Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
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Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
There was not enough space in Thursday's Inquirer to detail all of the possible outfield scenarios for the 2013 Phillies, so one was prioritized: Trading Hunter Pence.
When the Phillies acquired Pence last July, he represented everything an aging contender was looking for. He was under 30, batted righthanded, and more than two years away from free agency.
Now?
Pence is having a fine season. I used that word in Thursday's story, and many have taken umbrage to that. I didn't say "good" or "great." It's just "fine," because an .834 OPS ranks 13th among National League outfielders. That's decent. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage rank second on the Phillies. He leads the Phillies with 16 home runs. That's good. His numbers with runners in scoring position are lacking. His fielding is suspect at times.
It all equates to a confusing player who is making $10.4 million in 2012, turns 30 next April and will make close to $15 million in 2013. Beyond that, he will seek superstar money once he reaches free agency for the first time.
Is he a player the Phillies want to commit to long-term?
That's a hard question to answer, and few officials have given an indication for either direction. It's why I floated the idea of trading Pence in Thursday's story.
The Phillies surrendered three Top 10 prospects for Pence last July. Jonathan Singleton ranks as Houston's No. 1 prospect; Jarred Cosart is No. 2 and Domingo Santana is sixth -- all according to Baseball America. Would Pence fetch a similar package now? No. He is one year closer to free agency.
But he still has a year of arbitration remaining, no matter how expensive it may be, and that raises his value in the trade market this July. The Phillies will seek a bounty for Cole Hamels if they attempt to trade him. But Hamels can land only so much because the acquiring team knows he is a rental player.
Pence could be worth more.
So why not take the $15 million you would spend in 2013 on one outfielder (Pence) and spend it on two? Shane Victorino's terrible season could make him more apt to accept a shorter-term deal to stay in Philadelphia. Why, you ask, would the Phillies want him? Well, he's still solid defensively and it's clear the impending contract situation has affected his play. Maybe the next deal relieves pressure.
Pence could possibly fetch a decent third-base prospect or a younger outfielder. The free-agent market is flush with outfield options like Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Cody Ross, and Delmon Young. Pair one of them with Victorino and maybe you could spend between $15 - $20 million on two outfielders in 2013. If Pence stays, it's much more expensive. Plus, now you've restocked with possibly two decent prospects in return for Pence.
Andre Ethier's recent five-year, $85 million set the bar for a 30-year-old outfielder with a career .844 OPS. Pence has a career .829 OPS and would probably command just as much, if not more, when his time arrives. Again, is that a commitment the Phillies are willing to make?
If not, they should trade Pence when his value is at its highest. And that is right now.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Typical Ruben, give a King's ransom to acquire a player, and a Jester's to trade him away.— HulkHogan- Amaro walked into an idea situation. We were loaded for bear. A tweak here/there and we win another championship or two. That's in the past. Time to implode, explode, whateva. Just blow it up and show us you can build a winner from the ground up. The worst he can do is stay the course. It was great while it lasted, but it's over. Show us what you're workin' with, Amaro.
- clear that Pence and Victorino are effectively worthless and nobody would give anything of value for either of them... the joke is once again on the clueless rube who gave away 3 valuable prospects for Pence in one of the worst deals in history and wouldn't even get back 1/3 of what he paid -- good luck finding a prospect like Singleton even if he traded all of Hamels, Pence and Victorino together ...— warbiscuit
- @warbiscuit..."good luck finding a prospect like Singleton even if he traded all of Hamels, Pence and Victorino together"
If that comment wasn't downright laughable I don't know what to call it on these boards without getting booted. Singelton has done NOTHING to prove his worth as a major league offensive player even in the same ballpark as Cole Hamels, let alone the position players you mention.
Once again, why do you continuously comment on and follow the Phillies if you truly hate them and everything they do?— Eilex826 - didn't say Singleton is "as good" as Hamels...indeed I'm on record from 2 years ago of calling Hamels the single best player in Phils organization and predicting that Amaro would lose him...my point is that Amaro -who has never acquired or re-signed a single good young player or prospect EVER (even getting nothing for Lee when Lee was one of the most desirable players in baseball) --would be unable to recoup any top-nothc prospects like the ones he has given away --you need to take a remedial course in reading comprehension — warbiscuit
- No, I do not need a remedial course in reading comprehension, but apparently you do. I was not saying you claimed that Singelton was a better player than Hamels or any of the players you listed, I was simply stating that Singelton is a nothing when it comes to baseball. He's proven absolutely nothing in a major league uniform, so I could care less what Amaro traded away to get major league talent.
You don't like Amaro, fine. You disagree with every single move he's made, and from reading your continuous posts you seem to hate the Phillies and every player on their roster. But since you would make a fine general manager please tell me and every other fan here what you would do, step-by-step, as general manager since the day Amaro took over to keep the Phillies competitive.
Or at least answer my last question in my first post to you...if you havet he balls— Eilex826 - Rube is still wonderimg why nobody was offering him anything of value for Blanton and Ibanez and Polanco --he overpays and then finds nobody wants his overpaid trash... 23 of the 25 players on the roster have zero value --meaning nobody would offer anything of value to take on their salary, except for 2 players that other teams would offer something substantial in a trade without the Phils paying a substantial portion of their salary (Ruiz and Hamels)... there is no other team in baseball that has only 2 players on the 25 man roster worth something and worth their salary, thus showing that Phils are the worse constructed team in baseball— warbiscuit
- Brookover and Gelb are wrong: Pence is not worth more than Hamels, because Pence is worthless in trade value, as anybody else needing an outfielder can also just wait for the free agents to be, and he's not the kind of player like Hamels that a team mey feel is the missing piece to bring them the championship... there is nothing of value that Pence can bring and nobody else even wants him— warbiscuit
- comparing Pence to Ethier is ludicrous...one is good, one isn't...like Rube comparing Blanton to Lee before 2010 and keeping Blanton and giving away Lee for peanuts— warbiscuit
- Yo biscuit. I agree with you on Rube. Be is a boob. And, I can't imaginge a guy I'd less rather be making the deals the Phillies will be making, but the roster has more than 2 guys that other teams would want in a trade. They will get decent prospects for Pence and Victorino. They will get a top prospect (or two) for Hamels. Baseball guys know that Vic isn't as bad as he has looked. and Pence will be an awesome DH (when he doesn't have to worry about playing the OF). Utley, Doc, and Polanco would have value but for injuries. Howard - probably not. Lee - I'm not so sure.— Copper34
- Either you're warbiscuit alternate account, or just about the dumbest, oops, 2nd dumbest person posting here..Can anybody be as clueless as you? Have we been watching the same team over the last 5 years? I suppose you want those Phillies years back when the best we could lure here was Lance Parrish? Must be a sale on paint chips — TexasYankee
- warbiscuit... either shut up or keep it all in one post so we can more easily ignore you.— vinni
- that biscuit is half baked. phils have plenty of guys others would surely take to get hem over the top. biscuit head probably wanted to keep werthless?— sgamble077
- @copper; when I say that Phils have only 2 players that are valuable in a trade, I mean "valuable" in a sense that it can net a prospect like Singleton...obviously, teams would be interested in young players like Worley or Schwimer if the price were right, but if the price were right why would Phils trade them? they're not potential stars and not the kinds of players that change hands when making minimum wage,,, as for the established players making more than minimum wage, they are all very overpriced, other than Ruiz and Hamels, and becuase of their injury status and/or high salary (e.g., howard, Utley, Halladay, Lee, Papelbon, rollins) or simply basic mediocrity (Victorino, Pence, Polanco, etc) they would not bring back anything of value... sure, Phils can get a single A player with no future if Phils were going to pay the traded player's salary, but they'd never get back anybody like a Singleton for anyone on their roster, except possibly for a Ruiz (whom they have no reason to trade) or Hamels— warbiscuit
- What, you think no one around the league has noticed Pence's penchant for swinging the same way on every pitch - all out all the time - and being a sucker for the low outside breaking ball? You are correct in saying he should be moved, but he will definitely not bring as much in return as Cole Hamels, rental or not. And, Victorino should go as well. Time to clean house and start over with some prospects who are ready to jump up or are one year away, and a couple of smart free agent signings, particularly in the outfield where, as you note, there is a bevy of options for next season.— topwonk
