Why the Phillies won't, and shouldn't, do anything drastic with Raul Ibanez
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Why the Phillies won't, and shouldn't, do anything drastic with Raul Ibanez
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Many members of the Phillies organization fancy Philadelphia a baseball town. They view these past few years of success as having restored some semblance of order to the sporting landscape, with the American past time back atop the depth chart and that new-fangled tackle football thing relegated to No. 2.
I will not argue them on this point, mostly because I do not have the energy. But whether Philadelphia is a baseball or hockey or soccer town, it still has a football mentality, and it shouldn't take a video clip of a toddler chugging a Miller Lite for people to realize this.
Over the last several weeks, I have received countless emails wondering when the Phillies will cut bait with Raul Ibanez, the veteran left fielder who as of today is hitting .246 with a meager .383 slugging percentage. People look at the Phillies' three-week-long slump and their current second-place standing and insist that now is the time to shake things up, to give Domonic Brown or John Mayberry Jr. or Ben Francisco a chance to do what Ibanez hasn't.
But it isn't going to happen. And it shouldn't happen.
1) It is EARLY
Twenty games might seem like a long time. And it would be, if we were talking about a season that lasts 16 games or 81 games or however many games are on a Major League Soccer schedule. But a baseball season is 162 games, which means the Phillies have struggled offensively for about 12 percent of their schedule. What is 12 percent of an NFL schedule? Roughly two games. If this were football, the Phillies would have struggled on offense for two consecutive games. It might not be an ideal situation, but it certainly isn't one that calls for a major shake-up.
At this point, change for the sake of change can do nothing but hurt the Phillies' chances for success in the long-run. It would be a panic move, and panic moves resonate throughout a clubhouse and an organization.
2) Ibanez has been here before
In 2007, Ibanez finished July hitting .253 with a .306 on base percentage, .695 OPS and six home runs.
In the final 55 games of that season, he hit .357 with a .423 OBP, 1.057 OPS and 15 home runs.
In his first 57 games of the 2008 season, Ibanez hit .264 with a .328 on base percentage, .777 OPS and eight home runs.
In his last 105 games, he hit .308 with a .373 OBP, .867 OPS and 15 home runs.
This year, Ibanez is hitting .246 with a .339 on base percentage, .722 OPS and three home runs through 57 games.
3) Ibanez is a No. 6 or No. 7 hitter
Keep in mind that when Jimmy Rollins is healthy, Shane Victorino is hitting in the bottom of the order. And even if Ibanez remains the poorest hitter in this line-up for the rest of the season, his numbers thus far are still better than Pedro Feliz's were in the two seasons he spent hitting No. 7 here in Philly. In those two years, Feliz combined to hit .259 with a .306 on base percentage, .699 OPS, and 26 home runs in 1005 at-bats.
Again, Ibanez's numbers thus far this season: 246 with a .339 on base percentage, .722 OPS and three home runs in 183 at-bats.
4) Ibanez is a smart hitter
Perhaps the most legitimate concern about Ibanez's performance thus far is his drop in power. And for this line-up to live up to its potential, it needs Ibanez to drive the ball. But even if his power remains diminished, he is a smart enough hitter to make do. He is near the top of the league in sacrifice flies. He is hitting .279 with a .403 on base percentage and .822 OPS with runners in scoring position. He has a .439 on base percentage when leading off an inning. He is 9-for-30 with three walks, one home run, and one triple in late-and-close situations.
5) He is coming off serious surgery, and he has shown signs of turning things around
Ibanez is making contact. Since and ugly April in which he struck out 16 times in 68 at-bats, he has struck out 16 times in 115 at-bats. He is hitting .261/.338/.409 during that time period. He has recorded plenty of hard outs over the last few weeks. In fact, since the Phillies' offensive slump began, he it hitting .262.
Again, those aren't great numbers. And his power numbers are still miniscule.
But you need to keep in mind that Ibanez is coming off a pretty significant injury to the most critical part of a hitter's body. He played through a ridiculous amount of pain last season. Mike Cameron, for example, has played in just seven games since being diagnosed with an abdominal injury in the third week of April.
While Ibanez looks healthy, and says that he feels healthy and strong, he spent the entire offseason rehabbing from his surgery. That means the normal strength, conditioning, flexibility and timing drills that usually filled his offseason were either eliminated or greatly tapered down.
That's not an excuse. That's just a fact.
6) There are no other options
Do not misconstrue this as an argument that Ibanez is destined to return to the player who carried the Phillies for the first two-plus months of last season. This is an argument that the prudent move is to give him plenty of time to turn things around. One of the basic tennets of economics is that a sunk cost is sunk, but there is no conclusive proof that Ibanez's contract, which runs through next season, is a sunk cost.
It is not as if the Phillies have a ferocious right-handed power bat languishing on the bench while Ibanez eats up playing time. Domonic Brown has played less than a season above Class A. You don't take a player like that and put him in a situation where he is expected to produce for a team that is hoping to advance to its third straight World Series. Forget about him right now. John Mayberry Jr. could well get an opportunity if the Phillies call him up prior to this weekend's interleague series in Boston. But even an outside addition would not force the Phillies to part with Ibanez.
You can argue that the Phillies should look for some insurance via trade. There figure to be plenty of options available. Even if Ibanez does revert to equillibrium, the Phillies wouldn't be ill-advised in adding another bat to their bench.
You can argue that if Ibanez is still struggling at the All-Star break, it might be time to think about giving another outfielder more regular work.
But any argument that the Phillies should just jettison a well-respected veteran with a long track record and a recent history of getting hot quick just because the Phillies have struggled offensively for the equivalent of two NFL games shows a lack of understanding of anything deeper than numbers and paper.
Ibanez is done. Let's face it, the Phils got lucky with him last year. It won't happen again. He's always been just an okay player.— GJK3161- I think the Phils need some energy that comes from a younger starting player. That's it. Better base runner, better outfielder, possibly better hitter. Plus, platooning Werth would not be a bad idea (although I guess if the Phils have an inkling to over pay for him, which I cam guessing they do not, then they might want to keep running him out there). So, call up both young players and let the corner outfielder platooning begin.— bobcitydoc
Very sensible, Murphy. Thanks for marshaling these arguments to support a point that should be obvious to most. That said, I would like to see Charlie give Francisco some more playing time, perhaps in both left and right. If he really can hit as Charlie says, he should be on the field more. If he can't hit, more playing time will let everyone draw the right conclusion about him.- Yep...the bench is a much worse situation and a much bigger worry. The options are pathetic. Those guys are terrible.— scootch
- Or Gload, Dobbs, Baez et al? Why not give that reliever at Lehigh a chance ? OK, keep Raul but next yr. bring up Dom and let him hit or not. Time there for a change and who is going to replace Jayson?? At least they drafted some pitchers and 3 catchers to help out there.— KGKoons
- Dull: could not agree with you more; Phillies need a spark which a younger player with great talent can provide. At the very least, Brown should be in triple AAA now, but the Phillies know they are stuck with Ibanez and do not want to start Brown's major-league clock. One factor Murphy overlooks: the end of the steroid age. Hard to project from past performance for a player like Ibanez who may or may not have performed well for years on the juice. Hopefully, he was and is clean and will start pounding the ball.— chuckw
- Phils should sign Jermaine Dye to a one year contract to platoon with Ibanez (Dye feasts on opposing lefties where the Phils are weak), spot Werth from time to time in right and leverage the Phils' position should Werth attempt to hold them up in free agency. Dye is one of the few big leaguers to have hit 25 or more homers in each of the last 5 years which speaks to his consistency. He is not a long term solution but would be an affordable addition in the short term and could help tide the team over next year if Werth walks. He's the solution to a number of needs and is there for the signing which means the Phils can keep what's left of their farm prospects. Oh and he can take the roster spot of Greg Dobbs whose play has reduced him to the answer to a trivia question.— Claudio Vernight
- Hey eagle1276, first off it's "you WOULDN'T mind seeing if Francisco can get hot", not WANTED mind. Second, there is also no guarantee that playing Francisco is the right move. Let the baseball people do their job. They don't write to you telling you how to do yours.— NVPhillyfan
- One reason Ibanez is still here: He's owed/stealing $15MM through 2011. If he was making what he was worth, they could cut bait and eat it. Great signing, if only he was older.— JodyMac
Comment removed.- Ibanez was awesome for the first 2 months of last season. He got a bad groin injury, and hasn't been the same since. Perhaps Montgomery is tired of eating parts of expensive(Thome, Eaton, Jenkins) contracts, but the Phils gave out plenty of extensions in the past offseason. If Amaro and Montgomery had been patient and creative, they could have avoided this situation(and Cliff Lee's). Perhaps you hold off on the Victorino or Howard extensions, and you work out a deal with a team like Anaheim, Boston, SF, or Chicago WS. Philly fans aren't dwelling on the past, they just want future mistakes to be avoided.— 76erfn
- Dull, that was back in the day when newspapers and the whole media industry were owned by real media people. Now, you see Disney, Comcast and ex political consultants controlling the business. I agree, Ibañez will be here for a while because he'll be hard to move, but that doesn't mean he has to play everyday, not matter how much money he's making. The Mets are thinking of moving Angel Pagan to one of the corner outfields when Beltran comes off the DL and sit Francouer, who btw, started playing better after the rumor started… And Ibañez has been struggling since June of last year. That's a about a whole season.— EL Zorro
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- And forget about bringing Brown or Mathieson any time soon. Under Charlie's and Dubee's regime young players seem to have a tough time or rough path to establishing themselves. As a matter of fact, the team keeps getting older via signing or trades (Moyer, Ibañez, Stairs, Polanco, Contreras, Baez, even Pedro). If not for Thome's injury, we probably would never had the chance to see Howard in pin stripes. Victorino and Werth were platoon players not long ago. Happ started as a reliever and Kendrick got beat by Moyer for 5th spot after pitching better than the 47-year old in ST. In the meantime, the Marlins gave ex Phillie Ronnnie Paulino a chance, who was traded because Charlie preferred the since released 36-year-old Chris Coste. They also called Chris Coghlan, who became rookie of the year last year. This year the Marlins have two rookies in the lineup, Gabe Sanchez and the just recalled Mike Stanton. 23-year-old Cameron Maybin was a starting outfielder before they called up Stanton. Atlanta gave 23-year-old Tommy Hanson a break last year, to go with 24-year-old Jair Jurjens in the rotation. Oh, 20-year-old phenom Jayson Heyward made the team out of ST. The Mets have Ike Davis playing 1st while 23-year-old Stephen Strasburg made his debut with the Nats after being selected with the first pick around this time a year ago to go along with fellow rookies Drew Storen, their first pick in the 2009 draft and Luis Atilano. Shorstop Ian Esmond (24) beat veteran Cristian Guzman for the starting job. Guzman is playing second base now. So there you have it. While the division gets younger, the Phillies seem to go backwards and this will not change, it looks, for at least a few years.— EL Zorro
