Why the Phillies probably won't sign Josh Hamilton, and why that probably is a good thing
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Why the Phillies probably won't sign Josh Hamilton, and why that probably is a good thing
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
We'll start with the caveats. The Phillies could have far more cash at their disposal than they are letting on. They could have an ownership group that is willing to risk four or five years on Josh Hamilton. They could be trigger-happy. Or the Rangers could just be claiming interest in retaining Hamilton out of politeness. But absent a significant extenuating circumstance, I simply cannot envision a scenario in which Hamilton signing with the Phillies makes sense.
Yesterday, Sports Radio 610 WIP reported that the Phillies have made the free agent slugger a three-year, $80 million offer. I have no reason to doubt the veracity of that information. In fact, it makes perfect sense.
What doesn't make sense is why the Rangers would not match that offer. The conventional wisdom at the winter meetings last week was that both sides would like their partnership to continue. Early in the free agent signing period, various national reports cited anonymous sources saying that Hamilton was looking for a contract of six or seven years, which led to the speculation that the Rangers might wave goodbye to their star slugger. But if Hamilton's best offer really is for three years at about $27 million per year, and if the Rangers really do want to retain him, then I have to think that they will.
My sense is that the Phillies made their best offer and put it on the table just in case the Rangers really have decided to move on from the player who helped turn their franchise around. Maybe this really does turn out to be the start of a negotiation, but it would require a huge risk on the Phillies part.
Here's why:
The Phillies know that the window for winning a World Series with this current crop of players is no longer than three years. Even with a player like Hamilton, it might only be two years. Between the money they saved last season, the new national television money they will receive, the increase in the luxury tax threshold next season, and the potential of a new local television deal within the next few years, the Phillies have money to spend.
So why not engage in bidding war for Hamilton? To me, 2016 is the key year. That would be the fourth year of any Hamilton deal. It's also the last year of Ryan Howard's contract. They'll be on the hook for $25 million in salary. Howard will be 36 years old. Hamilton will be 35 years old. Plenty of players have remained productive through those ages. But plenty have broken down. And what happens if both players' production suffers a significant drop off between now and then? You can certainly envision a situation in which the Phillies are paying $50 million to two broken down players. And that would be an excellent way to undermine whatever new core of players the Phillies have developed by that point in time.
The worst case scenario is for them to develop a new batch of players and then look at their payroll and say, "Gee, if only we had $50 million to spend on a couple of pieces that we think can push us over the top." Actually, the worst case scenario would involve a Cole Hamels breakdown too, leaving them with $73 million in dead money.
A three-year deal would make sense because the Phillies are built to win now. And if signing Josh Hamilton doesn't result in a World Series, well, they probably weren't going to win one anyway. But in a multi-year deal, every extra year carries with it the risk of disrupting the next window of contention. Which is why I think three years is likely the maximum the Phillies would go. And I'm not convinced that three years will get it done.
But again, I could be missing something.
- Imagine the fastballs RH would see with Revere on base and Hamilton on deck.
— rockinginthefreeworld - i didnt believe it would happen until i read this column.
by the way, the dodgers payroll is up to 225 million.— jim715 - What do they have now, an 8 or 9 man rotation? Seems like you could sneak in there and steal a pitcher or two and no one would notice. — s
- Most players pick at age 27 - 28 or are playing at a high level and most start to decline in their 30s. I would like for Murphy to come up with a list of players that have keep playing at a high level (AS, MVP candidates, etc.) that would justify been paid as if they were the top players in the league. Right now you could say Jeter (and he had a down year a year ago or so) falls into that category. Big Papi keeps putting good numbers, but he's a DH and also had a year or two when he struggled a bit. Other players, like Lance Berkman, Alfonso Soriano and Michael Young have one outstanding season preceded and/or followed by average seasons. Hamilton is a special player, but so was Ryan Howard, Mark Texeira and Vernom Wells at or before their 30th birthday. Hamilton probably saw his best years passs him by. If you add the baggage he's carrying, it's not worth the risk.— EL Zorro
- I hope they can sign him for 3 years. I like Hamilton, he hustles on every play. Then again, I also like pizzas.
Two problems:
1)we have terrible talent evaluators/scouts
2)we are stuck in a "win now" mode, which we have to sign high price free agents or costly trades
3)we need a GM
4)Manual=REID, Dubee=Morninweg
5)lack of urgent from some of the players
6)rule 5 drafts
Anyways, good luck to you Frandsen, hope you get a lot of playing time this up coming season not because of injuries to others, but because of you.
— Pepe LePew - Sure age is a concern El Zorro. Injuries takes longer to heal as we age, worn body parts, etc. But the successful ones have the desires/drives to prove themselves. Mostly tho, I think after 30, if players been playing for awhile before their 30's, they kinda lose that edge. Personally, i just think the adrenalin just ran low or not there any more.— Pepe LePew
- Nick Swisher is the better player overall. Cheaper and gives you more money to use elsewhere. Hamilton is a time bomb waiting to go off. Swisher strikes out a lot but is a switch hitter with a lot of power. Hamilton is another left hand hitter we are already too deep at.— ajkearney725
I'm generally not in favor of platooning. However, if you add up Brown's career stats vs RHP and Mayberry's vs LHP you get...
AB 657,H 173,2B 42,3b 3,HR 31,RBI 99,W 59,K 136 .263/324/478/802
And just for fun, last year they played a total of 1278 innings in the outfield and combined for 13 assists and 2 errors.
Brown $414K Eligible for Free Agency 2017
Mayberry $495K Eligible for free agency 2017— zubzub- sign me up as a supporter of platooning Brown and Mayberry, based on @zub's critical analysis of both. If the Phils don't do this and decide to make either of them an everyday player, that would be a very big mistake. Neither of them can go both ways. I think that's been established quite well by now. — advantasux
- The pull of those "Jonesing" ex-Rangers, the totally irrestible Philadelphia fan base (who could resist warbiscuit?) AND - a 4th year on his offer - will bring Josh Hamilton to us.— dwp66
- Soriano at 2 to 3 mil per year is a steal for this ballpark,....Soriano would lead the team in homeruns with at least 45 if not 50 and be second in RBI if Howard is healthy,....production for value on the dollar says Soriano is the tops, but he's a LF and that begs the bigger question,....is a Ruf-Mayberry platoon in RF enough to gitterdunn— SyddBarrett
- once again, old bubba/granny here must confess to being the dumbest dude around. past few days, two american league cf's have been traded for pitching: tampa got wil myers, who appears to be the second coming of mike trout, and shin-soo choo, who has one of the highest career obp's in baseball, found himself in cincy. we got ben revere. the rattle you hear is me shaking my head over why we got a guy with no pop whatsoever, who's got an obp that barely exceeds a linebacker's weight, when those other fellas were available. must be that ruben is sooo many steps ahead of me in his thinking.— bubba church & granny hamner
- just logging back in after several hours away (took the wife to the KOP Mall...yuccchhh!)
Anyway, @Bubba Church, I notice that no one dared challenge your position about all the CF that have changed hands this past month, including two that were moved in the past two days, and how our efforts (plus two good pitchers) amounted to the most feeble of all of them. Good fielder, yes, good base stealer, yes, can get on base a lot, yes, but once you bat him 8th, at least one part of this limited toolset goes out the window.— advantasux - NO TO HAMILTON AND NO TO SORIANO; GET ROSS OR CUDDYER AND PLAY RUF IN LEFT TILL HE FAILS— DONDEN31
- No to you. Yes to Hamilton. — Larry Brown
