A wild primer
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A wild primer
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
The Phillies inconceivably stand three games back of a postseason berth for a multitude of reasons. The best explanation for how a team, once considered dead by many of its members, is luck and good timing.
Dissect it, and you'll see an old trend.
Their starting pitchers have a 3.01 ERA in their last 29 games. The Phillies have a 20-9 record during that stretch. It was the unit that brought so much success and a celebrated moniker in 2011.
It is what they must ride if this miracle of a comeback is to actually happen.
Tonight, in Houston, a 25-year-old junkballer named Tyler Cloyd takes the ball on short rest. He's the first Phillies pitcher asked to start on short rest this season. Even against a moribund squad like the Astros, there is still danger.
With days off, the Phillies can massage their rotation so that Cloyd makes only two more starts after Thursday, both against middling National League East teams.
9/13 @HOU: Cloyd
9/14 @HOU: Hamels
9/15 @HOU: Kendrick
9/16 @HOU: Halladay
9/17 @NYM: Lee
9/18 @NYM: Cloyd
9/19 @NYM: Hamels
9/20: OFF
9/21 vs. ATL: Kendrick
9/22 vs. ATL: Halladay
9/23 vs. ATL: Lee
9/24: OFF
9/25 vs. WAS: Hamels
9/26 vs. WAS: Kendrick
9/27 vs. WAS: Halladay
9/28 @MIA: Lee
9/29 @MIA: Cloyd
9/30 @MIA: Hamels
10/1 @WAS: Kendrick
10/2 @WAS: Halladay
10/3 @WAS: Lee
10/4: OFF
10/5 WILD CARD: Hamels
It's not a terrible scenario; every pitcher is going on regular rest (or extra rest in some instances). That has Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee pitching on the two final days of the season and Cole Hamels in line for a wild card one-game playoff start on regular rest.
A tiebreaker complicates things. If the Phillies tie another team for the second wild card berth, that tiebreaker is played Thursday. Home field is decided by season series records.
The Phillies had a winning record against three contenders:
vs. ARI: 4-2
vs. LAD: 2-5
vs. MIL: 5-2
vs. PIT: 3-4
vs. STL: 5-2
That means tiebreakers against Arizona, Milwaukee and St. Louis would be played at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, Oct. 4. If the Phillies tie Los Angeles or Pittsburgh, the game is on the road.
Then, should the Phillies win a tiebreaker, the wild card one-game playoff is Friday, Oct. 5, probably in Atlanta. So the travel schedule, theoretically, could look like such:
Oct. 3 at Washington
Oct. 4 at Los Angeles
Oct. 5 at Atlanta
Godspeed.
Such a situation would necessitate starters on short rest to avoid using Cloyd. Hamels would pitch the tiebreaker on three days' rest with Kyle Kendrick starting the one-game playoff on three days' rest.
Of the six contenders (yes, we'll include Arizona), Arizona and St. Louis are tied for the softest remaining schedule by opponents' winning percentage.
STL: .464 -- 9 home (3 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 HOU), 10 road (4 LAD, 3 CHC, 3 HOU)
ARI: .464 -- 12 home (3 SFG, 3 SDP, 3 COL, 3 CHC), 7 road (3 SFG, 4 COL)
PIT: .467 -- 9 home (3 CIN, 3 ATL, 3 MIL), 11 road (4 NYM, 4 CHC, 3 HOU)
PHI: .493 -- 6 home (3 WAS, 3 ATL), 13 road (3 WAS, 3 NYM, 3 MIA, 4 HOU)
MIL: .504 -- 9 home (3 SDP, 3 NYM, 3 HOU), 10 road (4 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 PIT)
LAD: .532 -- 10 home (3 SFG, 4 STL, 3 COL), 9 road (3 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 SDP)
St. Louis heads to Los Angeles for a four-game series starting Thursday. The Phillies will be watching.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Boy this is fun. Go PHILLIES.— Mystified- Chollie justification when he brought in Lindblom to give up an 8th inning grand-slam with a full bullpen available: "When we first got him, we wanted him to be able to pitch in the seventh or eighth inning," Manuel said. "We like his arm and everything. So we definitely have to give him a chance to pitch..."— warbiscuit
- Kind of like your buddy Qualls, maybe next time you can lend him your crystal ball so he will know the outcome beforehand. Oh wait your ball must be defective cause Pena is still batting 191. Oh dopey who is the Phillies closer on planet Idiotbiscuit? Oh that's right Ryan Madson, LOL Tool — DogBiscuitthedope
- hey dogbiscuithedope, how's Ron Paul doing? oh yeah how 'bout that faked moon landing in '69, who really shot J.R --or is that JFK?...what other misstatements, crack theories you got?— warbiscuit
- Hey dopey there are a couple Aumont articles today but you skipped them both? Is that because he is worhless garbage? I know you wanted Qualls and Mike Gonzalez. Oh and your buddy Penna still at 191 and only would have cost 7 mil, i wish you were GM. Tool — DogBiscuitthedope
- This is not being negative, but at some point we're going to need Ryan Howard o start hitting, or at least taking good at bats. He's been an easy out the last few games and others have stepped up, but can't last forever. Go Phils!!— philly thug
- I think this season has taught these guys that they can't look past anyone, because they simply aren't good enough to do so. They must win 6 of these next 7 games, because there is just no way they won't get through the last 2 weeks without dropping a few to the Braves and Nats. However - they won their last 7, no reason they can't win their next 7. If they can come out of the Mets series tied or a game back, they will be in good shape going forward.
It can be done! Go Phils!— kdb150 - so-called dogiscuitthedope aka texasyankee said 6 weeks ago that Blanton and Worley are 2 of the best starters in baseball, that Wigginton is better than Pujols and Fielder, that Schwimer would be a future closer and should be offered a long-term deal, that Millard Filmore trailed only Jimmy Carter as this country's best president, insited that Rick Schu was better than Mike Schmidt, never heard of Ted Williams, that Cal Ripken had only marginal talent and that North Korea's president was a wonderful adminstrator... blah blah blah— warbiscuit
- I'm amused at your attempt at humor; problem is I can provide you a link with every one of your moronic statements.
Pierre worthless garbage,
Aumont worthless garbage,
Halladay most overrated player of the decade,
Carlos Pena should replace Howard,
Loved the Qualls signing
Criticized RAJ for not signng Mike Gonzales and Derek Lee (both out of baseball)
Wanted to re-sign Lidge (lol, one of my favorites)
And my all-time favorite, complained that RAJ couldn't put a solid bench together like Gillick, and said the 2008 WS team won because they had great bench players like Tad Iguchi. He had 7 ab's all year and ZERO in the playoffs. LOL I think I saw you at CBP wearing that Iguchi jersey!! Moronic tool
— DogBiscuitthedope - hey dogboscuithteope how's your buddy Heath Bell whom you wanted Rube to sign doing? how about your brother Dontrelle Willis who was going to be a lefty specialist? how about Ron Paul who was supposed to be president...was that really you in the grassy knoll while faking the Moon landing?— warbiscuit
- hey dogbiscuitthedope: how's Ben Francisco doing whom yousaid was one of most talented outfielders in baseball? how's Millard Filmore doing? oh yeah, how many championships has Ruben Amaro won? why did you commit all those crimes in Finland?— warbiscuit
- hey dogbiscuitthedope: when RonPaul is inaugurated as president on Febr. 30 will he make you Chief Propaganda Officer— warbiscuit
- This is why Houston is a trap unless they Phils realize it and do not let down or Charlie doesn't make the wrong pitching changes.— Koons
- hey dogbiscuithedope if you spend all your efforts by spewing lies, misinformation and insults, do you really think that will persuade the other few million Phillie fans that Chollie Manuel is really a brain-surgeon and that Ruben Amaro really did a tip-top job signing Howard for $125 million, and signing Ibanez, Polanco ,Blanton, Baez, Gload, Schneider, Qualls, Thome, etc and making big trades to rent, e.g., Pence? did you ever read Animal Farm -- did you realize that the pigs were spouting propaganda and that repeating lies and nonsense doesn't make it so? and that's why Ron Paul won't be president— warbiscuit
- 09/03/2012: "@dogbiscuitthedope - I don't really respond to your imbecilic nonsense and point-blank lying fraud, but for the record, and 100th time, as someone who ripped Lidge for past 3 years as much as I've been ripping Paplebum I of course never said Phils should have re-signed Lidge (to the contrary I expressed relief when he signed with Nats so that Rube couldn't make that mistake )and I never loved the Qualls siging... the only thing I said was a no-brainer was to sign Aramis Ramirez which indeed was a no-brainer --and you are a no-brainer -- still upset by the RonPaul defeat you fruitcake?"— warbiscuit
