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Monday, September 29, 2008
CC Can't Pitch Every Day

The Phillies are the better team.

They should beat the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League division series, and advance to the NLCS. They have a better lineup. They finished second in the league with 799 runs scored, while the Brewers finished seventh with 750. The Brewers have a 3.87 ERA, while the Phillies have a 3.89 ERA. But while statistically speaking the Brewers have a better starter's ERA than the Phillies (3.86 ERA to 4.23 ERA), the Phillies have a better reliever's ERA than the Brewers (3.19 ERA to 3.83 ERA). And the Brewers right now have one solid starter: CC Sabathia. The Brewers certainly will try to squeeze a couple starts from Sabathia in the NLDS, but they also will have to pitch Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush at some point. Of course, the Brewers could have a wild card in righthander Yovani Gallardo, who pitched against the Cubs on Friday. He missed most of the season with a knee injury, but the Brewers rotation is in such shambles with Ben Sheets finished for the season that they probably will roll the dice and use him. And if the Phillies can knock out those guys early, they certainly would love to get into the Brewers bullpen (i.e. Eric Gagne and Co.).

The Brewers aren't sure how their rotation will set up, but the Phillies know Cole Hamels is pitching Game 1 at 3 p.m. Wednesday. (How come I get the feeling a lot of people who read this blog will be getting a cold on Wednesday and calling in sick?)

I'm guessing Brett Myers will pitch Game 2 because the Brewers struggle against righthanders and because it would allow the Phillies to split Hamels and Jamie Moyer. If the Phillies are up 2-1 going into Game 4, they might start Joe Blanton. If they're down 2-1, they could consider bringing back Hamels on short rest, although that's purely speculation on my part.

*

The Phillies think they match up pretty well against the Brewers.

*

The Brewers partied. And partied. And partied.

And now that they're in, they hope they have some of that '07 Rockies magic.

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In the Phillies Notebook: a look at the potential postseason roster. Greg Golson is headed to the Florida Instructional League today, which means he isn't expected to make the NLDS roster. Surprised? Maybe. He obviously would be an awesome pinch-runner, but I'm not sure Charlie Manuel wants to handcuff himself to a one-option player. Golson has struck out four times in six at-bats this month, so if the Phillies needed him in a pinch-hitting situation he probably wouldn't be able to provide a quality at-bat in a big situation. He also hasn't looked sharp in the outfield. So while Golson could win the Phillies a game with his legs, the same can't be said for his bat and glove. And I'm guessing that is why the Phillies likely are going with So Taguchi. Of course, I might sound crazy saying that because Manuel doesn't use Taguchi in the outfield and Taguchi has hit just .220 this season, including .091 (3 for 33) as a pinch-hitter. But that's my best guess on the Phillies' thinking there.

We also have word on Shane Victorino's leg injury and more.

*

John Gonzalez likes the fact the Mets collapsed again.

Posted by Todd Zolecki @ 10:26 AM  Permalink | 22 comments
22
Comments   
Posted 10:39 AM, 09/29/2008
Deb in Dixie
Did anyone notice that it was Wes Helms yesterday that gave the Fish the go ahead (and as it turned out, winning) run?? Best thing he ever to help the Phils!
Posted 10:58 AM, 09/29/2008
jimmymack
I thought I remembered that the Phils's are picking up Helm's salary this year (anyone confirm?), if so, it's the least he could do for us.
Posted 11:00 AM, 09/29/2008
RollinsWasRight
Deb, I absolutely noticed that. I even had a feeling when he pinch-hit to lead-off the 8th he might finally do something beneficial for us, in Philly (as the Mets losing did not help the Phillies in any way...the Phils had already taken care of their business). So, thank Pat Gillick for this Mets' collapse, for sending Helms to the Marlins in exchange for...well...in exchange for not having to have him in Philly.
Posted 11:04 AM, 09/29/2008
danielswolf
At least Helms earned the $2.75 million or so that the Phillies paid him this year--remember that part of the trade with Florida was that the Phillies pay his salary for 2008.
Posted 11:15 AM, 09/29/2008
KarenA
Jimmymack & Deb--I had the same thought. I do think the Phils are picking up either part or all of Helm's salary for the year. It was a beautiful thing regardless of who signs his checks.
Posted 11:22 AM, 09/29/2008
takeitdeep
What is with Philly getting the day games?!
Posted 11:31 AM, 09/29/2008
RAS
Phils clinch, Mets lose out again, too bad the Eagles messed up what was otherwise a great weekend. Go Phils!
Posted 11:39 AM, 09/29/2008
Captain Splendor
Phils picked up Helms' salary, with the Marlins paying his buyout/option at the end of the season
Posted 11:41 AM, 09/29/2008
bobby
OK, now we can seriously talk about the post-season roster. I'll stick by my earlier feeling that the Phils should not take Golson (too one-dimensional as Todd mentions above and we saw yesterday at CBP). As for the rest of the bench, I have it like this: Coste, Dobbs, Stairs, Bruntlett, and Taguchi. Look, I know So has been a bust for the Phils this year, but he has championship experience and can run and play the outfield if needed. Pitching is easy in my opinion: Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton, Happ, Durbin, Madson, Romero, Seanez, Condrey, Eyre, and Lidge. Add in your 8 starters and you have a 25-man championship roster!
Posted 11:46 AM, 09/29/2008
Flyguy12
3pm start time sucks. Just as much as Fox does for showing the Brewers/Cubs game in the NYC area.
Posted 11:57 AM, 09/29/2008
CyHamels
I don't care when they start the games- it's the playoffs. I would hope every fan out there would take off work whenever it would be to watch the game.
Posted 12:15 PM, 09/29/2008
Truth
Does Gillick deserve another year? Is what he added significantly more than what he was given? Personally, I think the only way I ask him to come back is if they win a 'ship. Otherwise move on with Amaro, the sooner he fails the sooner we will get back again.
Posted 12:43 PM, 09/29/2008
bobby
The Brewers will suffer from what the Phillies had last year: "We Finally Made It!" Syndrome. That's where they get into the payoffs for the first time in recent memory (certainly longer than anyone has been on the team) and celebrate like there's no tomorrow. The Phils, on the other hand, have last year's abrupt ending fresh in their minds. Yes, they popped the corks, but nothing like last year. Lesson learned. There's work to be done. Let's get to it!
Posted 12:54 PM, 09/29/2008
KarenA
I think they have a more mature way about them this year and are hopefully not taking this opportunity for granted.
Posted 12:58 PM, 09/29/2008
RAS
To write off the Brewers is utter foolishness. They survived a real risky gamble by firing Yost with two weeks left. They feel it saved their season, so they have plenty of momentum, just as Colorado had last year. Cautiously optimistic is as far as I'll venture wrt the Phils playoff hopes.
Posted 12:58 PM, 09/29/2008
jimmymack
I go back and forth on Gilick/Amaro. Monty's preference is to promote in house, which tends to have a G.M. with a myopic view of things. Face it, the "Phillies" way hasn't been all that successful, (although I like Arbuckle for drafting overall). I have to give Gillick props for finding the cheap gems, the Werth's, Dobbs, Romaro's of the world. But they has made some horrible, expensive decisions (Barajas, Helms, Eaton, Garcia), which leads me to beleive that the in house scouting, cross checking is pretty weak. Think Amaro wil have the stones to tell Monty they have to go? Not likely, he is a company guy. So my vote is to go outside again.
Posted 01:05 PM, 09/29/2008
Truth
jimmymack-would you ask Gillick to return or let him walk away? I agree with the premise of your post. I think the miscues far out weig the positives, particulary Eaton and Garcia.
Posted 01:07 PM, 09/29/2008
phillyguy73
This is how I see the Phillies getting the 3 pm game. TBS wants to put the Cubs in prime time. With the Angels hosting game 1, TBS and MLB can have that series start at 10 pm on Wednesday. As a result, the closing thing to prime time is starting the Dodgers and Cubs at 630, leaving the Phils and Brewers for 3 pm. I'm just thankful MLB didn't make the Phils start at 1 pm.
Posted 01:49 PM, 09/29/2008
bobby
There's only one way the Phillies will get prime time treatment: When they are just one of two teams left in the NL.
Posted 02:06 PM, 09/29/2008
jimmymack
Truth - I let Gillick walk, mainly because I don't think any GM from Branch Rickey to Brian Cashman can make much difference with this ownership group. Hagen's interview with Monty told me all I need to know about where ownership's head is in regard to next year's budget. And with the Mets infusion of capital next year with the new park and 2 years of failure, we will be outbid trying to grab any impact free agents. So I'm going to enjoy the team's journey this season, 'cause I think the window will slam shut on us next year. Hope I'm wrong, certainly not trying to be a downer in what is a great time for the Fightings. Great team, clueless ownership, IMHO.
Posted 02:43 PM, 09/29/2008
Norma
Deb, jimmy, Karen.....I think this was the first time in my life that I ever cheered for Wes Helms!!!! LOL!
Posted 03:10 PM, 09/29/2008
jimmymack
Deb, Norma, Karen...finally a return on our investment. Who would of thought when we unloaded him that he would sink the Mutts for us. No doubt part of Gillick's master plan. LOL!
About Andy Martino
Andy Martino is in his first season on the Phillies beat. A former New York City public school teacher and graduate of the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, he previously wrote for the New York Daily News, where he covered baseball and worked with the award-winning investigative sports "I-team."
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