Why Vance Worley for Justin Upton might make more sense
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Why Vance Worley for Justin Upton might make more sense
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
I just filed a column on this topic. You will be able to read it in the Philadelphia Daily News and on Philly.com on Wednesday.
Until then, meditate on this:
Now might be the perfect time to trade Vance Worley. Over at CSNPhilly.com, Jim Salisbury is reporting that the Phillies are willing to trade Worley and prospect Trevor May in the right deal. And that report makes a hell of a lot of sense. In early November I asked Ruben Amaro Jr. if it might make sense for the Phillies to deal a young, valuable pitcher like Worley in order to improve the lineup, and then worry about filling the void in the rotation via free agency. Amaro acknowledged the possibility (although, to be clear, he was not saying specifically that he would consider trading Worley. The question I posed was phrased as a hypothetical). And now might be the time to pursue it.
The market for position players is ridiculously overvalued right now. Shane Victorino at three years at $39 million (no offense, Shane), Angel Pagan at four years and $40 million, B.J. Upton at five years and $75 million. When Jonny Gomes is getting two years and $10 million, it is hard to imagine that there is value to be found anywhere.
The same might not be true on the pitching side of things. There are a lot more options, for one thing. The top of the market features Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez. But there are plenty of guys who could fill in for Worley at a reasonable price: Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Carl Pavano, Joe Saunders, and Kevin Correia. And, keep in mind, the Phillies have a pair of starters in Jonathan Pettibone and Adam Morgan who could be ready to get a shot at the major league level in 2013. Morgan, especially, is a guy to keep your eye on. One baseball person who saw him pitch mentioned Chris Capuano as a comparison. Maybe the Phillies even end up going after a guy like Carlos Villanueva, who could end up bolstering the bullpen if one of the young starters earns a spot in the rotation.
Point is, the Phillies clearly need to be taking the trade market seriously given the way the free agent market has unfolded. You read here earlier a rumor that the Phillies were talking about a Cliff Lee for Justin Upton swap. Amaro decimated that rumor, and I actually believe him. But I also do not believe that the Upton part of the rumor came from nowhere. And Worley might make sense as the major league tested pitching piece that would likely have to be involved in any Upton deal.
Everything that follows is PURE SPECULATION, but a package of Worley, May and one of Tommy Joseph/Sebastian Valle/Domonic Brown would make a lot of sense from the Phillies perspectice. I'm not sure about it from the Diamondbacks end of things. Maybe one of the catchers AND Brown?
Upton, by the way, is exactly NINE DAYS older than Brown.
Maybe Upton isn't the guy. Maybe Dexter Fowler is. Both have some red flags with regard to their home/road splits. Upton's OPS away from Chase Field has dropped from .862 to .790 to .767 to .670 since 2009. That being said, he has a .300/.344/.433 line in eight games at Citizens Bank Park. And Fowler's numbers are good at CBP too. The sample size is too small to affect any decisions. But the point is, a drastic home/road split doesn't mean a player won't end up hitting well in his new home.
Actually, the point is that the Phillies must pursue every potential angle to upgrade this team. And that might mean cashing in some chips that are easier to replace than center field and third base.
Agreed.
Period.
No reason to 'bloviate.'
I'd do it in a NY minute.
Won't happen.— 24sDad
The Diamondbacks won't do that. They want a major league ready position player (specifically a SS) in the deal along with pitching. I don't think Brown has much (if any) trade value remaining either.— Jeff Dowder- Other than the fact that Arizona would sell their team to Taiwan before giving away Upton for scraps, sounds great
- can we stop using the term "that being said"?— Handsome B. Wonderful
- that being said— wildgoose117
- Stik: I wouldn't consider Worley, May and Brown/Valle/Joseph "scraps." That's at least two and probably three players who would help the Snakes right away -- if they were interested, which we don't know.— Dave Clemens
- Handsome: Let's save a word and just say, "That said..."— Dave Clemens
- won't happen— Sam Crow
- Speculation is worthless sensationalism. Please just stick to facts.— Wes Hopkins
- Worley, Valle, Galvis adios
Then add Youk and Milke Adams...
Or preferably keep all the prospects till mid season, and sign HAMILTON for 5/125 with six year Phil's option NOW.
Team with Charlie needs more power. Add Hamilton, RUF , to Howard Ut, and Ruiz and we win the NL east— WFChamps - Is Justin Upton really that good??? Lee and money? No way. Worley and 3 prospects? No way. Are the Phillies this desperate?— hoyaray
- i will personally drive vance worley to arizona if we can do that deal...
now, what about a similar deal to boston for jacoby ellsbury? with victorino signed, ellsbury for pitching makes sense for boston.— jim715 - Agree with you guys. There's no way Amaro trades Lee at this point; doing so, with Halladay's health, would wave the white flag on 2013 before it even begins. Worley/Brown/Valle -- not enough for Upton. Worley's easy to like but could prove Blanton-esque. Brown, Valle -- gambles.
Interestingly, if it's Worley/May/Valle it may make more sense, presuming Arizona is short on pitching, which a lot of clubs are.
— eman - That's not nearly enough to get Upton.— conceptual_bro
- forget vic,,boston signed him,,,,that leaves hamilton,,or upton,,— hardball
- WORLEY,MAY AND D BROWN FOR UPTON IMMEDIATELY!!!!!!!!!— DONDEN31
- Worley/May/Valle/Galvis
four for 1 would get it done. Isit worth it?????— kdaddy72 - where i live, they call what's going on in these articles and the ensuing posts wanking. meaning it provides a momentary buzz, relieves boredom for a wee while, is actually quite a bit of fun, and costs nothing. sort of like trading baseball cards in the schoolyard at recess. trouble is, the real deal is left up to a character who has proved himself a genuine w___, um, a rather inept dealer of two-legged talent.— bubba church & granny hamner
- any trade ruben makes he will most likely get his pocket picked again so i rather he stand pat until he is fired— stayoutofphilly
- While I think a couple of trades would be the best way to get younger and add a bat, I don't think the Phils & J.Up are a good fit. For 38 million, 3-4 players/prospects to a get a 5 year player who hasn't reached his potential yet...ugly. Additionally, it makes no sense for the Phils regardless of money to trade a SP when 2/5 of your rotation was hurt last year. If we get rid of Lee and miss out on Grienke or Sanchez (neither of whom I would sign, who is the Phils #3, KK?
RAJ needs to get creative and re-target some of the mid-level guys from the regular season. I prefer a low-level prospect or two for a Ben Revere or Starling Marte and then spin them with some of the better minor league arms/prospects to work a 3 team trade get a real player. i.e.: Mark Trumbo, G. Stanton, C. Headley.
Avoid FA like the plague, wait till the dust settles from Hamilton and Greinke and then go to work. There is not one affordable player out there to sign who can offset what the Nats of done. Their rotation is set for 2013 & beyond even before Haren. The Braves are always going to have prospects to deal. The phils only strength is their pitching both in the Majors & Minors. Wait and go get a real up and coming difference maker after the New Years.— PhillyinBmore - I wonder how other GM's are viewing Worley's value. 2012 was not as good as his rookie year and it ends with elbow surgery. Not exactly the sort of season that puts a guy at his peak. He probably had higher value after 2011. I think every pitcher the Phillies have other than Hamels, Biddle and one of Pettibone/May can and should be considered for the right trade piece(s) in return.
Two young pitchers may do it for Arizona but I'm with eman -- it would probably take a third player as well.— s - onlu sure thing is Clueless Rube will get it wrong royally --strikes out on 98% of every move and siging he's made in 4 yrs --biggest imbecile to run a professinal sports franchise (makes Eagles mgmt look like geniuses by comparison)— warbiscuit
- Clueless Rube has no ability to make a trade for a genuine young talent because he already emptied the store and depleted the minors for such aging and/or long-gone busts like Halladay, Oswalt and Pence, and got back in return only useless trash for Victorino, Blanton, and Pence ... clueless Rube has dstroyed the franchise as Phils have nothing (other than a Hamels) and no ability to get better— warbiscuit
- Yeah, I read multiple places that the D-Backs specifically are looking for a starting SS in any trade involving Upton. That aside, the thought of Justin Upton is intriguing given his age and abilities. It doesn't solve CF, however. Unless you say that Mayberry will be your CF. Then, I'm not so sure. One thing I want to see though is Ruf given a long, long look in LF. This guy just "looks hitterish" and I think the Phils should give him the opportunity he deserves.— MrPhillie
- No talk of Galvis with Arizona wanting a young SS. Is he really that off limits or is he just under the radar or have no stock left with the suspension? Seems he'd at least be in the discussion. — s
- Does this guy get paid by the byline? That's the only thing that makes a "hell" of a lot of sense. If he's really in Nashville someone has to lock the room bar.— Mick40
- Arizona is already stacked with young arms. They want a stud SS in a trade for Upton. Worley's value not all that high.— craigmack
- Typical Murphy. Garbage in, garbage out.— wo_fat
- Please do not trade Lee for Upton. Lee is actually good.— bobcitydoc
- Shane Victorino got 13 million a year for 3 seasons?! The BoSox finally get some salary relief with the deal to the Dodgers and then go out and make this deal? Hamilton must be asking for the moon based on this deal.— Repubrebirth
- Jacoby Ellsbury is now available. Ruben was mumbling something about a left-handed bat to platoon in center with Mayberry in an interview on the MLB Network tonight. Boston needs a starting pitcher. Both Ellsbury and Kyle Kendrick will be free agents after the 2013 season.— Dull
- Buster Olney tweeted on a 4-team trade that got discussion today. Although it's like constructing an aircraft carrier from a kit here's what apparently was going down:
to the Diamondbacks:
SS Asdrubal Cabrera (from the Indians)
P Vance Worley (from the Phils)
P Philippe Aumont (from the Phils)
to the Indians:
P Tyler Skaggs (from the Dbacks)
P Jesse Biddle (from the Philsj
SS Freddy Galvis (from the Phils)
OF John Mayberry Jr. (from the Phils)
to the Phils:
RF Justin Upton (from the Dbacks)
P Chris Perez (from the Indians)
3B/1B Michael young (from the Rangers)
CF Leonys Martin (from the Rangers)
P Martin Perez (from the Rangers)
to the Rangers:
P Jeremy Horst (from the Phils)
P Raul Valdes (from the Phils)
P Trevor May (from the Phils)
C Lou Marson (from the Indians)— Claudio Vernight - Omg the Phils give up a TON in that deal, but in all honestly the only guys i'd really miss our Worley/Aumont and Biddle. I like Upton and Perez as both fill a big need. Michael Young is old but doesn't get seem to ever get hurt, had his 1st real down yr last year(hit .277 last yr .338 in 2011 .284 in 2010), is it a start of a downward trend to the .260's or can he get back over .280. Can Young still play 3b? I don't know anything about Leonys Martin and Martin Perez so someone needs to help me out. — Stephen45
- Biddle is the part of that I like the least. Probably followed by Galvis. But those are some strong names the Phillies get so you have to give up something. All except Martin Perez would be definite starters. The other Perez (Chris) has been vocal about the lack of fans in Cleveland so they probably want to ship him out. He's been closing -- could be a very strong 8th inning guy if he's fine with that role. — s
- this is an old post, delete it— eddiot
