Can the Phillies Make that Big Trade?
Jim Salisbury takes a look at whether or not the Phillies have enough talent to make a big trade before the July 31 trade deadline.
Can the Phillies Make that Big Trade?
Todd Zolecki
So you want C.C. Sabathia.
Who doesn't?
But do the Phillies have enough talent to trade for him -- or somebody like him? Would you trade Shane Victorino and Carlos Carrasco for Sabathia, knowing Sabathia probably won't be back next season and Carrasco is very close to contributing at the big-league level? Jim Salisbury takes a look at what the Phillies have, and what it might take to make a big splash before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
Sabathia obviously would be a tremendous pick up for a team that lacks a clear No. 2 behind Cole Hamels. Sabathia started the season slowly with the Cleveland Indians, but is 5-5 with a 2.14 ERA in his last 12 starts. Could you imagine Hamels and Sabathia pitching the first two games of the National League division series this year?
The odds are against the Phillies to acquire Sabathia. In fact, I'd bet against it. But I think the Phillies are more likely to pick up a mid-level starter like Kyle Lohse in 2007 and Jamie Moyer in 2006. But this certainly wouldn't be a bad time for the Phillies to go for broke. Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are in their primes. The National League is weak, and there for the taking. They have a potent offense -- despite what we've seen lately -- and a solid bullpen.
One stud starter could put them over the top.
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Utley continues to lead all major leagues in votes for the All-Star Game with 2,179,006 votes. Rollins ranks fourth amongst shortstops, Howard ranks fifth amongst first basemen and Pat Burrell ranks sixth amongst outfielders.
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Utley endorses EAS products. Here he talks to the company about how he trains in the off-season. And, of course, how wonderful EAS is.
Comments (45)
Werth, Feliz, and Victorino all can cath in an emergency. Manuel has been pinch hitting for his catchers with regularity all year, and yet last night in a critical game situation that was screaming for Dobbs in NEON LIGHTS and SIRENS, Charlie lets Ruiz hit into DP. Inexcusable.— RAS
JAMES TL: The only possible explanation is that Manuel followed the conventional wisdom of not hitting for your catcher with a couple innings to go. You know, because once you put your backup catcher in the game, you've got nobody to catch if he gets hurt. I understand it, but I don't agree with that thinking all the time, especially in a case like last night. Besides, I thought Jason Werth was our emergency backup. That was one of his selling points when Gillick picked him up. We should be able to take a chance here and there hitting for Ruiz with Werth as insurance.— bski- I am not even going go into the past failures...in 1980 I had hoped that the sigma of the choke of 64 was over...havn't heard much about the 2007 Mets and your not likely to...the Phillies have made so many bad mistakes...does anyone remember Ryan Sandberg?...or Curt Shilling?...Ed Wade tried to trade Howard for Kris Benson while he was a member of the Pirates...it's no wonder why the average Phillies fan thinks he can run the team better then Monty & Company...HE CAN!...this team is too good not to try to win now...I think they need a top starter a real #2 guy...send Meyers back to the bullpen and these Phillies would have a great chance to make a deep playoff run...starters go 6 and the pen takes over in the playoffs that what it takes to win!— PHILLYMARK
- I wish I knew why Manuel didn't pinch hit for Ruiz in the 7th. He didn't and of course Ruiz hits into an easy DP. Could someone please explain this to me? I think the last two losses are on Manuel. First, he lets Taguchi swing 2-0 resulting in a pop out to end the game and then he lets the DP machine bat with the bases loaded. I don't usually blame the manager but this time I have to. I know Manuel can't make players hit but....— James TL
phillies fan: I won't argue with you there! The offense has been nonexistant for some time now, and this pitching staff (any pitching staff) can only do so much without run support. But that said, as a manager you can't make hitters hit. What you can do is manage the situation. That can result in manufacturing a run or two here and there, or helping out your pitchers by knowing when they are at their limit. Just like we say a player can "pick up" a guy who makes a bad play or has a bad AB, the manager can sometimes pick up a team that's not performing up to par. That's what Charlie had the opportunity to do last night and he opted not to do it more than once.— bobby- Sorry bobby, Charlie did not lose that game the hitters did. Look at Utley, Howard, Burrell, Rollins and Jenkins. Charlie can't hit for those guys.— phillies fan
- I agree with bobby. The fact that Greg Dobbs got no at-bats in that game is absolutely appalling.... Someone posted an analogy to the Stepford Wives earlier in the year on this blog.... that's what the Phils reminded me of last night.— RAS
- Sorry to have to regress back to Charlie-bashing days, but what he did last night was flat out unacceptable. You cannot let a pitcher talk you out of making the switch in that situation. It wasn't even a shock when that ball went out. And letting Ruiz bat with bases loaded is just wrong. Hands-free managing is great when things are going your way, but at some point you have to make moves to win games.— bobby
- RAS Thanks for the clarification. Brief senior moment what with both names beginning with "O".— KarenA
- And.....I don't think Charlie's pulling Pat for any DEFENSIVE problems. I think it all goes back to his lack of speed on the basepath and probable problems with his foot. Still! Good idea having him be the DH. There's an article on phillies.com addressing just that. Apparently Charlie's thinking of DH'ing Chase or J.Roll. Letting Bruntlett get more playing time.— Norma
- timm.......Totally agree about Charlie leaving Jamie in too long. That's always been my only complaint about him. I'm sure during the conference on the mound, Jamie said he was OK. But any player, barring any injuries, thinks they're OK to stay in the game. I'm sure Jamie's kicking himself this morning. Charlie needs to step up and take control. HE'S the manager. Not the players.— Norma
Comment removed.- The Phillie hating pitcher is Olsen from the Marlins.— RAS
- I have to agree with many folks here and that selling the "farm" for a "rental" pitcher is a bit risky. I think Harden or Oswalt would be a better way to go. Also I'd hate to see Victorino traded. He can adds speed to line-up that would be lacking if he were traded. Plus now that he's an everyday player he probably wouldn't want to leave at this point since he has his starting job. (clarification: is Oswalt the pitcher who hates the Phillies?)— KarenA
- Time for a shake-up / wake-up. Send Ruiz down, bring up Lou Marson. Release Geoff Jenkins. The game has passed him by. He is washed up. Now we know why Milwaukee let him go. Bring up Greg Golson.— RAS
- BSKI's on the loose. Where's Mrs. Puff when we need her?— Nick from the Northeast
- Make the Big Trade, Nah, when it comes to pitchers the Phils like to wait until the bar is ready to close and take what is left which always looks good to them that late.— atp2007
- Another thing, if Charlie thinks Pat is such a defensive liability that he has to pull him every night then wy isn't Pat the DH? Shouldn't charlie be jumping at the chance to use Pat's bat but not his glove? Good enough early but not late i guess. Absolutely maddening.— timm
- Another great job by Charlie. Way to leave a pitcher in too long. Unbelievable. Guess he learned nothing from the game Myers threw the other day. At least Durbin looked nice in his uniform while in the bullpen. Who knew a 45 year old pitcher would be gased after 100 pitches. Ugggghhhhhhhhh— timm
- If I could trade Victorino and Carrasco for Sabathia I would do it today. Winning in the playoffs is about pitching, pitching and pitching. if the Phils had Sabathia and Hamels available to pitch 5 gamers in a seven game series, I like the odds. If your concern is building through the farm system the Phillies would get two additional high draft icks next year if they trade for Sabathia and he signs somewhere else since he will be a type A free agent.— KMG
- There's no way I'd trade Victorino and Carrasco for Sabathia. Talk about mortgaging the future for the privilege of renting a player for four months. The Phillies are in first now, and arguably improved from last year, when they won the division. I, for one, think Victorino, when he's on, is better than Aaron Rowand, and will get a lot better.— Tactful
- Sorry to break the news but this team is more than 1 pitcher away. Anybody remember last year's playoffs when our bats went silent?!?!?! How bout the last few series against teams they would face in the playoffs when they went 2 and 7?!?!?! Keep building the team through the farm system and pick up a guy like Lohse, they aren't winning anything except maybe the division this year....— MICKDONAHUE
- I don't know if it matters - if they trade Carrasco, he'll go on to win a Cy Young award. If they keep him, he'll be mediocre. Kind of like Gavin Floyd. They might as well just trade him.— fafafooey
- I'm not sure I really like that trade. Shane (I cant make a productive out) Victorino although pretty good now could end up being a great player in this league and I'd like to see him here if hes going to do that. I don't know much about Carrasco but I'm curious to see if this kid is the real deal. Why not keep at least 1 of them (include a reliever, and So, then move Myers to the pen) and go after Oswalt or Bedard? Don't get me wrong though I would love to see a Cole CC combo in October with our lineup behind him but I'm not sure I see the value in giving up Victorino and Carassco to rent the big boy for 4 months when theres no way in hell we're going to give him that much money to stay when we should be signing Ryan and Cole to big deals.— davemarsh
- ROCKINROB: I would be more than happy to not make knee jerk decisions and develop our farm system. First, you need to answer two questions for me. 1) How long do I have to wait? 2) Who am I waiting for? If your answers are 3 years, Brandon Duckworth, then I say no thanks, let's make a deal right now for a starter. Look, the Phils have supposedly been committed to building up their farm system for years. Mike Arbuckle was brought in for that express purpose. He is supposed to be a phenomenal evaluator of talent and we have been told he is doing a bang up job. So much so that every off season The Phils are biting their collective fingernails worrying that Arbuckle may take a GM job with another organization. Arbuckle has been with the Phils for what 6 or 7 years? If he's so fantastic, why is our farm system still so thin? This is the main reason why they can't go out and land a top of the rotation starter, right? We can't trade away the only two major league ready pitching prospects we have because our already thin farm system will be wiped out. Where are all of our top notch pitching prospects? Another thing, one of Gillick's top priorities was to rebuild the farm system. So, to sum it up, we have a top notch assistant GM who has been here for about 7 years and a top notch GM who has been here for 3 years, both of whom consider rebuilding the farm system to be a top priority. So, I'll ask again, where are all of our fantastic pitching prospects? We HAVE been waiting for years and have seen next to nothing with regard to pitching coming up through our farm system and making major contributions on the big league level.— bski
- The Phils definitely need to add a top of the rotation starter. They have the pieces to get a deal done(Burrell, Victorino, Howard, Werth, Dobbs, prospects, etc...) I just don't think they are going to do it. Look at the last seven years. We have consistently been a mid to high 80's win team. What are we this year? You got it, a mid to high 80's win team. James TL is absolutely right. If the Phils continue doing business as usual, they will never win a championship. Business as usual has given us a steady stream of mostly middle of the road pickups and a thin farm system. We have been able to become a good team, but not good enough to win a championship. Based on what we've seen over the last seven years, we've probably got to expect more of the same. It seems as though the organization feels like we're too close to being a championship contender to risk any major changes to the roster, but tweaking and tinkering isn't giving us enough to truly reach that level. If the pitching prospects we are so concerned about losing are going to be major contributors to a title run beginning next year, then I say we've got to keep them. It would be foolish to trade away a couple of bona fide top of the rotation starters for a roll of the dice that a half year rental pitcher can get us to the world series. If, on the other hand, Topwonk is correct that Carrasco might be a #3 or #4 starter in a couple years, then we've got to make a deal now. As many have said, we have a small window with Utley, Rollins, and Howard. We can't afford to wait on the pitching we need, especially if it will only be middle of the rotation caliber. If we do make a deal, I would prefer Bedard or Oswalt. They would be around for longer than half a year, which would give us more of a return for what we give up.— bski
- Why do the Phils have to make knee jerk decisions? Let's develop our youth. I see Gavin Floyd is havig a good season. If we had not made a knee jerk decison to sign Garcia to "get us over the top" we would have a good young starter in Floyd to compliment Cole Hamels. I don't like the win now philosophy. Let the Phils build a team the old fashioned way through th efarm system. There are some good young arms. I don't think the enucleus of this team has only a couple years left....they have many years left. Let's concentrate on developing our farm sysytem and finding a good third baseman and good catcher.— rockinrob
- Who would you have to give up for Paul Byrd, Bronson Arroyo, Tim Redding, Greg Maddux, Paul Maholm or a take your pick donkey from the Royals? The Phils are bottom feeders. Their biggest move will likely be to dump Taguchi and use T.J Bohn in that role. I wouldn't get too excited about "the big deal". What's big to the Phils is not big to the rest of baseball.— Nick from the Northeast
- Plus you can afford to give up Carrasco because you have Outman and Bastardo behind him.— cg
- You know, through all of these posts I didn't see the name Erik Bedard. He;s a very good pitcher that still has another year on his contract. With his ERA at 3.97 and his record may only be 4-4 but he's playing for a pitiful team right now (kind of like Schilling for all those years with our horrible teams). His ERA will surely drop by switching leagues because he won't have to face a DH every game. His ERA now is less then Myers, Eaton, Kendrick, AND Moyer. Think of the possibilities if he faced a pitcher every time through the line up. I'm intrigued by Haren and Oswalt also but with Oswalt's 4.84 ERA I'm kind of leery there. I'd honestly try for Harden (the biggest upgrade) or Bedard over Sabathia (he wasn't so good in the playoffs last year...is that a sign?). Plus Harden and Bedard doesn't give up many home runs, 5 and 8 respectively. Oakland may go for Victorino (they love guys that can get on base and create havoc) and Carrasco (a good young pitcher to develop). With Seattle giving up Adam Jones for Bedard to Baltimore, Victorino would be a good arm to strengthen their outfield.— cg
- How often do teams in contetion make that one "big trade" that's certain to "put them over the top" not to get over the top? Sabathia's not even having a good year and he's a huge guy, probably wearing down. A.J. Burnett's a DL regular. No thanks! I'd feel better if they picked up either a cheaper half-season veteran, like Maddux - or maybe another one of San Diego's starters (but not Randy Wolf). Victorino could be very attractive to a team with a huge outfield like theirs. Longer term, I'd take a shot at Oswalt. They'd have to pay him for a few years, but if he gets himself straightened out, he's nasty and consistent.— frankenslade
- I just sick and tired of losing. We have a team now that can and I mean can win a World Series. But we need one more starting pitcher to get us there. Yes Sabathia in not a garantee, but it a lot better that what we have. Could you imagine a 1,2 of Hammels and Sabathia come October. Don't think it gets much better than that.— Beef69
- As for the lack of fans in Florida, the empty seats are a result of just that - a lack of professional baseball fans, and a lot of other things to do, kind of like L.A. where I saw a ton of empty seats this past weekend. Besides that, I am not suggesting we run the club just like the Marlins, I am just suggesting that the prospect of losing a few players who may be good at the MLB level in a few years, or losing a few players in two or three years because of contract situations, is not enough woe and worry to keep me from going for the Series in a year when the NL is down. And, I disagree with Ray. We DO have prospects, and getting players that help get you to a World Series can help keep players that oherwise might leave (see Rolen, Shilling, etc.). And, I'm not saying this team needs to make big deals for old players, like the Mets with Martinez and Glavine, or overpay everywhere like the Yankees who can afford it and still win nothing. I just want the Phils to be creative and take SOME risks, like they did with the Lidge deal, where they gave up two young guys but got back one of the top five closers in MLB. And, there are not only some prospects in the system but some verterans who are thought highly of by other teams and may not be the best pieces for this team's puzzle going forward (e.g. Myers, Victorino, even Burrell). I know Burrell has been fairly steady for the last 12 months and I think he is a good #5 or #6 hitter, but again, good to great pitching wins championships because it generally performs consistently, while hitters do not (see current Phils slump and the Rockies in last year's World Series). And relieving the club of Burrell's contract ratehr than extending it would help with the Hamels and Howard contract situations. Let's see the front office be creative, possibly overspend a bit, and for once build a pitching staff that can win it all.— topwonk
- If the Phillies continue doing business as usual they will never win a championship. They don't know how to evaluate talent. Their thin farm system is proof of that. They will not 'pay over slot'(which means offering more money than a player may be worth considering the draft slot they were drafted at) for good prospects, therefore they often don't sign them, allowing them to go to college or sign elsewhere. I wish this current ownership, that cars more about making money than winning, would sell the team to an induvidual or group that knows more about how to win. I'll always be a fan but I doubt the Phils will win a championship anytime soon. The current nucleus of Utley, Rollins, Howard, Hamels wil be long gone before they win it again if ever.— James TL
- Comment removed.
- Let's rephrase the question... Would you be happy with winning 1 more World Series or build a team that can make a legitimate run to several and win a few in the next few years? I know management is banking on the second because that is what fills the stadium. I'm sure that attendance is up this year. Even though the Phillies have been going through a bad stretch of baseball, they are still in first place and before this bad stretch, they were one of the hottest teams in the major leagues. And that was with the same players that they have right now.— roque32
- Regarding the Florida vs. Philly results comment. I lived in Florida for 10 years and talked to quite a few Marlins fans. Their biggest complaint about the way Florida does things is that they can't ever get behind a team because the players keep leaving. If you ever watch the Philles play in Florida, you'll see that the stadium is empty. They have no fan support. It's sad really..— roque32
- I don't care about Sabathia's contract. It's all about this year.— doorspj24
- You assuming that Sabathia will pitch well in Citizens Bank Park. If you sign Sabathia for a half year, you're not guaranteed a World Series berth. Look at the Mets. They got the best pitcher in baseball and they are floundering. I think the downside to this deal out glares the upside of it. I say no.— roque32
- I don't care about Sabathia's contract. It's all about this year.— doorspj24
- I agree with topwonk. Let's go for the gold NOW!!! Give up the farm for Sabathia. With have the hitting. We need the pitching. Everyone wants to play for next year. What about this year?— Beef69
- Tough situation, because of Sabathia's contract status? Yes! But that is precisely why the Phillies have any shot at aquiring him. It might scare some other teams off, so let's get him. Future, shmuture. How many legit shots at a World Series do we get? I'd give up future prospects and a now player for a better than 50-50 shot at a Fall Classic this year in a heartbeat. And I think that's what Sabathia, or even Harden or Oswalt, gets you. Let me ask everyone this: Which team's results would you prefer over the last ten years, Florida's or Philly's? If a few down years is what a couple of championships, and a few other contending years costs - I'm in.— topwonk
- If the Phillies should somehow make a trade for Sabathia it is of the utmost importance that they sign him long-term before the trade is completed.— sdlmedford
- The toughest part of the whole situation is that you only have the guy for half a season. Then if all goes as we assume, meaning the Phillies management will not cough up the bucks to sign him as a free agent, he's gone. That's gone, as in the same way the players you gave up for him are gone. So you face starting next year without the ace you traded for and without the position players (Victorino?) and prospects you gave up. I'm not saying don't do it, but it is not an easy call by any means.— bobby
- I saw Carrasco pitch in Reading late last year. He was not overly impressive. Based on that and what I have heard, he is possiby a #3 or #4 pitcher, best case, in two or three years. I've been watching the Phillies for over 40 years. I've seen them win the World Series once. I'd like to see them win it again, and with the young nucleus we have now, which no one should assume will be here two or three years from now, we should go for Sabathia, even at the cost of a possible #3 pitcher down the road and a current pitcher or everyday player, or both. In fact, I'd make an effort sign Sabathia AND one of the other pitchers who is under contract, like Harden or Oswalt. Oswalt is intriguing because his GM (Fast Eddie Wade) has a proven record of making bone-head decisions. Could we steal him for Victorino and Myers? Maybe we get lucky and get two pitchers, but certianly get one!— topwonk
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