A Prince in Detroit
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
A Prince in Detroit
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Now let's be clear: Evaluating contracts that have yet to start is risky business. Every team in baseball is 0-0 and it's Jan. 24. No one "won" the offseason. And no one knows how Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder will perform over the next decade or so.
Track records say that, yes, Pujols is the greatest active hitter. What about four years from now? Or seven? Or 10? Fielder is 27. Does that mean a longer term is better for a player like him? What about his body holding up for the duration?
So there will be plenty of judgments rendered in the coming days about how The Great First Baseman Shuffle of 2012 transpired. And those will mean exactly nothing.
But now, at least, we can put the contracts along side one another and have a basis for comparison.
A. Pujols: 10 years, $240 million
P. Fielder: 9 years, $214 million
M. Teixeira: 8 years, $180 million (began in 2009)
A. Gonzalez: 7 years, $154 million
R. Howard: 5 years, $125 million
When the Phillies signed Howard in April 2010, Ruben Amaro Jr. set the market, eclipsing the $18 million per season the Yankees gave Teixeira. Once Pujols signed for 10 years at the winter meetings, Amaro scoffed at the idea that he would have been better off waiting it out.
"There would be three of those guys out there looking for 10 years," he said the winter meetings in December.
But once Pujols signed, it looked like Fielder's market had evaporated. ESPN's national baseball writer Buster Olney floated the idea Tuesday morning of Fielder accepting a one-year deal and going back on the market in more favorable conditions next winter. Speculation centered on the Dodgers — a franchise currently in bankruptcy — entering the sweepstakes. A fake Twitter account that misspelled Jon Heyman's name spread a fake report that Washington had signed Fielder.
Then, 112 days into free agency, Scott Boras pulled the absolute greatest magic trick yet. Detroit, seemingly bidding against itself, signed Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million deal.
That's not to say there wouldn't be people who would trade Howard's five-year, $125 million deal for Fielder's nine-year, $214 million pact. (Because there are, and they'd make a rational argument.) Howard's average annual value is the highest among the aforementioned first basemen. But his deal is also the shortest in length.
The Pujols and Fielder deals have/will be viewed favorably because we are talking about superstar sluggers. But the best analyses have come with the caveat that any long-term deal can turn ugly, especially when we are talking about decade-long contracts.
No doubt, five years and $125 million could prove to be an albatross the Phillies have difficulty shaking. Just because other teams signed rich deals doesn't devalue the fact the Phillies will pay Howard $25 million for each of the next five years. It's an expensive deal and Howard's decline in production serves as an ominous harbinger. Then again, without a Gray's Sports Almanac, we cannot talk in absolutes.
Ultimately, the Phillies picked the shortest term to invest their money. We will know in a decade, not today, whether that was wise.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
- This comment has been deleted.
— DogBiscuitthedope - Old players get injured. Who could foresee these guys getting injured? The premise of my post is that Amaro bids against himself. If you disagree, give me some comparisons in terms of age and accomplishments to make your point. Who else was going to give Papelbon a similar contract? Howard? Moyer? Ibanez? Blanton? Rollins? Polanco? Lidge? What similar players got contracts like they did? I can't find any. — jtj06
- I agree with warbiscuit in terms of Howard comparisons. He is currently and for the foreseeable future much closer to Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena, both of whom are much cheaper.— jtj06
- This comment has been deleted. — DogBiscuitthedope
- Howard 2011 wRC+ 123(meaning he was 23% better than league average)
Pena 2011 wRC+ 119.
But Pena is also not a complete albatross on the bases like Howard— Bobby Yost - Carlos Pena? Two years ago, Pena didn't even break the Mendoza line (.200). He hit .198 in 2010 and the Rays -- the financially smartest team in the game -- couldn't wait to buy him a ticket out of town. Last year, the amazing Pena rebounded for a resounding .225 and 80 RBI. Talk about watching a lot of painful at bats!
All of the guys Gelb wrote about are overpaid. Would Ruben secretly admit to overpaying Howard now -- yes. When the deal was done? No. But I'd rather have a bad 5-year deal than a bad 9- or 10-year deal and I don't see Pujols, Fielder, Texeira or even Gonzalez living up to their deals. The Giants and Cardinals won the past two series and neither of them had crazy money tied up like this, except for a starting pitcher here or there.
— eman - This choke artist, the product of roids isn't worth the ink used to sign his contract.— Justaschmuck
- If you ask me, Howard earns his money more than Utley— SilliBilli
- The problem is Howard is hurt and will produce very little this year. Maybe 15 HRs? He'll still give us 100 Ks in 300 ABs. He's also on the downside and won't hit over 30 Hrs again. He'll still give us 175Ks each year even if he can't hit. So basically we are paying to watch him whiff.— 4thand10
- yes eman you've proved my point -- as mediocre as Pena was last yr he HAD A HIGHER on base pctge than Howard .357 > .346 (21st in league vs. 34th in league)..in OPS Howard was 18th, Pena 23rd..in hrs, Howard had 33 vs 28 for Pena... as I said, Howard is a bit better, NOT $17.7 mil per yr and $117 million total better... for the difference I'd much rather have signed Hamels to a long-term deal an/or added a third baseman who can hit— warbiscuit
- Hey idiots, since he has been in the majors...nobody...NOBODY has more home runs and RBIs than Howard. NOBODY. And it's not even close.
What the hell is wrong with you losers? Yes, we really need to get rid of a guy like that.
If we had signed Pujols or Fielder trust me...you would all have found reasons as to why it would have been a horrible move. It's just in your nature.
This is the best first baseman we have ever had. Period. But then again we had the best 3rd baseman ever and you idiots ripped him all the time, too.
My God, can't this city just appreciate a good player for who he is?— smfree31 - smfree -it's really wonderful that Howard hit 58 hrs in 2006 and was having 140 rbi+ seasons until 2009...um unfortunately he now hits maybe 30 hrs a season and has lower on base pctge than Pena .. as a power hitter his OPS is 36th in mlb but he strikes out in excess of 170 times a season ..how does regurgitating his wonderful numbers from 2006 through 2009 help win games from 2012 through 2016?— warbiscuit
- This comment has been deleted. — DogBiscuitthedope
- Schmidt was an elite fielder at a position where offense was much more scarce in a run environment that was lower of his career than during Howard's career. — Bobby Yost
- Schmidt got on base alot and improved continually throughout his career. His two highest full season batting averages were at ages 36 & 37. — jtj06
