A wild primer
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A wild primer
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
The Phillies inconceivably stand three games back of a postseason berth for a multitude of reasons. The best explanation for how a team, once considered dead by many of its members, is luck and good timing.
Dissect it, and you'll see an old trend.
Their starting pitchers have a 3.01 ERA in their last 29 games. The Phillies have a 20-9 record during that stretch. It was the unit that brought so much success and a celebrated moniker in 2011.
It is what they must ride if this miracle of a comeback is to actually happen.
Tonight, in Houston, a 25-year-old junkballer named Tyler Cloyd takes the ball on short rest. He's the first Phillies pitcher asked to start on short rest this season. Even against a moribund squad like the Astros, there is still danger.
With days off, the Phillies can massage their rotation so that Cloyd makes only two more starts after Thursday, both against middling National League East teams.
9/13 @HOU: Cloyd
9/14 @HOU: Hamels
9/15 @HOU: Kendrick
9/16 @HOU: Halladay
9/17 @NYM: Lee
9/18 @NYM: Cloyd
9/19 @NYM: Hamels
9/20: OFF
9/21 vs. ATL: Kendrick
9/22 vs. ATL: Halladay
9/23 vs. ATL: Lee
9/24: OFF
9/25 vs. WAS: Hamels
9/26 vs. WAS: Kendrick
9/27 vs. WAS: Halladay
9/28 @MIA: Lee
9/29 @MIA: Cloyd
9/30 @MIA: Hamels
10/1 @WAS: Kendrick
10/2 @WAS: Halladay
10/3 @WAS: Lee
10/4: OFF
10/5 WILD CARD: Hamels
It's not a terrible scenario; every pitcher is going on regular rest (or extra rest in some instances). That has Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee pitching on the two final days of the season and Cole Hamels in line for a wild card one-game playoff start on regular rest.
A tiebreaker complicates things. If the Phillies tie another team for the second wild card berth, that tiebreaker is played Thursday. Home field is decided by season series records.
The Phillies had a winning record against three contenders:
vs. ARI: 4-2
vs. LAD: 2-5
vs. MIL: 5-2
vs. PIT: 3-4
vs. STL: 5-2
That means tiebreakers against Arizona, Milwaukee and St. Louis would be played at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, Oct. 4. If the Phillies tie Los Angeles or Pittsburgh, the game is on the road.
Then, should the Phillies win a tiebreaker, the wild card one-game playoff is Friday, Oct. 5, probably in Atlanta. So the travel schedule, theoretically, could look like such:
Oct. 3 at Washington
Oct. 4 at Los Angeles
Oct. 5 at Atlanta
Godspeed.
Such a situation would necessitate starters on short rest to avoid using Cloyd. Hamels would pitch the tiebreaker on three days' rest with Kyle Kendrick starting the one-game playoff on three days' rest.
Of the six contenders (yes, we'll include Arizona), Arizona and St. Louis are tied for the softest remaining schedule by opponents' winning percentage.
STL: .464 -- 9 home (3 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 HOU), 10 road (4 LAD, 3 CHC, 3 HOU)
ARI: .464 -- 12 home (3 SFG, 3 SDP, 3 COL, 3 CHC), 7 road (3 SFG, 4 COL)
PIT: .467 -- 9 home (3 CIN, 3 ATL, 3 MIL), 11 road (4 NYM, 4 CHC, 3 HOU)
PHI: .493 -- 6 home (3 WAS, 3 ATL), 13 road (3 WAS, 3 NYM, 3 MIA, 4 HOU)
MIL: .504 -- 9 home (3 SDP, 3 NYM, 3 HOU), 10 road (4 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 PIT)
LAD: .532 -- 10 home (3 SFG, 4 STL, 3 COL), 9 road (3 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 SDP)
St. Louis heads to Los Angeles for a four-game series starting Thursday. The Phillies will be watching.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
When they signed Qualls....."good pickup -- see that Mrs. Amaro (i.e. "dogbiscuit") has been relaying my constructive criticisms to her son..."— warbiscuit— DogBiscuitthedope- So Lidge was perfect in 08 and you began to rip him in 09. Typical Toolbiscuit — DogBiscuitthedope
- @s....thanks for your input, I don't disagree....I keep posting that the Phils have to go 21-0 or now 19-0 and they should get in....some of it is meant very tongue in cheek, some in based in reality because you just never know what those 3 teams in front of you are gonna do....if they just go 13-7 you still might not get in....— Mark1npt
- guys, please....all the biquits and dopes are on here just to rile you up....and I have my suspicions they are all one in the same guy anyway....just ignore them,they are not meant to be taken seriously.— Mark1npt
- There is a level of emotion & enthusiasm that I haven't seen from them......in 4 years.— Northcountry
- The Braves have started their September swoon just like last season. Their next series is against the Nats and the Bravos haven't won a series against them all year. Time for the Phillies to just keep winning. I get the feeling that warbiscuit and Dogbiscuitthedope are the same guy. Notice how Dogbiscuitthedope always seems to respond right back to warbiscuit. It is pretty entertaining though!— jck
- Dan Johnson, CHA, would be a good trade target to replace Howard in 2013 He has an elite w/s ratio and good power. We need to get rid of Howard and Mayberry , two guys with .33 ratios that lead the team in strikeouts. Howard can't hit either left or right handed pitchers. Mayberry can't hit right ganders period but he still whiffs a lot against left-handers because he has a terrible batting eye. Ruf doesn't have an elite batting eye but it is respectable at ..63. Let Ruf play left field and Johnson play 1B. We would have big time power, average, and players able to make pitchers pitch to them.— fafink
- The genius that is Idiotbiscuit...
.don't usually wish ill on players -- and still don't --but Phils best cahnce of ever winning anything through 2016 is if Papbum blows out his arm
— warbiscuit
— DogBiscuitthedope - @Mark1npt - didn't see your 6:35 post earlier but it is right on the mark!— jck
- More Dopeybiscuit hits, justifitying Rollins doggin it....
when your manager is a moron, and your bullpen is a mess, and your closer's gonna blow it anyway, why should Rollins run out every meaningless ball? Rube's an imbecile for giving him $33 million. -warbiscuit— DogBiscuitthedope - 7/22: "Rollins pop-ups and .250 batting avg would go unnoticed and without comment if he were batting 8th as he should be --he is a solid defensive shortstop with some pop in his bat and an occasional clutch-hit who should not have been signed to his overpriced deal because the Phils needed offense instead, but now that he has been signed I find it pointless to constantly rip and blame him, instead the blame is on the general manager for not getting an appropriate leadoff hitter and a third baseman and a left-fielder and a bullpen, etc and on the manager for putting him in the wrong spot in the order when he has been a poor leadoff hitter for years...if here were on a conending team batting 7th or 8th in the order like he should be, everybody there would love him"
8/31: "not to exonerate Rollins, but when the manager blows games night after night (and just decided to let everyone go home early by bringing in an awful rookie Rosenberg with an era over 10.00 to pitch to lefties and give up 4 runs in the 10th inning) and when the g.m. decides to go into the season with such pitiful additions and re-signings like Schneider, Qualls, Willis, Wigginton, Thome, etc, why as a player should you bother to bust your b#$% for such a joke organization? when the team was competitive and fighting for something Rolllins showed up and was often clutch, now with this piece of cr$% team he could care less..it starts from the top and when your g.m. and manager are imbeciles and mailing it in then the players start doing the same"— emperorisunclothed - Hey dopey so your reporting to demonstrate that yes infant you are a complete idiot? Are they mailing it in dopey? — DogBiscuitthedope
- why I save my posts --to prevent misquotes from Ron Paul's public relations officer: 9/1: "when your manager is a moron, and your bullpen is a mess, and your closer's gonna blow it anyway, why should Rollins run out every meaningless ball? Rube's an imbecile for giving him $33 million (but a worse imbecile for giving Howard $125 mil., Papbum $50 mil -- and 3 dozen other reasons including destroying the future of the franchise to rent Oswalt and Pence), but stop scapegoating players like Rollins (or Lee or Hamels) instead of the true culprits like amaro, manuel and papbum"
— emperorisunclothed - Another Dopeybiscuit beauty ..
Hamels is too smart to re-sign with this aging sinking ship when he could go get more money and win with teams like Yanks or Redsox --
— warbiscuit— DogBiscuitthedope - Another single from Toolbiscuits greatest hits...
blah blah ...team sucks - Halladay is nothing more than mediocre washed up former star these days and rube had no business giving up the farm for 2 good years of an aging star, hamels is the future and now rube can;t re-sign him ,
— warbiscuit— DogBiscuitthedope
