Why Cliff Lee for Justin Upton would make sense. . .
The first out-of-the-blue rumor bomb just dropped here at the Opryland Hotel, with ESPN's Pedro Gomez reporting that the Phillies are discussing a trade that would send Cliff Lee to Arizona in exchange for Justin Upton.
Why Cliff Lee for Justin Upton would make sense. . .
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
UPDATE (5:20 p.m.): Ruben Amaro strongly denied the Lee-Upton report, saying "I don't comment on rumors but that one is absolutely and unequivocally false."
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The first out-of-the-blue rumor bomb just dropped here at the Opryland Hotel, with ESPN's Pedro Gomez reporting that the Phillies are discussing a trade that would send Cliff Lee to Arizona in exchange for Justin Upton. Keep in mind that this is still just a bit of gossip forwarded via Twitter, so we don't really have a good handle on how serious things might be.
Still, here is why it would make sense:
The free agent market is ridiculously pricey right now, with reports out of Boston that Shane Victorino has been offered somewhere around three years and 38 million. There simply are no bargains to be had. Even Jonny Gomes signed for two years and $10 million. I'll write more on this later, but I've been doing some crude Consumer Price Index type comparisons between contracts last year and contracts this year, and my current working estimate is that we're seeing between 40 and 50 percent inflation (Example: Cody Ross signed for one year and $3 million last year. Gomes' numbers are similar to Ross'. Gomes landed $5 million per year. That's a 40 percent 60 percent increase over what a similar player received last year in AAV).
At this point, teams are going to overpay at any end of the spectrum. The question is how much do they feel comfortable overpaying. I really get the sense that the Phillies are not in a position to be overpaying anybody. They need value. And Upton represents a value. He has three years and $38 million left on his contract in Arizona. Cliff Lee has three years and $87.5 million remaining. Clearly the Phillies would have to kick in some cash, or prospects, or both. But they'd be saving a ton and addressing a need by adding Upton, and the starting pitching market is one place where prices do not appear to be outlandish. At least there are some options. Like, for example, the Phillies could trade Lee for Upton and then go out and try to land a pitcher like Anibal Sanchez. Or, hell, maybe they make a late entrance into the Zack Greinke bidding. Regardless, pitching is a strength right now for the Phillies. Outfield is a weakness. The outfield market is overpriced. It could make sense to swap a strength to bolster a weakness and save some money to address their other areas of need. Look, Cliff Lee has been everything the Phillies hoped he would be when they signed him. But when they signed him they thought they had a championship caliber lineup. They clearly do not. And given the zaniness of the current market, Ruben Amaro Jr. and company just might have to audible.
Murph, The increase you used as an example from Ross's $3M to Gomes's $5M is a 66% increase. It still makes your point, though.— John621
I thought Arizona wanted to unload Upton to cut salary, so acquiring Cliff Lee makes no sense. Seems to me they would want just the prospects. Our rotation could be in pretty bad shape without Lee if Halladay doesn't bounce back and if Worley and KK are more like the 2012 versions and not the 2011 versions.- Arizona would likely try to flip Lee for a shortstop. Maybe Andrus from Texas. — BubbaChuck03
- With all the talk of Arizona wanting a young shortstop, is there any thought the Phillies would trade Galvis? — s
- Why not include more info about Upton in this article...most fans probably don't know much about Upton, does he hustle and play hard? does he have an attitude problem?...I guess we will have to google Upton since this writer didn't give the proper info in this article..like he should have.— jim35
- Not really sure what to make of this. It seems to me like they would be putting a lot of trust in Halladay coming back to form and then they would still need to sign a pitcher like Greinke or Sanchez like the article states. So by trading Lee, they save $48.5 mil minus whatever cash they would be kicking in, which translates to $16 mil a year minus the cash. Also, this does nothing to solve the Center Field position.— sjuhawk416
- Wow if Amaro trades Lee again he is an idiot. Bring back Pat Gillick please. Every year Amaro makes the team worse, and is spending almost double the money. He has no clue, he just loves the spot light. I can goon and on but I am sick of all this nonsense.— wildgreenman
- Jon Heymond just reported--Phils person in know said there is no truth to this rumour. Translation: don't get your hopes up people.— tothehouse
- Amaro says there are no such discussions. Sources from Arizona are saying the same thing...unfortunately.— BubbaChuck03
- I'd do it. Lee is a bust. I'm still mad at him for coughing up that 4 run lead in the NLDS against the Cards two years ago. That 2011 Team was absolutely incredible, and Lee denied them the WS they deserved— Ryan
- The salary dump would be attractive, but can the Phillies take the chance that Halladay will return to form if an injury-riddled season? And are Cliff Lee's rare talents (as a durable and reliable pitcher and hitter) worth losing in return for Upton whose numbers make him Shane Victorino, circa 2011 (albeit younger)? In other words, is giving up your (currently) second best pitcher worth in return 90-100 RBI per season with decent power or 60 RBI per season with little power. - and the rumor is that some cash reimbursement will go west with Lee rather than east with Upton.
I don't like it.
— wbramh - The real question is, what fool would pay Shane Victorino $13 million/year?!! That's just insane. I might sign him for $5 million/year. $3.5 million and incentives would be even better. The guy just isn't a premier player anymore.
— TexColorado - Dumping salary for run at Hamilton?— philly thug
- No. No. No. No. No.— fentonhardy
- Tell me when the ink is dry.— Rotcod
