Would a trade for Dan Haren make sense for the Phillies?
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Would a trade for Dan Haren make sense for the Phillies?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Three days from now is July 4, which is not only America's birthday, but the day on which Thomas Jefferson and John Adams passed away. I mention this mostly to impress you with my vast historical knowledge, but also because if July 4 is three days away, then that makes today July 1, which for me is the Memorial Day of the Major League Baseball trade season. After Memorial Day, you can wear white, and after July 1, you can talk seriously about prospective trades. I don't know why the first rule exists, and if anyone can provide a clue, please do, because I just wasted 15 minutes of valuable time trying to find the answer. The second rule exists mostly because I just made it, but also because it isn't until July that we really have a good idea of who the buyers and sellers will be. The White Sox, for example, might've been sellers a few weeks ago. Now, they are in the thick of the AL Central race.
But right now, we have a pretty clear idea of the identity of the Phillies' needs, and the identity of the teams that will be stripping themselves down and selling off their parts.
Over the next couple days, we'll try as best we can to set up the various aspects of the trade market. First, we'll break down the Phillies' farm system, separating the prospects from the non-prospects and grouping them into several different categories. Later, we'll break down the players around baseball who could become targets for the Phils. And, finally, we'll do a completely unscientific projection of which prospects might net which players.
But first, we'll explain why a trade for Dan Haren just might make some sense for the Phillies, even though they traded away a better pitcher in the offseason.
We'll do this first because ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported today that the Phillies have the Diamondbacks' righthander on their radar, and I've received several emails on the subject.
As a disclaimer, the only place Haren and the Phillies have been linked thus far is on Crasnick's Twitter account. But it's worth looking at:
1) I know what you're thinking: How can Ruben Amaro Jr. look his fan base in the eye and tell them he is trying to trade for a starting pitcher when, back in December, he traded away a guy who at the moment has registered as many complete games (5) as he has issued walks (5) and is currently 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA while averaging eight innings per start? It isn't like the Phillies' current situation came out of the blue: in each of the last three seasons, they've dealt with injuries in their rotation and have looked to add a starter at the trade deadline, and when Lee was traded away, many people pointed out that there was a good chance they would end up right back where they started, needing to add an arm. Injuries happen. And, this season, they've happened. I don't pretend to understand the rationale behind the Lee deal. But I do know that Amaro has a boss, and chain of command is a pretty powerful thing, and for whatever reason somebody, or a group of somebodies, in the Phillies organization decided that they just couldn't keep Lee.
2) So if they couldn't keep Lee, how can they justify trading for a starter? If we adhere to the Phillies' explanation for the trade, that the farm system was in dire need of some re-inforcements, it will be tough to find basis for that justification. After all, to land a pitcher, a team must part with prospects. And dealing prospects eight months after you acquired them would seem to defeat the purpose of the original acquisition.
Except in two circumstances. One, the Phillies like the prospects they acquired in December better than the ones they think they can ship out this July. Or, two, the Phillies think they can land more long-term stability than Lee would have offered. The first situation could prove true if the Phillies are targeting a middle-of-the-rotation guy like Joe Blanton a couple of years ago.
The second situation could prove true in Haren's case. . .
3) Nobody is going to argue that a pitcher like Dan Haren will give the Phillies a better chance to win this season than Cliff Lee would have. So it's best to forget about Lee, and chalk any disagreement over the December trade to philosophical differences. The Phillies have acted, and even spoken, in a manner that spells out their strategy -- a good chance to win over several seasons is better than a great chance to win in one season.
The Phillies decided they couldn't afford to give both Halladay and Lee long-term deals worth $20 million or more annually. You might argue that they could have afforded it by declining to give Ryan Howard a $25-million-a-year contract extension. But again, those are philosophical differences.
They might very well decide, however, that they can afford to pay Halladay $20 million per year, and another pitcher $13.33 million per year, which is what Haren is scheduled to make through 2013 ($12.75 mil in 2011-12, and a $15.5 million option in 2013).
In terms of sheer bang-for-buck Haren's contract seems club-friendly given his track record. From 2005-09, he never made less then 33 starts in a season, and he posted a 3.48 ERA while striking out 7.8 batters-per-nine and walking 1.9 batters per nine. He has struggled this season, going 7-6 with a 4.56 ERA and allowing 1.7 home-runs-per-nine. But he is only 29 years old, and he plays in a losing atmosphere, and while he is giving up slightly more fly balls this season, his strikeout and walk rates remain stellar. There is plenty of reason to believe he is a pitcher who might benefit from a change-of-scenery, both figuratively and, with regards to the paper-thin air in Airzona, literally.
Maybe the Phillies look at the next few years, envision a 4H-sponsored rotation of Halladay, Haren, Hamels, Happ and Blanton and think that they can prolong their window with several seasons of starting pitching dominance. They then decide that, hey, maybe we don't really need to replenish the farm system right now.
4) But. . .
Not only would trading for a guy like Haren put a halt to the current Prospect Replinishment Program, it would almost certainly wipe out whatever reserves the Phillies had before they traded Cliff Lee.
While there are an abundance of starting pitchers who figure to be available, there are also an abundance of teams looking for those pitchers.
The Phillies wouldn't trade Domonic Brown last season, and they almost certainly will not trade him this season. But he is the Phillies' one true blue-chip prospect playing above Class A, and it is hard to imagine a deal like this getting done without such a player.
5) A lot of things would have to happen for the Phillies to land Haren. First, other clubs would have to be scared away by his remaining guaranteed money and choose instead to focus on players like Lee or the Cubs' Ted Lilly, both of whom will be free agents after this season. This would then drive down the price for Haren. Because, let's face it, almost every potential suitor is in a better position to offer an attractive package than the Phillies, who have shipped away most of their top prospects over the last year. Second, the Diamondbacks would have to place a high value on some Phillies prospects who aren't Domonic Brown. Third, the Phillies would have to be willing to part with those prospects.
Could it happen? Sure.
Will it happen? Unlikely at this point.
But it's July 1, which means we can talk about it.
Well, we're back to the Cliff Lee scenario, if Ruben wants to inject new life into this team with a great high, re-acquire Lee and watch them take off on adrenaline of knowing they're going for it. They should look into Hank Blalock for 3b, I think in the Bank, he'd come back to life with his bat, he's still young enough to really contribute. And it's someone you can keep to help fortify the bench when and if Utley and Polanco return this season.— jimvro- XMikelaw19 - you said it all.— Joe Lis lives
- Zorro ... Nick Hernandez? That's comical. He's an interesting prospect, but the Phillies probably have 15 or 20 pitchers in the system who are more highly regarded than him. If you make the likes of Nick Hernandez untouchable, you will never, ever make a trade.— GoPhilsGo
- again why is juan castro a philly and when will they relize that ibmez is washed up either platoon him and fransico or put on waivers hope for a taker and bring up brown we are the only team that doesnt play young guys hell look at utley and howard they wer 26 27 when they became everyday players look around the league. get castro outof here.— phillyboyda1
- The real issue now is Dobbs and a closer.— psuwelsh
- Minor League Untouchables: Brown, Cosart, Singleton.— Philly4fanDoc
- Murph great piece. Brown will not be moved. We have 2 OF spots that need filling at a cheap price in the next 2 years. Cosart will stay as he will be a top 25 prospect by year end. We do have many and I mean many prospects at Clearwater and Lakewood that might fit the bill. 1/2 the team at Lakewood may have to go but for Haren it might be worth it— 1flyfan
- 2005 it was, just after wade traded polanco to detroit, amaro was interviewed during a game. amaro said what a great trade it was, the phillies really got what they wanted/needed (and what was that guy's name again? the one in prison somewhere?). until that moment, i'd thought amaro was a pretty sharp dude. but his blatant insincerity as he sucked up to wade, his haughty i-can-pull-the-wool-over-you-dummy-fans'-eyes attitude, that oozed through, made me see him for what he is: an arrogant incompetent. i wouldn't trust him to hold my dollar watch while i went in for a swim. he has ruined this club. i cry for my beloved phillies. and those writers who still, still, give forth kind words for him? (i.e. fat boy - he who predicted 98 wins and a ws victory - who praised him to the skies for the lee trade.) they belong in the same cell as whatsisname, the relief pitcher we got from detroit.— kiwi
- Utley is out for eight weeks, Polanco is on the shelf for 3-4 weeks ... Save your bullets for 2011.— PhightinPhil
- Mike l...you didn't follow the offseason did you? The Halladay deal was in place before Blanton was offered arbitration and then signed to an extension. Amaro tried shopping Blanton but couldn't find anyone to give him the prospects the teams was looking for...had he found something Blanton would be gone and Lee would still be here. When they found no takers for Blanton they gambled, miscalculated and sent Lee to Seattle for marginal prospects (If the prospects were that good to begin with why didn't they just work a three-team deal of sending Lee to seattle and their players to Toronto for Halladay?). It was a bad move, and only partly about money. The PHillies did not want to pay Lee what he wants---and may get. But for one year the cost was negligible for them (Blanton's making 7Mill, Lee 9mill). They chose to trade Lee instead of keeping him and getting two draft picks because that's the money they didn't want to pay---bonus money. I think they have a chance at either Lee or Haren---I'm not sure who'd I'd rather have long-term. Lee makes them better now...Haren makes them better over the next 3-4 years when Lee is pitching for the Rangers/Angels. It will be an interesting July for baseball. Hopefully the Phillies get something. I don't think they need it to win the division or get to the World Series---I know, I know the team's racked with injuries, been playing terribly, but I said at the beginning of the year the team is so good they could sleepwalk through the National league and nothing has changed. Come October the Phillies will be returning to Yankee Stadium and this time they're going to walk away with the title---with or without Lee/Haren. But it gives them a much better shot...— Eilex826
- cliff lee's cost this year would have been 13 mil and they said they couldn't do it but they turn around and give chunky-boy joe 10.5,....even doo-doo-fresh can do the math on that one and moyer would have come off the books after this year as well,...convaluted explanation that just comes back to money— SyddBarrett
- you can't sit there and say what if this and what if that,....you have to take each current situation on face value and if you are geuine with your fanbase and truthful,...go get Harren and Kelly Johnson in a package deal if they are in fact available and if it costs you victorino or happ or both in the package then so be it,..but git er dunn— SyddBarrett
Howard is worth every penny. Cliff Lee pussied out in game four of the World Series and would not take the ball on short rest. With Lee, the Phillies accomplished nothing. Hamels was World Series MVP in 2008, remember that! A return to form for Hamels and a healthy Happ will make all the starting pitching woes go away. The problem right now is missing Utley for 2 months, and an unreliable bullpen.- John Adams last words: "Thomas Jefferson still lives."— lenny429
- Living here in Phoenix, it is obvious that DBacks are gonna make some big moves. Send D. Brown here for Haren and Kelly Johnson. That move might just be enough to get Phils back on top.— hbbfam
