A wild primer
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A wild primer
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
The Phillies inconceivably stand three games back of a postseason berth for a multitude of reasons. The best explanation for how a team, once considered dead by many of its members, is luck and good timing.
Dissect it, and you'll see an old trend.
Their starting pitchers have a 3.01 ERA in their last 29 games. The Phillies have a 20-9 record during that stretch. It was the unit that brought so much success and a celebrated moniker in 2011.
It is what they must ride if this miracle of a comeback is to actually happen.
Tonight, in Houston, a 25-year-old junkballer named Tyler Cloyd takes the ball on short rest. He's the first Phillies pitcher asked to start on short rest this season. Even against a moribund squad like the Astros, there is still danger.
With days off, the Phillies can massage their rotation so that Cloyd makes only two more starts after Thursday, both against middling National League East teams.
9/13 @HOU: Cloyd
9/14 @HOU: Hamels
9/15 @HOU: Kendrick
9/16 @HOU: Halladay
9/17 @NYM: Lee
9/18 @NYM: Cloyd
9/19 @NYM: Hamels
9/20: OFF
9/21 vs. ATL: Kendrick
9/22 vs. ATL: Halladay
9/23 vs. ATL: Lee
9/24: OFF
9/25 vs. WAS: Hamels
9/26 vs. WAS: Kendrick
9/27 vs. WAS: Halladay
9/28 @MIA: Lee
9/29 @MIA: Cloyd
9/30 @MIA: Hamels
10/1 @WAS: Kendrick
10/2 @WAS: Halladay
10/3 @WAS: Lee
10/4: OFF
10/5 WILD CARD: Hamels
It's not a terrible scenario; every pitcher is going on regular rest (or extra rest in some instances). That has Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee pitching on the two final days of the season and Cole Hamels in line for a wild card one-game playoff start on regular rest.
A tiebreaker complicates things. If the Phillies tie another team for the second wild card berth, that tiebreaker is played Thursday. Home field is decided by season series records.
The Phillies had a winning record against three contenders:
vs. ARI: 4-2
vs. LAD: 2-5
vs. MIL: 5-2
vs. PIT: 3-4
vs. STL: 5-2
That means tiebreakers against Arizona, Milwaukee and St. Louis would be played at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, Oct. 4. If the Phillies tie Los Angeles or Pittsburgh, the game is on the road.
Then, should the Phillies win a tiebreaker, the wild card one-game playoff is Friday, Oct. 5, probably in Atlanta. So the travel schedule, theoretically, could look like such:
Oct. 3 at Washington
Oct. 4 at Los Angeles
Oct. 5 at Atlanta
Godspeed.
Such a situation would necessitate starters on short rest to avoid using Cloyd. Hamels would pitch the tiebreaker on three days' rest with Kyle Kendrick starting the one-game playoff on three days' rest.
Of the six contenders (yes, we'll include Arizona), Arizona and St. Louis are tied for the softest remaining schedule by opponents' winning percentage.
STL: .464 -- 9 home (3 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 HOU), 10 road (4 LAD, 3 CHC, 3 HOU)
ARI: .464 -- 12 home (3 SFG, 3 SDP, 3 COL, 3 CHC), 7 road (3 SFG, 4 COL)
PIT: .467 -- 9 home (3 CIN, 3 ATL, 3 MIL), 11 road (4 NYM, 4 CHC, 3 HOU)
PHI: .493 -- 6 home (3 WAS, 3 ATL), 13 road (3 WAS, 3 NYM, 3 MIA, 4 HOU)
MIL: .504 -- 9 home (3 SDP, 3 NYM, 3 HOU), 10 road (4 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 PIT)
LAD: .532 -- 10 home (3 SFG, 4 STL, 3 COL), 9 road (3 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 SDP)
St. Louis heads to Los Angeles for a four-game series starting Thursday. The Phillies will be watching.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Since many of us gave up and were looking to next year, this is just plain Fun Time.— sillybilly- David Murphy just said 2 days ago that the odds are stacked against the Phils...Thoughts now you mumbling, stumbling moron??... Nice question you asked Charlie at the press conference... "Spider you stuttering ***** ya!!!"— elfman
- So, phillydanny, I supposed you dont watch any pro playoffs? How about March Madness? Grow up.— Master Dreamz
- With the Nats you want to beat them but have them win a lot of other games. 10 of their remaining games are against the Dodgers, Cards, and Brewers. 3 more against the Braves but I don't see the Braves falling so those 3 probably don't matter. We may see just how much the Nats hate us by how soon they take their foot off the gas.— s
What’s that? Ah — Playoffs? Don’t talk about — playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game! Another game.- given Cardinals schedule after Dodgers series (9 straight against Houston and Cubs), Phils would need Cards to lose to Dodgers and then hope that Dodgers lose elsewhere-- Cardinals are still defending champions with great hitters and deep team that really beats up on bad teams like Astros and Cubs ..if Phils can't get close to even with Cardinals after this weekend, Cardinals may get themselves straightened out against the Astros and Cubs, and the Phils chances to gain ground may lapse...— warbiscuit
- Peabrain you posted the same babble 9 times yesterday, do you have an original thought in your head? — DogBiscuitthedope
- Dear God please let them lose, its been such a wonderful summer...haven't had to deal much with boring baseball BS, let it be over— intelliwoman
- this link slightly differs in terms of timing for playoff games
espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/stark_jayson/id/8369571/wild-race-second-wild-card-national-league— cxl72 - They don't deserve to be in the playoffs. This new 2nd wildcard slot is a joke!!— dundermifflin
- Hopefully if they make it to a tiebreaker, they stay pumped and not regress to their we-can-just-show-up-and-win attitude.— ej610
- I do believe the Phils have a winning record against Strasburg this
year. However, the Nats will not activate him just for the Phils.— associate - per other article "Manuel said it was only about a week ago that he realized he had this wild-card thing all wrong. He kept looking at Atlanta... and forgot that the second team in the order was the one the Phillies were really chasing..." ...so that's why he was throwing games away "testing" out whether Lindblom or Rosenberg could be effective in season-crucial situations, and already planning on next year instead of actually trying to win ...if Phils fall just short, as they are likely to do, one can point to at least a half-dozen games that Chollie literally gave aways....sounds like Donovan McNabb not knowing how ties work in football ... When I use words like "morons" and "imbeciles" making decisions affecting Philly teams who don't seem to know basic information, I'm not exaggerating— warbiscuit
