Cubs. He hit an atrocious .133 versus LHP. The bright spots were 28 HR, 80 RBI's, 101 walks, and a .357 OBP. He would command a presence in the lineup, probably best suited in a platoon role. With Scott Boras as his agent, would he take a one year deal in Philly? Aramis Ramirez is another intriging name, possibly out there for a third base upgrade. He would provide a middle of the lineup right handed stick. Ramirez would be looking at a multi-year deal and would not come cheap. Big Mikey Smallz: I am in total agreement with your pitching staff for next season. Hopefully, Madson can be re-signed and be the anchor for those young arms.— Seeing Red
- Good article. Simple and straightforward and very real. The real trick will be to find a productive 3b and keep PP and super utility. He can't stand the rigors of another 162 game season. Not much room in the budget. And this is too all those who wanted to trade Worley.— alwaysphil1
- Promote Glavis for his defense and bat him 8th. I agree they need a serious upgrade at 3B but they DID win a WS with Pedro Feliz at the hot corner, so maybe it's not as important as everyone thinks it is. The problem is that the Phillies are stuck with a bunch of guys who can't perform anymore when the pressure is on, so unless you can trade Howard, Utley, Ruiz, and Victorino, you're pretty much guaranteed another early exit. Pence is overrated, too. This team doesn't promise to be any better until maybe Sanberg becomes the manager.— Sam Crow
- Do you really want to sign an injury prone pitcher(Hamels), who's having bone chips removed from his pitching elbow as we speak, to a 5yr/$90 mil contract????? How stupid is it getting here? Don't you want to see if he can ever throw effectively again, first?
Just how is Hamels "injury prone"? He has been very durable. He went on the DL once this year with shoulder stiffness that was just a way to make room for someone else to join the line-up, if I recall? They just keep on inventing ways to disrespect Cole Hamels.— re6035 - ...runs' house
- sam crow...ur an idiot!— billroc35
- No to Rollins and Oswalt. Yes to Madson. Pick up a third baseman. Use Polanco at 2b, Utley at 1B and expect Howard to be out until the All Star break. Use Mayberry in LF and pickup a utility OFer or bring up a young player from the minors as a backup. I'd rather give Galvis a shot and use Rollins' $10 million and then some for a good third baseman. If Galvis needs a mental break a few days a week, use Valdez. He's proven he can fill in nicely. The Phillies desperately need to get younger and stabilize their payroll. They're already paying for some bad decisions in past years.— AvoidSundanceVacations
