Phillies offense: A personnel problem, or an approach problem
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Phillies offense: A personnel problem, or an approach problem
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
If there is one thing fans have learned over the last three years, it is to consider any public comments by Ruben Amaro Jr. with a healthy degree of caution. He insisted the Phillies were not in the market for an elite starting pitcher almost to the day they traded for Roy Halladay. He insisted they were prioritizing a reliever almost to the day they traded for Hunter Pence. We are not accusing Amaro of being a liar. Being a big league GM requires a certain amount of misdirection. Nobody will ever fault a poker player for bluffing.
Phillies fans should hope that Amaro's comments during his year-in-review press conference earlier this week are another instance in which the third-year GM is simply playing the game. They should hope that his primary goal was not to put Charlie Manuel on notice for next season. They should hope that his public assessment of the Phillies' offensive personnel is not the same as his private assessment, that he is merely attempting to disguise his plan for what could end up being the most interesting offseason in recent memory.
Because anybody who has watched this team over the last four seasons will tell you that its biggest problem does not lie in its approach. And the numbers will back that assertion.
The Phillies are getting old. They are getting slower. They are getting weaker. And, unless they have suddenly discovered an antidote to the normal trajectory of age, they are losing hand-eye coordination. This year, they saw nine players age 32 or older accumulate at least 100 plate appearances. Since 1950, only nine other National League teams have featured that many contributors on the back ends of their careers. None of those teams finished in the top half of the league in runs. The only team to advance to the World Series was the 2010 Giants, who along with the 2003 Cubs (losers in the NLCS) had the best offense of the bunch.
The Phillies have already out-performed their age. They finished seventh in the NL in runs this season, better than any other team that featured as many old players. They finished second in 2010, when they had the oldest lineup in the NL. They finished first in 2009, when they had the second-oldest lineup. But they can't out-run age forever. And Father Time finally appears to be catching up.
That's not to say that we should call the horse amublance and raise up the curtain. And Amaro was correct in saying that the Phillies need to change their approach. But the approach that needs changing most is their approach to the construction of the lineup and roster, not their approach at the plate.
The Phillies lost to the Cardinals in the NLDS for a number of reasons. But you can start at third base. St. Louis had 28-year-old David Freese, who drove in five runs and scored one. The Phillies had 35-year-old Placido Polanco, who drove in none and scored none. At every other position, the two teams created runs evenly. Ryan Howard scored or drove in 6 of the Phillies' 21 runs. Albert Pujols scored or drove in 3 of the Cardinals' 19. At second base and center field, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino scored or drove in 9 runs. Skip Schumaker, Nick Punto and Jon Jay scored or drove in 9 runs. In left and right field, Raul Ibanez, Hunter Pence and John Mayberry Jr. scored or drove in 11 runs. Lance Berkman, Allen Craig and Matt Holliday scored or drove in 12. At short stop, Jimmy Rollins scored or drove in 6 runs. Rafael Furcal scored or drove in 3.
When the Phillies signed Polanco to a three-year deal before the 2010 season, the biggest question mark was his age. But they felt his defensive and contact rate provided a better value than the power and speed of more youthful options. It is hard to fault the Phillies for not taking a risk on a rich, multi-year deal for Adrian Beltre, who was also a free agent at the time. No other major league team felt comfortable meeting Beltre's demands. But by signing Polanco to a three-year deal, they limited their options beyond Beltre. Maybe the Blue Jays would not have parted with Jose Bautista at any cost during the 2010 trade deadline. Maybe the money remaining on Michael Young's contract would have prevented a deal this spring. Maybe Aramis Ramirez would have nixed any potential deal with the Cubs. Maybe the Phillies still would have been unable to meet Beltre's demands in his second straight offseason as a free agent. Maybe they would not have been able to swing a deal for the Padres' Chase Headley at the trade deadline.
The point is, the ramifications of a team's personnel evaluation at a given position extends beyond the actual production it gets out of that position. Every decision impacts every subsequent decision. Look back at the 2009 offseason, when the Phillies signed Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $31.5 million contract. He was the best free agent option. Milton Bradley, Pat Burrell, Juan Rivera -- those were the choices. On one hand, the Phillies might not have made the playoffs that season if not for Ibanez's stellar first half. On the other hand, they might have been forced to explore a move for a bat like Matt Holliday.
Polanco might be a better example. If the Phillies are getting more production out of third base, maybe they do not feel the need to trade for Hunter Pence this summer, instead choosing to pursue lower-cost options in right field. Maybe they feel they can win with a pitcher of a lesser pedigree than Roy Oswalt last season. Or, if they do not trade Cliff Lee to the Mariners, maybe they do not need a pitcher. Maybe they do not trade Anthony Gose, who is coming off a Double-A season in which he posted a .349 on base percentage with 70 steals and 16 home runs. Maybe the presence of a 20-year-old future leadoff hitter and center fielder changes the Phillies' approach to this offseason, when leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins is a free agent and center fielder Shane Victorino is entering the final year of his contract. Maybe it opens up new levels of trade possibilities, possibilities that would trump Oswalt or Pence in terms of neighborhood blockbusters.
When you really break it down, a front office's job is to predict the future better than other front offices. Certainly, it is to predict the future better than the general public. Nobody is saying that Amaro and his fellow executives have failed. Remember, the Phillies are coming of a 102-win season. If they lose to the Braves in the final series of the regular season and eliminate the Cardinals from the playoffs, there is a good chance they are still playing. For the second straight year, they ran into the one team that was built to beat them in the postseason. This is not revisionist history. I said it last summer about the Giants, and I said it this summer about the Cardinals. At the time, neither team was a lock for the playoffs. Both of them snuck in. And, as fate would have it, both ended up playing the Phillies.
At the same time, the Phillies learned a tough lesson. When you put the majority of your chip stack on black, and the wheel lands on red, you have a problem. Black is postseason success. Black is pitching. The Phillies' traded for Roy Oswalt and signed Cliff Lee. They did not add a corner outfielder like Lance Berkman, or reserves like Nick Punto or Ryan Theriot or Rafael Furcal. Oswalt battled injuries, saw his strikeout rate dip, and allowed five runs while taking the loss in Game 4. Lee dominated during the regular season, then allowed five runs and took the loss in Game 2. Polanco performed at his expected level when healthy, but he battled injuries that affected his hitting throughout the second halves of both 2010 and 2011.
Polanco's struggles were exacerbated by the fact that the Phillies did not have any reliable offensive options to replace him. Organizational philosophy has always favored defense over offense. As we pointed out earlier, that philosophy has served them well: 102 wins, preceded by 97, preceded by 93, preceded by 92, and so on. But if Amaro's remarks are even somewhat truthful, then he believes that the Phillies underachieved. And it seems unfair to suggest that the biggest reason for that under-achievement lies in something that Manuel and Greg Gross can control with their coaching.
In 2011, Manuel had three players log at least 200 plate appearances and post an on base percentage of under .296. In his first six seasons combined, he had none.
Three more hitters logged between 100 and 200 plate appearances with an on base percentage of under .295 in 2011. In Manuel's first six seasons combined, he had seven total (Juan Castro and Greg Dobbs in 2010, Endy Chavez and Tomas Perez in 2005, Eric Bruntlett in 2009, So Taguchi in 2008 and Sal Fasano in 2006). In Manuel's two full seasons as manager of the Indians, Jolbert Cabrera was his only player who posted an on base percentage of under .310 while logging at least 100 plate appearances.
Over his seven seasons as manager of the Phillies, Manuel has not gone out of his way to alter the public perception about his philosophy. He talks fawningly about Harmon Killebrew and Walter Alston. Many of his home-spun tales are woven from the fabric of baseball's mythological view of power. All of it provides the type of easy narrative on which the media typically gorges itself. But it also ignores reality. In reality, Manuel's idea of a great hitter is not Killebrew, but Ted Williams. If you offered him a lineup of eight Chase Utleys versus eight Ryan Howards, he would take the former.
In the NLDS loss, the Cardinals appeared to do a much better job of extending at bats, of wearing down opposing pitchers. Amaro said that the Phillies need to improve in that area, and that the personnel in place are capable of doing so. In 2011, they saw an average of 3.80 pitcher per plate appearance, ranking a mediocre eighth in the NL. But in each Manuel's first five seasons as a big league manager (his two full seasons with the Indians and his first three with the Phillies), his teams ranked in the top four in their league in pitches per plate appearance, including second in the NL in 2005 and 2007:
| Year | Pitches Per PA | League Rank |
| 2000 | 3.88 | 3 |
| 2001 | 3.77 | 4 |
| 2005 | 3.84 | 2 |
| 2006 | 3.82 | 3 |
| 2007 | 3.87 | 2 |
| 2008 | 3.84 | 7 |
| 2009 | 3.86 | 4 |
| 2010 | 3.85 | 6 |
Did Manuel change his philosophy after 2007? Or did Geoff Jenkins and Raul Ibanez replace Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell?
Without a doubt, there is a need for the Phillies to play a different style of baseball. Not only are they getting older and less powerful, but the pitching around the National League is getting better. The NL East features pitchers like Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Tommy Hanson, Craig Kimbrell, Jonny Venters, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard. Five years ago, that was not the case. The Phillies can still mash mediocre-to-below-average pitching. But they can't mash it as hard. And, more importantly, there is less of it.
Maybe Amaro thinks that the Phillies need to stop going to the plate looking for a pitch they can drive, and instead look for a pitch they can put into play to get on base. Maybe if they had that mentality, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez would have hit singles instead of flying out in front of the wall in Game 5.
On the other hand, maybe the players on the roster are who they are. Maybe the roster was constructed with hitters who have spent their entire careers looking for pitches they can drive.
In 2002, former big league manager Chuck Tanner told Baseball Digest, "If a guy is a .250 hitter, he's going to hit .250. It's as simple as that."
Amaro said in his press conference that the Phillies should have more .300 hitters. But Polanco is the only hitter in the lineup with a .300 average in his career. Jimmy Rollins has a career average of .272 and a career on base percentage of .329. He hit .268 and .338 this season. Shane Victorino has a career marks of .279 and .344. He hit .279 and .355 this season. Carlos Ruiz (.265 and .357 for his career) hit .283 and .371. Hunter Pence has career marks of .292 and .343. In two months with the Phillies, he hit .324 and .394. The three players who underperformed against their career marks were Ibanez, Utley and Ryan Howard. Those also happened to be the three highest paid players in the lineup. The three highest-paid Cardinals -- Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman -- all performed at or above their career marks.
Has Utley's OBP dropped in each of the last three seasons because of his approach? How about Ibanez's? Or have those numbers dropped because Ibanez is now 39, and Utley is now 32, and both of them have battled wear-and-tear injuries since 2009?
It's an important question for a couple of reasons. First, if the Phillies really believe that an improved approach at the plate will bring drastic results, they risk underestimating the need to supplement their existing personnel this offseason. Second, if Manuel and Gross feel pressured into making drastic philosophical changes, they risk compounding the struggles of 2011 by forcing their hitters into an approach they are unable to execute.
The numbers suggest that the Phillies real problem lies not in their performance when they have two strikes or are behind in the count, but in their performance when they are ahead in the count. They suggest the real problem lies not in hitting with men on base, but in reaching base to begin with. They suggest the real problem lies not in the counts when Manuel tells them to swing or take, but in what happens after they swing or take.
I'll throw those numbers at you a little later. I just thought we would start but identifying the two schools of thought.
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@Knebman. Wow, bold and insightful comments, thanks for the objectivity. No one wants to blame umps for failure but they are a factor. I too thought Phils got hosed by the mental game with umps, especially in game 2. A) Lee was thrown off by the zone squeeze forcing him to bring it in to hitting zone or walk guys. And I bet if you asked him what he could improve with a do-over he would say better management of the mental side of that game. He was a rattled by the home plate ump and the cards constant griping. B) LaRussa totally gamed that ump ala Phil Jackson working the refs every year. It works! If I was Charlie I would have immediately jumped out of the dugout as TLR was walking off and told Meals: his pitcher sucks tonight so don't fall for it and stop squeezing my guy. C) Did I mention the Cards constant whining? Tony Plush and Brandon Phillips are no Einsteins but there's a reason they have called out the Cards little girl antics led by TLR, Pujols, Carpenter and Molina. D) Game 4, inning 1 strikeout/throw out of Pence and Howard. Two blown calls with the starter on the ropes - HUGE. Phillies really weak with the 'gamesmanship' aspect, starting with Charlie being all flattered by Tony's charm offensive. Set the tone early by ordering up some chin music - (2008 Myers v. Manny).— mousenuts- I agree about Utley and even though I hate to pick on him right now, the Phillie that really needs to hack at pitch #1 is Ryan Howard. Utley, at least, can spoil pitches and make the pitcher occasionally come to him. Ryan? Never. He just keeps expanding the zone - for a guy who has such enormous talent, it just is excruciating to watch. He is sooo much better than that!— dwp66
- very nicely written
— halincoh - Amaro made his bed, now he must sleep in it, or probably die in it. When searching for a 3rd baseman in 2009, he chose Polanco over Beltre, Ibanez over Holliday, this year Berkman was available in the offseason, but he focused on getting Lee. He kept Rule 5 draft pick Martinez on the roster all season I believe because he thought he was smarter then the other GMs and foresaw Martinez being another Jose Reyes (He definately has the Jose look, but not the bat). He gave Howard that contract till 2016 and now we are stuck with this strike out king, also make you wonder is Ryan was on the juice through 2008 when they started mandatory testing (Once Howard gets healthy I only hope that some American leage team will take in off our hands.)Utley...who the hell could of foreseen his fall. Francisco, had nothing all year then gets a game winner against the Braves at the CBP and the 3 run homer in the playoffs. Gload, ebough said. Schneider and Sardniha were the next best options we had for back-p catcher, oi-vey. Banking on Brown and Francisco to start the season in platoon for RF, ugh. There are others but I am getting tired.
The problem with this team is the fact that these mediocre $$$ players make-up this team, and Amaro was pulling the strings right to the end, which turned into a big noose fitting squarely around all of us fans. Amaro enjoy your bed, you made it.— jeff007 
It is time to make major moves at getting the team younger. That means signing no free agents to contracts that will have them tied up until they reach 34 or older. It is folly to expect that Polanco, Utley, and Howard will not miss significant amounts of the coming season due to injuries. Amaro must plan accordingly.— TennPhan
Comment removed.- This team was built beautifully with strength up the middle, strong pitching and a big power bat at first base. GMs around the league were drooling over this core. But now Chase Utley is the guy not holding up his end of the bargain. Is he a .332 hitter or a .259 hitter? The five consecutive years of decline in his batting average are beyond alarming... To me they signal that it's time for him to go . He's a decent fielder, losing range every year. The team is built for him to be a 3 hole hitter, but you put a .259 hitter in the 3 hole and you're gonna struggle. Cut to the playoffs and we negate our brilliant trading deadline move of bringing in a prototype 5 hitter to protect the "Big Piece", by putting Pence in the 3 hole, because Chase Utley was in a tailspin... Dude had a good series, but he's the problem with this line-up. Re-sign Jimmy, but we've got to move Chase Utely. He is over.— southphillyron
- Anybody having a problem with Chase Utley's approach to hitting has absolutely no clue. Going into this season his lifetime BA was .293, his OBP was .380+ and his BA/RISP was .300.
If anyone on this club understands situational hitting it is Utley and if anyone on this club is a team player it is Utley. He was hitting close to his lifetime stats his first two months back, but faltered badly the last two and came back to life briefly (not his falt it was so brief).
I don't think his knee was acting up (note his ill-advised steal attempt vs Molina), but I think, because his pre-season conditioning was hampered by ailments, he started to wear down.
Also he no longer had the luxury of a feared hitter batting behind him (note Pence walked to get to Howard in game and Carpenter laughing at the pig piece during the playoffs.).
I am not a big Utley fan mostly because he is not a very vocal leader. I don't expect him to be a Rollins who is so opposite no one bothers to listen, but it would be nice to see some emotion --- he almost showed some getting called out in the playoffs on a pitch both up and outside the strike zone.
Hopefully, for the Phillies he returns healthy for 2012. The Phillies go nowhere without him and Galvis anchoring the infield.— TripNines - "The three highest-paid Cardinals -- Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman -- all performed at or above their career marks."
In the 2011 regular season Albert Pujols posted career lows in every batting category except home runs and strike outs.— HeelYes - Murph excellent article on the Phillies woes at the plate. Amaro is unable to speak the truth on his players but as a fan we can. Ryan Howard is a stubborn player. He is above taking the walk or going the other way, until a pitcher has no choice to pitch in area Howard wants.
Utley reminds me of Garciapara injuries have taken away his combination of power/speed. He seems to proud to understand to help our team my OBP needs to be higher than ever. Polanco same thing injuries have taken away his ability. Ibanez in my mind only player who had an attempt at approach, so what do phillies do.
i move Lee to Angels for Aybar/Hunter/Prospect.Next Victorino for a good 3b alex gordon / sokora Closer . Finally in off-season put togetehr a lights out bullpen. Same recipe as 2008 World Series.
Halliday/Hamels/Worley/Blanton/Kendrick
Sokoria/Capps(FA)/Bastardo/Stutes/de frautes/savery
aybar(ss)utley(2b)pence(rf)howard (1B returns)Hunter(CF)Mayberry (LF) gordon(3B)chooch (C) bench - polacnco/hinskie(FA)/Martinez/rowand(FA)/schneider = either another bench player or add to bullpen
— sammybeans - Great analysis as usual David, now it will be interesting to see what RAJ does to give Charlie a few more weapons to work with next year.
Hopefully he can get some good "bang for his buck". Sounds like some Phils fans are already working the "hot stove"— frisch16 - One statistic I would be curious to see is the number of pitches seen in the Phils' players' first at bat of a game. There are far too many nine-up-nine-down beginnings which means essentially, they are playing a 6 inning game against a team that is playing a full nine. Getting to the middle relievers in the fifth inning is far different from getting into the back end of a team's bullpen in the 7th.— gotedge
- There is no question that the Phillies need to change their approach to hitting. Whether the same personnel can accomplish that is the harder question. One key stat is number of pitches per at bat; and without having the documentation in front of me to prove it, my impression is that too many Phils went up to bat hacking, not working deep counts. That they snoozed their way through the last 34 innings of the Cardinal series, with the "regulars" producing only 3 runs in that span (it took a pinch hit 3-run homer to salvage game 3), and very few base runners, was a repeat of what we had seen during many stretches of the regular season. Pretty clearly Raul Ibanez, Placido Polanco, Ryan Howard, and maybe also J-Roll cannot be expected to have the kind of years the team will need to make a run to the WS in 2012. But, replacements out there are few. Dump Rollins and pick up Reyes? Very expensive, and you're lucky to get 80+ games from Reyes. The quality field players just don't appear to be available, even though some teams might want to gamble on picking up Roy Oswalt and/or Joe Blanton, even though both appear well on the downsides of their careers. We appear to be looking at an outfield of Brown, Victorino, and Pence; an infield of ????? at third, Rollins, Utley, and Mayberry; with Ruiz behind the plate. I'd love to see Schneider go, but finding any reserve catcher who will bat higher than .200 is almost impossible. So, given who the personnel is likely to be, the only answer is to adjust the approach of the guys in house; and that is very difficult.— john newlin
- An open letter to RAJ.
Dear Raj, Please fire Manuel and Dubee. Sincerely, a long time Phillies fan and keeen observer of a BS artist.— dedhed - I agree with you — TripNines. You can't knock Chase Utley's approach.
I think he's a personnel problem... He's just not very good anymore.— southphillyron
