A Prince in Detroit
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A Prince in Detroit
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Now let's be clear: Evaluating contracts that have yet to start is risky business. Every team in baseball is 0-0 and it's Jan. 24. No one "won" the offseason. And no one knows how Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder will perform over the next decade or so.
Track records say that, yes, Pujols is the greatest active hitter. What about four years from now? Or seven? Or 10? Fielder is 27. Does that mean a longer term is better for a player like him? What about his body holding up for the duration?
So there will be plenty of judgments rendered in the coming days about how The Great First Baseman Shuffle of 2012 transpired. And those will mean exactly nothing.
But now, at least, we can put the contracts along side one another and have a basis for comparison.
A. Pujols: 10 years, $240 million
P. Fielder: 9 years, $214 million
M. Teixeira: 8 years, $180 million (began in 2009)
A. Gonzalez: 7 years, $154 million
R. Howard: 5 years, $125 million
When the Phillies signed Howard in April 2010, Ruben Amaro Jr. set the market, eclipsing the $18 million per season the Yankees gave Teixeira. Once Pujols signed for 10 years at the winter meetings, Amaro scoffed at the idea that he would have been better off waiting it out.
"There would be three of those guys out there looking for 10 years," he said the winter meetings in December.
But once Pujols signed, it looked like Fielder's market had evaporated. ESPN's national baseball writer Buster Olney floated the idea Tuesday morning of Fielder accepting a one-year deal and going back on the market in more favorable conditions next winter. Speculation centered on the Dodgers — a franchise currently in bankruptcy — entering the sweepstakes. A fake Twitter account that misspelled Jon Heyman's name spread a fake report that Washington had signed Fielder.
Then, 112 days into free agency, Scott Boras pulled the absolute greatest magic trick yet. Detroit, seemingly bidding against itself, signed Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million deal.
That's not to say there wouldn't be people who would trade Howard's five-year, $125 million deal for Fielder's nine-year, $214 million pact. (Because there are, and they'd make a rational argument.) Howard's average annual value is the highest among the aforementioned first basemen. But his deal is also the shortest in length.
The Pujols and Fielder deals have/will be viewed favorably because we are talking about superstar sluggers. But the best analyses have come with the caveat that any long-term deal can turn ugly, especially when we are talking about decade-long contracts.
No doubt, five years and $125 million could prove to be an albatross the Phillies have difficulty shaking. Just because other teams signed rich deals doesn't devalue the fact the Phillies will pay Howard $25 million for each of the next five years. It's an expensive deal and Howard's decline in production serves as an ominous harbinger. Then again, without a Gray's Sports Almanac, we cannot talk in absolutes.
Ultimately, the Phillies picked the shortest term to invest their money. We will know in a decade, not today, whether that was wise.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Did someone just write that Howard will MAYBE give us 15 home runs this year???
BWAHAHAHA!!! Dude, please, turn off the computer before you injure yourself. You sheep are like the towns people with the torches and pitchforks. One little comment and you let it grow and grow until you are convinced that Howard will MAYBE give us 15 home runs, or that a .198 hitter is just as good.
Please people, take a deep breath and come back to reality.
Maybe 15 homers...classic. Easily the stupidest comment ever.
Oh wait...I just read that the same guy said he'll never hit 30 homers in a single season. BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! Dude, you're killing me.
I may have jumped the gun on that stupidest comment ever award.— smfree31- smfree yes it's really hilarious that Phils are paying a guy $125 mil that based on his rapid decline makes some wonder whether he'll ever hit 30 hrs in a season (I'd bet that he will hit that much perhaps in a rebound yr in 2013) and who can now be compared to a guy like Pena who makes one third of his salary yet actually had a HIGHER on base pctge than MR. Howard last yr- hahaha --joke's on the joker g.m. who wasted $125 million and now can't afford a legitimate cleanup hitter as part of a $170 mil/yr budget --haha— warbiscuit
- http://s271.photobucket.com/albums/jj127/byosti/?action=view¤t=chart1.png
His baserunning has killed his value last two years, not good in the field, his isolated slugging has dropped from .346, .316, .292, .292, .229, .235.
The better question is what evidence isn't there of Howard's decline.— Bobby Yost - Mr. Clutch, prince fielder, hit .200 in the NLCS and he was healthy.— palmyra21
- and for those keeping track, Cliff Lee is 0-3 with a 6 ERA in his last 3 post season starts. A. Gonzalez choked in Boston late in the season and couldn't get the Red Sox into the playoffs. There's only one Pujols.— palmyra21
- At this rate, Prince is going to have his own ZIP code. I hope the Nats sign him to a big fat 10 year contract. He'll do well the first year or two...then it's knee surgery every other year.— Sackbutt
- I can't believe I'm saying this but bisquit, I agree with you.....the ONLY good thing about Howard's contract is, it's ONLY for 5 years...the 9-10 year deals given to the other guys have to be taken in the context that they are AL deals, which means after year 4-5-6 these players will be full time DHs, nothing more. After 5 more years in the NL Howard may be the same. I agree, it's hard to watch 175-200 Ks when the other guys don't come near that and hit LH pitching better....all those who point to Howards most HRs and RBI over the last 6 years, neglect to mention the number are down every year and he will be passed this year by another player, or two who are still performing at a high level.— Mark1npt
- I would have taken Fielder if I had the choice but not for 9 years.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- Does anyone know if the Tigers have an opt-clause in Fielder's contract? I can't imagine signing someone with his body-type for 9 years unless you have some options or are carrying mucho insurance on him— Polecat_39
- I hope Howard does not come back til the All-Star break. That will allow the great white hope Chase Utley (who barely avg a 100 games a year) to put the team on his back and prove Howard is not worth the money. Lets go Howard haters!!!— WeRunPhillydotCOM
- Howard's had a down season due to injury. And it's going to be a slow start to this season. Can't really judge a guy of Howard's ilk in just one off season riddled with injury. Let it play out over the lenth of the contract or at least the next 3 seasons. Someone compared him to Pena??? Seriously??? Ryan's at least a top 5 or 6 1 baseman in the league.— Phillydave
- One of the big criticisms of the Phillies extending Howard for 7 years in 2010 was that a big guy like Howard would have a hard time staying healthy into his mid-thirties. You can't just pretend that injuries are random and unforeseen bad luck when you sign injury prone players. — jtj06
- dogbiscuitdope--your attempt at rebutting me by saying that Howard is better than Schmidt shows such incredible ignorance that you're frankly embarassing yourself --Schmidt is the greatest 3rd baseman in history, was the league leader in hrs 8 times (more than anyone than Ruth), was a first ballot HoFer, the best player in baseball for the period of 1975 through 1987, and in most lists one of the 25 best players of all time....Howard is not one of the top 50 players today and not one of the top 500 players on any list --— warbiscuit
- It's the addiction to 1-year deals I guess. Guys like Warbiscuit would second-guess multi-year deals with one of the other 31 team's one-year deals. "Why sign Howard for 5 years when in this one category Carlos Mr. .198 Pena Was Almost As Good" for 1 year? Or, maybe we should have somehow signed Madson for the Reds' deal at 1 year instead of Papelbon at 4 years. Or Alex Gonzalez at 1 year instead of Rollins at 3. Or someone else last year instead of Cliff Lee at 5 years. And on and on. It's ridiculous. If you want to have a team, you make multi-year deals and live with them, especially with home-grown guys like Rollins, Howard, Utley and hopefully Hamels and Victorino. Sure, idiot posters can say, "But the Mariners got Casper Wells for $850,000," probably after the fact. That gets us nowhere. We are a playoff team and, Warbiscuit, right now, I'd bet you $100 against your incessant negativism that we make the playoffs again next year. Are we on?— eman
