Would a trade for Dan Haren make sense for the Phillies?
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Would a trade for Dan Haren make sense for the Phillies?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Three days from now is July 4, which is not only America's birthday, but the day on which Thomas Jefferson and John Adams passed away. I mention this mostly to impress you with my vast historical knowledge, but also because if July 4 is three days away, then that makes today July 1, which for me is the Memorial Day of the Major League Baseball trade season. After Memorial Day, you can wear white, and after July 1, you can talk seriously about prospective trades. I don't know why the first rule exists, and if anyone can provide a clue, please do, because I just wasted 15 minutes of valuable time trying to find the answer. The second rule exists mostly because I just made it, but also because it isn't until July that we really have a good idea of who the buyers and sellers will be. The White Sox, for example, might've been sellers a few weeks ago. Now, they are in the thick of the AL Central race.
But right now, we have a pretty clear idea of the identity of the Phillies' needs, and the identity of the teams that will be stripping themselves down and selling off their parts.
Over the next couple days, we'll try as best we can to set up the various aspects of the trade market. First, we'll break down the Phillies' farm system, separating the prospects from the non-prospects and grouping them into several different categories. Later, we'll break down the players around baseball who could become targets for the Phils. And, finally, we'll do a completely unscientific projection of which prospects might net which players.
But first, we'll explain why a trade for Dan Haren just might make some sense for the Phillies, even though they traded away a better pitcher in the offseason.
We'll do this first because ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported today that the Phillies have the Diamondbacks' righthander on their radar, and I've received several emails on the subject.
As a disclaimer, the only place Haren and the Phillies have been linked thus far is on Crasnick's Twitter account. But it's worth looking at:
1) I know what you're thinking: How can Ruben Amaro Jr. look his fan base in the eye and tell them he is trying to trade for a starting pitcher when, back in December, he traded away a guy who at the moment has registered as many complete games (5) as he has issued walks (5) and is currently 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA while averaging eight innings per start? It isn't like the Phillies' current situation came out of the blue: in each of the last three seasons, they've dealt with injuries in their rotation and have looked to add a starter at the trade deadline, and when Lee was traded away, many people pointed out that there was a good chance they would end up right back where they started, needing to add an arm. Injuries happen. And, this season, they've happened. I don't pretend to understand the rationale behind the Lee deal. But I do know that Amaro has a boss, and chain of command is a pretty powerful thing, and for whatever reason somebody, or a group of somebodies, in the Phillies organization decided that they just couldn't keep Lee.
2) So if they couldn't keep Lee, how can they justify trading for a starter? If we adhere to the Phillies' explanation for the trade, that the farm system was in dire need of some re-inforcements, it will be tough to find basis for that justification. After all, to land a pitcher, a team must part with prospects. And dealing prospects eight months after you acquired them would seem to defeat the purpose of the original acquisition.
Except in two circumstances. One, the Phillies like the prospects they acquired in December better than the ones they think they can ship out this July. Or, two, the Phillies think they can land more long-term stability than Lee would have offered. The first situation could prove true if the Phillies are targeting a middle-of-the-rotation guy like Joe Blanton a couple of years ago.
The second situation could prove true in Haren's case. . .
3) Nobody is going to argue that a pitcher like Dan Haren will give the Phillies a better chance to win this season than Cliff Lee would have. So it's best to forget about Lee, and chalk any disagreement over the December trade to philosophical differences. The Phillies have acted, and even spoken, in a manner that spells out their strategy -- a good chance to win over several seasons is better than a great chance to win in one season.
The Phillies decided they couldn't afford to give both Halladay and Lee long-term deals worth $20 million or more annually. You might argue that they could have afforded it by declining to give Ryan Howard a $25-million-a-year contract extension. But again, those are philosophical differences.
They might very well decide, however, that they can afford to pay Halladay $20 million per year, and another pitcher $13.33 million per year, which is what Haren is scheduled to make through 2013 ($12.75 mil in 2011-12, and a $15.5 million option in 2013).
In terms of sheer bang-for-buck Haren's contract seems club-friendly given his track record. From 2005-09, he never made less then 33 starts in a season, and he posted a 3.48 ERA while striking out 7.8 batters-per-nine and walking 1.9 batters per nine. He has struggled this season, going 7-6 with a 4.56 ERA and allowing 1.7 home-runs-per-nine. But he is only 29 years old, and he plays in a losing atmosphere, and while he is giving up slightly more fly balls this season, his strikeout and walk rates remain stellar. There is plenty of reason to believe he is a pitcher who might benefit from a change-of-scenery, both figuratively and, with regards to the paper-thin air in Airzona, literally.
Maybe the Phillies look at the next few years, envision a 4H-sponsored rotation of Halladay, Haren, Hamels, Happ and Blanton and think that they can prolong their window with several seasons of starting pitching dominance. They then decide that, hey, maybe we don't really need to replenish the farm system right now.
4) But. . .
Not only would trading for a guy like Haren put a halt to the current Prospect Replinishment Program, it would almost certainly wipe out whatever reserves the Phillies had before they traded Cliff Lee.
While there are an abundance of starting pitchers who figure to be available, there are also an abundance of teams looking for those pitchers.
The Phillies wouldn't trade Domonic Brown last season, and they almost certainly will not trade him this season. But he is the Phillies' one true blue-chip prospect playing above Class A, and it is hard to imagine a deal like this getting done without such a player.
5) A lot of things would have to happen for the Phillies to land Haren. First, other clubs would have to be scared away by his remaining guaranteed money and choose instead to focus on players like Lee or the Cubs' Ted Lilly, both of whom will be free agents after this season. This would then drive down the price for Haren. Because, let's face it, almost every potential suitor is in a better position to offer an attractive package than the Phillies, who have shipped away most of their top prospects over the last year. Second, the Diamondbacks would have to place a high value on some Phillies prospects who aren't Domonic Brown. Third, the Phillies would have to be willing to part with those prospects.
Could it happen? Sure.
Will it happen? Unlikely at this point.
But it's July 1, which means we can talk about it.
It will be Wigginton and Guthrie from Baltimore. Heard it here first.— UncleEddie- The fact that Adams & Jefferson died on July 4th isn't that interesting...that they died on the same July 4th is.— gomo
- Mackey Sasser and Archi Cianfrocco are on the radar... now theres the real scoop— CrayzeeGuy
- wigginton yes, but Guthrie is worse than Kendrick. As for Haren, his stats are normally great in the first half and then fall off in the second (3.31 first half vs 4.21 second half career), but he's got a 4.60 e.r.a over his last 32 starts...that is cause for concern.. you cant trade Dom Brown for him as you cant afford Haren and to re-sign Werth..dont think the D-backs take Happ and Singleton..and dont dream about Hamels for Haren... so hard for me to see that happening..— jim715
- I would do dom brown for haren. haren is underrated, his underlying stats are great. i love dom and its tough to make that move but WE HAVE THE OLDEST TEAM IN BASEBALL by average age per plate appearance and per inning. our time to win is NOW. dom brown, although he is as close to a sure thing as the minors is, has not played in a major league game. haren has and has dominated. he is much better than you would think.— bumbaca90
- Pre-08 Haren was hands down viewed better than Lee, rather pay him $12-14m than Lee $20m— davi
- I have always liked Haren, a real tough competitor, but the Phillies will never add that kind of salary to their $143 million payroll; they will try to piece it together until Utley returns, looking to bring up Cody Ransom, Drew Carpenter or Scott Mathieson, and John Mayberry, and hoping that Happ, Polanco, and Madson return soon. They will keep Brown at Lehigh and move Matt Rizzotti from Reading to Lehigh, but since he plays first base, he will not be brought up to the major-league club but will be showcased at AAA. Obviously, the three lower minor league "prospects" they received from Seattle for Lee to "restock" the farm will not be in demand, either by the Phillies or other teams.— chuckw
- Would we have to trade for a starter if Ruben and the owners didn't give Cliff Lee away???? The best trade for the Phillies would be to give Ruben Wade away for free. Then convince the owners to sell to a group that would go above and beyond to win. This team didn't learn that you need top notch pitching to win the WS?? So they give our best pitcher away and don't pick up a quality closer. All bc of $$$$$$$$$$$$$!!! There are no "philisophical differences" just smoke and mirrors to try and conceal the fact they won't pay to win!!!!!! Now your going to suggest giving away prospects for a 2nd tier pitcher? Nice......— philscheapowners
- The phillies season ended when cliff lee arrived in seattle on december 16th. Sorry just facts.— xMikelaw19
- Good insight Gomo. Boy Ruben you really have us in a mess. Sometimes the fans are correct.
- Trade Happ if he comes back reasonably healthy. His value is on the decline.— clunkerlane
- xMikelaw 1, you said it, hit the nail on the head! Should have never traded Lee -- major mistake! I think that trade has effected the team both on & off the field - then they go give Howard $25M? Dopes! Didn't they see that the Yankees couldn't win with all of their high priced players until they got some pitching!! The window for winning is so small when you have the chance you gotta go for it. Lee not only would have helped the starting rotation - with he & Doc going deep into starts - it would have helped the bullpen. They wouldn't pay Lee $9M but they'll pay Haren $12M?? not gonna happen!— ChangeISNeeded
- The move was (& yes i was saying this 8 months ago) Keep Cliff Lee & then shop Hamels for Halladay. Hamels being a "young lefty" w/ only 1 bad year probably would've gotten it done (or Hamels + Taylor) Then you'd have (at least for this year ) Halladay & Lee and would have Klye Drabek to bring up for 2011. Ruben botched this. Making 2 BIG trades, literally giving away the farm for 1 guy. Now we're supposed to trade the last prospect we have left for Haren? What a mess.— Kennedy
- Why would they trade Brown for Haren, when they refused to include him for both Halladay and Lee last year? I would keep Singleton, Brown and Cosart and Nick Hernandez (this kid will be special), and put the rest of the names on a hat and let Arizona pick a few, and include Kendrick also.— EL Zorro
- LOL Brown is going no where. It would take 2 Dan Harens straight up for Brown right now. He will be the consensus #1 prospect in baseball going into 2011. If a deal goes through, Cosart is going to have to be the big piece with someone like Gose, Garcia, Rizzoti, and a Happ or Kendrick.— melan85
