Will lack of major-league-ready talent hurt Phillies?
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
Will lack of major-league-ready talent hurt Phillies?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
It is fun to dream, assuming you haven't ingested a substantial quantity of B vitamins before doing so. And right now, REM for Phillies fans brings images of Megan Fox and Roy Halladay. Unfortunately, at this point in time, both of them are still fantasies.
Yesterday, we broke down what it might take to swing a deal with the Blue Jays for Halladay, the ace righthander who apparently available for trade.
Today, let's inject a little more reality to the situation, and start by taking a look at a Triple-A baseball game last night between the Pawtucket Red Sox and the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. The game featured both organization's most major-league ready pitching prospects. For the Red Sox, that meant Clay Buchholz, a 24-year-old righthander. For the Phillies, that meant Carlos Carrasco, a 22-year-old righthander.
Buchholz:
- Has already made 18 big league starts.
- Threw a no-hitter in his second big league game.
- Is considered one of the top prospects in the game, although he struggled mightily last season, posting an ERA of over 6.00 in 15 big league starts.
Carrasco:
- Has yet to make his big league debut.
- Is nearly a year younger than Buccholz was when he made his big league debut, but has also been far less consistent throughout the first five years of his career.
- Has has had some brilliant outings this season, he has also had some stinkers, and is currently 5-8 with a 5.06 ERA.
In the showdown between the PawSox and the LVIPigs, Carrasco allowed six runs on three hits and six walks in four innings. Buchholz, meanwhile, allowed two runs on four hits and four walks in six innings and lowered his ERA to 2.11.
The point I am trying to illustrate is that, regardless of how much the Phillies' minor league depth has improved over the past few years, they still could find themselves out-matched in a bidding war for the services of a player like Halladay. While they have plenty of talent at the lower levels of their system, they are also glaringly devoid of top-shelf major-league ready talent. Think about it -- with Raul Ibanez and Brett Myers on the disabled list, now should be the perfect time for a Phillies prospect to get his chance. Yet veteran Rodrigo Lopez got the call-up for the rotation, and Greg Dobbs is seeing significant action in left.
This is not in any way an indictment of the Phils' scouting department. Look at all of the home grown talent they currently have on the roster. But the fact remains, if the Blue Jays are looking for at least one player who can make an impact in the majors within the next year, the Phillies can't guarantee them much.
This is why their bid for C.C. Sabathia fell short last season. The Indians wanted a guy like Matt LaPorta, who was knocking on the door of the majors.
Will it hurt them again?
If the Red Sox and Yankees decide they want Halladay, it could. In addition to Buccholz, the Red Sox have 22-year-old righthander Michael Bowden, a marquee pitching prospect who is 3-4 with a 3.31 ERA at Triple-A Pawtucket. The Yankees, meanwhile, have pitching prospects Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, both of whom have big league experience (Kennedy has been sidelined for two months but is starting to work his way back from an aneurysm). The Yanks also have 22-year-old Austin Jackson, an outfielder who is hitting .317 with 14 stolen bases at Triple-A Scranton Wilkes Barre and is ranked No. 36 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list.
The good news is that the Yankees signed Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte to contracts this offseason, and the Red Sox already had so much pitching that they were rumored to be looking to deal some of it away (more good news is that both play with Toronto in the AL East, although that might not be a deal breaker).
The bad news is that they are the Yankees and the Red Sox, and just because the United States and the U.S.S.R. had more nuclear weapons than any one else in the world didn't stop them from trying to obtain more. Either team could overwhelm the Blue Jays with an offer that the Phillies simply can't match.
But if Toronto doesn't insist on major-league ready talent, or if their scouts like some of the Phillies talent that is close (Whether it is Carrasco or catcher Lou Marson or short stop Jason Donald), or if the Phillies can get creative and involve another club, a deal could get done.
I'd put the Phillies odds at landing Halladay better than they were at landing Sabathia last season. But, as I pointed out yesterday, I'd also put the asking price significantly higher.
Don't think sending Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Jason Donald north of the border for Halladay would be worth it? That might be the type of deal it would take. So keep that in mind.
Buster Olney said this morning that the Phils are the front runner for Hallday, but it would take 3 top prospects, likely to include Drabek. I think I would still do it. However, one concern is that Steve Phillips said he may want a 5 year/$100 million extension, which I am not sure the Phillies would even entertain. So it may all be for naught..— Gary Varsho- No way the Phillies would give Halladay five years and $100 million. And I find it hard to believe anyone else would.
- I would give him a front loaded 5 yr 80-85 mill deal— Sillies
- DON'T TRADE MICHAEL TAYLOR!— maximusud
- Toronto is in a rebuilding mode and they owe Wells and Rios around 160 millions. So they need to move Halladay ASAP because they won’t be able to resign him. He will be easy to move than Wells and Rios, because there are not enough good pitchers available right now. Their most pressing needs are at catching, shortstop and infield corners positions. They also need a closer. That’s why I think Marson and Donald could be very attractive to them. They could also be willing to take Brown instead of Taylor, because they have Wells under contract for the next 5 years at 105 millions and he is struggling big time. He is on a pace to hit 16 Hrs and drive in 74 runs. Taylor is more major league ready than Brown by far so what are they going to do, keep him in Triple A, while they resolve the Wells situation? I don’t think they need pitching that badly. They have an ace in the making in Romero and another good rookie in Scott Richmond. They also have Marc Rzepczynski who went 19-11 with a 2.85 ERA combined A and AA in less than two seasons and is already with the big club. They also a few good young arms in Brett Cecil and David Purcey. They didn’t resign Burnett last year and are willing to trade Halladay. Maybe it’s because they think they have enough pitching.— EL Zorro
- What about a package of Brown, Carrasco, Donald, and Mayberry? Mayberry's ceiling is lower that Taylor, but he's more major league ready.— maximusud
Comment removed.- The Jays will NOT, repeat, will not trade him to another AL East team.— phairmount
- Halladay is one of the the best pitcher in the Majors and is probably better than Cole Hamels. He is a horse and I would give up 5-6 prospects for him - Happ, Donald, Kendrick, Marson, and Carrasco, for Halladay. Wahatevr it takes except Drabek. Throw in Taylor if need be, but we need Halladay now. This is a no-brainer. We have this year, 2010, and 2011 with most of our core players under contract. Do it Ruben!!— albanykey
- I couldn't agree more, I don't think it matters what the Red Sox offer, no GM in his right mind would take the chance of trading someone who could literally kill your team's chances by going to their #1 division rival. Give them whoever they want, Halladay is a proven commodity and is worth whatever the price.— beagle29
- DMurph, I like Halladay. A lot. He's insanely good. One name that I haven't heard mentioned in potential trades, however, is Aaron Harang. I was hoping, last night, that maybe he'd be pitching for some Phillies scouts. He's a solid #2, and the asking price may be significantly lower with Cinci. Any chance??— Philth
- Comment removed.
- I dont think the Jays need to trade him ASAP... they can wait a yr... but I say just blow them away with a deal now... give them Drabek, Taylor, Donald and someone else... Even if they want Happ you gotta do it... Happ is at best a #3.... they wont want a catcher as they have JP Arencibia who is their future guy so Marsen is out...— Sillies
- Murphy, yesterday's post was spot on. Today's, not so much. There are many factors that go into whether or not a player is called up - amount of playing time available in the MLB, the length of time the player is required, the amount of options left on a player, the starting of the arbitration "clock", etc. Why did David Price start the year in the minors? If you considered LaPorta "knocking on the door" last year - you have to consider Taylor in the same light this year. Hughes and Kennedy???? Are you joking? You can easily compare Hughes and Happ at this point in their careers. Kennedy? He has been a huge bust. Kyle Kendrick has more value than Kennedy at this point. The Phillies don't have the combination of high ranked prospect and significant MLB experience, like the Sox have with Bucholz. But, Drabek has proven to be an elite pitching prospect in AA. AA is "knocking on the door", to use your words. Throw in Marson & Donald and the Phillies have at least 5 prime MLB ready chips to deal. Name a trade that ever included 4 or 5 of an organizations top MLB ready prospects? It doesn't happen. There is a mix, just like your post from yesterday. Calm down and let the negotiations play out.— Charlie Mustgo
- Comment removed.
