Will lack of major-league-ready talent hurt Phillies?
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Will lack of major-league-ready talent hurt Phillies?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
It is fun to dream, assuming you haven't ingested a substantial quantity of B vitamins before doing so. And right now, REM for Phillies fans brings images of Megan Fox and Roy Halladay. Unfortunately, at this point in time, both of them are still fantasies.
Yesterday, we broke down what it might take to swing a deal with the Blue Jays for Halladay, the ace righthander who apparently available for trade.
Today, let's inject a little more reality to the situation, and start by taking a look at a Triple-A baseball game last night between the Pawtucket Red Sox and the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. The game featured both organization's most major-league ready pitching prospects. For the Red Sox, that meant Clay Buchholz, a 24-year-old righthander. For the Phillies, that meant Carlos Carrasco, a 22-year-old righthander.
Buchholz:
- Has already made 18 big league starts.
- Threw a no-hitter in his second big league game.
- Is considered one of the top prospects in the game, although he struggled mightily last season, posting an ERA of over 6.00 in 15 big league starts.
Carrasco:
- Has yet to make his big league debut.
- Is nearly a year younger than Buccholz was when he made his big league debut, but has also been far less consistent throughout the first five years of his career.
- Has has had some brilliant outings this season, he has also had some stinkers, and is currently 5-8 with a 5.06 ERA.
In the showdown between the PawSox and the LVIPigs, Carrasco allowed six runs on three hits and six walks in four innings. Buchholz, meanwhile, allowed two runs on four hits and four walks in six innings and lowered his ERA to 2.11.
The point I am trying to illustrate is that, regardless of how much the Phillies' minor league depth has improved over the past few years, they still could find themselves out-matched in a bidding war for the services of a player like Halladay. While they have plenty of talent at the lower levels of their system, they are also glaringly devoid of top-shelf major-league ready talent. Think about it -- with Raul Ibanez and Brett Myers on the disabled list, now should be the perfect time for a Phillies prospect to get his chance. Yet veteran Rodrigo Lopez got the call-up for the rotation, and Greg Dobbs is seeing significant action in left.
This is not in any way an indictment of the Phils' scouting department. Look at all of the home grown talent they currently have on the roster. But the fact remains, if the Blue Jays are looking for at least one player who can make an impact in the majors within the next year, the Phillies can't guarantee them much.
This is why their bid for C.C. Sabathia fell short last season. The Indians wanted a guy like Matt LaPorta, who was knocking on the door of the majors.
Will it hurt them again?
If the Red Sox and Yankees decide they want Halladay, it could. In addition to Buccholz, the Red Sox have 22-year-old righthander Michael Bowden, a marquee pitching prospect who is 3-4 with a 3.31 ERA at Triple-A Pawtucket. The Yankees, meanwhile, have pitching prospects Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, both of whom have big league experience (Kennedy has been sidelined for two months but is starting to work his way back from an aneurysm). The Yanks also have 22-year-old Austin Jackson, an outfielder who is hitting .317 with 14 stolen bases at Triple-A Scranton Wilkes Barre and is ranked No. 36 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list.
The good news is that the Yankees signed Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte to contracts this offseason, and the Red Sox already had so much pitching that they were rumored to be looking to deal some of it away (more good news is that both play with Toronto in the AL East, although that might not be a deal breaker).
The bad news is that they are the Yankees and the Red Sox, and just because the United States and the U.S.S.R. had more nuclear weapons than any one else in the world didn't stop them from trying to obtain more. Either team could overwhelm the Blue Jays with an offer that the Phillies simply can't match.
But if Toronto doesn't insist on major-league ready talent, or if their scouts like some of the Phillies talent that is close (Whether it is Carrasco or catcher Lou Marson or short stop Jason Donald), or if the Phillies can get creative and involve another club, a deal could get done.
I'd put the Phillies odds at landing Halladay better than they were at landing Sabathia last season. But, as I pointed out yesterday, I'd also put the asking price significantly higher.
Don't think sending Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Jason Donald north of the border for Halladay would be worth it? That might be the type of deal it would take. So keep that in mind.
Maddy 44 - It's "cinch" not "sinch." Phonetics.— lgroniko
First of all, I have a hard time believing Toronto trades Halladay to a team in the AL East. Secondly, the Yankees prospects stink, unless Joba is included in the deal. The Redsox have better prospects to offer (i give you that), but the Yankees prospects (the ones you mentioned) are horrible. The Yankees farm system is one of the worst in baseball. And by the way, Happ would be included in the deal and last I checked he has ML experience...— Discostu- I would give up any package that included either Drabek or Taylor, but not both. Throw in Kendrick, Marson, Donald, whoever to go with ONE of our two top prospects. And I would be STOKED if we got Halladay. I heard mention that the Mets didn't win the Series by getting Santana. Well, the Phils are not the Mets. I would all but guarantee another parade this year or next with Halladay in tow. But, if we don't get Halladay, I'm not gonna cry about it either. Last year we got Blanton, not Sabathia. And I distinctly remember sprinting to Broad St. on a cold October night!!
- hegzatsc, that's why I think they would prefer Brown over Taylor, because Taylor should be ready in a year or two. What they're going to do with him? Brown is further along, so could spend a few years in the minors while they solve the outfield situation. Wells has a huge contract (5 years left @ 20 mil per) and will be hard to move. They also have Adam Lind, who should be in the All Star game this year and is pretty young.— EL Zorro
- some good points on here..hoping that the yanks and sox are out of this bc competing in AL East is a very valid point. I also believe besides Myers & Eaton the Phils have Thomes contract off the books next year too. Its hard to say not to do this deal with whatever it takes..I believe they would somehow sign Holiday long term if they got him. That being said I really would like to see Drabek stay put. If they would go for it give them Brown(fits well with their time frame vs Taylor and how close he is to being ready), Knapp, Carrasco, Donald, Marson. If that would get it done do it in a heartbeat..I really want to see the deal not include Taylor and Drabek but u gotta do what ya gotta do— philsfan in the atx
- People, The Jays play in the AL where they have this stupid rule called the DH. You can carry 4 OF and have on DH,. Also, as stated they can flip one for a player they want/need right now. We shouldn't care what teh jays will or won't do with the players they get, only that we give up as little as possible while still getting Halalday. He would be the icing on our cake.— fan_in_jerusalem
- It does give me goosebumps to think of our playoff starting rotation. Halladay, Cole, Happ (or Blanton depending on whos pitching better)..Is there a better playoff rotation besides Boston? I wouldnt put another team ahead of that..ok throw in Chris Wheeler to get this deal done— philsfan in the atx
- megan fox... pffffffffttt. my dreams are of Ken Rosenthal running around munchkinland.— Ryan
- We need to dupe the Jays like the Diamondbacks duped us with the Schilling trade. Travis Lee and Vincente Padilla, anyone? Who were the other two guys in that deal? My brain is drawing a blank... Yesterday, my kneejerk reaction was no to top prospects for Halladay, but now I am thinking prospects may be a small price to pay for a better chance at another parade or two.— Timmy
- Don't trade Drabeck, Taylor or Brown. But throw in everyone else. Having Holiday for two years would be worth it.— 76er
- A chance at anotehr title is worth giving guys who have not played. Potential is overated. Ask the Sixers in two years.— 76er
- Buchholz, meanwhile, allowed two runs on four hits and four walks in six innings and lowered his ERA to 2.11. Wouldn't that be an ERA of 3, thus RAISING his ERA to 2.11? Also, somebody said Halladay is probably better than Hamels? Cole is not close to this guy. This is a once in a decade opportunity to get a guy that we haven't had since Lefty.— smfree31
- 76er, make up your mind. Dont' trade taylor, brown or Drabek and don't hold prospects--seems to me you are sitting on the fence here. The obvious answer is go for now. For all we know Drabek injures his arm (again) and both Taylor and Brown break their legs. Go for known Cy Young winner over hopefull MLB pitcher.— fan_in_jerusalem
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