A Prince in Detroit
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
A Prince in Detroit
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Now let's be clear: Evaluating contracts that have yet to start is risky business. Every team in baseball is 0-0 and it's Jan. 24. No one "won" the offseason. And no one knows how Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder will perform over the next decade or so.
Track records say that, yes, Pujols is the greatest active hitter. What about four years from now? Or seven? Or 10? Fielder is 27. Does that mean a longer term is better for a player like him? What about his body holding up for the duration?
So there will be plenty of judgments rendered in the coming days about how The Great First Baseman Shuffle of 2012 transpired. And those will mean exactly nothing.
But now, at least, we can put the contracts along side one another and have a basis for comparison.
A. Pujols: 10 years, $240 million
P. Fielder: 9 years, $214 million
M. Teixeira: 8 years, $180 million (began in 2009)
A. Gonzalez: 7 years, $154 million
R. Howard: 5 years, $125 million
When the Phillies signed Howard in April 2010, Ruben Amaro Jr. set the market, eclipsing the $18 million per season the Yankees gave Teixeira. Once Pujols signed for 10 years at the winter meetings, Amaro scoffed at the idea that he would have been better off waiting it out.
"There would be three of those guys out there looking for 10 years," he said the winter meetings in December.
But once Pujols signed, it looked like Fielder's market had evaporated. ESPN's national baseball writer Buster Olney floated the idea Tuesday morning of Fielder accepting a one-year deal and going back on the market in more favorable conditions next winter. Speculation centered on the Dodgers — a franchise currently in bankruptcy — entering the sweepstakes. A fake Twitter account that misspelled Jon Heyman's name spread a fake report that Washington had signed Fielder.
Then, 112 days into free agency, Scott Boras pulled the absolute greatest magic trick yet. Detroit, seemingly bidding against itself, signed Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million deal.
That's not to say there wouldn't be people who would trade Howard's five-year, $125 million deal for Fielder's nine-year, $214 million pact. (Because there are, and they'd make a rational argument.) Howard's average annual value is the highest among the aforementioned first basemen. But his deal is also the shortest in length.
The Pujols and Fielder deals have/will be viewed favorably because we are talking about superstar sluggers. But the best analyses have come with the caveat that any long-term deal can turn ugly, especially when we are talking about decade-long contracts.
No doubt, five years and $125 million could prove to be an albatross the Phillies have difficulty shaking. Just because other teams signed rich deals doesn't devalue the fact the Phillies will pay Howard $25 million for each of the next five years. It's an expensive deal and Howard's decline in production serves as an ominous harbinger. Then again, without a Gray's Sports Almanac, we cannot talk in absolutes.
Ultimately, the Phillies picked the shortest term to invest their money. We will know in a decade, not today, whether that was wise.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
best comparable for Howard is Carlos Pena who has 1 yr deal worth 7.25 mil... granted that Howard is a bit better but not $117.75 mil and 4 more yrs better...Pena hits for lower batting avg but walks so much more that his on base pctg is about same...from 2007-2010 Pena averaged 36 home runs, 102 RBIs and 93 walks, numbers that the Phils would be overjoyed to get from Howard...moreover Pena is far superior gold glove winning first baseman and is not completely and utterly useless against lefties..in any event even if Howard were deemed worth twice as much as Pena (which he most certainaly is not) that would be $14.5 mil...comparing Howard to Pujols is like comparing Rick Schu to Mike Schmidt— warbiscuit- another way of putting it: had clueless rube not given Howard the extension at beginning of 2010 then even if Phils couldn't have re-signed Howard this winter at much lower cost and even if they couldnt have afforded Pujols or Fielder they clearly could have signed another 25-30 hr 1st baseman like Carlos Pena for under $8 mil and with the $17 million per years savings and $117 million less in long term commitments they could have attempted to sign a hitting third baseman and/or outfielder, signed Hamels to a long term contract and tried to add depth to the bullpen and bench.. instead they are overcommitted by $117 million for a very flawed and often terrible Howard and have holes eveywhere after their starting pitching and once Hamels leaves they will be a pretty mediocre team for all of their salary commitments— warbiscuit
- Howard can't hit lefthanders while Fielder can!— farley
- while Fielder's contract might be 3 or 4 yrs too long, Howard's 5-yr contract is 5 yrs too long— warbiscuit
- This comment has been deleted. — DogBiscuitthedope
- very enlightened response — Bobby Yost
- Sorry, Howard haters; the Phils have a great deal in Howard. You can only look at these contracts prospectively, and from today's vantage point, five years of Howard (and limited, if any, no trade clause), plus a relatively affordable sixth year option, at $125M is actually a value when compared to the other contracts. I am sure RAJ is feeling pretty good right now about his deal with Ryan, and today, he would be thrilled to get the same deal he already has.— Champs_2008
- There's about 0% chance Howard's 6th year option gets picked up at $23 million. He'll be such a shell that they'll pay him the $10 million to not be on the team. He's not close to the same player as those others.
http://i271.photobucket.com/albums/jj127/byosti/chart.png— Bobby Yost - They wouldn't have made the playoffs the year they won the world series if Howard did not completely carry the team (the way Cole carried them in the playoffs). And, he won an NLCS MVP and was there best postseason player up until the Yankees series (when, yes he struck out a ton). Have a little perspective and gratitude for a class act who was instrumental in bringing the only championship this town had seen in over 25 years.— dawkins20d
- dawkins --i actually agree with your first point --Howard WAS great and worth it from 2006 through 2009... now however numbers show he isn;t worth much more than Pena...it doesn't help Phils win ballgames in 2012 through 2016 that Howard was once upon a time a truly elite player from 2006 to 2009— warbiscuit
- Yes, he works hard, but Howard's #s have trended down in the past few years, and now he has a major injury to overcome. I don't expect him back until mid-May at the earliest, like Chase last season, and as with Utley I don't expect "full"productivity. Given the size of the payroll, need to plan for the age of the team (thought they'd start this off-season, but no), Pence's arbitration/contract status, and Hamels' possible contract status or free agency, the Phillies could be overpaying for Howard. It could really take a bite in 2-3 years, when they'll have some major roster issues to deal with. The best part of it is it's "only" 5 years.— ijj
- I'm glad the Phils are not stuck with those 9 and 10 year deals. Pujols and Fielder won't last that long.— simplefreedom
- 4 of Fielder's 9 years will be his 28-31 age seasons. Like Howard, the last 5 years will take him from 32-36 age seasons, except Howard will most likely get a $10 million buyout for his age 37 season to not be on the team.
Even though Pujols and Howard are close to the same age, Pujols has a skill set that will last much longer than Howard. There's a very good chance he will be as good at 41 as Howard is at 36— Bobby Yost - But who is gonna produce more the next 5 years. Not the big piece of s**t I bet.— blaqjaq
- A major factor that is ignored is that Howard is the oldest of the bunch and all the rest are in the AL where they can presumably extend their careers at DH. Despite that DH option, Pujols and Howard are the only ones signed beyond the age of 36. Given all that, for Amaro to think that Howard would have had any chance at a 10 year deal- taking him to age 42!- when none of those younger guys got one, just shows you how clueless he is. He continually bids against himself and spends way more money and gives old players more years than he has to (Lidge, Blanton, Moyer, Ibanez, Polanco, Rollins, Howard, Papelbon).
— jtj06
