Your 2013 Opening Day center fielder. . .B.J. Upton?
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Your 2013 Opening Day center fielder. . .B.J. Upton?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
We will not know who the Phillies will target on the center field market until we reach the start of the free agent signing period, when Ruben Amaro Jr. and his front office can get a handle on the asking prices. But one name I have heard mentioned in a positive context several times this season is B.J. Upton. And the more I think about it, the more sense it would make for the Phillies to seriously explore adding him to the fold.
We all remember Upton from the 2008 postseason, when he hit seven home runs in 11 games in the ALDS and ALCS to help propel the Rays into a World Series matchup against the Phillies. In the four years since, Upton has failed to live up to the promise he showed as a 22 and 23-year-old, when he hit .286/.384/.452 (.836 OPS) with 33 home runs in 1,005 at-bats over two seasons. Since the start of the 2009 season, he has posted a battling line of .243/.318/.413 for a .731 OPS that ranks 18th among 25 major league center fielders with at least 1,500 plate appearances. But Upton does possess three qualities that are in short supply on the Phillies roster: speed, right-handed power, and upside.
Upton's 70 home runs since 2009 rank ninth among center fielders. When the Phillies traded away Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, they parted with their two most effective right-handed power hitters, at least as far as everyday players are concerned. They are 18-24 in games against left-handed starters this season. Last year, they were 30-14. In 2010, they were 28-20. In his career, Upton has a .261/.366/.428 line against lefties.
Since 2009, Upton has stolen more bases than Shane Victorino. In fact, his 147 steals rank third among center fielders, trailing Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis. His defense is well-regarded. But it is his upside that I think will intrigue the Phillies most. At 27 years old, he is two years younger than Michael Bourn. He is one year younger than John Mayberry Jr. He would be the second-youngest member of the lineup behind Domonic Brown.
The Phillies' psychology could be affected by something that happened three offseasons ago. After the 2009 season, they had some interest in free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre, who was coming off a five-year stay in Seattle in which he failed to live up to the promise he showed in his 2004 contract year, when he finished second in NL MVP voting, hitting 48 home runs with a 1.017 OPS for the Dodgers. Beltre eventually signed a one-year, $9 million deal with the Red Sox, a gamble that paid off when he parlayed a huge season into a five-year, $80 million contract with the Rangers. Over the last three seasons, Beltre has hit .313/.352/.557 with 90 home runs while playing a premium position. In other words, he would have looked really nice in this Phillies lineup.
That is not to say that Upton is the next Beltre. In Seattle, Beltre was playing for a losing team in a pitcher's ballpark, giving you some reason to think that he might benefit from a change of scenery. He was also hampered by injuries. Upton has played on a contender for most of his career, and his home/road splits are not drastic. Nevertheless, if you compare his numbers from 2009-12 to the ones Beltre posted in his final four seasons in Seattle, they are at least in the same ballpark.
| Player | Years | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | HR | SB/CS |
| Adrian Beltre | 2006-09 | 2409 | .269 | .321 | .450 | .771 | 104 | 84 | 46/11 |
| B.J. Upton | 2009-12 | 2397 | .243 | .318 | .413 | .731 | 102 | 70 | 147/41 |
Again, a lot will come down to asking price. Upton is making $7 million this season. He is still very much in his prime. The Phillies probably wouldn't be the only team thinking that he might benefit from a move to a different city, or a different league, or closer to his native home in eastern Virginia. But watching Beltre thrive these last three years might push them harder in the direction of aggressiveness on another right-handed power bat looking to rediscover the glory of his youth. Just some food for thought.
They can go over the cap for impact bat like Hamilton. And should.
260 20 HR guys like overpriced Swisher, and Willingham/Ross types will be 15 mill a year anyway.
10 mill a year bgets you Vic, maybe, or Pagan,
we need pop, or a new Manager, but apparently Manuel will be back.
midseason lineup/;
Gillies
Utley
Hamilton
Howard
Ruiz/Kratz
Rollins
Brown
Frandsen/Asche
That's a great lineup, c'mon
— WFChamps- Upton has a miserable average and OBP but his defense, power, and speed are things that would be great.
Of course it always comes down to $$ and years. Not too excited about giving Michael Bourn and his 100+ strike outs 5 years and 15 per season.
Angel Pagan is a good name to consider as well.— FABER - Geez Murph, do your research. Upton is 28, not 27. Any upside he has would have to immediately appear to be of any value before he's past the statistical prime most guys hit in their late 20's. I'd take his brother Justin but pass on BJ.
— s - In Tampa, BJ Upton is called ME Upton because of his ME-ME-ME attitude. If Joe Maddon can't get to him, best beware!— Nihilist
- The Red Sox Have so much money this offseason that signing Hamilton will be really hard. They could easily sign the top 3 or 4 free agents.— ronin32
- Sometimes I think Murph is actually a paid shill for the Phillies....paid to test the waters to see how the fan base would react or maybe supply a little mis-direction while Amaro chases someone else. BJ Upton? Really Murph. Really? This makes no sense on so many levels. Where do I start? Many of my fellow posters have listed some very salient points....not the least of which is....do we really need to add another .240 hitting player to this lineup? Does Charlie see something "guru-ish", as Whitey would say, about his swing that he can change and magically over night turn him into a .330/40HR hitting Kirby Puckett where nobody else could? Mayberry's numbers against lefties are actually better.....and if he played a full year who knows? And he's about $10 million dollars a year cheaper! This overpaying of millions for marginal veterans has to stop......c'mon Murph, you can do better than this. Tell the person in the FO who's putting you up to this, it has to stop, that you won't do it anymore!— Mark1npt
- If you give 600 plate appearances to JMJ, your team should lose at least 90 games. — mwcnabb
- Maddon who was voted by the MLB players as the smartest manager, has had Rollins type problems with Upton.— Johnny Callison
- Upton is way overrated. He hits .240 and slugs .400--and strikes out 150 times a year.— dblankj
- Upside yes but i dont think for the price. What will he get 4 yeas 56 million? Also correct me if I am wrong but wasnt Upton the player in Tampa the other year who was not hustling multiple times and got chewed out by Longoria in the dugout and an altercation occured??? Do we want that here? No way. I agree he is intriguing but its not like he can be had for 5 million per year. The more I think about the more I think Bourne is unproven for the $ he will get (boras). He's hitting 220 since the all star break as well. If they break the bank to get Hamilton do it, there is enough payroll creativity to be found (halladay done after 2013 if we want). If not then put Mayberry in center and get some corner outfield studs until Gillies is ready. I dont think we need another 240 hitter who underperforms.— philsfan in the atx
- Upton has a bad attitude...plus he hit a terrible .243....come on, we don't need this stiff.— phil500
- Its too funny how people are in love with Kratz. Dont get me wrong he's a nice guy who is killin it right now but there is a reason the guy is 31 and has never seen the majors till this year.— Drewmcc
- You are missing the point. People love Kratz because is he has been over performing and a great story. He is a perfect fit for a backup catcher even if his offense goes down a bit. Fans are not asking to decide between Kratz and a 10 million a year player. What more do you want from a backup catcher? — philsfan in the atx
- Do not need an attitude problem unless he is MVP caliber. Ergo, let's look elsewhere.
— johnny eagle - Hahaha. Upton has more upside, really, for a guy who has been in a steady decline since 2008? And he's 28 not 27 like somebody mentioned. He's also a malcontent, some people say. Some players take the league by storm, then can't adjust, BJ looks like one. Others are late bloomers, JMJ could be that one.— EL Zorro
