A Shane Victorino reunion just might make sense for the Phillies
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
A Shane Victorino reunion just might make sense for the Phillies
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
As we write in today's Daily News, the Phillies face a fascinating conundrum with their situation in center field. They have money to spend, and they have an obvious place to spend it. But they do not have limitless money. And they have enough needs outside of center field that paying B.J. Upton $75 million over five years might not be the wisest move. Especially since there are plenty of potentially cheaper options. But when you look at those potentially cheaper options, you can't ignore the following batting line from the 2012 season:
.255 batting average, .321 on base percentage, .383 slugging percentage, 11 home runs, 39-of-45 stolen bases.
Those were Shane Victorino's numbers in 2012. It was by far his worst season since he moved into a full-time role for the Phillies five years ago. But it also wasn't much different from the seasons that are the norm for players whose names have been bandied about as potential fits for the Phillies.
Angel Pagan's averages over the last three years: .281/.334/.415, 9 home runs, 33-of-41 stolen bases.
Denard Span's averages over the last three years: .271/.334/.367, 3 home runs, 16-of-20 stolen bases.
Michael Bourn's averages over the last three years: .279/.346/.376, 4 home runs, 52-of-65 stolen bases.
Again, those are three-year averages compared to Victorino's worst single season. Victorino's averages over the last three years are .264/.334/.432, 15 home runs, 31-of-36 stolen bases.
So that is the interesting part. The Phillies have been longing to alter the complexion of their lineup for the past couple of years. They have an opportunity to do so this offseason. And the guy who makes the most sense just might be the guy they traded away five months ago in what was the presumed start of the facelift.
Do I think the Phillies will pursue Victorino? No. I really don't. Frankly, I think Pagan makes the most sense for this offense. He has had one subpar season in four years as a regular, and even in that bad season he put up numbers that are the norm for Denard Span. I keep mentioning span because some of the national insiders keep mentioning him as a potential trade candidate. But I'm not a huge fan. For starters, he is left-handed, but he has posted an OBP of under .329 in each of the last three seasons. He also has a career .820 OPS at home in Minnesota compared with a .679 mark on the road. He is a good defender. I'm just not sure he improves the lineup to the point where it would be worth the young talent it would likely take to acquire him.
I'd prefer Dexter Fowler from the Rockies mostly because he is two years younger and has shown signs of continuing improvement, particularly against right-handed pitching (he is a left-handed hitter). He also has more power. But his numbers are likely inflated by Coors Field, whose spacious outfield is perfect for his game. Fowler has a career .295/.395/.487 batting line at home compared with .248/.331/.367 line on the road. But if the talent required to acquire him is similar to what it would take to land Span, I think Fowler is the much better fit.
Another guy who might be wise to explore is the White Sox's Alejandro de Aza, who has now put together two straight solid seasons in center field for Chicago. His home/road splits are even, he isn't awful against lefties, and he has a .281/.349/.409 line in 592 plate appearances as a leadoff hitter.
I'm not sure that the White Sox would be inclined to trade de Aza, who is arbitration-eligible for the first time, but CSNChicago.com's Dan Hayes mentions him as one of four players who the Sox could look to deal.
But again, the price is the thing.
Is Angel Pagan worth $10 million per year for his 31, 32, and 33-year-old seasons? He was traded for Andres Torres last year after facing the potential of being non-tendered by the Mets. Baseball is one of the few businesses in the world where buying high seems to be standard operating procedure.
Which is why Victorino might actually represent the best value on the market. If he is the last center field domino to fall and he can be had for far less Pagan, maybe the move that most improves the Phillies is to sign their old friend to play center field and then take a risk at third base with Kevin Youkilis, or cobble together an offer that the Padres can't refuse (minus the horse head) for Chase Headley. Or maybe attempt a deal for Jed Lowrie and try him at third base, figuring that at the worst you'd have infield depth for potential injuries to Chase Utley and/or Jimmy Rollins. And then maybe use the money you saved in center field to sign Nick Swisher to a three-year, contract worth $12 to $15 million per season.
The Phillies have too many holes to paint themselves into a corner by falling in or out of love with one particular player. They should be value shoppers at this point. It just so happens that the best value in center field could be Victorino.
Angel Pagan is our man. And Josh Hamilton too and move him to RF. Ruf in LF.— Dan in Holmesburg- Bring back Victorino! He's an asset to the community.— MightJoe59
- Pagan is a no brainer.— jimmymack
Pagan would be fine, but so would Fowler or Peter Bourjos, who can catch the ball and run -- and even hit, when he gets a chance to play regularly.- Fowler is a switch-hitter!— billchuck
- None of the above mentioned guys in CF will make this a better team. When you factor in the continued regression of Howard, Utley, and Rollins in tandem with Ruiz (minus the Adderall) and the black holes at 3B and the corner OF spots, all you're left with is another third place finish.— Jeff Dowder
- I think if they can get Pagan or Victorino on a 1-2 year deal until Gilles is ready, they should do it. I agree that there aren't any difference makers in the CF market this year, but they need to formulate a plan to bridge things from the old crew (Halladay, Utley, Howard, Rollins, Victorino, Ruiz) to the new guys (Ruf, Pettibone, May, Hernandez, Asche, Gilles, Joseph, etc). There is no point in overspending (and losing the draft pick) on someone that won't be a difference maker. The only one that could fit that is Hamilton and with him being left handed and his off the field issues, I would take a pass on him.— sjuhawk416
- Jacoby Ellsbury.— PhightinPhil
- Would be a great move by Dumb Rube. — tobyjoe
- If the Phils sign Hamilton, then I would be happy with Victorino returning in center but the Phils would need the right handed pop that youkilis could provide at 3B.
I think the Phils are going to discover that the right handed alternatives to Hamilton like Swisher and Ross are going to be paid or overpaid by the Red Sox and signs are that Cuddyer will come at a heavy cost in trade. The Phils first (not highest)priority should be Youkilis cause he could be the only right handed power hitter available to them this off season. 2 year deal.— Claudio Vernight - Noooooooooooooooooooo!!!!
We've been there, done that with Shane! I'd love Josh Hamilton, but he's not a perfect fit. He's another lefty. But then again, I wouldn't complain either if we got him. I'd prefer Bourn.— njd3x3x3xchamps - Hamilton will be the only centerfield free agent to get more money than Upton. In fact both of them are better suited to be corner outfielders. Neither one of them is as good defensively as Bourn or Victorino. I
I would guess Bourn will get north of $10m a year - Vic should be south of $10m a year.
Should the difference be over a few million a year, why not stay with Victorino.
The difference in their talents is not that great.
Still think we need a third baseman.
Not concerned about an 8th inning guy. One of those young flamethrowers should grow into the position.— candidly - yes victorino,,,,get him....but must bat righthanded only.— Lew Klein
- Victorino is a much more skilled hitter than Pagan. Also, Victorino has a nasty fielding percentage.
Which one would I rather have? Hard to say...Victorino and Cliff apparently didn't get along. He also didn't get along with Wigginton (but who cares, Wigginton sucks and he's gone).
I guess I'd rather have Victorino back. Defense should be our first priority and his lifetime fielding percentage is a little higher than even Michael Bourn's.
::sigh:: I guess bring him back.— Kempatsu - If they're not going after Josh Hamilton, then get Victorino and spend the money on pitching.— Boru
