Will lack of major-league-ready talent hurt Phillies?
It is fun to dream, assuming you haven't ingested a substantial quantity of B vitamins before doing so. And right now, REM for Phillies fans brings images of Megan Fox and Roy Halladay. Unfortunately, at this point in time, both of them are still fantasies.
Will lack of major-league-ready talent hurt Phillies?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
It is fun to dream, assuming you haven't ingested a substantial quantity of B vitamins before doing so. And right now, REM for Phillies fans brings images of Megan Fox and Roy Halladay. Unfortunately, at this point in time, both of them are still fantasies.
Yesterday, we broke down what it might take to swing a deal with the Blue Jays for Halladay, the ace righthander who apparently available for trade.
Today, let's inject a little more reality to the situation, and start by taking a look at a Triple-A baseball game last night between the Pawtucket Red Sox and the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. The game featured both organization's most major-league ready pitching prospects. For the Red Sox, that meant Clay Buchholz, a 24-year-old righthander. For the Phillies, that meant Carlos Carrasco, a 22-year-old righthander.
Buchholz:
- Has already made 18 big league starts.
- Threw a no-hitter in his second big league game.
- Is considered one of the top prospects in the game, although he struggled mightily last season, posting an ERA of over 6.00 in 15 big league starts.
Carrasco:
- Has yet to make his big league debut.
- Is nearly a year younger than Buccholz was when he made his big league debut, but has also been far less consistent throughout the first five years of his career.
- Has has had some brilliant outings this season, he has also had some stinkers, and is currently 5-8 with a 5.06 ERA.
In the showdown between the PawSox and the LVIPigs, Carrasco allowed six runs on three hits and six walks in four innings. Buchholz, meanwhile, allowed two runs on four hits and four walks in six innings and lowered his ERA to 2.11.
The point I am trying to illustrate is that, regardless of how much the Phillies' minor league depth has improved over the past few years, they still could find themselves out-matched in a bidding war for the services of a player like Halladay. While they have plenty of talent at the lower levels of their system, they are also glaringly devoid of top-shelf major-league ready talent. Think about it -- with Raul Ibanez and Brett Myers on the disabled list, now should be the perfect time for a Phillies prospect to get his chance. Yet veteran Rodrigo Lopez got the call-up for the rotation, and Greg Dobbs is seeing significant action in left.
This is not in any way an indictment of the Phils' scouting department. Look at all of the home grown talent they currently have on the roster. But the fact remains, if the Blue Jays are looking for at least one player who can make an impact in the majors within the next year, the Phillies can't guarantee them much.
This is why their bid for C.C. Sabathia fell short last season. The Indians wanted a guy like Matt LaPorta, who was knocking on the door of the majors.
Will it hurt them again?
If the Red Sox and Yankees decide they want Halladay, it could. In addition to Buccholz, the Red Sox have 22-year-old righthander Michael Bowden, a marquee pitching prospect who is 3-4 with a 3.31 ERA at Triple-A Pawtucket. The Yankees, meanwhile, have pitching prospects Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, both of whom have big league experience (Kennedy has been sidelined for two months but is starting to work his way back from an aneurysm). The Yanks also have 22-year-old Austin Jackson, an outfielder who is hitting .317 with 14 stolen bases at Triple-A Scranton Wilkes Barre and is ranked No. 36 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list.
The good news is that the Yankees signed Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte to contracts this offseason, and the Red Sox already had so much pitching that they were rumored to be looking to deal some of it away (more good news is that both play with Toronto in the AL East, although that might not be a deal breaker).
The bad news is that they are the Yankees and the Red Sox, and just because the United States and the U.S.S.R. had more nuclear weapons than any one else in the world didn't stop them from trying to obtain more. Either team could overwhelm the Blue Jays with an offer that the Phillies simply can't match.
But if Toronto doesn't insist on major-league ready talent, or if their scouts like some of the Phillies talent that is close (Whether it is Carrasco or catcher Lou Marson or short stop Jason Donald), or if the Phillies can get creative and involve another club, a deal could get done.
I'd put the Phillies odds at landing Halladay better than they were at landing Sabathia last season. But, as I pointed out yesterday, I'd also put the asking price significantly higher.
Don't think sending Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Jason Donald north of the border for Halladay would be worth it? That might be the type of deal it would take. So keep that in mind.
There's no way I trade Taylor. Has anyone seen his stats?! From his sheer size to his average homeruns RBI even sb's. This guy is the real deal. Ibanez has been incredible but will be closing in on 40 soon. We need to think of the future just a tiny bit. And this guy is it. Utley Taylor Howard sounds good doesn't it? Keep the kid.— ILL-UH-DEL- The Phils need one more pitcher (and right-handed bat)ant that pitcher could be Drabek or Savery or Carasco. Look at what Happ did - look how what Gavin Floyd is bouncing back after a great rookie season. I would never give a pitcher - Donald % Brown is all and a player to be named later - Larry creep Bowa .. he's a jerk.— sportsdead
- For years after they won the Series in '03 the Angels refused to part with their "hot" minor league prospects for high-impact players on the trading block. Guys like Brandon Wood, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, Jeff Mathis, Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, Kendry Morales, etc were all considered among the best prospects in the game at their respective positions, and the Angels hung onto them because they didn't want to "mortgage the future." So you tell me which of the players on that list is now the equivalent of a perennial All-Star position player or #1 ace pitcher? The Angels became a regular 1st round sweep victim, usually by the Red Sox, who did trade away their best prospect (Hanley Ramirez) for a #1 Ace pitcher in Josh Beckett. Whose past 10 years would you rather have, the Angels or the Red Sox? That's where this team is.— ChrisInVT
- It's just not going to happen. He makes too much money and would require way too much in minor league talent. For the record, I would offer Drabek, Brown, Donald and Cloyd and see what happens.— Rick Wise Guy
- Kyle Kendrick is not a prospect...repeat...not a prospect. He won ML games with smoke and mirrors. Other teams aren't stupid. You have to give up legitimate talent to get legitimate talent in return. Look what the Flyers had to give up to get Pronger. Its a similar situation here.— toccheyhockey
- phillyinATL: as the owner of a red Corvette, I can tell you that it's worth every cent...LOL! What are you, a Prius owner? Getting Halladay could be the Carlton trade of this generation.— jimmymack
- If we don't make this deal and end up not getting a solid starter via trade, I don't want to hear all the naysayers complaining in late September when its obvious we have no prayer in the playoffs. What would be more fun: going into the playoffs with Hamels and Halladay as our 1-2 and having a strong chance to repeat, or seeing Drabek and Brown potentially become stars on a young 78 win team in six years?— toccheyhockey
- FIrst of all, Happ is not a prospect ready for the majors, he's a bona fide Big League pitcher right now!! You do not trade people from your current rotation to get a pitcher. You trade: Drabek, Jason Donald or Lou Marson, Andrew Carpenter, Player TBA (from your post yesterday). Why? because: Drabek may be as good as Hallady is or he may not be, but one thing is for sure: Halladay is definately as good as Halladay is. Go for the known. Donald is blocked for teh next 3 years in our organization unless he replaces Brunlett. I'll trade a reserve infielder without thinking twice. Marson may be a good catcher, but we have one of those already (Ruiz) and another one coming along in a few years. Carpenter is the same as Drabek, but not as good--ie: he may be a top of the rotation guy, he may not, but Halladay is right now! The only people you don't EVER trade are players on your current 25 man rotation and either Brown or Taylor, one of whom replaces Werth after next year when he goes FA.— fan_in_jerusalem
- After their early season spurt and then a fizzle and some injuries, the Cubs have been depending on several AAA players to keep then in the division race.— atp2007
- The Cubs play in the AAA NL central. Lehigh Valley could win that division— fan_in_jerusalem
- Does anyone really think Toronto would trade Halladay to Boston?Get real people.They will only trade him to an N.L. team.— tuck
- Anybody could see going into the year that we had holes in the rotation, and that was before myers got hurt. I wanted the Phillies to go after Derek Lowe, but it didn't happen. I would not trade our very best prospects (Taylor and Drabek) for Halladay, as much as I respect his talent and durability, but almost anyone else is fair game. Halladay gets us into the playoffs, and after that anything can happen, as we well know.— Carmine
- Carmine: We make the playoffs without Halladay. He gets us a repeat. Prospects are great to have, and more importantly to use to better the team. Are we a better team with drabek and Taylor in the minors or Halladay on the mound? Simple question, simple answer, simple solution— fan_in_jerusalem
- Don't the Blue Jays already have Alex Rios and Vernon Wells as their corner outfielders and locked up for over 100 mill over the next 5 years? Would they stil want Dom Borwn or Micheal Taylor and just try and flip them?— hegzatsc
- The Blue Jays don't have to do anything. They can sit there, and do all this again in a year. That's when the true pressure will be felt to deal Halladay. It's ashame for Toronto. They're in a situation much like the Sixers are in - they have to deal someone who's a content, and valuable asset, because they handed out mega deals that guys aren't playing up to (Wells mainly, but Rios as well). I'm with the guy touting Harang. He's a talented, filthy & durable Plan B! You should check Donald and Marson's stats, they've lost the "prospect" shine in their promotions to the Iron Pigs.
