Victorino's power potential
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Victorino's power potential
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Earlier this spring, I asked Charlie Manuel if he'd be surprised if at some point in the near future Shane Victorino rattles off a season in which he hits 20, 25 home runs.
"I wouldn't be surprised at all," he responded, "because he has that kind of strength."
Look, nobody will ever confuse Victorino with Albert Pujols. And the Phillies would gladly take a season in which he hits .300 and reaches base in 36 percent of his plate appearances over a season in which he hits .250 with 25 home runs. But Victorino also isn't your typical diminuitive, speedy, contact-hitting, gold-glove center fielder. He's listed at 5-foot-9, 180 pounds, but he has a thick lower base, and is almost all muscle.
Problem is, over the last couple of seasons, he has been hitting in a spot in the line-up where making contact and reaching base and hitting to the proper side of the field are far more important than driving in runs. Which is part of the reason why the Phillies went out and signed Placido Polanco this offseason. Sure, Polanco is expected to significantly upgrade the two-hole. But Victorino's upgrade of the No. 6 or No. 7 hole could be just as important.
I broke down some numbers yesterday, comparing Victorino's production when hitting sixth or seventh compared with his production hitting first or second.
First, though, a few qualifiers:
1) Victorino is expected to enter the season hitting seventh, after Raul Ibanez and before Carlos Ruiz. But I wouldn't be surprised if he and Ibanez eventually flip-flop those spots. Victorino has plenty of experience hitting sixth, and it actually might make more sense to have Ibanez's power in the seven hole and Victorino's speed in the six-hole. That would present the possibility of Ibanez coming to the plate with two adept baserunners on in Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino.
2) I noted earlier that it wouldn't be a surprise to see Victorino spend some time leading off this season. This, of course, depends on how Jimmy Rollins performed. We broke this scenario down further in a previous blog post, so feel free to look back on that. Victorino went 3-for-3 yesterday in the leadoff spot. But Rollins has had a very good spring.
Anyway, here are Victorino's numbers when hitting first or second (top), compared with his numbers when hitting sixth or seventh (bottom):
ABs/HR
Top: 57.2
Bottom: 28.2
PAs/RBI
Top: 11.7
Bottom: 9.9
So over the course of his career, Victorino hits home runs twice as frequently when hitting at the bottom of the line-up as he does when hitting at the top.
The numbers also back up the Phillies' belief that a move down in the order will result in Victorino being placed into situations that are more suited to his skill set. Rather than worrying about moving Jimmy Rollins from first-to-third, or reaching base for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, the Phillies think he will find himself in more situations where he is asked to drive in players like Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez.
In an attempt to compare the situations faced by a normal Phillies No. 2 hitter and a normal Phillies No. 7 hitter, I looked at Pedro Feliz's numbers from last year, and compared them to Victorino's. The initial plan is for Victorino to replace Feliz at No. 7.
Anyway, here are those numbers.
Overall Plate Apperances
Feliz: 625
Victorino: 694
PAs w/ runners in scoring position
Feliz: 159
Victorino: 161
PAs w/ bases empty
Feliz: 350
Victorino: 431
PAs leading off an inning
Feliz: 130
Victorino: 138
A slightly higher percentage of Feliz's total PAs came with runners in scoring positions and leading off an inning.
Of course, Victorino will likely have fewer plate appearances than he would have had when batting second. So, to a certain extent, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Love it Murph... Love it! With Shayne batting 6th, Ibanez could see more RH relievers as well!— BammBamm- The Mariners just announced they are shutting Cliff Lee down for five days in hopes his strained abdomen heals, making it likely the 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner will begin his debut season in Seattle on the disabled list. This is why Halladay is a major upgrade over Lee, who refused to picth on 3 days in the World Series. Lee is a primma donna who wants his money. Halladay is a man. Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/wires/03/26/2010.ap.bba.mariners.lee.0128/#ixzz0jIkQjIUU Get a free NFL Team Jacket and Tee with SI Subscription— albanykey
- Come on Charlie.... Wills and Gilliam. Brock and Flood. You remember them. Scored lots of runs for LAD's and Cards. Capitalize on Victorino's and Rollin's speed. Platoon them at lead-off. Some odd day when you're against an opposing starter who has been owning one of them, that guy bats 7th or 8th. Most days they BOTH bat at the top of the order ahead of Polly, Chase 4th, Ryan 5th, then the rest. First-inning baserunners puts pressure on opposing pitcher and defense; first-inning runs takes pressure off your own starter. Guys who can beat out an infield hit or a bunt, who can even take first on a past-ball 3rd strike, who can steal a bag, or tag second to third on a fly to right, or can score from first on a double, or tag and score from third on a shallow fly, belong at the TOP of your order, with more chances to get on, not at the botttom with less chances. Use their speed Charlie.
Comment removed.- Got to agree with Exiled's wisdom.— Delaware Jim
- albanykey, you're a dope; Lee never "refused to pitch on 3 days rest"; as for Halladay, he's never even pitched in the playoffs let alone on 3 days rest. Don't post garbage that is untrue; makes you look like a mental lightweight.— JBinPA
- Albanykey majored in bogus logic at St Rose, graduated with honors, went to work for GuvPatt and the rest is history. When the Guv goes to see Stevie Wonder, the key man waves . Nowhere in his resume is there any indication that he knows anything about Cliff Lee, who remains a gentleman and a super athlete. Stay up there and follow Siena, leave Philly to the real fans.— mick314
How can the guv go to SEE Stevie Wonder?— tpizza
