Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
There was not enough space in Thursday's Inquirer to detail all of the possible outfield scenarios for the 2013 Phillies, so one was prioritized: Trading Hunter Pence.
When the Phillies acquired Pence last July, he represented everything an aging contender was looking for. He was under 30, batted righthanded, and more than two years away from free agency.
Now?
Pence is having a fine season. I used that word in Thursday's story, and many have taken umbrage to that. I didn't say "good" or "great." It's just "fine," because an .834 OPS ranks 13th among National League outfielders. That's decent. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage rank second on the Phillies. He leads the Phillies with 16 home runs. That's good. His numbers with runners in scoring position are lacking. His fielding is suspect at times.
It all equates to a confusing player who is making $10.4 million in 2012, turns 30 next April and will make close to $15 million in 2013. Beyond that, he will seek superstar money once he reaches free agency for the first time.
Is he a player the Phillies want to commit to long-term?
That's a hard question to answer, and few officials have given an indication for either direction. It's why I floated the idea of trading Pence in Thursday's story.
The Phillies surrendered three Top 10 prospects for Pence last July. Jonathan Singleton ranks as Houston's No. 1 prospect; Jarred Cosart is No. 2 and Domingo Santana is sixth -- all according to Baseball America. Would Pence fetch a similar package now? No. He is one year closer to free agency.
But he still has a year of arbitration remaining, no matter how expensive it may be, and that raises his value in the trade market this July. The Phillies will seek a bounty for Cole Hamels if they attempt to trade him. But Hamels can land only so much because the acquiring team knows he is a rental player.
Pence could be worth more.
So why not take the $15 million you would spend in 2013 on one outfielder (Pence) and spend it on two? Shane Victorino's terrible season could make him more apt to accept a shorter-term deal to stay in Philadelphia. Why, you ask, would the Phillies want him? Well, he's still solid defensively and it's clear the impending contract situation has affected his play. Maybe the next deal relieves pressure.
Pence could possibly fetch a decent third-base prospect or a younger outfielder. The free-agent market is flush with outfield options like Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Cody Ross, and Delmon Young. Pair one of them with Victorino and maybe you could spend between $15 - $20 million on two outfielders in 2013. If Pence stays, it's much more expensive. Plus, now you've restocked with possibly two decent prospects in return for Pence.
Andre Ethier's recent five-year, $85 million set the bar for a 30-year-old outfielder with a career .844 OPS. Pence has a career .829 OPS and would probably command just as much, if not more, when his time arrives. Again, is that a commitment the Phillies are willing to make?
If not, they should trade Pence when his value is at its highest. And that is right now.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
biscuit, i'm sure singleton has his plaque made for the HOF already. Get over it. Pence was what we needed last year and it didn't work out. Don't forget Gillick traded Gio for one win Freddy. That proved more costly than Singleton.— palmyra21- Singleton is hitting .271 at AA, 12 HR in 284 AB's, not exactly killer numbers for a blue chip guy. Cosart is 4-6 with over 4.00 ERA. Hitters averaging .282 against him. Again, not big numbers. If Pence would get a few more hits with RISP, there would not be this disagreement among the fans. I'm no fan of Rube right now, but the Pence trade was not as bad as Biscuit likes to point out.... Maybe it's just me, but Biscuit's points would be generally accepted easier if we didn't have to read them over and over and over....We get it.— dirttracker
- I'd trade any or all of: Pence, Utley, Victorino, Rollins, and Polonco if we can but keep the Hamels and Lee. Bring up Brown and Mayberry for the rest of the season and reload with free agents next year. Restock farm system with those trades and start considering bring up the young players sooner going forward!— connorjr
- Singleton had no place on this team in the future due to Howard. They tried him in the OF and it was a disaster, so getting rid of him was the best option. Still, they overpaid for Pence in the end. He has trade value, not as much as what they gave up for him, but enough to land a decent prospect or two. Utley is also a trade candidate, especially if the Phils pick up 6 or so million on his contract. He would make a fine DH and would help lengthen his career. I would love to see Lee get traded if it meant keeping Colbert and Vic can net an OK prospect or two. I would love to see them make a run to get Justin Upton (start with Pence and DBrown) and sign BJ Upton in the winter and in LF just find someone who can fill the position (for a team that has run out such defensive stalwarts as Burrell, Ibanez and Pierre in recent years, they can't find much worse).— ESFjellin
- I was one of the few here last year that said bring in m. cabrera instead of pence he is 2 years younger season he is having now is tremendous hitting over .350(last year cabrera had over 200 hits)well many here wanted pence and you have him and his wild swings, mis-judgement of balls in the outfield low batting avg with runners in scoring position..trade him.— only 9
- warbiscuit, I am not even sure what point you are trying to make. So is Rube an idiot for bringing in Halladay because he has no trade value today? Until this season Victorinio was a 295 hitting gold glove centerfielder who has some power and steals 30 bags a year. How many of those are floating around? By your theory a guy has a bad first half of a season and now he's worthless. You know absolutely nothing about baseball. BTW those 23 players that are worthless helped win 5 division titles in a row.— bobf876
- you guys ripping Ruben on Pence now felt that way when we landed him?? stop it - this team was put in a great position to win another title the last two years - with large credit to Ruben Amaro's moves - and they CHOKED— PhillyExcitement
- I'd trade Victorino and Pence, sign Michael Bourn to play center, and then a Melky Cabrera type player to play right and finally give Dominic Brown a shot at the big leagues in LF. How much worse could his defense be then Pence or Ibanez? What's more, if you actually look at the metrics, Brown has better defensive stats than Ibanez (more range, better arm), and you'd assume that he improves with time. Everyone doesn't need to be a gold glover, if Dom Brown can be at least adequate, even barely adequate and you have strong defenders in center, right, or on the infield, how many games do you think that ONE defensive player costs you? How many runs? Over the course of a season, MAYBE 1 or 2. Give the kid his shot next year. Victorino is maybe the dumbest, most frustrating baseball player I've ever seen. He's been my least favorite Philly since day one. I was lukewarm on Pence from the beginning, warmed up to him a bit when he had that great second half for us, and am now reminded of why I was so lukewarm in the first place. Move on and use the money to sign more stable options, inject some more youth into this team, and free up money to sign Hamels if at all possible. To that end, Victorino, Pence, Blanton, and Polanco should ALL be on the trading block. Even if it is only for a handful of prospects and to unload the contracts for the second half.— MattKnife
- I'd trade Victorino and Pence, sign Michael Bourn to play center, and then a Melky Cabrera type player to play right and finally give Dominic Brown a shot at the big leagues in LF. How much worse could his defense be then Pence or Ibanez? What's more, if you actually look at the metrics, Brown has better defensive stats than Ibanez (more range, better arm), and you'd assume that he improves with time. Everyone doesn't need to be a gold glover, if Dom Brown can be at least adequate, even barely adequate and you have strong defenders in center, right, or on the infield, how many games do you think that ONE defensive player costs you? How many runs? Over the course of a season, MAYBE 1 or 2. Give the kid his shot next year. Victorino is maybe the dumbest, most frustrating baseball player I've ever seen. He's been my least favorite Philly since day one. I was lukewarm on Pence from the beginning, warmed up to him a bit when he had that great second half for us, and am now reminded of why I was so lukewarm in the first place. Move on and use the money to sign more stable options, inject some more youth into this team, and free up money to sign Hamels if at all possible. To that end, Victorino, Pence, Blanton, and Polanco should ALL be on the trading block. Even if it is only for a handful of prospects and to unload the contracts for the second half.— MattKnife
- yes I ripped Oswalt and Pence trades at the time.... chuck Lamar -- an intelligent baseball man for much longer than the inexperienced Amaro --resigned because he couldn't fathom Amaro's gutting the Phils minor leagues and future to an unprecedented degree ..it's one thing to trade prospects for legitimate -- if aging -- aces like Lee and Halladay, but it's quite another to sell out the future for overrated short-term fixes like Oswalt and Pence....it seems that once Amaro got such attention and accolades for the Lee and Halladay acquistions he let it go to his head and thought he could just continue to gut the system for short term fixes to cover his failures (he should have acquired an outfielder to replace Werth BEFORE the 2011 season as he should have acquired another starter BEFORE the 2010 season)— warbiscuit
- Biscuit sees every Phillies prospect as a sure fire can't miss Hall of Famer. Biscuit is on record taking issue with the Halladay trade and referred to Kyle Drabek (a total BUST) of the 8-15 record and +5.30 ERA, Travis D'Arnaud (not ONE MLB at Bat) and Michael Taylor (51 Plate Appearances) as "superstars". A trade that anyone with baseball sense would make any damn day! How is JA Happ doing, Biscuit? Lou Marson? Carlos Carrasco? Sure hope you are not playing the stock market, pal, because you sound like a fool or a Met's fan.— Special Agent Fox Mulder
- Has to be the worst outfield in baseball. Thx Rube. Trade them both if you can, and sign Bourn. He is buds with Howard, so hopefully he can convince him, although with that agent of his...good luck— phillyceltic
- Pence hit .339 with RISP last year. For his career he's a .291 hitter with RISP and his been a average fielder with a good and accurate arm. He's just having one of those years. He also has been asked to hit clean up when he's not a clean up hitter. He has a .254 BA in the 4th hole. As a 3rd and 5th hitter, he's batting .300. So please, get inform before commenting.— EL Zorro
- you hit the nail on the head here. IF the phils considered trading Pence, they BETTER get close to as much as they paid for him. His numbers this season are basically as good if not better in some categories as the rest of his career to date. Is he a superstar that's gonna carry the team? No. But put him in the 5-spot on a good team where he belongs and you have yourself a winner. For playing in a role that he shouldn't be playing, he's having a pretty good year if you ask me, and should fetch a LOT should they attempt to trade him. — Momjeanz
- MattKnife, have you seen Brown play? Forget about the metrics. Watch him play in person preferrebly.— EL Zorro
