After two trades, Phillies still lacking power
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After two trades, Phillies still lacking power
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
He filled two holes in a lineup with many, so naturally, the question for Ruben Amaro Jr. was, "What else?"
Ben Revere and Michael Young certainly fill needs. How well, no one is sure. But that duo combined for eight home runs in 2012 and did not regularly hit for extra bases.
"We'd love to add more home runs," Amaro said. "But for me, again, it's about production. If we can produce runs – and I know that Ben can and I know that Michael can – and we have to get production out of the middle of our lineup. The guys we've paid to produce those runs. If we can get complementary [production] from Ben and Michael and get the kind of production we expect out of Ryan [Howard] and Chase [Utley], I think we're going to be fine."
Still, the overwhelming feeling is the Phillies are far from done. Not with the myriad questions in their outfield and a bounty of money to be spent.
Here is the 2012 Phillies' power production broken down by position with National League ranks in parentheses:
| POS | HR | SLG |
| C | 24 (3d) | .497 (1st) |
| 1B | 27 (4th) | .415 (11th) |
| 2B | 17 (5th) | .411 (2d) |
| 3B | 5 (16th) | .357 (15th) |
| SS | 23 (3d) | .413 (6th) |
| LF | 13 (11th) | .420 (10th) |
| CF | 16 (7th) | .412 (8th) |
| RF | 23 (7th) | .411 (11th) |
What is most interesting are the low ranks in slugging percentage at first base, third base, left field and right field. The corners are where power hitters traditionally reside. Up the middle, the Phillies were about as strong as possible.
The Phillies subtract this:
Shane Victorino: 9 HR, .401 SLG (431 PA)
Hunter Pence: 17 HR, .447 SLG (440 PA)
Placido Polanco: 2 HR, .327 SLG (328 PA)
Ty Wigginton: 11 HR, .375 SLG (360 PA)
Juan Pierre: 1 HR, .371 SLG (439 PA)
Jim Thome: 5 HR, .516 SLG (71 PA)
And what they've added, so far:
Ben Revere: 0 HR, .342 SLG (553 PA)
Michael Young: 8 HR, .370 SLG (651 PA)
The numbers from Carlos Ruiz and Erik Kratz were among the league's best. And, again, it's difficult to assume a repeat performance. Ruiz will miss the first 25 games due to suspension. He produced career-high figures in nearly every offensive category. Kratz wore down late in the season and still has plenty to prove.
Yes, there should be better production from first base in 2013. Remember, though, Howard's slugging percentage has declined in each of the last four seasons. There were red flags before the Achilles injury. Still, he did not play at 100 percent strength last season and the dip in slugging was was 65 points from 2011. There should be some normalization there.
Second base is a crapshoot, and that needs no further explanation.
It's difficult to do worse offensively at third base than the Phillies did in 2012. But notice that Young's numbers from 2012 do not represent a massive upgrade there. That is, unless Young recaptures his power stroke from seasons before.
Jimmy Rollins was one of the most productive shortstops in terms of power last season. He hit his most home runs (23) since 2009 and posted his highest slugging percentage since 2008. The Phillies will need a repeat performance.
The outfield was already in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage even with four months of Victorino and Pence. Revere has never hit a major-league home run and has a career .323 slugging percentage. So assume centerfield will be near the bottom of the league in both categories for 2013.
And that leaves us with the holes in left and right field. They are the only positions where Amaro can seek an upgrade, and are traditionally power spots in a lineup. Take three available free agents for example:
THREE-YEAR AVERAGES (2010-12)
Josh Hamilton: 33 HR, .583 SLG (582 PA)
Nick Swisher: 25 HR, .478 SLG (631 PA)
Cody Ross: 17 HR, .434 SLG (519 PA)
The Phillies figure to sign one of the aforementioned. They have approximately $20 million (in average annual value) of payroll to spend. They have already traded away four chips from a deep pitching stable. Now it's time to spend money.
They have long been connected to Ross, the demon from October 2010. (Remember that time the Giants barely won a waiver claim?) They are not said to fancy Swisher, perhaps because of his price. That could change.
Hamilton is the white whale. He is seeking a long-term deal out of the Phillies range, but those demands could lower given the lack of a market for the enigmatic slugger. Amaro briefly showed what he thinks of Hamilton last week. With their payroll flexibility, the Phillies could offer Hamilton a short-term, high-value contract.
It fits Amaro's penchant for a big splash. Hamilton's agent, Michael Moye, is among the most private in the business. His client may not be the ideal target, but there is most definitely a fit.
No, the Phillies do not need home runs to win. They need production, as Amaro terms it, and even after two trades it is still lacking.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
RAJ will hopefully make his usual big Dec deal by signing Josh to a 4yr deal. Here's a lineup that will produce and be tough for late game matchups...Utley, Rollins, Hamilton, Young, Howard, Ruf, Ruiz, Revere.— parkwood- If Halliday doesn't rebound, this season is toast.
— Professor1982 - even if Michael Young turns out to "not bad" and marginally better than the Phils awful 3rd basemen last year, he isn't Beltre, Revere isn't Hamilton (or even a Ludwick), and Phils meaningless moves do not put them anywhere near the the top dozen teams in baseball or make them a relevant team worth following, with just 2 better than avg players (Hamels, Lee) remaining in their entire organization— warbiscuit
- Hopefully they don't bury Ruf back in the minors again. He can certainly add the much needed power from the right side and after hitting 52 HRs last year (including winter ball) he certainly deserves the opportunity to play. I'd be OK with a Ross/Brown platoon in RF, but if I had to chose I'd rather spend my money on a really strong 8th inning guy or two which killed us last year(Mike Adams) and live with Mayberry/Brown.— dankil13
- No on Swisher. If they are going to give up their draft pick to sign someone, it had better be Hamilton. That being said, I'd rather go with someone in the middle of the pack like Ross, use some money on an 8th inning guy and leave the rest for some mid season flexibility.— sjuhawk416
- Hamilton isn't possible -- Rangers lost Napoli and Young, missed out on Grienke, the Upton deal too complicated, so if Rangers fail to resign Hamilton they'll have a fan revolt. Plus Hamilton would blow the Phils budget.
Swisher is the better choice of the rest. He hits from both sides. and that will leave some $$$ available for a lefty in the pen, and/or another starter.— ExiledinFla - Assuming Brown is "supposed" to get the right field job, then why do all the articles refer to "two" outfield corner upgrades as opposed to one? They can't afford two....they should however throw their money at either Hamilton, Swisher or make a trade for Granderson. Yep, thats right, the Grandyman can hit 35-45 homers a year and is a better fielder than what they have had in left (even though he plays center), the problem is, Amaro has traded away everything over years, recklessly decimating the farm which he should be fired for doing but instead, will be rewarded by Monty and Giles. Unfortunately, being a realist and not in denial, delusional or an Amaro/Cholly apologist, I am afraid that Amaro has already destroyed the team. They are now doomed to mediocrity, and as either a result of unprecidented incompetence or the willful machinations of Monty and Giles, a team that could have transitioned seamlessly into a continuing division power has now deteriorated into an anemic shadow of itself. Its time to boycott and demand that Bud Selig force the sale of the team to new owners, owners with integrity, vision and most of all, brains.— daystrum
- LOL, missed the playoffs for the first time in 6 yrs and you're demanding MLB forces them to sell the team. I guess the other 25 teams should all be sold as well? Hell lets sell them all! Your lack of baseball knowledge is stunning — DogBiscuitthedope
- You are blind to the fact that Dallas Green and Pat Gillick are still on the Phillies payroll and are Senior Advisors to both Giles and Montgomery as well as Amaro Jr. As such, I doubt that Amaro has carte blanche to do as he pleases with regard to player acquisitions and such.
I think the plan is working. I would bet that Cody Ross will be playing right for the Phillies in 2013 with Dominic Brown somehow playing in the mix. The big guy is going to get his shot in left and Philadelphia has an acrobat cruising center. People can argue on these blogs until the cows come home but the undeniable truth is that you need more than three strong outfielders over the course of a long regular season and there are plenty of bats for all of these players. For the corner outfielders, performance on the field will dictate who is a regular and who pinch hits and starts every so often.— World - Where is all this talent that amaro traded away? Bourne was traded for a pretty good player who got injured (Lidge). Injuries have destroyed this team. IF, and that's an extremely big if, the entire roster comes back healthy, this team could easily be in the world series conversation next fall. Forget Hamilton, it's not happening. For the simple fact that hes a lefty! They wont sign him, let alone the fact that they dont have the money. The only reason it will take some time to sign their remaining outfielder and pitchers is because they are trying to drive down the asking prices. Count on them spending $7-10 mil for an outfielder, $5 for a mid reliever and $2 for a starting pitcher. If amaro does that, then he's done his job, and that's all he can do. — Stone Johnson
- bolster the bullpen, move back the fences in left and right center to major league distance— retzlaff
- We don't need Jimmy to hit homeruns. Jimmy needs to get on base. Homeruns are over rated imho. Small ball, quality pitching, good defense. Ruben needs to concentrate on the pitching. Don't sign any more old guys who are at risk to breakdown during the year. I'd rather have a full season with JMJ than half a season with Hamilton. Then again, I would almost certainly be the worst gm ever but I just don't like Jimmy's low on-base percentage.— swisstafari
- Howard is hitting under 170 and averaging 2 strikeouts a game against lefthanders. Ruf should platoon with Howard, against lefthanders, and and play leftfield against righthanders.— farley
- Make one last push with this group of older guys ... sign HAMILTION to play LF. Let Ruff play LF for the Iron Pigs to get some experience there, if Howard continues to struggle against leftys, bring Ruff up to take some of those ab's from Howard.— ChangeISNeeded
- There is absolutely zero reason to sign a guy like Swisher or Cody Ross to play LF or RF. Complete waste of money when you consider that the ceilings of Brown & Ruf are much higher. Roll with the kids, if they don't get it done, I'm sure with a healthy Howard, Utley, and Staff, you will be in contention at the All Star break. Upgrade then if need be. Not now. Let the kids play without someone knocking on the door behind them. This team needs that youth injected into it!!— FetchDixon
