After two trades, Phillies still lacking power
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After two trades, Phillies still lacking power
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
He filled two holes in a lineup with many, so naturally, the question for Ruben Amaro Jr. was, "What else?"
Ben Revere and Michael Young certainly fill needs. How well, no one is sure. But that duo combined for eight home runs in 2012 and did not regularly hit for extra bases.
"We'd love to add more home runs," Amaro said. "But for me, again, it's about production. If we can produce runs – and I know that Ben can and I know that Michael can – and we have to get production out of the middle of our lineup. The guys we've paid to produce those runs. If we can get complementary [production] from Ben and Michael and get the kind of production we expect out of Ryan [Howard] and Chase [Utley], I think we're going to be fine."
Still, the overwhelming feeling is the Phillies are far from done. Not with the myriad questions in their outfield and a bounty of money to be spent.
Here is the 2012 Phillies' power production broken down by position with National League ranks in parentheses:
| POS | HR | SLG |
| C | 24 (3d) | .497 (1st) |
| 1B | 27 (4th) | .415 (11th) |
| 2B | 17 (5th) | .411 (2d) |
| 3B | 5 (16th) | .357 (15th) |
| SS | 23 (3d) | .413 (6th) |
| LF | 13 (11th) | .420 (10th) |
| CF | 16 (7th) | .412 (8th) |
| RF | 23 (7th) | .411 (11th) |
What is most interesting are the low ranks in slugging percentage at first base, third base, left field and right field. The corners are where power hitters traditionally reside. Up the middle, the Phillies were about as strong as possible.
The Phillies subtract this:
Shane Victorino: 9 HR, .401 SLG (431 PA)
Hunter Pence: 17 HR, .447 SLG (440 PA)
Placido Polanco: 2 HR, .327 SLG (328 PA)
Ty Wigginton: 11 HR, .375 SLG (360 PA)
Juan Pierre: 1 HR, .371 SLG (439 PA)
Jim Thome: 5 HR, .516 SLG (71 PA)
And what they've added, so far:
Ben Revere: 0 HR, .342 SLG (553 PA)
Michael Young: 8 HR, .370 SLG (651 PA)
The numbers from Carlos Ruiz and Erik Kratz were among the league's best. And, again, it's difficult to assume a repeat performance. Ruiz will miss the first 25 games due to suspension. He produced career-high figures in nearly every offensive category. Kratz wore down late in the season and still has plenty to prove.
Yes, there should be better production from first base in 2013. Remember, though, Howard's slugging percentage has declined in each of the last four seasons. There were red flags before the Achilles injury. Still, he did not play at 100 percent strength last season and the dip in slugging was was 65 points from 2011. There should be some normalization there.
Second base is a crapshoot, and that needs no further explanation.
It's difficult to do worse offensively at third base than the Phillies did in 2012. But notice that Young's numbers from 2012 do not represent a massive upgrade there. That is, unless Young recaptures his power stroke from seasons before.
Jimmy Rollins was one of the most productive shortstops in terms of power last season. He hit his most home runs (23) since 2009 and posted his highest slugging percentage since 2008. The Phillies will need a repeat performance.
The outfield was already in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage even with four months of Victorino and Pence. Revere has never hit a major-league home run and has a career .323 slugging percentage. So assume centerfield will be near the bottom of the league in both categories for 2013.
And that leaves us with the holes in left and right field. They are the only positions where Amaro can seek an upgrade, and are traditionally power spots in a lineup. Take three available free agents for example:
THREE-YEAR AVERAGES (2010-12)
Josh Hamilton: 33 HR, .583 SLG (582 PA)
Nick Swisher: 25 HR, .478 SLG (631 PA)
Cody Ross: 17 HR, .434 SLG (519 PA)
The Phillies figure to sign one of the aforementioned. They have approximately $20 million (in average annual value) of payroll to spend. They have already traded away four chips from a deep pitching stable. Now it's time to spend money.
They have long been connected to Ross, the demon from October 2010. (Remember that time the Giants barely won a waiver claim?) They are not said to fancy Swisher, perhaps because of his price. That could change.
Hamilton is the white whale. He is seeking a long-term deal out of the Phillies range, but those demands could lower given the lack of a market for the enigmatic slugger. Amaro briefly showed what he thinks of Hamilton last week. With their payroll flexibility, the Phillies could offer Hamilton a short-term, high-value contract.
It fits Amaro's penchant for a big splash. Hamilton's agent, Michael Moye, is among the most private in the business. His client may not be the ideal target, but there is most definitely a fit.
No, the Phillies do not need home runs to win. They need production, as Amaro terms it, and even after two trades it is still lacking.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Sign a reliever and a solid starter and go with what you got. Are people really looking to Cody Ross as the answer to this teams problems? If they can get solid pitching they can compete, then make a move at the deadline. To continue to spend just because the money is there even though the talent isn't good isn't the best approach. How'd that work for the RedSoxs? Let's see what the kids can do first— dmr528- "@warbiscuit's list of 40 things is pretty impressive."
We'll have to agree to disagree on that point. The vast majority of those decisions were very defensible based on the information available at the time.
Also, just as a general point, Amaro is the face of the franchise, but we don't know how much of what he does is solely his decision, and how much is directed or at least strongly encouraged by his bosses, i.e. the more engaged members of the ownership group. (I don't mean Ronny Paulino-type decisions, of course, but decisions on Lee, Howard, Hamels, etc.)— schmenkman - daystrum....you are the biggest idiot I have EVER read on here and that is saying a lot. You are a complete moron. I wish Eskin was here to call you a dope and laugh in your face.— Dr. D.
- daystrum....you are the biggest idiot I have EVER read on here and that is saying a lot. You are a complete moron. I wish Eskin was here to call you a dope and laugh in your face.— Dr. D.
- hey dogbiscuitthedope, get a load of this:
2011 National League East
Philadelphia 81-81 17 GB— so-called dogbiscuitthedope is a dope - Is warbiscuit a real person, no one can be that ignorant of baseball. I wish, just once he would post something midly resembeling reality. Every move the Phils made in the last 6 years was a bad one. Hard to believe they won 5 division titles. Warbiscuit, if it bothers you that much, stop watching, your blood pressure will go down and you'll feel much better. Meantime, those of us who endured 100 loss seasons, in the past, will enjoy the best decade in Phils history. You really believe that if Utley, Howard and Halladay were not injured last year that the Phils wouldn't have won 7 more games. That puts them in the post season. We need to fix the back end of the pen and get another starter. I'm not ready to attend a funeral for the Phils yet. They won 102 games two years ago. Get a grip on life.— dond2885
- Howard, Utley and Haladay 3rd base 8th inning guy and center - now add a starter.
We have cf and third - we need the 8th inning guy but what we really need are those three guys to get and stay healthy -— robinlupe - Power is the last thing to go, 33 is pretty young to me— robinlupe
- When you get a chance, go to baseball reference.com and see what just about every regular Phillie was doing at age 33. Most of them were either having or already had that season that convinced them to retire or convinced their team that they were pinch hitters: Rico Brogna, Bake McBride, Von Hayes, John Kruk, Greg Luzinski, Dick Allen, Mickey Morandini, Len Dykstra, Dave Cash, Ted Sizemore, Garry Maddox, Willie Montanez, Juan Samuel, Manny Trillo, Jay Johnstone, Richie Hebner, Bo Diaz, Ozzie Virgil, Darren Daulton, Doug Glanville, Mike Lieberthal, Pat Burrell... — jtj06
- Papelbon was a bad move? You'd have paid to watch Madsen sit all year perhaps?— robinlupe
- Amaro would never bring Swisher in. He wastes too much time waiting for strikes, gets on base a lot. Amaro has yet to acquire or show interest in a player with those valuable qualities and with each one that leaves- first Burrell (replaced by free swinging Ibanez), then Werth (replaced by free swinging Pence) the Phillies sink further into the abyss. When a patient hitter comes up through the system (Brown, Ruf) Amaro puts up road blocks. Brown was in the middle of a full month as a starter with a .398 OBP in 2011 when Amaro sold the farm to replace him with free swinging Pence. Based on this data, I've concluded Amaro doesn't understand baseball.— jtj06
- Rube-the Boob general manages about as well as he played. It's a shame. Injuries played into it - but it really has been bad personnel decisions that wrecked this organization. Hard to imagine it being any worse. We have no real good OFers (will any of the 3 penciled in even be on the All-Star ballot??) We have an old guy at 3B who had his worst year last season and who hasn't played 3B regularly (it didn't sound like even Michael Young thought that Michael Young could play everyday at 3B). Outside of the very shaky Pap, we have do not have a good bullpen. J-Stroll will stroll in again (all smiles - as usual). Chooch is a question mark now. The Big 3 starters are going to have to be great - spectacular really - for 2013 to be a good year at CBP. And, those 3 are going to have to produce in games where the offense isn't carrying the load (which is tough to do consistently). What's worse is that the Boob has traded away the future. Their "stars" are untradeable and the prospects are in other uniforms (traded for the likes of Pence and Oswalt). How can Monty and the Blue-Bloods keep Clueless Rube around? Isn't it obvious that he sucks? — Copper34
- We have sme of the worst GM'S in sports. Hammilton should be the choice. Anybody else is like nix. Swisher had a horrible year last year. Are always going to go after the the guys that are going to have the bounce back years. Hammilton is a legit super star . which we don't have on this team anymore . I say get him and release someone else if ti doesnt work. They can afford to go over the budget once and while. Our good players aren't getting any younger. So do something big while they still have some life. Honestly I can care less about how much any of them make. I just want to see a good product consistantly. I mean how many of us are at there best all the time. I'd pay a couple of dollars more to see Josh play. I'm sure if we got him knowbody would be complaining. Well this is Philadelphia so maybe a little complaining. I think the people that complain need to remember knowbody is perfect know matter how much money they make.— duncan2288
- Power hitting will be a big problem for the 2013 Phillies. Howard is getting up in years and his strikeout mania will probably get worse. Can we count on Utley with those bad knees? After those two who else can we count on for power especially from the right side?— fanup
