Who is better for the Phillies: Halladay, Haren or Lee?
Good morning from Dolphins, err Pro Player, err Land Shark Stadium.
Who is better for the Phillies: Halladay, Haren or Lee?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Good morning from Dolphins, err Pro Player, err Land Shark Stadium.
Yesterday was Saturday, which is the one day a week in which the Daily News completely shuts down. We don't publish a paper on Sundays, because there are very few people in the streets on the Sabbath, and most of our circulation comes from news stand sales. So I tend to use Saturday to catch up on expenses, work on bigger-picture stories, and sit by the pool as the Atlantic rolls languidly in the backgorund. Saturday is also a good day to think, since my mind is not preoccupied with filing 1,600 words of copy for the newspaper.
Here is what I thought about yesterday:
1) I thought about attendance. As you may be aware, the Marlins broke ground on a new stadium in Little Havana yesterday. It was your typical celebration of athletic excess, complete with a little girl singing the Star-Spangled Banner and governor Charlie Crist addressing the crowd via taped video message, just in case anybody doubted that spending $480 million in public dollars was the American thing to do. That includes you, Miami-Dade teachers .
The stadium is being built under the rationale that the reason behind South Floridians' hesitation to attend Marlins games is not the variety of other recreational options available in the area, nor their overall distaste for the sport of baseball. Instead, the meager attendance is a direct result of playing in an un-airconditioned football stadium in the hot, wet Florida summers.
Now, up North we look down on the attendance at Marlins games. We snicker at the fact that a second-place team that has won two World Series in the last decade can't draw a respectable crowd for a key mid-season series against the defending World Champs.
But in snickering, we often forget the fact that the Phillies faced similar problems before Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004. I was curious about how the Marlins' struggles compared with the Phillies struggles, so I looked up attendance figures from 2001, when the Phillies spent much of the first-half in first place.
In 2001, the Phillies averaged 22,000 per home game.
In 2009, the Marlins are averaging 17,778.
What does this mean? I have no idea. Just thought I'd share.
2) I thought about Roy Halladay. And I wondered to myself whether the Blue Jays ace is really the Cat's Meow of this year's trade deadline. Ever since Toronto informed the World that Hallday was available, Phillies fans have ignored any other possibility for upgrading their rotation. The conventional wisdom is that the only way the Phillies can win another World Series is if they land Halladay.
Although I think the Phillies will make an aggressive play for Halladay, and I think that if they offer a package that includes J.A. Happ, Michael Taylor, Jason Donald and Jason Knapp, they just might land him, I also think there might be some other top-of-the-rotation options who might be better options - at least on paper - for a blockbuster trade.
Now, an important positive about Halladay is that he is definitely available. But let's assume that the two pitchers I am about to name become available. I'll make the case for each of the two, along with the case for Halladay. After I am done, tell me if you still think Halladay is the belle of the ball.
Dan Haren, RHP, Arizona: Haren is a league-low 1.96 ERA, and a league-high 138 innings. He is averaging 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings, and 1.2 walks. He is 28 years old, four years younger than Halladay. In his last three seasons, he is 41-22 with a 2.90 ERA. He is signed through 2012, with salaries of roughly $3.75 remaining for this season, $8.25 million for 2010, $12.75 million for 2011, $12.75 million for 2012, and a $15.5 million club option for 2013.
Cliff Lee, LHP, Indians: Lee has a 3.31 ERA in 20 starts, leads the American League with 136.0 innings, and is averaging 6.6 strikeouts per nine and 2.0 walks wer nine. In the last two seasons, he is 27-12 with a 2.83 ERA. Lee is owed roughly $2.75 million for the rest of this season, and has a $9 million option for 2010. Lee is 30, two years younger than Halladay.
Roy Halladay, RHP, Blue Jays: Halladay is 10-3 witha 2.85 ERA this year, averaging 7.8 strikeouts and 1.2 walks per nine. Over the last five years, he is 74-30 with a 3.05 ERA. He is owed roughly $7 million for the rest of this season and $15.75 million in 2010.
If I could pick one of these three pitchers to start Game 7 of the World Series, there is no doubt it would be Halladay. And there is no doubt that Halladay is the most available of the three. Arizona has made it clear that they have no intention of trading Haren. But like any team, I'm sure they would not hang up the phone if another GM broached the topic.
So here's my first question: If Haren was available, would Halladay still be your number one target? Haren is younger, and pitching better this season, and would cost significantly less this year and next year, which could provide flexibility to bolster the bullpen and the bench. And he is also controllable for the next four full seasons. Wouldn't that lessen the need to make Kyle Drabek untouchable? What if the Phillies really went for broke and offered an even sweeter deal for Haren than they are willing to offer for Halladay. What if they offered J.A. Happ AND Kyle Drabek, plus Michael Taylor, and Jason Donald, and a couple mid-level prospects.
Sure, it is a king's ransom. But would a rotation fronted by Haren, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton for the next two years, and Haren and Hamels for the next three, plus the financial flexibility the Phillies would have to make other moves, make it a better move than acquiring Halladay?
And what about Lee? Although it would still cost a pretty penny to acquire, what if the Phillies could do so without trading Happ? What if a package of Michael Taylor, Jason Knapp and Jason Donald could get it done? Would a rotation that includes Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and Jamie Moyer for the next two years make it worth it?
To the Dan Haren situation, I say yes. To the Cliff Lee situation, I say no.
The Phillies probably won't even have these options. But like I said, it is what I think about on Saturdays.
The Phillies are about to trade their most effective pitcher. That makes sense. The guy has the best away game era in the league and he's about to be traded. That makes sense.... AZ is not trading Haren. So forget about that. The Jays want a lot more than the Phillies can offer, even if Happ is offered up. Cliff Lee? Why would the Indians want to get rid of him? That leaves one name out there of a lefthander who WILL be gone before the deadline. Eric Bedard. He appears to be over his latest injury. When he's on, there's none better. He ought to come cheap if the Mariners lose a couple of more games and fall back in the AL West. A lot cheaper than the other alternatives and importantly the Phils wouldn't have to give up their most effective starter. Hamels, Blanton, and Happ are a pretty effective trio. Bedard would be a nice complement to that trio.— jp
Comment removed.
The more Haap pitches, the better he gets. Another great performance today...getting back to the trade, I think Haren is the better choice. He is absolutely dominating right now and has to be considered the front runner for the NL Cy Young Award. Talent wise, he is right there with Halladay. Neither pitcher has enough playoff experience to make a complete judgement on how they will perform in the playoffs, so again, it's a tossup. All things considered, you have to go w/ the younger pitcher with the more desireable contract..As tough as it might be, I would trade Drabek before Haap. By trading Drabek, the Phils are getting back the pitcher they HOPE Drabek can be someday. If the mentality is to win now, then you leave Haap in the rotation because he is proving to be a winner...with a starting rotation of Hamels, Haren, Blanton, Haap & Moyer(with Pedro waiting in the wings), the Phils will make opposing batters quake in their boots...GO PHILLIES!!!- Comment removed.
- unless we can steal Halladay like the Muts stold Santana I say no to any trade involving Drabek,Brown,Taylor.— youwish
- Trungy - I am a fan of all Philly teams but don't compare the Flyers with the Phillies or Eagles. Eagles games are no place to take a family because a lot of people go there to get drunk - period. Flyers games are too over priced. I can go to three or four Phillies games for the price of on Flyers game. It isn't the fan base it is the price of the ticket or the quality of life going to a game. Sixers games are fine and they make it cheaper with all the extras they add to get you to a game. Look outside the bos.— ajkearney
- How about this one...J.A. Happ should stay with the phillies...He will be the number 2 starter behind Hamels next year based on talent, determination, and smarts. Fine, all for getting any one of those three but not with a package that includes Happ.— SCB
- i was high on happ before coming into this year. what does he have to do to prove himself? consider the year he is having why not trade hammels for halladay also? there are a lot of people i would trade for halladay in the minor league but i want to keep happ. i see something in this kid i like. KEEP HAPP!!!!!!!— atimelost
- AS MUCH AS I HATE TO AGREE WITH DAVID, HAREN IS MY CHOICE ALSO. I WOULD LOVE TO KEEP HAPP TO REPLACE MOYER WHEN HE FINALLY CRASHES AND BURNS, BUT HAREN IS TOO GOOD TO PASS UP IF WE CAN GET HIM.— DONDEN31
- The argument that Toronto wants a Chase Utley style player rather than Drabek or Happ is absurd; the Blue Jays need to dump salary, such as Halladay, Rolen, Wells &c and rebuild with young talent, lots of it. The Phillies do have the talent in their system, including Happ, Drabek, Brown, Taylor, to get Halladay. I do not think they need to make a move destroying a future nucleus for a 32 year old soon to be free agent pitcher changing leagues. If they make such a move and Halladay goes down or is ineffective in a new league, then what? Right now, they have Happ and possibly Pedro and can bring up Carrasco, Savery, and Drabek for the stretch run. They are running away with the NL East and Hamels has yet to pitch well. The possible NL playoff teams are San Fran, Colorado, Chicago, the Brewers, the Cubs, the Dodgers,and Houston, any of which the Phillies can handle as presently constituted. Keep in mind as well, Baseball is a business and the ownership group, whether we like them or not, wants to be competitive for years to come, emulating the Eagles (again, like it or not). Cleaning out the farm system is not the best way to accomplish that task, unless they are willing to spend a fortune (which I doubt) on high-priced free agents, much like the Yankees (and how well has that worked for the Yankees?). No doubt all of us would like to see Halladay or Haren or even Lee in a Phillies uniform, but the price must not be exorbitant, IMHO.— chuckw
- Sorry, I said Chicago and the Cubs (one and the same, of course). All those posters who note that Haren is not being offered, at least not publicly, are correct. BUT the Diamondbacks stink; they are the second worst team in the NL behind the lamentable Nationals, even worst than the Pirates. They have few chips to trade, with Haren the most desirable. How long will he wish to be with that organization? How many years before the Diamondbacks can even compete with the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies without making a significant trade? That is the question their ownership needs to ponder and Haren himself needs to ponder.— chuckw
- Trungy - The Flyers were BAD 3 seasons ago, get a clue.— BobbyD
- Comment removed.
- JA Happ has done this for half of a year. Calm down. He is 4th/5th starter. He doesn't have an outpitch or oustanding velocity or outstanding command or control. He will regress back to a 4.1-4.4 era. Of course the Blue Jays front office is also keenly aware of this so I doubt he'll be part of the trade. He doesn't strikeout enough hitters or induce enough groundballs to sustain his success. Also, no "Chase Utley Caliber" player is getting traded. He is one of the 3 or 4 most valuable players in the majors right now. Not enough is said about just how great he really is and I hope everyone will stop an appreciate that he is right there with Mauer Longoria Pujols and HanRam as the most valuable players in baseball.— Either/Or
- Jon Garland???????????? No thanks!— scars73
