Crunching numbers for Phillies 2012 payroll
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Crunching numbers for Phillies 2012 payroll
Bob Brookover, Inquirer Baseball Columnist
This is a second version showing Cole Hamels as being arbitration eligible. Thanks to the fine editors who are also my readers.
General manager Ruben Amaro Jr.'s 10-word answer to a question about the Phillies' 2012 payroll received little attention Tuesday.
"Don't know yet," he said. "I would say it would be similar (to 2011)."
Given Amaro's plea for a change in the approach by his hitters and the pending free agency of shortstop Jimmy Rollins and closer Ryan Madson, it was understandable that the payroll was glossed over at this embryonic stage of the offseason.
Nevertheless, it will be an interesting subject at some point when the quest to either re-sign or replace Rollins and Madson intensifies.
For the record, the Phillies' payroll was somewhere between $175 and $180 million this season and it's possible, once player bonuses are factored in, that the team passed baseball's $178-million threshold that requires a team to pay a luxury tax of 22.5 percent for every dollar it spends above $178 million.
The luxury-tax number expands every year, but it figures to be a challenge for the Phillies to stay below that figure again in 2012, especially if they re-sign Rollins and Madson and pick up the $16 million option on Roy Oswalt.
If the Phillies pay a $2 million buyout to Oswalt and, as expected, a $1.5 million buyout to Brad Lidge, they will still owe $110.45 million to the nine players already under contract for next season. That total includes the $3.5 million buyout total for Oswalt and Lidge.
Here's the breakdown of those nine players: Cliff Lee ($21.5 million), Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay ($20 million each), Chase Utley ($15 million), Shane Victorino ($9.5 million), Joe Blanton ($8.5 million), Placido Polanco ($6.25 million), Carlos Ruiz ($3.7 million) and Jose Contreras ($2.5 million).
Lefthander Cole Hamels, right fielder Hunter Pence, extra outfielder Ben Francisco and pitcher Kyle Kendrick are among the Phillies players eligible for salary arbitration. Let's say the Phillies only decide to bring back Hamels, Pence and Kendrick. Being conservative, Hamels will likely get $14 million, Pence will likely get at least $10 million and Kendrick will get somewhere around $3 million, bringing the payroll to just under $137.5 million for 12 players.
Amaro said that even if the Phillies do not re-sign Madson, they plan on going outside the organization for an experienced closer. Whether it's Madson or somebody else with experience at the role, it's likely to cost at least $10 million, bringing the payroll to $147.5 million for 13 players.
To fill out the bullpen and the bench, it will likely cost roughly another $12 million, so the total is up to $159.5 million and you still need a shortstop.
Amaro said some of his lieutenants believe that Freddy Galvis is ready to play in the big leagues right now and others do not. Before that, he said he thought outfielder Domonic Brown could use 500 at-bats at the triple-A level before he's ready for another shot at the big leagues. Brown, 24, is more than two years older than Galvis, who just got his first taste of triple-A baseball at the end of the 2011 season.
The smart money here is that the Phillies will either re-sign Rollins or try to sign a veteran to a one-year deal and give Galvis at least one more year to develop in the minor leagues. The going rate for someone like St. Louis' Rafael Furcal would probably be in the $6 to $8 million range while Rollins could cost $10 million for next season.
Let's say they re-sign Rollins. That would put the payroll at about $169.5 million.
Then the Phillies would have to decide if they needed another player -- a third baseman or super utility guy? -- to jumpstart the offense that has disappointed them each of the last two postseasons.
Regardless, given the economics, the emergence of Vance Worley and the likely return of Joe Blanton to the starting rotation, there does not appear to be room in next year's budget for Oswalt's $16 million option.
So get ready for the "And Then There were Three (Aces)" news conference next February in Clearwater.
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- Pujols-level production? Sure minus the OBP/wOBA, SLG, low K rate, and defense.
— PhillyPhreak - Using Martinez at SS is a joke.I don't like Rollins resigning, but I hate the Martinez idea evev=n more.Didn't he have trouble hitting 200 this year?This guy belongs in AAA.Good field no hit.Galvis has been ready in the field for years,it's his hitting holding him back,until this year,— youwish
- Anybody have thoughts on Cuddyer... he could play 3rd, 1st and corner OF. HIt 20 homers in a pretty big park. Don't know what his contract demands would be, but he kills left handed pitching.— madecaro
Comment removed.- Martinez should not even be on this roster; Pete Orr should have been up all year to back up Utley and you have Valdez to back up Rollins. I understand Martinez is a cheap body but so are high school kids and they're more productive.— JBinPA
- Good lord. There's no way they pay that money to Oswalt. He is doing exactly what an aging player in decline does. He shows flashes of his former self here and there surrounded by longer and longer stretches of mediocrity. I cant believe it is even a discussion as to whether to bring him back or not. I don't bring Rollins back either. Yeah, he won't get 5 years anywhere but he will get 3 at $11-12 million. Still too much for the Phils for what he gives you. Does a Furcal-like guy at $6 million give you so much less that you need to overpay Rollins? I don't think so. This team needs new blood and it's time to start letting this aging core go, one by one. Thats reality. We loved Dykstra, Daulton and the rest too. They got old quick and the team got bad quick. Time to move on.— Sewellmatt
- If we can't trade Howard how about batting him 5 or 6 and letting Pence bat 4. I agree let Oswalt walk and get a good 3rd baseman. Ryan is no better than Brown. I think Mayberry can out play both of them. If Furcal can play 3rd base sign him up. We should be able to sign Oswalt to a 2-3 year contract at 10k. Whatever you do, please sign Madson.— jommel
- Rollins needs to walk. It's not a popular subject but I firmly believed he juiced during those glory years. He was a career .260ish hitter with 10-16 home run potential. Then boom! 20-30 home runs and then back down to earth with constant trips to the DL. His body couldn't handle the grind without the juice.
He might make less than Chase and Chase might've juiced too but Utley at least gives 110% all the time. How many times did you see Rollins try to hit a homer and watch the ball hit the fence to end up with a double instead of legging it out for a triple?
He's a terrible lead off hitter and the Phils would be better off letting him walk.— sont - The Phils won it in 2008 (Pat Gillick), Lost in World Series in 2009, Lost in NLCS in 2010, Lost in NLDS in 2011. Ruben is proving he is NOT Pat Gillick. Maybe it is time for him to go.— kozykoz26
- One issue that no one seems to address is our hitting coach. He is the worse. If we can't do better than Greg Gross, let's do without. Everyone complains about the lack of offense, but no one blames it on him. Why not? If we are not hitting, let's get a different hitting coach. I agree about Rollins, his better days are over. and Utley is big question mark.— jommel
- When Oswalt was traded here they made the buy-out $3 million.
You might want to check on that.— caboose8274 - I prefer Furcal to Rollins anyway. You don't need to start the season at $178. You need to leave room to grab a player after the All Star break if you need a difference maker or replace an injury. 165-168 gives you cushion for that player.— Relocator
- The problem with Cuddyer is that he will be 33 next season. I think the team needs a major upgrade. How about play Galvis at SS for 450K and make a run at Pujols to play 3B? I know I am contradicting myself with the age thing but you're talking about an all time great.
It puts the payroll at about 185-190M, plus an additioanl 2-3M for Luxury Tax.
That 25M in lost revenue from getting knocked out early would have been nice.— NMPartners - Sign Hamels to a 5 yr $90 million contract; and if he doesn't accept it, you need to trade him. Phils can't take a chance on him walking after his arbitration year and get nothing but a draft pick for him. Buyout Oswalt & Lidge. Let Rollins walk and bring up Galvis. Stick him in the 8 hole and let him develop. Find a half decent back-up to Chooch so that he won't have to play 135 games. The key is 3rd base..upgrade is sorely needed there.— bdc333
- Agreed farley...there is an unwritten code about embarrassing your big star players by platooning them. Of course, they shouldn't really be star players and making $20 mil a year if you have to platoon them, should they? Maybe if he were taken to the woodshed for his inneffectiveness against lefthanders, maybe he'd work a little more about developing quality at bats more often....right now, HE is embarrassing himself everytime he faces one.— Mark1npt
