IS LEARNING THE PRINCETON OFFENSE
Everyone knows that Cole Hamels did not pitch well last night. But there appears to be a growing debate on whether anything is "wrong" with Hamels. Recently, Baseball Prospectus's Matt Swartz presented a thorough and interesting study of Hamels' performance, and concluded that the pitcher's regular season was not significantly different from 2008. He cited many stats like BABIP that are more useful than wins and earned run average. He made many valid points, as BP writers usually do, and I learned a lot while reading it. And he was right: In some ways, Hamels' issues have been overstated.
Yesterday morning, smart baseball man Rob Neyer made an argument similar to Swartz's, but used hyperbole to misrepresent an Inquirer story. He cited Jim Salisbury's report that Hamels planned to learn a new pitch next year, then mocked the idea that something is wrong with Hamels as "simply preposterous."
Neyer went on to present a tired caricature--the equivalent of labeling bloggers as losers in their mothers' basement--of baseball writers as having a "sick, 20th century obsession with wins and losses and ERA."
I think you readers would agree that no Philly sportswriter has argued this year that wins and ERA represent what has been wrong with Hamels. Salisbury cited wins and ERA, but only as a small part of a nuanced argument. So let's cast aside petty stereotypes--isn't it so, like, 2004 to say that newspaper writers don't care about statistical analysis?--and look at the facts. Here is a partial list of what was wrong with Hamels in 2009:
--He had a sore elbow in March, April and May. I know that because he told me later in the summer.
--He did not begin training until later than usual, because he took on too many post-World Series commitments.
--Even on days when his pitches were working, he responded poorly to adverse circumstances, and allowed bad innings to snowball. He admits this, and his manager, GM and coach agree. It is also obvious from watching his body language.
--Though his velocity was as good as last year, he has to overthrow to get his fastball in the low-90s. That sometimes resulted in poor location and home runs allowed.
--The lack of a quality third pitch allowed hitters to guess what was coming. Take A-Rod last night: Hamels started him off with a change-up for strike one, so the hitter figured he would see a fastball within the next few pitches. When one arrived on the next pitch, A-Rod was ready, and clocked it into the Jeffrey Maier camera.
It is factually incorrect to say that nothing was wrong with Hamels this year; at the very least, his elbow hurt. I'm not writing this to rip the pitcher, or pile on after a bad night--I actually admire his self-awareness and find his struggle for maturity fascinating and his honesty refreshing. I just felt a responsibility to correct the record on a point important to the Phillies, and hopefully to restore a more reasonable tone to the debate.
The flu-like illness that afflicted several Phillies over the past few days appears to be subsiding, and the team was fortunate that Friday was a scheduled day off. That allowed closer Brad Lidge and pinch-hitter Greg Dobbs to recover in time for Game 3.
General manger Ruben Amaro Jr. said Friday that “maybe one or two players” in addition to Dobbs were ill and undergoing tests, and that he did not know how Dobbs was progressing. Both Lidge and Dobbs said today that were feeling better and were available to play without restrictions.
“(Friday) was a good day for me to stay away,” Lidge said. On Friday, he spent time in the trainers room, but was otherwise absent from the team’s workout and media availability.
Asked if Lidge was feeling better today and was available without restrictions, pitching coach Rich Dubee said: “He’s fine. It’s the World Series, isn’t it?”
Dobbs said he could play the field if needed, though manager Charlie Manuel expressed reluctance to use Dobbs as anything other than a pinch-hitter.
Dobbs said that his temperature reached about 102 degrees, but has gone down. “They put me on antibiotics immediately, and that helped,” he said. “It was no fun at all.”
Sitting in rocking chairs on the back porch, sipping beers, the three friends would talk about it: What if we could all play in the World Series someday?
In the Oakland home they rented together as young teammates on the Athletics, Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher and Chad Gaudin allowed their late-night conversations to wander through many topics. But they often returned to the career goal that Blanton fulfilled last October, and the other two are realizing this month as members of the New York Yankees.
Pitchers Rich Harden and Huston Street also spent time living in the Oakland home, but the majority of back-yard bull sessions involved Blanton, Gaudin and Swisher. When Charlie Manuel announced today that Blanton would start Sunday’s Game 4, instead of Cliff Lee on short rest, he set up a possible matchup between close friends. If Yankees manager Joe Girardi chooses not to start CC Sabathia on three days rest Sunday, he will hand the assignment to Gaudin.
“It’s pretty cool, when you think about it,” Blanton said. “To be young together, and talk about how maybe someday we would be in a World Series, and now here we are.”
Manuel passed on the chance to start Lee three times in the series, and essentially named Cole Hamels the potential Game 7 starter. "He hasn't pitched on three days rest," Manuel said of Lee. "I also like him in Game 5 because we've got an off day Tuesday. If it goes seven games or something, that would be on his bullpen day and he might be able to pitch or whatever ... I don't think he's ready for it on three days' rest. That's really pushing him because he's never done it before.”
Manuel did not seriously consider J.A. Happ for the start, because he wanted the lefthander the available from the bullpen.
That combination of factors resulted in Blanton receiving a second the second World Series start of his career. Though he lasted six innings against the Tampa Bay Rays in a Game 4 win last year, and bashed an unlikely home run, Blanton did not have the pleasure of competing against friends.
All three former roommates are enjoying this moment, the realization of a dream they shared in Oakland, and before.
“Joe was my first buddy in pro ball,” said Swisher, traded from the A’s to the Chicago White Sox last year, and from Chicago to New York before this season. “We played in double-A together. Now he’s got a ring and I don’t have one yet.”
Blanton’s life has changed the most. In addition to winning the World Series, Blanton is the only one of the three with a family. He and wife LeeAndra welcomed their first child, daughter Adalia, earlier this season.
“He’s still the same guy,” said the Louisiana-born Gaudin of Blanton, a Kentuckian. “That’s probably why we’ve always gotten along so well. Joe is a country boy who likes country music.”
Gaudin’s career has taken him to the Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres and Yankees since he left Oakland. Though Blanton and Swisher have drifted from one another, the Phils pitcher and Gaudin remained close. Their contacts is mostly limited to brief text messages, and looking for one another’s name on the ESPN crawl. They meet up when they can--Gaudin was still a Padre when the Phils traveled to San Diego this June, and Blanton stayed at his house during that series.
Whether or not they face one another Sunday, each has enjoyed the other’s success. “You talk about something like that when you’re young, but you don’t know if it will happen,” Blanton said. “It’s definitely a cool thing.”
***
Greg Dobbs’ locker at Citizens Bank Park was decorated with caution tape today, covered with cardboard, and adorned with a handwritten sign that read:
“Greg Dobbs update—Thomas Jefferson Hospital, room 906. Visiting for family and friends from 6-8 p.m. Be advised to wear a mask.”
That joke injected levity into a situation that was surely not enjoyable for Dobbs. The pinch-hitting specialist left the team before Game 2 with the flu, and was not at the workout today.
“I don’t know how he’s doing,” said general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. “I think he’s feeling better, I don’t know how much better.”
Amaro said that he was not yet considering replacing Dobbs on the roster, but might if Dobbs misses another game. He also said that “maybe just one or two” players felt under the weather and “were getting checked out.”
Tyler Walker, who is not on the roster, was ill for several days. He rejoined the team today.
***
Blanton threw about 50 pitches in a bullpen session today, after Manuel informed him he would start.
After Blanton, the likely World Series rotation would be: Lee in Game 5, Pedro Martinez in Game 6, and Cole Hamels in Game 7, with Lee available in the bullpen on short rest.
Hello from another workout day, where Charlie Manuel announced minutes ago that Joe Blanton will start Game 4 for the Phils. He said that since Cliff Lee had never pitched on short rest, he did nto feel comfortable asking him to do so during the World Series.
More to come, gotta head down the field.
Greg Dobbs might have earned a starting assignment as the designated hitter in Game 2 of the World Series, but an illness prevented him from even joining his teammates at the ballpark.
Dobbs has “the flu,” according to manager Charlie Manuel.
Any mention of the flu this year conjures fears of the H1N1 influenza, commonly known as the “swine flu.” The Phillies were not yet in a position to rule out that diagnosis, said general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.--though they didn't know enough to be overly concerned, either.
Amaro told the Inquirer that Dobbs had left the team and returned to Philadelphia, and was undergoing tests to determine the exact nature of his illness.
“We sent him home because we didn’t want him contaminating the other guys,” Amaro said. “It got to the point where he was too sick to function.”
The team did not yet know when Dobbs would be available again, and Manuel said he was not yet considering replacing him on the roster.
Good evening from Game 1, staged in an overpriced, taxpayer-thieving, Bronx parkland-destroying, Disney-fied facsimile of the real Yankee Stadium. The rain stopped several hours ago, and it's not a bad night for postseason baseball. A few pregame notes:
Ben Francisco watched the Phillies celebrate their World Series championship on television last year, and yearned for the same experience.
“I thought to myself, ‘I want to be there next year,’” said Francisco, who became a Phillie in July as part of the Cliff Lee trade, and earned a starting assignment in left field because of the designated hitter rule. Raul Ibanez was the DH.
“At the beginning of this season, I thought I would get there with Cleveland,” he said. “Then I got to traded, and the dream lived.”
Manager Charlie Manuel said that he did not know if Francisco would DH tomorrow, or if lefthanders Matt Stairs or Greg Dobbs would start against righthander A.J. Burnett.
Burnett has never faced Dobbs or Francisco; Stairs is 1 for 3, with two strikeouts, against him.
“I don’t know yet,” Manuel said. “What if Francisco gets about three or four hits tonight.”
Manuel decided to use Francisco in left because Ibanez continues to deal with the groin and abdominal injuries that slowed him during the second half of the regular season.
“He had an injury this year, and I think right now Francisco moves a little better,” Manuel said.
***
Phillies broadcaster Gary Matthews said that he had been invited to Thanksgiving dinner at the White House, and planned to attend. Matthews is a longtime friend of President Obama.
Major League Baseball required each player on the Phillies and Yankees to sign 864 baseballs before the World Series. The Phillies spent three hours on Thursday at Citizens Bank Park completing the task.
The Houston Astros have asked and been granted permission to speak with Phils minor league coach—and former Yankees third-base coach—Bobby Meacham for a position on their major league staff.
Brett Myers moved his left heel a few inches, and ended up on the World Series roster.
The veteran righthander, who pitched one ineffective inning in the division series and was excluded from the National League Championship Series roster, was added to the team once again. He replaced utilityman Miguel Cairo.
Pitching coach Rich Dubee said that the team needed an extra pitcher because of the lack of off-days during the World Series, and that Myers looked much improved while throwing two simulated games and two bullpen sessions during the NLCS.
“His fastball is a lot sharper,” Dubee said. “His breaking ball is better than it was before. His fastball command has improved.”
Myers said that he noticed a mechanical problem while warming up in the bullpen to pitch Game 2 of the division series, but did not have time to correct it.
“My heel was pointing too much toward the plate, so I was flying open when I released the ball,” he said.
Having corrected that issue in his side work during the NLCS, Myers feels ready to pitch, The upper back strain that sidelined him in September has healed, he said.
“It’s definitely better," Myers said.
***
Don't forget, for more detailed news from the other side, go over to Mark Feinsand's Yankees blog at the New York Daily News.
UPDATE: Brett Myers in on the World Series roster, replacing Miguel Cairo. The team's rationale was that Myers looked much improved throwing two simualted games and two bullpen sessions this week, and there were too few off days in the series to go without 12 pitchers. Also, the DH in the AL park makes an extra pinch-hitter less necessary.
From earlier:
Good afternoon from workout day Yankee Stadium. The two cities may be jawing back and forth, but the teams respect one another—or have all internalized their media training.
Here are some Yankee comments from just a few moments ago:
Jorge Posada on CC Sabathia on the field and off: “He’s been throwing a lot more curveballs. He’s been attacking the hitters. We want him to stay aggressive…. he’s always there. He’s fun. When he is not pitching, he likes to keep it fun in between starts. He works out, he does a lot of things that you like to see.”
On the Phils lineup: “They have a good lineup. They’re set. Filling the position with Ibanez really made them a lot better, a lot tougher throughout. Carlos Ruiz had a great playoff, so you have to pay attention to everyone.”
On not appearing in the WS since 2003: It has been a long time. Hopefully we can get those first butterflies out of the way and play ball.
Derek Jeter on facing the Phils now vs. in May: “They’re a different team now. They’re playing really well, they have a lot of confidence. I don’t even know what we’re facing now….They’re world champs. They won last year. They pretty much have a lot of the same guys they had last year, so it’s no fluke that they’re back.”
Jeter on Cliff Lee: “Cliff, he’s a lot better than when he first came up. Now he knows how to pitch. He used to just rear back and throw.”
On why it took so long for the Yanks to get back to the series: “When you advance in the playoffs, every round gets more and more difficult, and every team gets better and better.”
Johnny Damon on Jimmy Rollins’ prediction on Jay Leno that the Phils would win: “What do you expect him to say? You have to have that confidence…I’m sure his fans liked it when he said that.”
On the Yanks’ strategy against Lee: “He works fast, so he tries to disrupt your timing. He throws strikes on both sides of the plate. And he knows what to do.”
Does mean you have to try to work the count, slow down the game? “Possibly. He does work fast.”
Damon on the Phils: “We know they’re a confident team. They’ve played well all year. I like the fact that we have to play the defending world champions.
A-Rod’s keys to the series: “Power is a big weapon for both teams……..Two Hall of Fame shortstops, and two great leaders.”
The Phillies will be available to the media shortly. For more Yankee-related news, visit my man Mark Feinsand’s blog at the New York Daily News. That’s the paper that did NOT refer to the Phils as the Frillies.
Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia will make for a nice subplot when they face one another on Wednesday night to open the World Series at Yankee Stadium.
More on that later in the afternoon, from the workout at Yankee Stadium.
As promised, here are more detailed notes. Charlie Manuel is still ducking a lot of concrete questions about the roster and rotation. That’s probably because few decisions have been made, as team brass continues to meet and discuss.
As you know, Cliff Lee will face the Yankees’ CC Sabathia in Game 1 on Wednesday; everything beyond that remains unclear. Pedro Martinez and Cole Hamels will likely start Games 2 and 3, with the order still unknown.
Manuel did say that he would have no problem using Martinez at Yankee Stadium. The 37-year-old righthander has pitched well at Citizens Bank Park this year, going 2-0, with a 1.88 earned run average. In the regular season, he was 3-1, with a 5.66 earned run average on the road, before pitching seven scoreless innings at Dodger Stadium in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series.
Pitching for the Boston Red Sox, Martinez went 0-2, with a 5.93 earned run average in his past five playoff appearances versus the Yankee.
“Pedro has been in the big environment,” Manuel said. “He has pitched everywhere you can pitch. I don’t’ think anything is going to really bother him, or get him upset. We can pitch him in either ballpark, really. I don’t think it matters at all.”
***
Manuel said that Brett Myers was healthy enough to pitch in the World Series. But the manager did not indicate whether Myers would be included on the roster.
“He’s throwing the ball better. He’s definitely gotten better. He’s probably well to close to being healed or well.”
Manuel also said that he was comfortable keeping lefthander Antonio Bastardo on the roster, but would not overexpose the rookie.
“Right now, he’s on our roster,” Manuel said. “I’d use him. We’ll definitely put him in the game. It’s not like I don’t want to use him, but I don’t know how long he could stay out there, because he is a young kid, and he doesn’t have experience, and he is subject to make mistakes. His big need right now is to pitch, and get confident and get adjusted to the major leagues.”
In other pen-related matters, without officially announcing it, Manuel appeared to indicate that he would continue to use lefthander J.A. Happ as a relieve during the World Series.
“Being lefthanded and stuff like that, he can play up in our bullpen,” Manuel said.
***
Manuel said that Raul Ibanez would likely be the designated hitter in Game 1 against CC Sabathia.
“He’ll DH some against a lefthanded pitcher,” Manuel said. “Righthanders, I don’t know exactly what we’re going to do yet.”
***
The Phillies sound pumped about the opponent and location for this year’s World Series. Here’s a sampling:
Jayson Werth: “There is a special mystique when you walk into Yankee Stadium, new or old. It’s the cathedral of baseball, and where everybody wanted to play as a kid. It’s Yankee Stadium. As far as that goes there might be something to that and a little bit of motivation.
Manuel was also looking forward to the challenge of playing against New York. “Playing the Yankees, and who their names are, and what they stand for, that’s enough to motivate you,” he said. “I know when I walk into Yankee Stadium, the new ballpark now, it’s almost like the old stadium except the locker rooms are better, bigger and everything. As far as the field goes…it’s still got that same feel to it.
“It’s just got an atmosphere, an aura about it. It is baseball, and you think about all the great players and great teams that they’ve had come through there. I’m sure our players feel that same way.”
Hall-of-Famer Robin Roberts, whose “Whiz Kids” team lost to the Yankees in the 1950 World Series, has been watching intently, and also views this era as remarkable.
The 83-year-old Robin Roberts, whose team lost to the Yanks in 1950, is excited. “I really enjoy watching the games,” Roberts said. “It would be awful nice to see them win it again, not just because it’s the Yankees but because they are bordering on something really extraordinary.”
***
One more thing. I’m hearing a lot of confidence from Phils fans about facing CC Sabathia, because your boys beat him last year in the playoffs. Manuel provided an important reminder today that the CC of October, 2008 was not the CC of right now. The Phillies offense is good enough to beat up on just about any pitcher on the right day, but don’t think Sabathia will be a pushover.
Sabathia had pitched on short rest many times for the Brewers during the stretch run, and Manuel did not see that game as indicative that the Phils had solved the Cy Young Award-winning lefthander.
“At the end of last year, the day we beat him out here he threw a lot of change-ups,” Manuel said. “When’s really good, he pitches off his fastball. At the end of last year I thought he was a little tired.”
