After two trades, Phillies still lacking power
He filled two holes in a lineup with many, so naturally, the question for Ruben Amaro Jr. was, "What else?"
After two trades, Phillies still lacking power
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
He filled two holes in a lineup with many, so naturally, the question for Ruben Amaro Jr. was, "What else?"
Ben Revere and Michael Young certainly fill needs. How well, no one is sure. But that duo combined for eight home runs in 2012 and did not regularly hit for extra bases.
"We'd love to add more home runs," Amaro said. "But for me, again, it's about production. If we can produce runs – and I know that Ben can and I know that Michael can – and we have to get production out of the middle of our lineup. The guys we've paid to produce those runs. If we can get complementary [production] from Ben and Michael and get the kind of production we expect out of Ryan [Howard] and Chase [Utley], I think we're going to be fine."
Still, the overwhelming feeling is the Phillies are far from done. Not with the myriad questions in their outfield and a bounty of money to be spent.
Here is the 2012 Phillies' power production broken down by position with National League ranks in parentheses:
| POS | HR | SLG |
| C | 24 (3d) | .497 (1st) |
| 1B | 27 (4th) | .415 (11th) |
| 2B | 17 (5th) | .411 (2d) |
| 3B | 5 (16th) | .357 (15th) |
| SS | 23 (3d) | .413 (6th) |
| LF | 13 (11th) | .420 (10th) |
| CF | 16 (7th) | .412 (8th) |
| RF | 23 (7th) | .411 (11th) |
What is most interesting are the low ranks in slugging percentage at first base, third base, left field and right field. The corners are where power hitters traditionally reside. Up the middle, the Phillies were about as strong as possible.
The Phillies subtract this:
Shane Victorino: 9 HR, .401 SLG (431 PA)
Hunter Pence: 17 HR, .447 SLG (440 PA)
Placido Polanco: 2 HR, .327 SLG (328 PA)
Ty Wigginton: 11 HR, .375 SLG (360 PA)
Juan Pierre: 1 HR, .371 SLG (439 PA)
Jim Thome: 5 HR, .516 SLG (71 PA)
And what they've added, so far:
Ben Revere: 0 HR, .342 SLG (553 PA)
Michael Young: 8 HR, .370 SLG (651 PA)
The numbers from Carlos Ruiz and Erik Kratz were among the league's best. And, again, it's difficult to assume a repeat performance. Ruiz will miss the first 25 games due to suspension. He produced career-high figures in nearly every offensive category. Kratz wore down late in the season and still has plenty to prove.
Yes, there should be better production from first base in 2013. Remember, though, Howard's slugging percentage has declined in each of the last four seasons. There were red flags before the Achilles injury. Still, he did not play at 100 percent strength last season and the dip in slugging was was 65 points from 2011. There should be some normalization there.
Second base is a crapshoot, and that needs no further explanation.
It's difficult to do worse offensively at third base than the Phillies did in 2012. But notice that Young's numbers from 2012 do not represent a massive upgrade there. That is, unless Young recaptures his power stroke from seasons before.
Jimmy Rollins was one of the most productive shortstops in terms of power last season. He hit his most home runs (23) since 2009 and posted his highest slugging percentage since 2008. The Phillies will need a repeat performance.
The outfield was already in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage even with four months of Victorino and Pence. Revere has never hit a major-league home run and has a career .323 slugging percentage. So assume centerfield will be near the bottom of the league in both categories for 2013.
And that leaves us with the holes in left and right field. They are the only positions where Amaro can seek an upgrade, and are traditionally power spots in a lineup. Take three available free agents for example:
THREE-YEAR AVERAGES (2010-12)
Josh Hamilton: 33 HR, .583 SLG (582 PA)
Nick Swisher: 25 HR, .478 SLG (631 PA)
Cody Ross: 17 HR, .434 SLG (519 PA)
The Phillies figure to sign one of the aforementioned. They have approximately $20 million (in average annual value) of payroll to spend. They have already traded away four chips from a deep pitching stable. Now it's time to spend money.
They have long been connected to Ross, the demon from October 2010. (Remember that time the Giants barely won a waiver claim?) They are not said to fancy Swisher, perhaps because of his price. That could change.
Hamilton is the white whale. He is seeking a long-term deal out of the Phillies range, but those demands could lower given the lack of a market for the enigmatic slugger. Amaro briefly showed what he thinks of Hamilton last week. With their payroll flexibility, the Phillies could offer Hamilton a short-term, high-value contract.
It fits Amaro's penchant for a big splash. Hamilton's agent, Michael Moye, is among the most private in the business. His client may not be the ideal target, but there is most definitely a fit.
No, the Phillies do not need home runs to win. They need production, as Amaro terms it, and even after two trades it is still lacking.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
RAJ replaced Polanco/Victorino/Pense with Young, Revere, and Brown. Polanco made $6 million, Victornino $9 million, and Pense $10.5 million. Kendrick replaces Blanton in the rotation ($3.25 million vs. $9 million). Payroll is down for a reason folks, you can't have $15-$20 million at every position. Young/Polanco is a wash except Young is healthier and hopefully, unlike the past 2 seasons, will play at least 140 games and not spend most of the season with nagging injuries. Kendrick vs. Blanton is a wash, in my estimations. Revere is younger and a better hitter than Victorino, yet we do loose some power from Shane. Ruf will be that right handed power bat. Stop with the Swisher stuff. Ruf is the real deal and should be given a chance to play everyday. He could project 25 HR's, which is better than what we got last season in LF. Pierre/Revere is a wash too. Spend the money on another starter reliever. Heck, the way the market is shaping up, try to get Soriano (the pitcher) on a one year deal to be the 8th inning guy.— drhoffman- Charlie said at the winter meetings he wants two right-handed hitters for the outfield corners just like it was with Burrell and Werth back in the glory days. Looks like that means Ruf and a Cody Ross type at the corners and likely John Mayberry to spell Ruf when ahead close and late for outfield defense. Nix then as the fifth outfield swing and miss left-handed bat bat off the bench who might run into one every once in a great while. Looks like Susdorf, Mitchell, Castro, Gillies and Brownie in the AAA outfield slots.— Dull
- Giants won the World Series last year while ranking last in the majors in home runs. Hitting is about driving the ball on a consistant basis, not knocking the ball out of the park.— bdd5014
- The Dodgers are throwing money at everything that moves, give them Howard and all his salary, sign Hamilton, and let Ruf play 1st. Too bad Dodgers already have A-Gon at 1st.— ronin32
- With the upcoming TV deal Josh Hamilton HAS to be a Phillie. Id Josh starts fasing in year 4 or 5 so what the Phillies will be looking at $200 M-$250 M in newfound TV revenue.
Get the Hamilton jerseys printed now in time for Xmas.— argonne - Young had a horrible 2012 but an excellent 2011. What will 2013 be? I worry about another "over the hill" infielder with possibly health issues and we're back to Polanco and Frandsen. Revere is a singles hitter, great defensive outfielder with a pop gun arm but a guy who can steal bases. What does all of this mean? Well, not much unless they trade for a 30hr/100rbi right handed OF. Without a trade, is it Swisher, Ross or Hamilton? And how about a middle reliever? Or 4th starter?— walt1
- This season will come down to the health of three players: Utley, Howard, and Doc. Young and Revere are only fringe pieces and were not signed to reverse the fortunes of the team. They have upside and provide intrigue for the upcoming season. The only guy out on the market this year who has the potential to be a true difference maker is Hamilton, but committing a long term contract to him would be foolish. So, what do you do if you're Amaro? I think the GM has done well so far and piqued the fanbase with some interesting moves. IMHO, if Howard and Utley can stay on the field for the entire year this team can play .600 ball and contend for a playoff spot, which is all that we can realistically hope for under the circumstances. Look ahead to big free agents NEXT year when Utley comes off the books and a new skipper takes the helm.— Sam Crow
- THE OTHER KEY CRITICAL COMPONENT IS --YES PRODUCTION RAJ MENTIONS SF--WELL THEIR MANAGER KNOWS HOW TO PLAY SMALL BALL EXTREMELY WELL --CM IS A SMALL BALL DOLT-!!!-SO RAJ YOU GOT A SQUARE PEG MANAGER TRYING TO FIT INTO A ROUND HOLE--NEVER HAPPEN!!— carmen2
- They have Howard, Ruf and Rollins (and they should have kept .).— Phillies2008WSChamps
- Find it odd how Ruf is being overlooked; kid hit 52 homeruns last season, looked good at the plate in his brief time in the Show. Swisher would NOT be a good fit, as Matt Gelb is only interested in seeing his hot wife at the games. For those posters who want the Phillies to throw money at Hamilton, how happy are you with the long-term highly priced Halladay, Lee, Howard, Utley, Rollins? Hamilton is far too risky for the expense. For once, Amaro needs to look at his farm system not as disposable trade bait, but as valuable contributors to the big club. Have to disagree with drhoffman on Young; he has the potential to be an even worst fielder at third than Frandsen, who showed as well last season that he can hit for average in the NL, while Young has spent his career in the AL and has been a DH for two seasons. Shades of the Jim Thome experiment. Hope I am wrong. BTW: really wish at some point that both leagues either used the DH or dropped the DH; having two professional leagues with different rules is asinine.— chuckw
- Pence.— Phillies2008WSChamps
- I don't think they have to sign anybody. I would like to see them start using the guys in the minors so they can know if they can do the job or not. I would like to see them spend he $$ on a guy like Sanchez or Jackson, guys who could potentially replace a Halladay or Lee when they retire in a few years. Let Kendrick fight for the 5th spot with Cloyd, Pettibone and whoever else has a good Spring. I think if Stutes is healthy he is just as good as Adams, or anyone else they are likely to get. Aumont looked like a beast, if they can get him to throw strikes. Let Ruf, Galvis, Aumont, Valle, Hernandez, etc all have a shot this spring. Why not see what they can do, instead of going after potential disasters like Hamilton, who is a beer away from a meltdown which would hamstring the ballclub for years to come....NOT worth the risk. Might as well call Manny Ramirez instead.— Paul SoTX
- Should have traded Utley when he was hot. To expect power from him this year is a stretch after watching him last year. Bat lost its pop.— smarterthanyou
- I haven't seen Bonilla pitch, but his numbers in AA were very impressive against other teams' up and coming:
33ip; 22h; 1hr(!); 46k; 17bb. That's more than impressive enough to tell me that there is a real chance that he could be a bona fide major leaguer in a year or two. Young, on the other hand will be gone from the Phillies and probably gone from baseball by the time the Phillies might contend again (if they will please start acquiring prospects instead of trading them away).— altoonaaslan - @bdd....right you are! It's about scoring runs...."run production" as Amaro calls it. Very different definition than apparently what Murph calls it which is "power" and it appears Murph's fav stat is slugging %. Having Revere at the top of the lineup, having Young spraying line drives all around the park(I don't care if he doesn't hit them out), having Utley and his line drives/HRs, Ruiz/Kratz with their HRs, Howard with the occasional HR and JRoll with the occasional popup.....we should be fine. That isn't even counting Ruf and the minimum 25 he will probably hit and maybe 15 from DBrown. What we need is fewer Ks and more walks. Walks set the table and put immediate pressure on the other pitcher/team. HRs are nice, slugging % is nice, but what really matters is OBP....— Mark1npt
