Ellsbury an interesting option for Phillies
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Ellsbury an interesting option for Phillies
Bob Brookover, Inquirer Baseball Columnist
NASHVILLE -- The domino effect that can occur whenever a team makes a move at the winter meetings may have created another center-field option for the Phillies via trade Tuesday.
After the Boston Red Sox signed former Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino to a three-year, $39 million deal, the rumblings started that they may be ready to move Jacoby Ellsbury, a player who finished second in the American League MVP voting in 2011.
A separated shoulder limited Ellsbury to 74 games in 2012, marking the second time in three seasons he missed substantial time because of injuries. A rib injury limited him to 18 games in 2010.
The Phillies are already relying on Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay to have comeback seasons after missing long stretches of the 2012 season, so it would be a risk to count upon Ellsbury as their starting center fielder, too.
On the other hand, the reward would be great if Ellsbury returned to his 2011 form when he hit .321 with 47 doubles, 32 home runs and 105 RBIs while also stealing 39 bases and scoring 119 runs.
The risk in terms of dollars and long-term commitment would not be significant. Ellsbury, 29, will be a free agent after the 2013 season, so he should be motivated to play for a long-term deal. He made just over $8 million last season and probably will be paid right around that number next season.
Whenever Ellsbury has been healthy he has been an elite player. He led the American League in stolen bases with 50 in 2008 and 70 in 2009. He has scored 90 or more runs in the three seaosns he played at least 145 games and he has a .349 career on-base percentage.
Like Michael Bourn, the best pure free-agent center fielder on the free-agent market at these winter meetings, Ellsbury is represented by agent Scott Boras. Since Ellsbury is only eligible for salary arbitration, there would be no significant negotations.
What would the Phillies have to surrender in a trade for Ellsbury? The deal could get done for righthander Vance Worley because the Red Sox need another starting pitcher. Worley, 25, should be attractive to a lot of teams even though he is coming off a frustrating season caused by a bone spur that was surgically removed in September. Worley is not eligible for salary arbitratrion until after the 2013 season and cannot be a free agent until after the 2017 season. The Red Sox, after spending big in the free-agent market this offseason, should like that kind of low-cost option for the back of their starting rotation.
Comments (96)
get him..— teenwolf- get him..— teenwolf
As much as I hate to lose a starting pitcher in a starting pitching lineup that has gotten old and injured, this deal has to be done. Ellsbury is the 5 tool player the Phils thought they had in D Brown (but never panned out).
Get him before Boston comes to their senses....- Rat, if you're concerned about injuries, Ellsbury may not be your favorite:
"A separated shoulder limited Ellsbury to 74 games in 2012, marking the second time in three seasons he missed substantial time because of injuries. A rib injury limited him to 18 games in 2010."
Nevertheless, I would definitely give up Worley for him.
Disagree with this, though: "Ellsbury, 29, will be a free agent after the 2013 season, so he should be motivated to play for a long-term deal."
There is no evidence that players do better in their "walk year". For every example of a player who does do well, there is another who doesn't.— schmenkman - apparently the blue jays are making Emilio bonifacio available via trade - wouldn't he make a lotta sense for the phillies as a #2 hitter that can play CF or 3b?— mjb12981
- apparently the blue jays are making Emilio bonifacio available via trade - wouldn't he make a lotta sense for the phillies as a #2 hitter that can play CF or 3b?— mjb12981
- See if they'll take D. Brown, then sign Swisher to play right. I'll take a line-up of:
Rollins
Utley
Ellsbury
Howard
Swisher
Ruiz (post-suspension)
Ruff/Mayberry
Fransden/Galvis— CMI - Get Emilio Bonafacio from the Blue Jays. He can play nearly every position and can steal bases, he can probably even play 3B.— The Bink
- Love it.— SU_alum
- DO IT DO IT DO IT— DONDEN31
- If you're going to go for a light-hitting, high strike out speedster like Bonifacio, I'd get Bourjos, who can at least field well.— schmenkman
- I stopped reading after the word 'Boras'— Relocator
- Lukewarm on Ellsbury as he's in a contract year. If he stays healthy, and if we're not contending, he's likely gone in July. If he gets hurt OR if we are contending, he's gone next offseason, probably headed for the West Coast (he's from Oregon).
I view Worley as a solid, No. 4-type starter for years to come. Is losing him worth a half-season or 1 full season of Ellsbury?
— eman - I like Ellsbury for Worley even up! I would put him at the top of the order. Heck, I would trade Brown for Bonifacio also, and sign Swisher for RF. Pettibone would take over for Worley.— ginzo
- Schmenk: Bourjos actually proved in 2011 -- before Mike Trout took away his playing time -- that he can hit as well as field and run. He batted .271 with a .327 OBP. But Bonifacio is also a better hitter than you let on. That same year, with regular playing time for the first and only season of his career, he batted .296 and had a .360 OBP. However, Bourjos has been a regular CF, while Bonifacio has played the position only occasionally. And Bourjos is just 25 to Bonifacio's 27.— Dave Clemens
- Not sure a MLB overacheiving, 4th starting pitcher at best, coming off elbow surgery, could get Ellsbury....but if so, you do that. 4th & 5th SPs are a hell of a lot easier to replace than top of the lineup, MVP— the dad
- People need to be realistic, if they are getting Ellsbury it will have to be a package that s probably made up of Worley, Valle/Joseph, and May or whoever their favorite pitching prospect is and I would do that deal in a heartbeat. Ellsbury is an MVP caliber player you on't find better— mdb20
- @Dave C, the red flag for Bonifacio's 2011 is his batting average on balls in play. When BABIP varies significantly from a player's career norm, it typically means it's due to just luck/normal variation. Bonifacio's BABIP has been around .330 for most of his career, but in 2011 it was a very high .372.
And that's been his only season so far where his OPS has surfaced about .650.
Projections like those by Bill James' model take all that into account, as well a player's age, and for Bonifacio the James model predicts a .686 OPS in 2013.— schmenkman - Worley, at best is a #4 SP, who because he has NEVER shown great promise in the minors, is probably overacheiving right now in the MLB. Not that he couldn't put it together all of a sudden. Still, add him coming off of elbow surgery, and it's a no brainer to trade him for Ellsbury, who is a bonafide top of the lineup, MVP/Gold Glove candidate in CF. As far as #4 & #5 SPs go, they are a dime a dozen. Even for one year.— the dad
- This is the purest of pure speculation. I hate reports like this.— Cheesesteak
- Hard to believe that Ruben would move a starting pitcher who can be controlled for five more years like Worley and will make little in 2013 for a one year rental like Ellsbury. Moving Kendrick make more sense since he will earn $4.5 million this year and he is a free agent after 2013 just like Ellsbury.— Dull
- Maybe I'm missing something. The guy is a No. 4 starter coming off a 6-9/4.20 year and offseason elbow surgery. I don't know what's harder to believe: that Boston would evern entertain a discussion about swapping Ellsbury for Worley in the first place, or that there are actually people in this city who would not let go of Worley in the deal
- Just say no... Four/Five years of Worley is worth way more than one year of Ellsbury. If they trade Worley, they are going to have to do a lot better than a rental player who is a high injury risk. Say no and move on to the next aisle— sjuhawk416
- Schmenkman: Despite his history, you still have to pull the trigger. Healthy, he is head and shoulders above Bourne. And should we be lucky to get him, I want to see the Phillies go outside the box and get him locked up instead of their traditional way of player dealings and letting him play his way out of Philly..... Also, as an aside: appreciate the stats you use in presenting your points, they definitely present players in a different perspective.
@Dave Clemens: Another fine post! However there is no smoke, no bits posted by these writers about any deal with LA. At any rate, this team cannot go into these season with a starting line up of Mayberry and D Brown. And I want to see the potential of Ruf blossom unimpeded by Charlie.....— DelawareRiverRat - This isn't fantasy baseball. Nobody trades an MVP candidate for a No. 4 starter straight up. Heck while we're at it, let's move Kyle Kendrick for Miguel Cabrera
- The Phillies moves must be significant just for them to compete in that division with Washington and Atlanta. The problem is that the only significant moves would come attached with a huge sense of uncertainty namely Hamilton and Ellsbury. Bourn, Fowler, Bourjos not really significant impact players. Ludwick maybe but again there is a level of uncertainty.— Phillip Phan
- why not
— jmmdk5 - Clueless Rube has no ability to make a trade for a genuine young talenet because he already emptied the store and depleted the minors for such aging and/or long-gone busts like Halladay, Oswalt and Pence, and got back in return only useless trash for Victorino, Pence, Lee and Blanton ... clueless Rube has destroyed the franchise as Phils have nothing (other than a Hamels) and no ability to get better— warbiscuit
- The chance of everybody returning to form is remote. We don't need another rehab case. Remember last year waiting on Utley and Howard? Now we also have to wait for Ruiz. Will Utley be ready to go this year?— ACBaughman
- Worley had elbow issues in college and now elbow surgery. I do not think he is going to get better over the next few years and might actually already be well on his way to TJ surgery. I wold dump him on somebody if we could.
Having said that, is Ellsbury the guy? When I think of Ellsbury, I see Grady Sizemore in my head. Loads of talent, can't stay healthy or on the field. Pretty big risk, but I wold do it for Worley, not for any other guy but maybe Cloyd. And I guess if we are seriously considering another LH hitter in Bourn or Hamilton, why not Ellsbury? But I am too lazy to look up his stats facing lefties...somebody get on that for me, would you?— Mark1npt - He hits lefties better than any right-handed hitter on the Phillies hits lefties. Sizemore's injuries have been of the back and knee surgery variety plus some other oddball injuries throughout his career. Ellsbury basically had a rib injury and a dislocated shoulder. Still a risk but I'd roll the dice on him, at least way more so than Sizemore
- Boras is for all purposes out of any deal. Ellsbury IS NOT a free agent and is only eligible for arbitration. Note to Ruben: $8 mil is cheap compared to what Victorino got and Bourn will command. Sign him.— 1republican
- I think they should take a one-year guy like Ellsbury if they can get him, rather than commit dollars and years to an aging guy like Bourn. See what happens with Ruf, Gillies, and Brown in 2013 and then move on from there for 2014.— jtj10
- Let me try to understand this. The Red Sox have a CF of Ellsbury's caliber and they sign Shane Victorino to a fat three year deal? If they are foolish enough to consider that an upgrade, maybe they really would consider taking Vance (One Year Wonder) Worley for Ellsbury. The Phillies would then still have money to pursue not only a corner outfielder but also a free agent pitcher equal to or better than Worley while the Petitbons, Biddles, Morgans, and Martins wait in the wings.
Ruin, exactly what you need may be right there with a big red bow on it. Get after it already!— dasher - BTW, I'd dump Worley at the first opportunity. He's fat and out of shape which will catch up to him and derail any hopes he has for a successful career.— jtj10
- I dont know about you guys writing about this player or that player, we are in a lot of trouble. We need at least 2 players to catch atlanta and 4 players to catch washington, i dont see it happening.
we were talkning about the 4 aces couple years ago? now we are down to 2 and a half and the other guys have 5 and a better lineup, we are doomed.— wildgreenman - I have no faith in Brown. ? mark on Ruf. Mayberry was given the
chance and he failed. So if Ruf isn't for real then we need 3
outfielders. Ideally, Ruf is for real and RAJ trades for Stanton.
I'm surprised RAJ hasn't done anything by now. But i believe in
Santa Claus and i asked for Stanton so maybe Santa will have
him under our Christmas tree. Oops, am I allowed to say Christmas
instead of happy holidays?— associate - Jacoby Ellsbury is still a fit for Boston. He is being paid only $8 million and is relatively young compared to Victorino. Shane was signed to play a corner spot and be insurance IF Ellsbury gets injured again. If Boston feels that Jacoby will NOT resign long-term with Boston after next season, then they will indeed look to move him for pitching. If I'm Philly, I'd move both Worley and Schwimmer (he too is a Boris Client) for Ellsbury in a heartbeat. Not sure Boston would do this. This seems more like a reach by our sports writers.— drhoffman
- how can you guys be so gullable. Boston has a mvp candidate to roam the outfield for almost half the money as the flyin hawaain and are willing to trade him? its andrew bynum all over again wake up.— wildgreenman
- WOW...Ellsbury was SECOND in MVP in 2011..he hit over 32 home runs.... had .321 BA, 105 RBI's and stole a ton of bases...WOW, trade a #4 starter for him TODAY!— jim35
- No way Boston makes that move, hope I am wrong.— camasbud
- I guess everyone is missing the part where Boras was mentioned? Not happening. Dumbest report of the winter so far. 2 guys and the best they come up with is this? Anything else you two fellas want to throw at the wall and see if it'll stick? You know if you come up with enough ridiculousness, something is about to stick. You guys and murphy are falling all over each other with nonsense. Worley in a deal for j. upton is just about as stupid. And some of you think Amaro is an idiot??— spittooncj
- @spittooncj - agreed it's unlikely, but what does Boras have to do with it, other than that Ellsbury will be expensive to keep beyond 2013?— schmenkman
- Ellsburg and Bonifaco = WS?— walt1
- noooo! are the posters on here sadists or masochists? do some math, our record was desimated last year by inuries - adding another player who's ALREADY injury prone? wow.— PhillyDanny
- This article just proves that some sportswriters in this town are as ignorant as most fans. Worley for Ellsbury? Get real. Ellsbury should have been the 2011 AL MVP. He doesn't own a huge contract. The guy is gold on the trade market while Worley is pleather.— JodyMac
- how about Worley and Brown to Arizona for Justin Upton and then pending the money on Greineke— Roswell Greys
- Sell or trade Howard to any team who'd settle for one homerun for every fifteen-twenty KO's. Put Ruf at first and use the money for the best third or centerfielder available.
Worley? trade for any weak position. He's never in shape. Watch him start sweating after two innings.
Howard's 13 Ko's in the Yankee series two years ago convinced me, like Reid, he's over rated .— Lew Klein - Worley stays.
Sign Josh Hamilton. Move Ryan Howard (sorry Ryan) to some AL team in a trade for a 3B-er. Mayberry becomes regular 1B-er. - Toss in Brownie and the rights to Steve Jeltz and do it , RAJ.— NewMick314
- do it.— Bartleby
- this has all the makings of an internet rumor. Why in their right mind would the Redsox do this?— thingfish
- Maybe they can get Ellsbury and Bonafacio?— Paul SoTX
- Stop with the options. You can write/speculate all you want. It's up to the Phillies to actually DO SOMETHING. You've been through a bunch of guys already. Most of them are under contract elsewhere. I stick to ESPN for news.— billtfla
- Good points, all of you - HOWEVER - I echo eman's concern - that of losing years of Vanimal for at best, 1 full season of Ellsbury.— dwp66
- Ya think the Red Sox are telling us something. Ellsbury is not as safe a bet as Victorino whether we are talking about health, skill or contract issues.The Phillies went through something similiar with Hunter Pence. They got him thinking he was a rising star. After watching him the remainder of 2011 and until the deadline in 2012,they made some kind of determination that (A) he was not as good as the originally thought he was or (B) he was going to cost them too much in this arbitration year or (C) they did not think they could sign him, or did not want to sign him in free agency. I am curious to see what the Giants do with Pence at the trading deadline in 2013.Stay away from injury plagued athletics. There are people who maintain that Dominic Brown's failure to reach his expected potential is a very long list of injuries - some minor, some not so minor, but all reoccuring at junctures when it appeared he was ready to take off. This would be the type of trade you are better walking away from. Suppose you get Ellsbury for Worley. Ellsbury stays healthy and has a big year. Do you think the Phillies could afford him in free agency. Or, the other hand, suppose Ellbury is hurt and has no impact. How would you feel about giving Worley away for nothing. The risk/reward is just not there.— candidly
- No brainer to me...Bourjos for center and Bonifacio for third base.— ocpizza
- No-brainer. Bye-bye, Vance, if we can get Ellsbury. Bonifacio would be a great addition, too, depending on what we have to give up.— iceman
- So why did we non-tender Nate Sheirholtz? He would have cost like 1.5m through arbitration and plays a very serviceable outfield. Rather than lateral moves in a trade or spending 15-25m a year on Bourne or Hamilton.— Mo Biggsley
- I don't think Bonifacio is going to outhit Frandsen (or Mayberry).— schmenkman
- @PhillyTaz " Amaro waits too long to make any deals and the results are always the same, we get the last option, and ask yourself one question, Why are they the last option?" Are you serious? Did you forgot about the Papelbon signing which came within days of the 2011 WS conclusion? Amaro was crucified on these very boards for being so aggressive.— MrLincoln
- Boras client - big payday, no performance!— 4thand10
- Another Boras client and not a free agent until next year. Why get him now, knowing Boras won't let him sign a new contract until after next season?— sonnybuoy01
- Michael Bourn!— peteinmich
- he's exactly the type of player I'd love to see roaming center field for the Phillies. I'd take him over Victorino any day of the week.— Ryan
- reading these comments is so depressing. Here I thought Phillie fans were knowledgeable . guess not. people who want to give up on brown and trade him for a middling garbage bench player like Emilio Bonifacio are out of their minds. Brown is still developing and could become an all star outfielder for the next ten years. imagine if in 2005 we traded Chase Utley for a Bobby Abreu type guy? that's what you are advocating.— Ryan
- wouldn't mind giving up worley for shot at a solid (if healthy) outfielder— Zero
- Worley? I think this either happens with Lee or not at all. Lee's owed either $87.5M through 2015 or $102.5M through 2016 (if his option vests). Reuben has been in then out on Lee for years. Traded for him, then traded him, re-signed him then considered trading him again. They still need a CF, a 3B, probably a corner OF, someone who can catch for awhile, and they're about $130M in on payroll right now. I'm not seeing why Boston wouldn't just keep Ellsbury for 2013. Worst-case scenario they get a pick for him next year and still have money to spend elsewhere. I don't know the logic of what Boston is doing, but the talk that they're still looking at Ross for RF when they already signed Gomes for LF (utterly redundant to Ross) and the Hawaiian screams another move. I'm just not seeing how a fourth starter benefits them if it means giving up their CF, and it's hardly a secret that Amaro has buyer's remorse not on Lee but on Lee's contract. Or rather, Howard's contract, but nobody would take Howard.— sklandog
- You can't win without hitting. Worley is no guarantee either. Do the deal if its on the table.— Boru
- BOB!!!! on what planet are you getting Ellsbury for Worley?!?!— ArtieLange
- Bourjos would be a good one to trade for. He's an excellent fielder and his hitting will only get better.— s
- NOT A GOOD MOVE! Dude cant stay healthy...— LumpDog
- Victorino ... $39 mil... HAHAHAHAHA— mmds
- clueless imbecile has absolutley no idea what to do.. too busy trying to justify the $105 million still due over the next 4 yrs to pay a should-be platooning d.h. (Howard), another 40 mil. due to be paid to a g@dawful closer who can only be counted on to blow any important game, and a 40-man roster deviod of any talent or prospects whatsoever after one or 2 good pithcers (hamels, Lee)..what a joke to read these comments as if there are some viable solutions .the imbecile has flushed this franchise down the #$%%%%, and now fans can wait a few yrs when someone competent can begin to figure out how to rebuild from scratch— warbiscuit
- Warbiscuit- I'm no fan of Amaro and agree that he has made bad trades and signings, but why do you keep harping on the Papelbon signing? He is not nearly as bad as you are making him out to be. Overpaid? Maybe. "Godawful"? No way. Come on, man! — Larry Brown
- Do it!— johnny eagle
- DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1— comin4ya23
- It's a good thing season ticket bills were already due a few weeks ago. I would not have renewed if I knew bozo Amaro would not improve the team one bit.— Larry Brown
- When Howard hits 40 HRs and drives in 130 again, like he has already done 5 times, will you idiots get off his back? He played last season on one good leg, missed half the season and still came within 12 of leading the team in RBI. Runs, scoring them and preventing them, that is how you win. Howard is the best RBI man in the NL by far, and this bunch of Frontruners does not appreciate him. What a world.— Paul SoTX
- Worley for Ellsbury?
That' it? That's all it would take?
I thought Ruben Amaro Jr. was the Phillies GM?— PhightinPhil - Trade Worley,Brown,Valle, Howard,Plus cash to Miami for Stanton. Throw in Galvis or a prospect if need be! Take Ellsbury if a realistic deal can be made.
Lineup
1- Rollins
2- Utley
3- Ruiz
4- Stanton
5- Ellsbury
6- Ruf
7- Maberry Jr/ LH Pickup or minor league promotion
8- Frandzen/ LH pickup or minor league promotion— Jiminfl - When does Uncle Charlie get the boot? He's still the worst strategic manager in MLB! I figure promoting Sandberg and firing the bumbling seed-sucker gets us 10 games closer to the Nats & Braves without spending any money! Does Choll have pictures of Montgomery, or what??— TruthTeller01
- To PAUL SoTEX ...Big Ry is a great regular season run producer, but when he faces good pitching in the postseason, his K's multiply (even by his outrageous standards). He hits the cripples, but struggles vs the real arms. I'm not a Howard hater, (and hope he proves me wrong) but simply keeping it real!— TruthTeller01
- @TruthTeller, what exactly are you talking about?
Howard has a .915 OPS in the regular season
He has a .845 OPS in the postseason
That is not a big difference by any means, especially considering that the postseason is a small sample and there's bound to be some normal variation. And of course, with better pitching, most hitters have worse stats in the postseason.
Stats per 162 games:
Regular season .. 162 hits, 30 doubles, 44 HR, 136 RBI, 83 BB, 193 SO
Postseason ...... 155 hits, 46 doubles, 28 HR, 116 RBI, 92 BB, 236 SO
Those are still some very good stats.
You also don't know Sandberg will be any better than Manuel, by the way.— schmenkman - Howard's NLCS and WS OPS is even higher. It's the NLDS series that pull it down a bit. You'd think the pitching would be better as move up in the post-season, right? People only remember the bad Howard moments it seems. Not that he hit .316 in NLSC series or was the 2009 NLCS MVP.
Now I'm not fond of that contract ... But if you're a fan you have to be waiting to see how Howard looks fully recovered from the Achilles injury. Last year there was no way he was going to hit anywhere near normal coming back as soon as he did.
The Phillies also report that Utley has been taking ground balls every day all winter and no issues so far. I don't think they're going to let him surprise them in spring training this year. It's a lot to hope for, but both guys healthy, even at some level of decline, will make a difference in 2013.— s - Stop fooling yourselves. WHY WOULD BOSTON DO THIS?!— passi0natephillyfan
- The most amazing event of the day to me: The Angels offering Joe Blanton $15M for two years. Joe was good at the end of '08. Since that time how many GOOD games has he pitched? Less than a handful? Being in a different league will help him for a short while. Maybe? No disrespect to Joe, just business. I would rather trust my best AAA pitcher.— PhilsfaninNebraska
- @PhilsfaninNebraska -- I think a "quality start" qualifies as "good".
Blanton had:
21 QS's in 2009
16 QS's in 2010
2 QS's in 2011 when he was hurt
15 QS's in 2012— schmenkman - Blanton gets no respect. He'll be looking pretty good in hindsight if Kendrick struggles or any of our starters go down. He wasn't just a 2008 guy. He was strong in all his second halves for the Phillies except when he was hurt in 2011. In 2010 he went 6-1 in the second half. This year when virtually every other starter stunk in that horrible stretch in June/July Blanton won 4 straight starts. He's not a #1 ace but he's a solid 4/5 guy.
He was probably overpaid but so was every other free agent so far.
— s - Trade for Michael Young and sign Michael Bourn, the best defensive CF and leadoff hitter in the game. Force JRoll to hit second..
Lineup:
Borne CF
Rollins SS
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Ruf LF
Brown/Mayberry RF
Young 3B
Ruiz C— oldfriar - I don't think Young is better than Frandsen at this point of his career. Please, Michael Young -- veto that trade.— schmenkman
- Young is still good and it sounds like the Rangers might eat half his salary for next year. Frandsden looked good too and he should get his share of time. Young can also occasionally spell Utley at 2B and we can unload Martinez.— oldfriar
- @oldfriar: Granted he'll likely bounce back some in 2013, but this year Michael Young was one of the 5 worst regulars in MLB.
Agree he provides some versatility. Perhaps he can be the new Wiggy.— schmenkman - Bad deal. They need another right hand bat,not another lefty, and Ellsbury has only 1 year left on his contract. Trade for Upton, if possible, or pick up Cody Ross.— MUADDIB
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