Posted: Wednesday, September 24, 2008, 11:52 AM | 42 comments |
 
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Here's a short story about a guy named Steve Green. I shared it briefly in the comments section of the Happ post yesterday. Steve Green has pitched six innings in his major league career. He's currently a 30-year-old pitcher for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Went 5-1 with a 3.09 ERA in 35 appearances this season, all but one in relief.  Seven years ago, however, he was a 23-year-old pitching prospect in the Angels organization. After starting the season in Triple A, the Angels called him to make a start against Oakland in place of Ismael Valdes, who was on the disabled list with a split fingernail on his right hand. After allowing two runs in six innings of a 4-2 Angels loss, he was optioned back to Triple-A Salt Lake. A couple months later, Green suffred a torn flexor muscle and ulnar collateral ligament, causing him to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Green hasn't appeared in the big leagues since, but he did spend the entire 2002 season on the Angels' disabled list.
This is significant, because in September of 2002 the Angels called up a young pitcher named Francisco Rodriguez from their minor league system. Rodriguez pitched 5 2/3 innings in September, striking out 13 of the 21 batters he faced. Because Rodriguez was called up after September 1, he was technically inelligible for the postseason. But MLB rules stipulate that any player on the disabled list at midnight on Aug. 31 is eligible for the postseason. And MLB teams are allowed to substitute a member of their minor league system for a player who is injured. So the Angels added Rodriguez to their playoff roster in place of Green. Rodriguez went on to win five games for the Angels in the postseason. In the World Series, he struck out 13 batters in 8 1/3 innings as the Angels beat the Giants to become world champs.

Now that I made you sit through all of that, here's how it impacts your life: as of Aug. 31, the Phillies had five players on the disabled list: Mike Zagurski, Scott Mathieson, Francisco Rosario, Tom Gordon and Geoff Jenkins. Which means that, should they choose, they could add any of their minor leaguers who weren't on the roster Aug. 31 to replace one of those five players.

So what will the postseason roster look like?

It'll be an interesting decision-making process, to say the least.

Here are the players who, in my opinion, are stone cold locks to be on:

Pitchers (11)
Cole Hamels
Brett Myers
Jamie Moyer
Joe Blanton
Brad Lidge
J.C. Romero
Chad Durbin
Ryan Madson
Scott Eyre
Clay Condrey
Rudy Seanez

Infielders (6)
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
Jimmy Rollins
Pedro Feliz
Greg Dobbs
Eric Bruntlett

Outfielders (3)
Pat Burrell
Jayson Werth
Shane Victorino

Catchers (2)
Chris Coste
Carlos Ruiz

Again, those are just stone cold locks. There are 22 of them. Which means there are three spots that I at least have some questions about. Here are the questions:

1. Do you keep Kyle Kendrick on the roster?
This would have seemed an asinine question two months ago. But Kendrick isn't going to start in the postseason, and the Phillies have used him just once in relief since taking him out of the rotation. They left their fifth starter - Adam Eaton - off the roster last season. Will the Phillies keep Kendrick on the roster as a long man out of the bullpen? If they opt not to put him on the roster, they could keep him around as an "extra man" in case of injury.

2. If they leave Kendrick off, is a guy like J.A. Happ worth keeping?
As good as Happ has been in his four starts, it's hard to see him fitting in, at least for the first round (teams can adjust their rosters between rounds). Though the Phillies kept him in the bullpen for the first half of the month, he has allowed seven runs and two home runs in 6 1/3 innings of relief this season. Do they want Happ on the roster badly enough to keep a 12th pitcher? That'd severely hinder the bench. It's hard to see them replacing a veteran reliever like Rudy Seanez with Happ. "Extra man" status might be where Happ is headed.

3. Speaking of the bench, which of these players won't make the squad: Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, So Taguchi, or Greg Golson?
The most interesting situation on the team by far. This is purely a gut feeling, but I think Golson has a spot on the squad. He's proven how valuable his speed can be. Everyone remembers Dave Roberts' performance in the ALCS against the Yankees back in 2004. But if Golson does make the squad, it likely means one of three veteran bats will be left off.

A lot could depend on the health of Jenkins. He hasn't played the field or run the bases since returning from the disabled list earlier this month. He's told me he is ready to go, but the Phillies haven't used him as a baserunner or outfielder since he strained his hip flexor in Chicago. If Jenkins is completely healthy, I would have included him as a stone-cold lock. But if he is still hampered by the injury, can the Phillies afford to keep two one-dimensional players (Jenkins - Hitting; Golson - Running/Fielding)? You also have to take into consideration this: Jenkins wants to play in the postseason badly. He's never had a chance in his 11 seasons in the bigs. I know sentimentality should go out the window in the postseason, but does it really?

Then there is Taguchi. He is hitting just .198 this season. He has struggled at times as a defensive replacement. He hasn't had a plate appearance since Sept. 1, and hasn't had a hit since July 27. But he has a World Series ring and has hit .250 with two home runs in 26 postseason games. And he is a right-handed bat.

Stairs has played sparingly since the Phillies acquired him in late August from the Blue Jays. But he does have four hits in 13 at-bats, including a home run and four RBIs. He also has postseason experience, albeit slim (he is 1-for-10 in division series with Boston in 1995 and Oakland in 2000).

4. So where does that leave us?
If they keep 11 pitchers, it leaves us with six reserves. Likely either Coste, Bruntlett, Dobbs, Stairs, Jenkins, Taguchi or Coste, Bruntlett, Dobbs, Stairs, Jenkins and Golson.

5. Isn't it too early to be talking about this?
Probably. But we just killed 10 minutes out of the work day, didn't we? You're welcome.

Posted by David Murphy @ 11:52 AM  Permalink | 42 comments
42
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:28 PM, 09/24/2008
    I don't care if So Taguchi batted .800 for the Cardinals in the playoffs in '06. He sucks this year and doesn't belong on the roster for the postseason.
    Matt
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:06 PM, 09/24/2008
    I will keep the eleven pitchers you got on the list, Dave. I don't think you'll need more than that in a best of five series. Now the questions is, do you want to keep 3 lefthanders on the bench? You saw what happened yesteray when Bobby Cox brought a couple of lefties and Charlie could no use Dobbs, Stairs or Jenkins. So that means you may have to keep, gulp!, Taguchi.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:12 PM, 09/24/2008
    Matt Stairs is a lock. Golson should be a lock, however, he may be substituted for someone like Taguchi to provide a 'veteran presence' that Manuel and Williams love so much, which also makes me wanna puke. The 25th man most likely will be Kendrick, and would be used in case of mop of duty during a blowout. Save Happ for your Game 4 starter in the NLCS and use Blanton strictly out of the bullpen for the playoffs.
    CyHamels
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:21 PM, 09/24/2008
    BTW Dave, I like to keep Golson for the same reason you pointed out. As a matter of fact, we were discussing that yesterday in another blog and I happened to mention the Dave Roberts steal on that Yankee-Red Sox series. It changed the momentum and the rest is history. I guess we agree on something.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:33 PM, 09/24/2008
    You forgot about Tadahito Iguchi
    heyitsmark
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:51 PM, 09/24/2008
    Tadahito Iguchi was not added to the roaster before Sept 1st therefor he is not eligible for the postseason.
    vtec
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:00 PM, 09/24/2008
    Golson, Happ, and Stairs deserve spots on the roster.
    GHOSTPHAYCE
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:05 PM, 09/24/2008
    There is no need for Happ or Kendrick (assuming Blaton is the 4th starter). You don't carry a pitcher just for mop-up duty in the postseason. Condrey will have to fill that role if need be- you won't have to worry about him pitching in the 7th or 8th because the majority of the bullpen will be available every game. They have 2 days off before the playoffs start and an off-day before game 3 and before game 5- plenty of time to rest. They only carried 10 pitchers on the postseason roster last year, so there's no way they'd go with more than 11 this year. Condrey and Seanez probably aren't locks either if they decide to go with 10 arms again.
    Potus415
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:08 PM, 09/24/2008
    Where is Rob Ducey when you need him.
    GDuBBiT
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:12 PM, 09/24/2008
    It's a little bit risky, but I'd keep Marson. That way, Coste could be used as a RH bat off of the bench if Ruiz starts. I'd also keep Golson (for the same reasons mentioned above) and Stairs. Jenkins is lame, Taguchi is washed up, and Kendrick just needs to pack it in and come back strong next year. I hate to leave Happ off, but I have no idea how effective he'd be as the third situational lefty out of the BP. I also think that Blanton gets the nod over him as the fourth starter on experience.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:28 PM, 09/24/2008
    You really take things to heart don't you LB?
    Matt
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:54 PM, 09/24/2008
    Stairs is a lock. Adequate in field, good LH bat, a veteran with power. Cant see why you would take any of my 10 minutes conidering Kendrick, Taguchi or Eaton. Condrey and Seanez are the same guy, so keep one, drop the other and add Happ to staff, Hope this leaves room for Golson.
    mick314
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:14 PM, 09/24/2008
    I don't see Happ or Kendrick making the playoff roster unless there's an injury and they get added in a later round. Neither one pitches effectively out of the bullpen so it would just be a wasted roster spot. I think Jenkins and Stairs are competing for the same spot. I don't think you keep two left-handed power hitting pinch-hitters on the bench. So Taguchi will make the roster. Whine all you want about his performance this year, but pinch-hitters tend to have up and down seasons from year to year. He was the leading pinch-hitter in the NL last year, he has a World Series ring and he's more versatile. He could probably play any of the 3 outfield spots, he's better defensively than Jenkins or Stairs and he could pinch-run if you had already used Golson in the game. In the playoffs, you're looking for bench guys who are more versatile and can fill in for specific situations, not for guys who can start every 5th game.
    JimG
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:15 PM, 09/24/2008
    Yeah, judging from the last blog LB and his other friends really didn't enjoy you judging their lifestyle, Matt
    scotty82


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About David Murphy
David Murphy joined the Daily News as its Phillies beat writer in February of 2008. Born in Upper Merion and raised in the Poconos, he attended college at La Salle University before taking jobs with the Myrtle Beach (S.C.) Sun-News and the St. Petersburg ( Fla. ) Times. E-mail Dave at dmurphy@phillynews.com.

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