A Prince in Detroit
Now let's be clear: Evaluating contracts that have yet to start is risky business. Every team in baseball is 0-0 and it's Jan. 24. No one "won" the offseason. And no one knows how Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder will perform over the next decade or so.
A Prince in Detroit
Matt Gelb, Inquirer Staff Writer
Now let's be clear: Evaluating contracts that have yet to start is risky business. Every team in baseball is 0-0 and it's Jan. 24. No one "won" the offseason. And no one knows how Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder will perform over the next decade or so.
Track records say that, yes, Pujols is the greatest active hitter. What about four years from now? Or seven? Or 10? Fielder is 27. Does that mean a longer term is better for a player like him? What about his body holding up for the duration?
So there will be plenty of judgments rendered in the coming days about how The Great First Baseman Shuffle of 2012 transpired. And those will mean exactly nothing.
But now, at least, we can put the contracts along side one another and have a basis for comparison.
A. Pujols: 10 years, $240 million
P. Fielder: 9 years, $214 million
M. Teixeira: 8 years, $180 million (began in 2009)
A. Gonzalez: 7 years, $154 million
R. Howard: 5 years, $125 million
When the Phillies signed Howard in April 2010, Ruben Amaro Jr. set the market, eclipsing the $18 million per season the Yankees gave Teixeira. Once Pujols signed for 10 years at the winter meetings, Amaro scoffed at the idea that he would have been better off waiting it out.
"There would be three of those guys out there looking for 10 years," he said the winter meetings in December.
But once Pujols signed, it looked like Fielder's market had evaporated. ESPN's national baseball writer Buster Olney floated the idea Tuesday morning of Fielder accepting a one-year deal and going back on the market in more favorable conditions next winter. Speculation centered on the Dodgers — a franchise currently in bankruptcy — entering the sweepstakes. A fake Twitter account that misspelled Jon Heyman's name spread a fake report that Washington had signed Fielder.
Then, 112 days into free agency, Scott Boras pulled the absolute greatest magic trick yet. Detroit, seemingly bidding against itself, signed Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million deal.
That's not to say there wouldn't be people who would trade Howard's five-year, $125 million deal for Fielder's nine-year, $214 million pact. (Because there are, and they'd make a rational argument.) Howard's average annual value is the highest among the aforementioned first basemen. But his deal is also the shortest in length.
The Pujols and Fielder deals have/will be viewed favorably because we are talking about superstar sluggers. But the best analyses have come with the caveat that any long-term deal can turn ugly, especially when we are talking about decade-long contracts.
No doubt, five years and $125 million could prove to be an albatross the Phillies have difficulty shaking. Just because other teams signed rich deals doesn't devalue the fact the Phillies will pay Howard $25 million for each of the next five years. It's an expensive deal and Howard's decline in production serves as an ominous harbinger. Then again, without a Gray's Sports Almanac, we cannot talk in absolutes.
Ultimately, the Phillies picked the shortest term to invest their money. We will know in a decade, not today, whether that was wise.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Don't even put, Choker ""World Series Strike Out Record Holder"" Howard in ther same class as Pujols and Fielder . 5 years and $125 Million was way to much to pay Howard . They should have left him walk and let the Yankees sign him and pick up a . 275 hitting player that least makes contact with the ball and don't strike out all the time with men on base or when they need bat contact to advance the runner to keep the inning going .— zogger- if he hadnt injured his ankle on the last out of the season, we might have been able to trade him to strengthen some of the other infield positions and then make a run at pujols or fielder... i like the ryan howard that was part of an offensive juggernaut 2007-2009.. i dont like the ryan howard that refuses to change his game by becoming more disciplined at the plate. we dont have werth anymore and utley and rollins are shadows of what they used to be. this team cant afford howard to continue as a free-swinging slugger. they need howard to be more like pujols. howard doesnt want to do it. — zwarte piet
- Adrian Gonzalez seems like the best bargin - not sure how the Phils could have swung that though considering he went to Boston in a trade— Hunter S. T
- I'll take Howard's contract over Bryzgalov's ANYtime. Sorry...had to vent my Flyers frustration on a Phillie's article.— dri_as_a_bone
- What has Fielder done in his career that makes you make that statement? How many WS championships does he have? You Howard hating idiots just sound so stupid with your comments. Can't there be an IQ test that you have to pass in order to comment on Philly.com? Oh, wait, then there wouldn't be any posts.— mjc1
- Including yours. — kavorca
- can we stop having so little respect for the player that leads in homeruns and rbi's for the least 6 years. howard is a player and works hard at getting better. his swing can get alittle big at times and lately in the playoffs but i'm having faith that through hard work ryan will be worth the contract. they can't all be pujols.
- least 6 years interesting slip, oops.
- No disrespect to Howard, but I think i'd prefer the other 4 guys, but not necessarily w/ their respective contracts. In the end, yea, Howard's contract isn't so bad after all. I'm a big RAJ guy, so this does not surprise me.— AndyReidsMustache
- Somehow Howard needs to learn to at least get the bat on the ball against good pitchers and in clutch situations. It is very bad when you groan when your $125 Million first baseman comes up in a big spot in the playoffs.— Vituperator
Comment removed.- You are too stupid for words. — mike l
- The Angels better hope that Biff steals the DeLorean and goes back to 2010 to prevent the signing of Pujols to that awful contract. A-Rod contract part deux. $240 Jiggawatts— jimmydugan
- I am glad we were not in the position of getting Albert or Prince for such a long contract. Up until 2 years ago Howard was the most durable guy out there. Albert is already breaking down and anyone who thinks Fielder will continue to stay on the field healthy for the last 4 or 5 years are imo not thinking clearly. Both those guys belong in the Al where they can dh for many years. High water. You got it right:)— pattymac3
- Pujols' skillset will remain at a high level for a longer period of time than Howard's. While Prince weight will be an issue, he's still five years younger and in his prime and appears to have an offensive skill set that will last longer as well. — Bobby Yost
