A Prince in Detroit
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A Prince in Detroit
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Now let's be clear: Evaluating contracts that have yet to start is risky business. Every team in baseball is 0-0 and it's Jan. 24. No one "won" the offseason. And no one knows how Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder will perform over the next decade or so.
Track records say that, yes, Pujols is the greatest active hitter. What about four years from now? Or seven? Or 10? Fielder is 27. Does that mean a longer term is better for a player like him? What about his body holding up for the duration?
So there will be plenty of judgments rendered in the coming days about how The Great First Baseman Shuffle of 2012 transpired. And those will mean exactly nothing.
But now, at least, we can put the contracts along side one another and have a basis for comparison.
A. Pujols: 10 years, $240 million
P. Fielder: 9 years, $214 million
M. Teixeira: 8 years, $180 million (began in 2009)
A. Gonzalez: 7 years, $154 million
R. Howard: 5 years, $125 million
When the Phillies signed Howard in April 2010, Ruben Amaro Jr. set the market, eclipsing the $18 million per season the Yankees gave Teixeira. Once Pujols signed for 10 years at the winter meetings, Amaro scoffed at the idea that he would have been better off waiting it out.
"There would be three of those guys out there looking for 10 years," he said the winter meetings in December.
But once Pujols signed, it looked like Fielder's market had evaporated. ESPN's national baseball writer Buster Olney floated the idea Tuesday morning of Fielder accepting a one-year deal and going back on the market in more favorable conditions next winter. Speculation centered on the Dodgers — a franchise currently in bankruptcy — entering the sweepstakes. A fake Twitter account that misspelled Jon Heyman's name spread a fake report that Washington had signed Fielder.
Then, 112 days into free agency, Scott Boras pulled the absolute greatest magic trick yet. Detroit, seemingly bidding against itself, signed Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million deal.
That's not to say there wouldn't be people who would trade Howard's five-year, $125 million deal for Fielder's nine-year, $214 million pact. (Because there are, and they'd make a rational argument.) Howard's average annual value is the highest among the aforementioned first basemen. But his deal is also the shortest in length.
The Pujols and Fielder deals have/will be viewed favorably because we are talking about superstar sluggers. But the best analyses have come with the caveat that any long-term deal can turn ugly, especially when we are talking about decade-long contracts.
No doubt, five years and $125 million could prove to be an albatross the Phillies have difficulty shaking. Just because other teams signed rich deals doesn't devalue the fact the Phillies will pay Howard $25 million for each of the next five years. It's an expensive deal and Howard's decline in production serves as an ominous harbinger. Then again, without a Gray's Sports Almanac, we cannot talk in absolutes.
Ultimately, the Phillies picked the shortest term to invest their money. We will know in a decade, not today, whether that was wise.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Once Howard learns to hit a breaking ball consistently, I would consider him a major league player.
LOL to the people claiming he'll be a hall of famer. Maybe in some other sport, but not in baseball.— fmMD- The Phils are the only NL team on this list as well. The other four, like Howard, will be DH's either immediately (in Fielder's case) or eventually, the difference is that Howard will be a DH for a team other than the one he now plays for.— Ckott
- eman -- given that 5 teams now make post-season in each league, and Phils have highest payroll in league and 3 of the top 5 pitchers in Cy Young balloting last year, I too would expect them to make post-season in 2012 ..unfortunately I am not currently very optimistic about Phils prospects in post-season nor whether they make post-season in 2013 and beyond if, as I expect, Hamels leaves next yr...as for long-term contracts I have no issues if the team wants to spend not-my-money on elite players.. I think one player who does deserve and will get a great long term contract is Hamels as he is likely to have the best future of anyone on the Phils, another player who deserved one is Madson, another player who deserved every cent he receieved in free agency and would have been great acquistion would have been someone like Beltre.. my issues with Amaro is not that he spends so much money but that he does so idioticaly rewarding past performance and unable to figure out who is getting better (Hamels, Madson) and who is only getting worse (Howard, Rollins, Ibanez, Polanco, Blanton, etc)... i would have had no problen had Amaro acquired Puols or Fielder with the same deals those players recieved even though those deals are clearly too long and too much money because at least those players right now are indeed elite best-in-baseball type hitters just like I had no issue with the Cliff Lee deal even though it too will probably be too long and for too much money becuase at least right now Lee is indeed an elite pitcher, and after all it's not my money, but I have issues wiht a g.m. giving long term deals to a lot of not-elite players in decline and then the team being hamstrung from taking the necessary steps to actually build a 25-man roster capable of actually winning more than a post-season berth...— warbiscuit
- Albert Pujols is a once in a lifetime player. His numbers over his career are mind boggling. He is already an automatic 1st ballot hall of famer. At 32 years of age and OUT of the steroid era (hopefully), 10 years is crazy. By the age of 37, the numbers naturally decline w/o the un natural PED's. Willie Stargel's numbers at 39 were good, but that was it. Look at the performance of sluggers in the late 30's early 40's prior to the steroid era. Not worth the $24 million to be earned by Albert. Prince Fielder could have only received a 9 year deal in the AL due to having the DH at their disposal. Prince Fielder is in his prime already. His body type (sorry folks, sports is about body and being physically fit) doesn't bode well for performance into his mid/late 30's. He won't get thinner and reality is that his weight eventually will take its toll on his legs and lack of core. Howard's production has decreased over the past three years, however, 5 years isn't 9/10. If Howard does continue to produce at 38/120, he will be worth the price, especially since its a 5 year gamble, not a 9/10 year gamble. RAJ set the bar, but also got 5 years instead of 9/10. Let the man do his job. He seems to be doing it fine.— drhoffman
- Albert Pujols is a once in a lifetime player. His numbers over his career are mind boggling. He is already an automatic 1st ballot hall of famer. At 32 years of age and OUT of the steroid era (hopefully), 10 years is crazy. By the age of 37, the numbers naturally decline w/o the un natural PED's. Willie Stargel's numbers at 39 were good, but that was it. Look at the performance of sluggers in the late 30's early 40's prior to the steroid era. Not worth the $24 million to be earned by Albert. Prince Fielder could have only received a 9 year deal in the AL due to having the DH at their disposal. Prince Fielder is in his prime already. His body type (sorry folks, sports is about body and being physically fit) doesn't bode well for performance into his mid/late 30's. He won't get thinner and reality is that his weight eventually will take its toll on his legs and lack of core. Howard's production has decreased over the past three years, however, 5 years isn't 9/10. If Howard does continue to produce at 38/120, he will be worth the price, especially since its a 5 year gamble, not a 9/10 year gamble. RAJ set the bar, but also got 5 years instead of 9/10. Let the man do his job. He seems to be doing it fine.— drhoffman
- Warbiscuit, some of your thinking I can understand but you are just way under cutting Howard's value. I'm certainly glad to have Howard over Prince any day of the week. For what Prince got the Phils got a steal regardless of the fact that Prince is younger. His body might as well be 35.— Phillydave
- 2011:
Player A: .253/.346/.488
Player B: .299/.415/.566— Bobby Yost - drhoffman -- if Howard can put up 38/120 numbers over next 5 yrs then Amaro will indeed have done just "fine"... unfortunately there is nothing that Howard has done over past 2 full seasons that would lead anyone to reasobanly believe that Howard will put up such lofty numbers ..as for Pujols and Fielder one is a pure great hitter who should be great until his late 30s and the other is first entering his prime... yes everyone in baseball will admit their contracts are too long and expensive but at least they are truly elite great hitters right now ...Howard by contrast is actualy making more than them per season over a not-insignificant 5 years and was not even top 35 in OPS last year ...— warbiscuit
- This comment has been deleted. — DogBiscuitthedope
- If knocking in 100 runs from the 4 hole meant anything Rico Brogna would be on the Phillies' wall of fame. — jtj06
- and to re-state, I think Howard is better than Pena ...but not 3 times better.. and not anywhere in the same league as the top 5 or 6 1st basemen, so if Pena makes $7.25 mil. and Pujols, Fielder and Gonzales have long term deals for $22-24 mil., then Howard --were he to have been a free agent this winter, might have tried for something like $12 to 15 mil for 3 to 5 years...— warbiscuit
- Must be a big sale on paint chips, biggest bunch of stupid, insanely dumb comments ever. Those here who bash Howard know squat, no response necessary for those XBox fools. Best team we ever had, hands down, and we have all this crying, pathetic. Ryan Howard is a class act, true professional, and if you've ever met him, he's the nicest guy in the world. I personally saw over a thousand games at the Vet when the best free agent we could hope for was Lance Parrish and a 500 record. I'm proud Howard is a Phillie, and proud Amaro is the Man.Some of these wannabe fans just don't know how good it is to be a Phillies fan right now.— TexasYankee
- Everyone on here needs to quit their whining. I like to check on other newspapers just to see if their fans complain as much as ours do (Trust me, they don't!). Everyone's hatred for Howard is simply over his contract. Without him, we have ZERO World Championships during this time. The people who are killing Ryan Howard now will be the ones giving him a standing "O" in front of their TV in 2028 when they bring back our 2008 World Champs for a 20 year reunion. They will be telling their kids about how this guy carried us down the stretch to make the playoffs in the final week. Those same people are the ones who crushed Schmidt, AI, McNabb, Lindros, etc in the past. And what did all of those guys receive when they came back to OUR city?.............. Standing "O"— BammBamm
- By that logic we should suit up Steve Carlton and Mike Schmidt. — jtj06
- Howard's contract is a total disaster. End of story.— Repubrebirth
