Your 2013 Opening Day center fielder. . .B.J. Upton?
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Your 2013 Opening Day center fielder. . .B.J. Upton?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
We will not know who the Phillies will target on the center field market until we reach the start of the free agent signing period, when Ruben Amaro Jr. and his front office can get a handle on the asking prices. But one name I have heard mentioned in a positive context several times this season is B.J. Upton. And the more I think about it, the more sense it would make for the Phillies to seriously explore adding him to the fold.
We all remember Upton from the 2008 postseason, when he hit seven home runs in 11 games in the ALDS and ALCS to help propel the Rays into a World Series matchup against the Phillies. In the four years since, Upton has failed to live up to the promise he showed as a 22 and 23-year-old, when he hit .286/.384/.452 (.836 OPS) with 33 home runs in 1,005 at-bats over two seasons. Since the start of the 2009 season, he has posted a battling line of .243/.318/.413 for a .731 OPS that ranks 18th among 25 major league center fielders with at least 1,500 plate appearances. But Upton does possess three qualities that are in short supply on the Phillies roster: speed, right-handed power, and upside.
Upton's 70 home runs since 2009 rank ninth among center fielders. When the Phillies traded away Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, they parted with their two most effective right-handed power hitters, at least as far as everyday players are concerned. They are 18-24 in games against left-handed starters this season. Last year, they were 30-14. In 2010, they were 28-20. In his career, Upton has a .261/.366/.428 line against lefties.
Since 2009, Upton has stolen more bases than Shane Victorino. In fact, his 147 steals rank third among center fielders, trailing Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis. His defense is well-regarded. But it is his upside that I think will intrigue the Phillies most. At 27 years old, he is two years younger than Michael Bourn. He is one year younger than John Mayberry Jr. He would be the second-youngest member of the lineup behind Domonic Brown.
The Phillies' psychology could be affected by something that happened three offseasons ago. After the 2009 season, they had some interest in free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre, who was coming off a five-year stay in Seattle in which he failed to live up to the promise he showed in his 2004 contract year, when he finished second in NL MVP voting, hitting 48 home runs with a 1.017 OPS for the Dodgers. Beltre eventually signed a one-year, $9 million deal with the Red Sox, a gamble that paid off when he parlayed a huge season into a five-year, $80 million contract with the Rangers. Over the last three seasons, Beltre has hit .313/.352/.557 with 90 home runs while playing a premium position. In other words, he would have looked really nice in this Phillies lineup.
That is not to say that Upton is the next Beltre. In Seattle, Beltre was playing for a losing team in a pitcher's ballpark, giving you some reason to think that he might benefit from a change of scenery. He was also hampered by injuries. Upton has played on a contender for most of his career, and his home/road splits are not drastic. Nevertheless, if you compare his numbers from 2009-12 to the ones Beltre posted in his final four seasons in Seattle, they are at least in the same ballpark.
| Player | Years | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | HR | SB/CS |
| Adrian Beltre | 2006-09 | 2409 | .269 | .321 | .450 | .771 | 104 | 84 | 46/11 |
| B.J. Upton | 2009-12 | 2397 | .243 | .318 | .413 | .731 | 102 | 70 | 147/41 |
Again, a lot will come down to asking price. Upton is making $7 million this season. He is still very much in his prime. The Phillies probably wouldn't be the only team thinking that he might benefit from a move to a different city, or a different league, or closer to his native home in eastern Virginia. But watching Beltre thrive these last three years might push them harder in the direction of aggressiveness on another right-handed power bat looking to rediscover the glory of his youth. Just some food for thought.
Uh Murph, are you sure you don't mean Justin Upton? He's much better and Arizona is actively trying to get rid of him. I'm confused.— kilo_005- PASS! I don't like BJ Uptons bat or his attitude. Trade prospects to Minny to get Josh Willingham- theres your RH power bat in LF. Platoon D.Brown/Mayberry RF. Sign Michael Bourn who is a great defensive CF and a sorely needed Leadoff Hitter.Trade Papelbon. Sign Madson,Grilli,Adams.And Im good. (HTML deleted)
— argonne - @argonne. Good for90-95 losses — mwcnabb
- we don't need another .245 hitter in our lineup.
I do prefer him to Bourne (not saying much)
I prefer Hamilton and his 45 HRs on a 4 year 100 million deal, not longer.
Mike Adams, Josh Hamilton, Reed Johnson, bring up Gillies and Asche and Ruf mid-season, and we're good to go— WFChamps - They can't afford to spend $20 million a year on Hamilton. They are already spending $20+ each on Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Howard. They need a $10 million guy.— SU_alum
- Hamilton's baggage would greatly increase the cost.— NewMick314
- Just what we need, Ruben to play Yankee GM and overpay for to plug leaks. Any thought of building through the fram Murphy? Nah, who want to watch a young exciting player develop?— wo_fat
- "Nah, who want to watch a young exciting player develop?"
Like who?
— sfactor - Wrong....Upton is a lousy .243 hitter...we have enough outfielders that can't hit..— phil500
- I agree wo-fat, let's see LF = RUF, 3B = Asche and the stud bullpen be Papelbon, Bastardo, and the kids. Brown and Giles.— simplefacts
- I don't really get this article. Last year Murph or another writer on this site touted Michael Cuddyer for the Phils, also from eastern Virinia, since as we all know everyone from eastern Virginia longs to play for the Phillies. Cuddyer of course was willing to look past that to go play in Colorado for a team of no great standing.
I also don't get the comparison with Adrian Beltre. Beltre once put up a great year with the Dodgers, the likes of which Upton has never sniffed. Beltre has been off and on and Upton has not lived up to forecasts. Beltre plays third base while Upton is an outfielder. They're not of the same age and didn 't develop at the same time.
I'll hand it to Murph, they at least play the same sport.— Claudio Vernight - If I'm not mistaken Victorino has better numbers thru the same time frame and is a GG center fielder. Upton is a slacker that had a good run 3 years ago and not since. I'd rather see Mayberry in CF.— sfofan
- Mayberry's numbers are comparable to Upton's this year -- almost identical. And that's with Mayberry not having the benefit of being a starter most of the year. Mayberry has more power. Mayberry's numbers last year (another year of no stability as a starter) were pretty close to BJ's in 2008. So who's to say who really has more upside with these two guys also being about the same age (Mayberry 8 months older). If anything one might say we've seen enough of Upton to assume he had one short period where he showed above average potential and he's done very little since.
I could see Amaro making a mistake on this guy though. And he *could* work out. I just don't see the point. Make some trades and get some youth with real upside in here.— s - Would rather it be Justin Upton, but he's owed an average of $13 million over the next three seasons. Justin's very young, 24, but very pricey. And I think(?) we could do better than BJ Upton.— mike 1717
