Why the Phillies probably won't sign Josh Hamilton, and why that probably is a good thing
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Why the Phillies probably won't sign Josh Hamilton, and why that probably is a good thing
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
We'll start with the caveats. The Phillies could have far more cash at their disposal than they are letting on. They could have an ownership group that is willing to risk four or five years on Josh Hamilton. They could be trigger-happy. Or the Rangers could just be claiming interest in retaining Hamilton out of politeness. But absent a significant extenuating circumstance, I simply cannot envision a scenario in which Hamilton signing with the Phillies makes sense.
Yesterday, Sports Radio 610 WIP reported that the Phillies have made the free agent slugger a three-year, $80 million offer. I have no reason to doubt the veracity of that information. In fact, it makes perfect sense.
What doesn't make sense is why the Rangers would not match that offer. The conventional wisdom at the winter meetings last week was that both sides would like their partnership to continue. Early in the free agent signing period, various national reports cited anonymous sources saying that Hamilton was looking for a contract of six or seven years, which led to the speculation that the Rangers might wave goodbye to their star slugger. But if Hamilton's best offer really is for three years at about $27 million per year, and if the Rangers really do want to retain him, then I have to think that they will.
My sense is that the Phillies made their best offer and put it on the table just in case the Rangers really have decided to move on from the player who helped turn their franchise around. Maybe this really does turn out to be the start of a negotiation, but it would require a huge risk on the Phillies part.
Here's why:
The Phillies know that the window for winning a World Series with this current crop of players is no longer than three years. Even with a player like Hamilton, it might only be two years. Between the money they saved last season, the new national television money they will receive, the increase in the luxury tax threshold next season, and the potential of a new local television deal within the next few years, the Phillies have money to spend.
So why not engage in bidding war for Hamilton? To me, 2016 is the key year. That would be the fourth year of any Hamilton deal. It's also the last year of Ryan Howard's contract. They'll be on the hook for $25 million in salary. Howard will be 36 years old. Hamilton will be 35 years old. Plenty of players have remained productive through those ages. But plenty have broken down. And what happens if both players' production suffers a significant drop off between now and then? You can certainly envision a situation in which the Phillies are paying $50 million to two broken down players. And that would be an excellent way to undermine whatever new core of players the Phillies have developed by that point in time.
The worst case scenario is for them to develop a new batch of players and then look at their payroll and say, "Gee, if only we had $50 million to spend on a couple of pieces that we think can push us over the top." Actually, the worst case scenario would involve a Cole Hamels breakdown too, leaving them with $73 million in dead money.
A three-year deal would make sense because the Phillies are built to win now. And if signing Josh Hamilton doesn't result in a World Series, well, they probably weren't going to win one anyway. But in a multi-year deal, every extra year carries with it the risk of disrupting the next window of contention. Which is why I think three years is likely the maximum the Phillies would go. And I'm not convinced that three years will get it done.
But again, I could be missing something.
Who hasn't spent a weekend smoking crack in Kensington? Come on, raise your hands!!!— CoettaGarner25- Yes, I think you are missing something. Any player the Phillies develop after this year (unless they have a super 2) will be prearbritration eligable until the Howard and Hamilton deals would come off the books. It is likely that a couple of other big salaries will be off the books (Doc, Chase) or at the very least not renewed at the current levels by then, just in case Ruf turns into a super star. If the Phillies can develope a couple of superstars by then the timing seem to be just right for the Phillies to take 50 some million off the books in 4 years.— Yellow Dog
- i have felt the phillies would end with hamilton for the past couple of months.....— malco49
- i have felt the phillies would end with hamilton for the past couple of months.....— malco49
- In other words it's going to take a 5 year deal so Texas doesn't match it and the Phillies should not sign Hamilton to a 5 year contract. My God that's all Murphy had to say.— rc1000
Isn't about time for Dave to go on vacation? That is when the Phillies usually do their best signings and trades.— Hazy- "...the window for winning a World Series with this current crop of players is no more than three years." Yes, but unfortunately we're about to enter Year 3 of that window; Year One, and really the best shot, was 2011, which is why all of this just seems like waiting for the dust to settle on that lost opportunity.— ijj
- What's wrong with Murphy? He actually makes sense today.— wo_fat
- no no no on Hamilton. I want nothing to do with him. he's a clubhouse cancer, the ultimate high maintenance player. and he's always hurt. has the dude ever played a complete season? sorry. Hamilton is not worth the trouble.— Ryan
- Howard is already "broken down". If they get Hamilton, good for us. Only a miracle will keep Utley and Howard viable this year - for the entire year. Both are/were great players but everything comes to an end.— billtfla
- Please, no Soriano. Please!— Bartleby
- Once again, after all the "experts" finish their yammering I'll expect the opposite to happen.— sjfella
- if that window is closing, hamilton,young would make a great screen...sign him tonite— lewisbratspis
- Not only does Hamilton bring us 35-45 hr, 125 rbi, but instantly makes everyone in the lineup around him better. Howard's ba & power nbrs would explode if batting in front of Hamilton. And that is why, despite the baggage, you do whatever it takes to bring him here. We really need this stud in our lineup.— rockinginthefreeworld
- could not agree more with this poster's reasons for getting Josh H. in here. What a way to ignite Howard's bat again, to get $25MM worth out of a guy who was feared throughout baseball just a few years ago, than to have him bat in front of Hamilton.
Everything changes the minute Josh signs here. EVERYTHING!— advantasux
