Vance Worley will take it -- the Phillies line-up won't
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Vance Worley will take it -- the Phillies line-up won't
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Two notes this morning:
1) Vance Worley struck out six batters last night, all of them on called third strikes. In spring training, we wrote about Worley's ridiculous ratio of called strikes last season. Well, his ratio is even more ridiculous this season. After last night's performance -- his third outing of 6+ innings and 1- run, by the way -- Worley has recorded 67 percent of his 27 strikeouts on called third strikes.
That puts him at the top of the league, which is where he finished last year:
% of strikeouts looking, NL starters
1. Vance Worley, PHI - 67
2. James McDonald, PIT - 50
3. Kyle Lohse, STL - 50
4. Chris Capuano, LAD - 50
5. Ross Detwiler, WSN - 47
Worley also ranks first in the percentage of his strikes that are called strikes:
% Called Strikes/Total Strikes, NL starters
1. Vance Worley, PHI - 38
2. Erik Bedard, PIT - 37
3. Trevor Cahill, ARI - 35
4. Kyle Lohse, STL - 35
5. Joe Blanton, PHI - 34
The Phillies will face Cahill this afternoon as they try to win their first series in Arizona since 2009. Which brings us to our next topic...
2) The Phillies line-up doesn't take many strikes. Actually, it doesn't take many pitches, period. Phillies hitters have seen an average of 3.66 pitchers per plate appearance this season, the lowest average in the NL. They have swung at 48 percent of the pitches they have seen, the second-highest ratio in the NL. If the Phillies' approach sometimes feels formulaic -- take the first pitch, just because, and then release the hounds -- the numbers support that notion. They've swung at only 23 percent of first pitches this season, tied for 14th in the NL. But after the first pitch, they aren't exactly discerning. In fact, as you can see in the table below, Phillies hitters see three-ball counts less often than any other team in the league. And when they do get a three-ball count, they take ball four less often than all but one other team. In both cases, the team next to them in the standings is the Pirates, which is also the only team that has scored less runs than them. Coincidence? You decide.
|
Rk |
Team |
G |
3-Ball % |
3-Ball Walk % |
TPA |
3-Ball Counts |
BB |
|
1 |
NYM |
17 |
24.38% |
42.95% |
640 |
156 |
67 |
|
2 |
ARI |
18 |
24.33% |
37.80% |
674 |
164 |
62 |
|
3 |
HOU |
18 |
22.24% |
44.03% |
715 |
159 |
70 |
|
4 |
LAD |
18 |
21.40% |
45.83% |
673 |
144 |
66 |
|
5 |
SDP |
18 |
21.32% |
50.00% |
666 |
142 |
71 |
|
6 |
STL |
18 |
21.00% |
42.18% |
700 |
147 |
62 |
|
7 |
WSN |
17 |
20.79% |
48.91% |
659 |
137 |
67 |
|
8 |
MIL |
18 |
20.61% |
38.97% |
660 |
136 |
53 |
|
9 |
ATL |
18 |
20.17% |
43.17% |
689 |
139 |
60 |
|
NL |
TOT |
276 |
19.76% |
43.02% |
10473 |
2069 |
890 |
|
10 |
COL |
16 |
19.44% |
39.83% |
607 |
118 |
47 |
|
11 |
MIA |
15 |
19.06% |
42.48% |
593 |
113 |
48 |
|
12 |
CHC |
18 |
16.97% |
41.96% |
660 |
112 |
47 |
|
13 |
SFG |
16 |
16.69% |
46.36% |
659 |
110 |
51 |
|
14 |
CIN |
17 |
16.64% |
50.00% |
661 |
110 |
55 |
|
15 |
PIT |
16 |
15.47% |
34.88% |
556 |
86 |
30 |
|
16 |
PHI |
18 |
14.52% |
35.42% |
661 |
96 |
34 |
So many things affect how many pitches a team takes. I would no doubt throw more strikes at this lineup than at the Yankees. Robinson Cano is a notorious early count swinger. Chase Utley is not. If you are gonna bat .300 I guarantee that nobody will care how many pitches you see.
I do wish that our guys would spend more time on situational hitting; understanding the situation and the likelihood that they are gonna get a good pitch. Always drives me nuts when Ryan Howard hacks at an 0-2 slider away, because he was sure that the pitcher would lay one down the middle. Funny.
These days, with the rise in popularity of the cutter and the split finger change, it makes it difficult for a hitter to recognize the pitch coming out of the pitchers hand. Use of video has also helped the pitchers make sure their arm position is the same. So basically, the hitter has 0.4 seconds to get the bat across the plate. Today most hitters are guess hitters. And it's no coincidence that many of today's .300 hitters are also power hitters. They are strong enough to adjust their swing as they are swinging.
Like MMAC said, once we get some pop in the lineup, we will see more pitches. Meanwhile, I hope they guess right.— zubzub
"A guy like Pierre works the count most of the time and he has good avg and OBP to show that patience and plate discipline can be a good thing."
No, no he does not have a good OBP. He might for us right now, but that's a function of small sample size. His career OBP is bad. Terrible considering his only true skill is speed, so he should try to always be on base.
Also, the Phillies should take more pitches certainly. But watching strike two instead of swinging at it doesn't necessarily help. I don't doubt that they've been swinging at plenty of stuff out of the zone, but how about pulling up how many of those swings have been on stuff IN the zone. That data exists these days.
— RHCP182- RHCP - Pierre's career OBP is not great, but it is higher than any of the active Phils. Only Howard and Utley are higher. Sad but true.
My thing with Pierre is this ... His numbers are a bit misleading. When he steals a base he makes up for being a light hitter; essentially turning a single into a double. But when he gets caught stealing (or picked off) he makes an out. If you adjust his numbers to include the outs he makes on the bases, his numbers look like this ....268/.309 career ....278/.304 this season.
But a hit is a hit. It could still drive in a run. That's why I said "a bit misleading". Still think he was a good addition. But I hope his contribution later this year comes off the bench, and we end up with a bigger bat in left (Mayberry/Brown/someone else?)
— zubzub - Anybody read Moneyball? We are the opposite of that team philosophy. Charlie is the equivalent of Art Howe in that story, a veteran baseball man who does things the way they've always been done. Amaro's speech before the season was pure Billy Beane; too bad he didn't follow through and make sure the team "got it".— philharmonic55
The "hitting guru" needs to stop cheer leading and step in— attila- Murph - Are pitchers just not fearing these hitters and throwing them more strikes???— stanbro
- @stanbro...the opposite is what's happening....word gets around very quickly. Why would you throw Howard or Vic or Pence a strike to hit if you didn't have to knowing they'd swing at anything? They are swinging and k'ing on pitches out of the strike zone with regularity.
@zub...you are correct on many points, especially the part about today's hitters being guess hitters. The frustrating thing is, you have to stop guessing when you have 2 strikes, protect the plate and cut down on your swing. The very things we all were taught in Little League. There's a reason Lance Berkman hits over .300 with power/rbis and most of our guys don't. I've spoken with him about hitting and he guesses too but only on the 1st and maybe sometimes on the 2nd strike. After that it's back to the Little League approach. More balls in play, more hits, higher average. That's the same approach most all of the Cards took last year and what McGwire taught them to do was have a plan before you go up there.
@philharmonic...a Moneyball speech is nice and it works if you have Moneyball players to put on the field. The Phils don't. Pierre was brought in, but no other players really fit the mold. How can you expect different results?
@bear, as usual you are right on with your comments, too.
@Nmlawyer, you are correct, that is why this Phils team won't win much.
@zub, I'll take 10 Pierres on my team if they all hit singles and all get more total hits in a season than any Phillie player just as Pierre did last season playing for the Chisox. 26 hits more than any Phillie!!!!! And he was considered washed up? What does that say about our starting 8?— Mark1npt - Mark- Great post. Thanks. But don't get carried away with Pierre. 7 Phillies had higher OBP and 3 had higher BA. Pierre did have 711 plate Appearances which is like a gazillion more than any Phillie had. That's before you throw in the "caught stealing" like I mentioned. 17 !! thats 17 outs. The Phillies starting eight were caught just twelve times. I'll take 8 Berkmans to your Pierres. :) :) Good to see people talking about baseball !! — zubzub
- These are good facts that have some clear meaning. Ruben did not put the right team together for this season and Charlie won't do much to change what the players have always done. He and Gross are completely worthless as far as disciplining hitters. I wonder if they even know these stats or are oblivious to them, either way it will likely continue. I like Pence but he doesn't seem to get it either. He's as bad or worse than any of them in this regard. Weak hitters with weak coaching.— Ballgame
- Yes I just checked the latest stats, and Jayson Werth is #2 in NL right now in Pitches per Plate Appearence @ 4.71— kilo_005
- I knew they weren't going to change. They gotten worse because the talent has gotten worse. If anything Manuel's philosophy is to keep hacking because the hits will come.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- in 2008/2009, the Phils and Yanks took the most pitches and worked the counts. It's worse every year.
Pitchers have 10 pitch innings regularly, no stress. Really bad. Ruben needs to tell Gross to get it done— WFChamps - Honestly who didn't laugh at Amaro's comments about a bunch of veterans changing their approach at the plate? Talk is talk, he didn't go out and sign anyone who actually fits that mold. When they got knocked out by the Cards last year, it looked so obvious that there was a clubhouse mandate to take the first pitch to try and work the count. Then they went out one after another and watched 1st pitch meatballs for strike 1 and wound up flailing at garbage in the dirt with 2 strikes. I see more of the same this year. There's so much more to "working the count" than just blindly taking the first pitch strike or ball. Unfortunately, they don't have the GM, the manager, the hitting coach or the players to do something about it. Instead, they'll just hold out hope that Howard and Utley come back and start hitting 3-run homers like the good ol' days
- This is a great story of the Phils pressing and just bad at-bats which is Gross's fault. The patient hitters are all gone right now due to injury (utley) or just gone,Burrell,Werth etc. More discipline at the plate will result in more baserunners which results in more runs. Stop swinging for the fences and work the count and it wil GET RESULTS...PERIOD— Trot
- They clearly didn't respond when Amaro asked them to hit like professionals- well he asked them to change, but it isn't clear he understands what he wanted them to change to since he acquired hitters that fit in with the Phillies' faulty way of doing things. I noticed this for several years. There was something to that sign stealing bit because it doesn't look like players such as Howard, Victorino, and Rollins can adjust on the fly. It looks like they decide before the pitch whether they will swing or not and pitchers have been smart enough to use that against them.— jtj10
