Your offseason shopping list
The aftermath of a playoff exit is usually not a good time to gather information. Think about how it felt when your season ended in high school and then multiply it by about a billion and you will be where the Phillies are now. One minute, they are the team with the best record in the major leagues and one of the best rotations in baseball history. The next, the season is over. For the first time since Valentine's Day, there is no tomorrow.
Your offseason shopping list
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The aftermath of a playoff exit is usually not a good time to gather information. Think about how it felt when your season ended in high school and then multiply it by about a billion and you will be where the Phillies are now. One minute, they are the team with the best record in the major leagues and one of the best rotations in baseball history. The next, the season is over. For the first time since Valentine's Day, there is no tomorrow.
Nevertheless, the Phillies offseason strategy needs little clarification. Things got a bit more complicated when Ryan Howard crumpled to the turf while attempting to run out the groundball that ended the NLDS. But the Phillies will need to look for bullpen help and offense.
Here's some answers to the questions they'll face:
1) How long will they be without Ryan Howard?
We won't have a good idea until at least today, when Howard is scheduled to undergo an MRI. The first baseman said last night that doctors think he has a torn Achilles tendon, but recovery time depends on the severity of the tear. Professional athletes who rupture their tendon are usually sidelined around six months. Orioles outfielder Nolan Reimold underwent surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon on Sept. 23, 2009 and was ready to play on Opening Day the following season. But he was barely ready to play, rushing the final stages of his recovery after an injury to Felix Pie. If Howard does have a ruptured tendon, it would likely cut into the offseason training program that he goes through in suburban Tampa each winter. Again, we won't know more until the MRI.
2) What if Howard's recovery does stretch into next season?
If the Phillies had any doubt about devoting some serious consideration toward left field, it would likely be eliminated. The team would have to think about playing John Mayberry Jr. at first. They obviously aren't going to be players for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols. Veterans like Michael Cuddyer and Wilson Betemit leave much to be desired on the defensive end, but they can play first base and outfield along with third base.
3) Wait. . .third base?
It is another position that will have to be considered. Placido Polanco was hampered by injuries for the second straight season. He could require offseason surgery to repair a sports hernia. He struggled down the stretch and in the postseason. At $6.25 million, his salary for next season is higher than you'd like for a part-time player, but it is manageable if the Phillies can find a way to add some on base percentage and power to the position. That being said, there isn't a name free agent out there, especially if Aramis Ramirez exercises his option and stays with the Cubs. Even if he doesn't, the Phillies can't afford the kind of money he would likely require.
4) So, back to left field?
Yep, back to left field. Maybe Howard is back to full strength by the start of next season, or shortly thereafter. But his power and on base numbers and even his RBI total have dropped over the last three seasons. Same goes for Chase Utley at second base. Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence are the only two regulars who are undoubtedly in the prime of their careers. If Jimmy Rollins leaves via free agency, they will already head into next season weaker at one position (Jose Reyes is not an option and Rollins is clearly the second-best available offensive shortstop). If Howard's injury is not a big factor, Mayberry is the best option in left. But he has never played on a regular basis. And heading into a season with him and Domonic Brown as the top two options in left would require a huge leap of faith.
Which is why the Phillies should seriously consider free agency, assuming Amaro can't pull another big trade out of his hat. Nick Swisher could be a free agent if the Yankees decline his option. That isn't a sure thing, but he's an OBP guy who can work a count, something that was noticably missing from the Phillies' line-up during the postseason. Josh Willingham is another player in that mold. Defense is the big issue there, but he isn't replacing a Gold Glove in Ibanez. I wouldn't rule out Ibanez returning at a drastically lower salary and without any guarantee of regular playing time. But his is the one position that can clearly be upgraded through free agency.
Remember when the Cardinals took a chance on Lance Berkman?
5) What about closer?
I get the sense that they view it as their No. 1 priority. As good as Ryan Madson has been, it would be a mistake to pay top dollar for him, assuming top dollar is what Scott Boras will seek. There are a slew of closers available, and with Jose Contreras recovering from elbow surgery the Phillies could be in need of more than one arm. Cost-effectiveness is the key here. After all, Madson blew just one save this year and the Phillies still lost in the first round of the playoffs. They went to Game 6 of the World Series when Brad Lidge had one of the worst years ever out of a closer. Sure, it's an important position. But not important enough that a team should sacrifice the ability to upgrade in another area.
6) What else?
The success of the rotation overshadowed a lot of depth problems, not only in the bullpen, but on the bench. The Phillies simply do not have the young home-grown talent that the Cardinals were able to use to off-set their veteran core. The lack of depth was on display throughout the stretch run in playoffs. The Phillies simply did not have anybody who could play in place of Polanco. Their top left-handed option off the bench was Ross Gload, whose power was sapped by a hip injury. We haven't even mentioned Chase Utley's knee problem. He played all season, but not at the elite level that the Phillies need.
This line-up has reached an age where injuries need to be factored into roster construction. Expecting guys like Polanco and Utley and Rollins to make it through a whole season unscathed borders on fantasy.
So there is your shopping list. It is important to keep in mind that if Cliff Lee protects a 4-0 lead in Game 2, we are not having this conversation, at least not yet. The Phillies built this year's roster to win on pitching, and when that pitching did not perform up to expectations, the line-up could not make up the difference.
One of these years, the Braves are going to get it all together and mount a serious challenge for NL East supremacy. As long as Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels remain healthy, this team should continue to win a lot of games, regardless of the offense. But one serious pitching injury -- or one serious opponent in the playoffs -- could make this year's NLDS disappointment seem mild.
The Phillies are no longer a team that can rely on their ability to crush fastballs and poorly executed offspeed pitches, because they are not crushing those fastballs and poorly executed offspeed pitches like they did in their prime. Witness Utley and Ibanez flying out to the wall on Friday night. Who knows where those balls land a few years ago?
This is not a team in need of an implosion, but it is a team that has not changed its offensive identity nearly as fast as its former identity has changed. They need a hitter or two who can reach base, who can work a count, and they need depth at all positions.
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Poll: Is this Phils' season a failure?
Its funny how short everyone's memories are in this town, Ryan Howard deserves a little more respect than he is getting. Most of the line up did not hit in this series. Think about the first basemen we had over the years, remember Rico, Travis Lee, were spoiled. The Phils don't have another 30 plus homers and 100 plus RBI guy on the team, other than maybe Pence. Be careful of what you ask for. Howard is everyones target because of his salary.- Dom Brown won the Dolly Parton Award by unanimous vote. He will recieve the coveted BBB trophy (BiggestBust in Baseball) at a ceremony at Victoria's Secret in K of P on Feb 30.— NewMick314
- @mackwheaton...exactly how is Mayberry Jr. considered a risk?...If anything, he should be able to play more than his limited 200+ at bats so he can really flourish...or not....Brown could/should be used in a deal to get youth and power for the third base position.... ie.David Wright,Allen Craig— bearsfriend
- Great ideas, these. The Metropolitans will be ready to jump all over a deal to dump David Wright for Dom Brown.
Reality, friend, reality. Check it out some time!— BEMiller - Last night the Phillies became the first team in baseball history to have the best record in baseball 2 consecutive years and failed to make the World Series.— VitoCorleone
Comment removed.- You're kidding about Nick Swisher right? The Phillies don't need another disappearing playoff bat, they have plenty— Will T.
- Swisher's playoff numbers are not good. That is why the yanks would drop him.— mikemaddog
the REAL LOSERS will the network ratings re: who's left playing baseball…
all eyes move to football full time now. baseball plays out the string. Howard IS WAY over paid, he got his big $$ & his trophy wife… he's done unless he gets serious on realizing how to adjust.— tfcino1- Howard's contract is a moot point, only because Puhjols and Fielder will eclipse that number this off-season, which puts Howard's salary right in line. Sorry for the common sense. The fatal flaw with this team is Charlie. He's hit a wall. The team doesn't respond to him anymore. His continued approach with hitting doesn't translate. This isn't the same team from 4 years ago yet their collective approach to hitting is still the same. Having Utley try to steal second last nite takes the bat out of Pence's hands. Green lighting Howard when you need a baserunner is silly. Let's bring in Sandberg and a fresh approach to a stale team.— beegal99
- There are only three players they should worry about. Doc, Hamels and Lee. The rest are up for grabs.— alwaysphil1
- It's a 5 game series anything can happen. Cards are probably in top 20 % of teams certainly capable of winning. Howard's contract possibly Amaro's biggest mistake He signed him as he was the player of the first 3 years. Ryan is not. Still a productive player he has slipped behind other 1B players. Ryan was better when he was driving pitches to left center and not going out of the strike zone. Can Ryan return to where he was. Nobody really knows. Howard not only key player to have poor series. Texiera, Rodriguez just some who struggled. That is what can happen in short series... Where do Phills go now. They have to make strong effort to resign Madson. Rollins shoud be resigned as question to Galvis being ready offensively. Phills have to hope Utley returns close to old form. His speed says he may just need a spring training. Mayberry should be an upside on Raul. Raul had some big hits but finished with under 300 OBP. Oswalt did not have his usual year and unlikely to return at salary. Kendrick is a 500 pitcher but that is what Oswalt was. Polanco strong defensively and if he can get past health issues still productive.— Don w
- A hit, a hit, a palpable hit, but for a hit the series was lost. Hamels and Pence eschew the rest. Howard a metaphor for futility. Dream team? Cream cheese!— pedge
- The Phils need to dump salary and Ryan Howard and sign Albert Pujols.— SplendedSplinter9
- Lee was over-used in meaningless regular season games. We all know our offense is shot- witness last year versus the Giants. The key to this year and next is the starting rotation. Doc and Cole delivered. Lee did not. Oswalt was injured much of the year. I feel good about the starters & assuming Madson is resigned same for the BP. The infield is a mess (all 4 are way past there primes and need to be completely replaced in 12 & 13) I would replace the left side next year and complete the right side in 13.........the OF is solid and I have no worries about Mayberry taking over as every day LF in 2012.— Northcountry
